owbc
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Everything posted by owbc
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Why is the rent number surprising? Most Americans live paycheck-to-paycheck and almost everyone who lost their job was renting. They don’t have any savings. They need to hold onto their remaining money to spend on essentials. The unemployment claims amount to over 1/3 of the total number of rental units in the US so the numbers work out.
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Just wait for the effects of this to cascade through the economy. Currently everything is being held together by short-term fixes and the assumption that things can return to normal quickly. Air travel is down 96%. How long is it going to be before travel even gets back to 50% of normal? They just announced a record drop in retail. 31% of Americans didn't pay rent at the start of April...how many will be able to afford rent in May? June? What will landlords do without rental income? Virtually everyone is preparing for massive budget cuts. This is happening at my university, it is happening behind the scenes at every corporation in America. Most of us lucky enough to be employed are going to see pay cuts at some point later in 2020 or 2021. Which will then further ripple through retail, travel, etc.
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Washington and CA governors Inslee and Newsom are the ones who have the biggest say over how we're going to come out of this since those are the first two states to have successfully slowed this thing down. It's a tricky proposition because everyone is desperate to go do stuff. I don't know a single person in my social circles in Seattle who got a confirmed case of coronavirus (although likely some were asymptomatic and others thought they might have had it in February). So it will just spread like wildfire again if they open stuff up too soon. You have to start by reopening parks and outdoor spaces, maybe open some restaurants for outdoor seating while keeping people 6 ft apart at tables. And they really need to open nonessential businesses with the same social distancing restrictions that grocery stores have. Do that around mid-April and wait another month until mid-May to make sure the case count doesn't start going up too much again. And anyone who comes through the airport will have to quarantine for 2 weeks. For opening larger gatherings like weddings, etc, they are going to have to be taking people's temperature and doing randomize testing to isolate the positives. There's no way around that.
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Why would you think something like an oil supply crisis would happen? Trump filled the US oil reserves to the absolute tops couple weeks back or so when the oil prices were thought to be a great discount...one even better today. Here's where the economy will take a freefall, supply and demand with ongoing employment. I seen a Meier post early today letting customers be aware prices for many goods will be noticeably higher as we stay shut down. The last example which I remember was given eggs will have higher pricing. The millions of people that are or will be collecting unemployment, a reduced income that will end up purchasing less than what you could purchase with that same amount a week ago. It'll be a rippling effect. Food or clothing. Answer Food. Effect-say good bye to Kohl's in WI. Effect-jobs Lost. Effect-Unemployment increase. Effect-Market worsens. You get where this is trending. It'll only get worse when the money people get during this isn't saved and used for bills and rent. When that happens the housing market will take a bigger hit when mortgages are falling behind. But we'll see, what does the gov't do to slow that scenario? How long do we choose flattening the curve vs an economy slowly in ruins? The oil industry is about to crash. There's nowhere to store what's coming out of the ground. You can't just turn off a well and turn it back on again. Companies will fail and the drilling capacity will plunge. When demand eventually increases prices will skyrocket.
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What isn't baked into the stock prices is the reverberations of this initial shock wave. When those dominoes start to fall it will get really, really ugly and the government will have already exhausted any means of stopping it. And if the economy does try and get back on track, other problems will emerge such as an oil supply crisis. It might take the entire decade to get out of this.
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I'm a couple episodes into Tiger King and starting to get bored. There better be more plot twists. The entire last episode could have been covered in about 10 minutes. That said, you couldn't write these characters.
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I'm a couple episodes into Tiger King and starting to get bored. There better be more plot twists. The entire last episode could have been covered in about 10 minutes. That said, you couldn't write these characters.
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There’s no way out of this now. This is on the scale of 9/11. The economic hit is going to be massive and it is going to take years to get out of the hole.
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Coronavirus has been going around Seattle for weeks. I’ve talked to several people who probably had it in February but there hasn’t been any testing yet. Expect to see hundreds of confirmed cases in the next week as widespread testing ramps up. Many of the school closures and work from home directives just went out this evening. Say what you want about whether it is dangerous or not but there’s going to be a huge hit to the economy...at least in the short term.
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I'm not very invested in this particular SCF but you can bet I'll have my eyes on a game 7.
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I was excited to see that Angels & Airwaves is back and their new single seems like classic Tom DeLonge. A few established indie rock favorites have new albums out--Andrew Bird and Local Natives. Some great tracks on both.
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Robinhood makes money by routing orders to high frequency trading firms so the idea is to make it as easy as possible to do trades since that's how they make money. The amount that gets skimmed off of each trade is minuscule, so as long as you aren't trading constantly every day it probably is a small price to pay for having 'free' transactions.
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It's kind of crazy how the Capitals were the underdog coming into this series. Nobody (outside of Vegas) wants the Knights to win, especially since they are going up against one of the longest suffering hockey fan bases.
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It's sad. Hockey could be #1 in sports headlines right now but instead the headline is for racist fans. I can't imagine how any league would turn down the free publicity of the Olympics, likely worth tens of millions of dollars or more, but here we are.
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AirBNB has been great from a vacation perspective...I've had a blast staying in people's vacation homes all over the place. I can't imagine why I would ever want to own a vacation/investment property when you can pay to stay in a different on every time, and they are often way nicer than anything I would ever be able to afford. But if you do own one, you can rent it out when you aren't there and it can potentially pay for itself or return a profit. I know someone making her entire salary via AirBNB.
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Thanks Jeets! -
I'm thinking about buying some crypto for fun if Bitcoin goes below $10K. Agreed that it is best for play money...extremely dangerous for serious investment although a few have obviously gotten lucky. The most ridiculous thing about the crypto fad is how terrible it is for the environment. Governments are going to need to do something to discourage mining.
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It doesn't get said much but Wisconsin is a great basketball state. Interest in college basketball is much higher than most places. Lots of quality talent generated from the high school level. Hockey, in contrast, has never really caught on in Wisconsin. Maybe not having an NHL team is a part of that, but there simply are way less kids playing hockey in Wisconsin compared with neighboring states. Only 18,000 kids in youth hockey in WI compared with 50,000 in Michigan and 57,000 in Minnesota. Even Illinois has more. Obviously there are many dedicated hockey fans in the state, but an NHL team would have major work to do in order to increase hockey interest from casual sports fans.
