The ESPN hit tracker estimate of 432' is reasonable. That's still very impressive, especially for a HR hit down the line. Based on their charts, the ball hit the stands approximately 370 ft from home plate. See here: http://hittrackeronline.com/hrdetail.php?id=2017_3747 31 degree elevation angle is too high to get a 450 ft HR. Most of the 450+ ft HRs have a launch angle closer about 5 degrees lower. Note that many of the statcast estimates are BS...for instance that Broxton HR in St. Louis was something like 50 ft overestimated compared to the ESPN hit tracker (which is far more accurate than statcast because the methodology is better).