owbc
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Everything posted by owbc
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Just did a quick read of Animal Farm--struck a chord considering the current events. Also reading more David McCullough--the Johnstown Flood was great and The Path Between the Seas is off to a very interesting start. The failed French Panama Canal is am amazing story. Definitely adding "Nothing to Envy" to my "to-read" list based on the comments here :-)
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I thought UW had very few open jump shots last night relative to the Ohio State game. Purdue chose to defend the perimeter and let Jon Leuer beat them. The Badgers might have survived if Leuer didn't have to go to the bench with foul trouble because Purdue didn't have an answer for him. Besides, it is extremely difficult to win at Mackey and they put up a good fight. UW will beat Purdue if they meet in the B10 tourney. As for a first round exit, that sounds like another one of those familiar Wisconsin comments that comes up every year but never happens. Bo Ryan is 8-1 in the round of 64. The Badgers will be a 3-5 seed and are unlikely to lose. How far they can conceivable go really depends on their bracket draw, which has been bad the last few years by most standards. The Sweet 16 is probably a reasonable expectation but you never know if Taylor gets hot (or conversely if they have a cold shooting night against a team that rebounds well). I think Marquette still has a good chance at the tourney--they have an easy schedule going out and 4 more wins should get them in.
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I'm considering MLB.tv this year. Is a 12 mbps wi-fi connection fast enough? I can usually get ESPN3 to work but sometimes it has problems. Does anyone else have a similar comparison?
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I like the Iron Gym but you need to make sure you have the right kind of door frame for it. I can do about 12 reverse grip pullups and maybe 7-8 with the front grip.
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Marquette and St. John's looked like teams headed in the opposite direction.
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I use legalsounds.com. It has legal right in the name http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif. It's only $0.09/song and they have a great selection. I have spent about $100 on that site with no problems. They are legal in Russia. The legality has never been challenged in the US, but I think it would probably be ruled illegal. Until a lawsuit is filed, I think there is no risk of legal action from using those sites. You do have to give them your credit card information which is the only "risk". I think the minimum that you can add is $20 on legal sounds, but that is enough for about 25 albums (with the free bonus songs), as opposed to 2 albums with iTunes.
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2011 Brewers Breakout and Disappointing Players of the Year
owbc replied to Jofis11ep's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Breakout: Fielder--he's going to have a monster season and the biggest statistical improvement of anyone on the offense. Weeks will be close behind...and this offense has Braun also? Wow. Disappointment: Greinke--expecting a solid season with an ERA of around 3.50, but not the CC Sabathia impact that some might be expecting. My 2010 pick, McGehee, will have another solid season as well. -
The fuel injectors went on my car. Yeah, it has 143,000 miles, but they should last for the life of the car. It's a $1,000 repair to have them replaced--1/4 the value of the car.
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Most of the options for expansion are too small. Only Montreal and NY/NJ are big enough to support an MLB franchise under the current financial system. Otherwise it just doesn't make sense to expand--the large markets will have to subsidize 2 more small market teams. If a salary cap is implemented, then I could see other cities like Portland, Buffalo, Indianapolis, or San Antonio as viable other options. The NFL could put a team in Nebraska and turn a profit, but the small markets in MLB need more help before expansion can be an option. Plus, there are other teams caught in perpetual losing cycles with declining fan support--Cleveland and Baltimore have leases expiring in the early 2020s and little hope of winning anything for at least the next 5 years. If the next CBA is unfavorable to the small markets and the economy stagnates, there could easily be 5+ MLB teams in trouble by the end of the decade.
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I think it would be best for baseball to move the Rays to Brooklyn, NY. The Yankees and Mets would throw a fit, but they could stay in the AL East and create a huge geographic rivalry with the Yankees and Red Sox. Tampa Bay has shown that it isn't much of a sports town (several NFL crowds around 40,000 this year!). The new Brooklyn team can be marketed as the anti-Yankees--still a large payroll but somewhat reasonable ticket prices, fan/family-friendly, etc. Yeah, it's far-fetched, but with the economy the way it is, I can't envision any baseball team relocating in the next ten years.
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Random MLB news that is pointless to say anywhere else thread
owbc replied to Principessa21's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The PECOTA people need to check their code. I think last season's result has been emphasized too much or they forgot to factor in trades/signings or something. If I wanted a prediction of the same 8 teams as last year making the playoffs I would have watched ESPN. Here are the projections compared with last year for wins. Notice that the 2011 projected standings are entirely in the same order as 2010 except for NY and TB switching and Milwaukee/Houston switching. The other 26 teams are all projected to finish in the same slot as last year. Philadelphia Phillies +3 Atlanta Braves 0 Florida Marlins +1 New York Mets 0 Washington Nationals 0 Central Cincinnati Reds +2 St. Louis Cardinals -1 Houston Astros 0 Milwaukee Brewers -2 Chicago Cubs -5 Pittsburgh Pirates +2 West San Francisco Giants +1 San Diego Padres 0 Colorado Rockies -6 Los Angeles Dodgers -1 Arizona Diamondbacks +2 American League East New York Yankees +5 Tampa Bay Rays +2 Boston Red Sox 0 Toronto Blue Jays -2 Baltimore Orioles -4 Central Minnesota Twins +1 Chicago White Sox +1 Detroit Tigers +1 Cleveland Indians +2 Kansas City Royals +2 West Texas Rangers +1 Oakland A's +1 Los Angeles Angels -2 Seattle Mariners +1 How can 25 out of the 30 teams finish within 2 wins of last year? Just terrible. -
I thought the Eminem Chrysler commercial was the best of the year. My wife suggested that Lady Gaga should do the halftime show. I think she would be a great choice because she is a skilled performer and will come with added press/entertainment value. As a general rule, the halftime show should feature an act that has a broad appeal, especially to the people who do not usually watch football games.
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The south is overrated. I could sit here now bragging about how nice the weather is, but honestly it is still too warm for comfort about 1/3 of the time, even in the middle of winter. The summer here is essentially a reverse winter--5 months of obnoxiously hot and humid weather--dew points in the 70s to even over 80 at times--to warm to do anything outside without being uncomfortable. That doesn't even mention the inevitable hurricane that will eventually wipe Miami off the map--as much as I love hurricanes I would not desire a direct hit. So there's really only a slight advantage weather-wise in that we don't have to drive in snow. Then there's the traffic and the rude/selfish/arrogant people that live down here. I really like graduate school and doing research and I'm glad I took the risk to come down here, but we will never complain about the cold again when we inevitably move back somewhere colder.
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No worries, it is still in the 80s in Florida. Somehow Florida has been immune to the abnormal cold over the last month. We actually had to close the windows and turn on the A/C today.
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I considered that theory but it isn't consistent with other perennially dominant schools. Indiana continues to draw big crowds despite several down years. Other schools like Texas, Duke, UNC, Kentucky, Louisville never seem to have problems with a lethargic fan base like UW is seeing this year--and really it is a trend going back 3-4 years now.
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And that's the ultimate conflict in the fan base. You can see with the half-empty student section and all the yellow shirts at the Minnesota game that some people are getting bored with it. But at the same time, the consistency and the winning are unparalleled in Wisconsin basketball history. They are probably the #2 team in the Big Ten again this year. I highly doubt Bo is going to change or even feel any pressure to change his ways--at least as long as the attendance line keeps saying 17,230 every night.
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They've always had at least 1-2 explosive/athletic players on the team. Yes, Jarmusz isn't that good. I'm sure he would be out of the game if there was a suitable replacement. Wisconsin players show some of the best progression year-to-year of any college basketball team in the nation. The reason we are puzzled with Evans and Wilson is because we are so used to seeing constant improvement. Every year I see comments like: "The Badgers are going to be in trouble next year because of recruiting...". It never is the case. Gasser and Berggren will play more important roles next year. Ryan Evans still has time. It would be nice if Wisconsin could advance farther in the tournament. But Marquette has the same problem--the class with Matthews and James never made the Sweet-16. The Marquette comparisons really bother me anyway because the Badgers continue to beat Marquette. This year's Badgers are #1 in the nation in fewest turnovers and #1 in free throw percentage. They play great defense--even better than usual. They haven't really gotten blown out at all this year, which has happened in the past with Bo Ryan teams. The main problem is that the Bo Ryan style does not translate well in road games/neutral court games. It works amazingly well at home because opposing teams in college basketball tend to rush play and throw up quick shots, which is exactly what Bo wants them to do.
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Lots of lightning being reported in northern Illinois. Should be headed right toward Milwaukee by midnight.
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Sorry Patrick425, I accidentally erased your post when I was trying to write a response! Patrick had a great observation based on the current radar image--the lake effect snow is heavier over the inland counties than over Milwaukee today. This is likely caused by the orographic effect of the Kettle Moraine/higher elevation over Waukesha compared to Milwaukee. The surface winds are being forced upward, which enhances the lift and hence the precipitation. Another reason is that this is a different kind of lake effect snow than eastern WI usually experiences. This is known as a "parallel band" lake effect snow, which can be seen by the numerous parallel bands in the lake effect snow. The second kind of lake effect snow is called a "convergence band" and is usually focused in one heavy band as opposed to many light bands. The parallel bands are weaker and vertically shorter than the convergence band, so the parallel bands are more sensitive to the effect of the hills to aid lift (rising air and moisture are the two main ingredients to make snowflakes). Conversely, the convergence band generates its lift from a "land breeze" effect where air flows from higher pressure over cold land to lower pressure over the warmer lake (on both sides of the lake), creating one band in the middle of the lake that occassionally will drift on shore with a NNE wind. When air converges at the surface, it is forced upward, so the orographic effect of land is not as obvious.
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Just an absolute monster--headed straight for WI. http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/g13.2011032.1715_smUS_wv.jpg
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All the info you need is here. The snow started a little early which I believe is due to added moisture from the lake that was not predicted by the models. This is all bonus on top of the earlier forecasted amounts. The model-forecasted start of the snow is right on schedule coming up from Northern Illinois right now.
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http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/snowaccum/SnowMap_MKX.png Here is proof that I am not making up those numbers. Just an unprecedented snowstorm--and especially amazing because it is not even a direct hit (although the models continue to trend in that direction)
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This storm is drawing comparisons to the January 1-3, 1999 storm that shut down Milwaukee for a few days. I think the airport got about 16" in that one although it was tough to tell because of the wind. NWS Milwaukee has reluctant to draw a map of snowfall accumulations, but here is my best guess. Racine/Kenosha: 18-24 inches, up to 30" in isolated areas (depends on how much Lake Effect) Milwaukee/Ozaukee: 16-24 inches Janesville/Waukesha/Beaver Dam/Sheboyban: 12-20 inches Madison area: 8-14 inches, higher totals south/east Lake Winnebago area: 6-12 inches About 2/3 of the snow will fall on Tuesday night. Do not plan to drive anywhere on Wednesday. The rest will fall over the next 48 hours. Exact snowfall accumulations will be difficult to measure, since gale force winds are anticipated. This will be a fluffy snow and 4-8 foot drifts will be common. Of course the temperature will then drop below 0 on Wednesday night, but fortunately it will recover quickly.
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Took a quick look at this storm. This one is going to paint a 12-18" band of snow about 250 miles wide stretching from Missouri to Maine. Strong high over North Dakota will create a nice pressure gradient. Lots of energy at upper levels. Abnormally cold temperatures for a panhandle hook storm will crank up the lake effect. This will start as a long duration light snow event--don't get fooled, it will start soft and then hit hard at the end when the surface low arrives. It will go for 48 hours in some spots along the lake. The only problem--one of the major models still sends the storm south and only gives Milwaukee 6" of snow or so. While that is still a decent amount of snow, this one has the potential to break records. So stay tuned.
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Maybe Cashman is trying to deflect blame in advance. This is the first time in many years that the Yankees are not one of the top-5 teams in baseball going into the season. They had a terrible offseason. He's making it known now that it's not his fault and getting public opinion in his favor for when the fallout happens. Levine is just saying what most Yankees fans already believe--although it if was true, he wouldn't have to say anything. Every time a mid-market team calls out the Yankees as an example of the broken financial system, it is important for the Yankees to quickly respond--to quell any anti-Yankee sentiment before it gains momentum. It's even more important with the CBA expiring. The current luxury taxes are a joke--it's not enough to help the small market teams that are trying to compete and it's pocketed by bad owners like Loria and Glass. I'm not a Red Sox fan, but it will be fun to watch them dominate the Yankees this year.
