SI was wrong on 6 out of its 8 playoff predictions last year. The Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins, Oakland A's, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, and Cincinnati Reds were all forecasted to make the playoffs. Out of ESPN's 50 or so baseball writers (there are too many on the page to count), not a single one had either the Cardinals or the Rangers in the World Series. The "experts" are going to take the safe pick almost every time. The Brewers are somewhat of a bold choice, the small market stigma doesn't disappear overnight and they did lose a future Hall of Famer. But besides Kotsay, it will hurt to lose Prince also. The Cardinals are getting the irrational defending champs bump--I personally think they will finish 4th or lower. The Reds had a down year in 2011 and are a sexy pick for a rebound. The Brewers' 96 win season was not overachieving in my opinion. If they didn't have a tough interleague schedule or a disaster on the left side of the infield, they would have won 100. Of course, it really all came together late in the season and a number of players had excellent or career seasons. You can't always expect that. But I think most people who closely follow the Brewers would consider 84-86 wins to be an underachievement this year. A modest regression is more likely--but far from certain. Also--the most important factor--it is hard to anticipate deadline deals--and the K-Rod pickup was an important addition since the bullpen was having problems blowing games. Furcal made a huge difference for the Cardinals as well in 2011.