owbc
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Everything posted by owbc
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Damn, I completely forgot about the sweep suits. That was 16 years ago! -
Finally some good fortune this inning!
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I've been advocating for years that tennis-style replays are the way to go with a limited number (5) of reviews per team per game. Goal should be to weed out the really bad calls but still allow some human element (such as rewarding a hot pitcher for consistently hitting the corners). Each review should take no more than 15-20 seconds. Hitter or pitcher calls for review (has to be immediate and can't be called from the dugout), umpire points to the press box, someone presses a button, and the pitch f/x animation plays on the scoreboard. Alternatively, the stadium experience would be really interesting with the full 'pitch tracker/gameday' interface available to fans on the scoreboard. Under that scenario, humans could still call balls/strikes but the scoreboard could automatically overturn any egregiously bad calls. If the pitch is right on the corner, the right course of action may be to default to the human anyway based on the uncertainty in the pitch tracking.
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With all the recent talk about trading for pieces that will be around for a couple years, I started to wonder what our current expectations are for 2018. It seems like some regression might be expected from some of this year's key pieces, but more prospects will be coming up to fill in some of the gaps. The long-term plan a few months ago seemed to assume that the Brewers would not be a serious contender until 2019 at the earliest (maybe .500 in 2018?). It seems that there are two paths to take here. If we trade for pieces in the next 2 weeks that are only controllable through 2018, it would signal that the plan has been adjusted to assume a competitive team in 2018. Alternatively, they could trade for two-month rentals (Neshek) that would allow for a push this year without making any effort to strengthen the 2018 roster. Players with longer-term control might help this year and in the future, but would come at a more significant cost. So, have your expectations for 2018 changed over the past few months?
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5 1/2 game lead was not sustainable based on the talent gap between the Brewers and Cubs. Still think the Brewers can hold the division into September though.
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Love having Orlando near the bottom of the lineup. Big two-out RISP hit there.
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I disagree. 1. Small sample, but the visiting team is 7-3 in the single-elimination WC games. 2. Disadvantage in subsequent starting pitching matchups because of wild card game. 3. Dominance of LA this year. They are on pace to win 111 games. The wild card games are just trouble all around. They need to be avoided. Imagine dropping two of them in a row like the Pirates did in 2014 and 2015.
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A wild card spot is only marginally better than missing the playoffs entirely. An immediate 50% chance of elimination in one game, followed by a short 5-game series against the #1 seed (Kershaw x2). The odds of advancing to the NLCS in that scenario are under 10%, maybe under 5%. A division title and a first-round matchup against the Nationals would have considerably higher odds of making the NLCS, perhaps as high as 40%. So you definitely take the all-or-nothing approach this year.
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I want Schwarber off the Cubs. He's 24. He's probably going to have a huge age 26 or 27 season like Travis Shaw is having. Perfect fit for an AL team. Schwarber at age 24: .178/.300/.394 Aaron Judge at age 24: .179/.263/.345
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There is strong evidence for the juiced ball hypothesis. Hitters also appear to be catching up to the explosion of statistical analysis that initially benefited pitching and defense. They are getting feedback on things like launch angle and exit velocity now. The obvious solution to those pesky defensive shifts is to just hit it over all their heads. Any PEDs being used now are completely different from the 90s ones, and they tend to be more useful for things like injury recovery than hitting HRs. I'm not concerned about it at all. As for HRs, Manfred has noted that fans like to see home runs. I agree, I like the juiced ball to be honest. But I would like to see fences get moved back a bit which would increase the number of doubles and triples at the expense of HRs. It would also make speed and baserunning more valuable. I'm also looking forward to the pitch clock next season which should chop 20-30 minutes off the game time if implemented the same as the minors.
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When you have a roster full of under-performing players, some of the motivation has to be just to give them a spark to show that management is still fully invested in winning in 2017. The timing is a plus also, the Cubs' narrative going into the second half has completely changed now. We'll know in a month if the Cubs' struggles run deeper than a 3-month slump. I suspect they will continue to have bigger issues, but if the Brewers collapse we can at least know that our success forced the Cubs to trade away their top prospects and potentially shorten their competitive window.
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It's a desperation move for the Cubs, but we all know this is probably going to be the spark that gets them going. The Brewers absolutely should not pay a similar price for a different starter to match this deal.
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All you need to know about ESPN is that the Yankees are 1 spot ahead of the Brewers in this week's power rankings.
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Can't let Judge beat us. Give him the Bonds treatment.
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Might be getting ahead of things but I love that potential divisional round matchup with the Nationals while the Dodgers are stuck facing one of their talented NL West rivals.
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Thanks for this comment. It's clear from the numbers that Ed Sedar (and every other MLB coach) is actually way too conservative. It's obvious if you think about it. The chance of scoring a runner on 3rd with 2 outs is about 30%. The odds of scoring a runner on 3rd with one out is about 70%. Obviously there is also some dependence on the game situation, but the windmill coach success rate is clearly way too high.
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Fivethirtyeight now has the Brewers and Cubs with equal playoff odds, 50% to make the playoffs and 40% to win the division!
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This might be the game that makes the Brewers the NL Central favorites.
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It definitely is important. The Cubs appeared to be picking up some momentum in the last week and the Brewers are sending quite a message so far today.
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Not much fun to be a lefty against this lineup.
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Lots of nice ABs so far today, even some of the ones ending in strikeouts.
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I don't buy it. I think Sedar is at least an average 3B coach. The 3B coach is one of those roles that people love to hate because the mistakes are highly visible. Usually the "evidence" is circumstantial and based on the eye test. The only evidence I can find against Sedar is that the Brewers are bottom-10 in MLB in outs at home plate (12), but the league average is 9 so it's not like this is an epidemic. Plus the Brewers are in general a very good baserunning team, making the 4th least outs on the bases overall (not including CS). And they are in the top-10 in stealing percentage. Not to say this team hasn't had some very bad baserunning years (2013 and 2016). But it's not the case in 2017.
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When I see ticket offers like this, I can't help but think that they will only appeal to a certain segment of loyal fan/bargain hunter that doesn't really need courting. If we are going to give tickets away at less than $5 per game, the marketing should target families and lower-income groups. Most of that potential market will never be aware of these kind of offers.
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Mission accomplished.
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I like the odds of the HR hitting picking up again with the hot summer weather. I'll take 13-12, 2-2 vs. the Cubs. One game back of the Cubs going into August.
