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owbc

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Everything posted by owbc

  1. owbc
    $11 million to a career .199 hitter over 2800 PAs Wow. 37% of his career hits are home runs. But still...wow.
  2. owbc
    The average family in this country is bordering on financial ruin. It's pretty scary.
  3. owbc
    I agree, some of that was driven by the Ukraine situation but the Russian oil is managing to make it to market. Here in the Seattle area it’s fallen below $4 in the cheaper spots. I was out of the city near the refineries last weekend and I saw $2.75 so I topped off my tank for $14. What a deal!
  4. owbc
    The NHL season as been pretty interesting so far but over the last few weeks it seems like the preseason favorites are starting to rise to the top. Buffalo is back in last place. Some of the other surprised like New Jersey, Seattle, and Detroit have struggled in December. My BIL is a huge Caps fan, he said their entire offensive strategy is designed around trying feed Ovechkin the puck to get him that goals record (as opposed to trying to win as many games as possible). But given how much he's been scoring lately, they are actually winning games.
  5. owbc
    The decision to draw down the SPR is looking brilliant assuming they can start refilling in early 2023 at a 20-30% discount vs. what they were selling it for in 2022.
  6. owbc
    Precisely, it's easy to see why this trade happened given Contreras' defense may be a real liability if teams go back to a past era of stealing 4 or 5 bases per game. But that's all speculation right now, we don't really know how many stolen bases are going to happen and we don't know if the Brewers can coach Contreras to be better at throwing runners out. The A's don't really have a choice, when you have no money you need to think out of the box to try and find value. And if Contreras didn't have a few flaws, the Braves would never have wanted to trade him in the first place.
  7. owbc
    I think there are a number of mid-market fan bases that are absolutely losing their minds right now. Mariners fans are quite angry about the decision to not add payroll, even if it was probably the right call. The Twins seem to be thinking about tanking but are kind of in limbo right now??? The Brewers fan side of me thinks it's kind of nice to have more baseball fans feel the pain of being poor. It doesn't feel good to have zero chance at signing any of the best baseball players, does it??? Or even worse, to know your ownership group is simply pocketing the profits.
  8. owbc
    He got 385 M after opting out, presumably last season he was getting offers in the 300 M range. So he did quite well for himself.
  9. owbc
    The miles driven in my household plunged during the pandemic and never went back to the previous normal, so now I'm sitting on a second car that is 12 years old with roughly 75,000 miles. I came fairly close to going down to a 1 car household when used car prices were high, but it's nice to have it around for the 3 or 4 times per month that it gets used. If it was the 'before times' I would have wanted to replace it but instead we splurged on an expensive primary car and I'll keep the backup car as long as possible.
  10. owbc
    Is it bad that I completely forgot Hiura is still on the roster?
  11. owbc
    Who cares how hard you hit the ball when you have a .447 OBP and steal 85 bases? With the limited pickoff moves starting this year in MLB, Ruiz is going to be able to steal a ton of bases. I'm obviously a huge fan of the trade like everyone else, but Ruiz is going to be fun to watch at the MLB level. It's pretty clear what the A's were looking for. One question though -- how did this dude get hit by a pitch 27 times in one season? He must have been leaning into everything inside. He's clearly about as close to an OBP specialist as you can get.
  12. owbc
    Exactly. The A's are cheap. They are trying to have the lowest possible payroll while stockpiling prospects for the impending move to Vegas.
  13. owbc
    Finally! An actual working brewery at the home of the Brewers.
  14. owbc
    We've been waiting for them to do something to get better in 2023. Worth the wait I would say. Maybe Ruiz eventually pans out but Contreras is worth several wins for us right away, which is exactly what we needed.
  15. owbc
    Great analysis. The stats certainly back up what I saw from Winker last year. Tons of softly hit balls to the pull side which were gobbled up by the shift. Those will still get gobbled up by shifts in 2023. The annoying thing about the shift was when hard hit balls were turned into outs which is what this rule change should help with since you can't play the 2B on the grass anymore. I'm sure the 2B will still be sitting there in the hole waiting for the slowly-hit rollers. Toro will benefit as well since he is better from the left side and is unlikely to get many ABs against lefties. The Brewers definitely took the shift into account when acquiring Toro as the extra piece in the Wong trade. Some of the cascading changes are going to be fun and will take a few years to work out. LOOGYs were basically killed by the combination of shifting and the 3-batter rule but I doubt we'll see anyone copying the Astros' strategy of not having a lefty in the pen anymore.
  16. owbc
    That's why I said if he puts up another 125 OPS+ year similar to 2022. Haniger has missed a ton of time due to injury and was not a difference maker when he returned from injury last year.
  17. owbc
    Renfroe is obviously going to go to free agency after what we are witnessing this offseason. Along with every other MLB player that is within a year or two of free agency. Nimmo has a career 130 OPS+. If Renfroe puts up another 125 OPS+ season he's looking at a $100 million+ contract.
  18. owbc
    At the end of the day, I'd rather see the money go to the players than the owners. It reflects society in general -- those at the top are massively successful right now. Sports leagues are far from the only entity with record revenue and profits these days. The Padres are of course being dumb, but it's not like they are the only ones driving up the price of FAs. The smart way to play in this market is to buy out free agency with incentive-laden contracts the second your stars hit the major leagues.
  19. owbc
    So as of right now the Padres have $700 million committed to shortstop. This is insanity.
  20. owbc
    It would probably be a bigger deal if we didn't know already that they do this. Although this is kind of a new low, in the past it seemed like they just liked to turn certain marquee games into slugfests like the London Series and the Field of Dreams game. I would say that trying to secretly manipulate home run records is pretty scandalous. Because that's the implication of this study -- they were trying to get Judge to 62.
  21. owbc
    The Padres benefit from being the only 'big 4' professional sport left in San Diego but their roster management has been terrible. They took an elite group of minor leaguers and turned it into a fringe wild card team with a gigantic payroll. I think their track record in trades in the past 5-10 years is something insane like negative 100 WAR. The best (worst?) part is that the 2022 NLCS appearance seems to justify it. Maybe the strategy is fine in the 'expanded playoffs' era of MLB, or maybe upsetting the Dodgers was more likely to happen with established major leaguers than inexperienced young guys. Things will be interesting now that the NLCS appearance is the baseline. Maybe they can ride their current roster for another year, but as the Brewers know well, you can't count on winning playoff series on a consistent basis with a sub-par roster. Or even a great roster like the Dodgers have. Pretty much everyone besides the Astros has been dealing with that reality.
  22. owbc
    The Padres are rumored to be planning to trade Tatis Jr which I assume is how they would have avoided going way, way over the luxury tax.
  23. owbc
    I just looked him up on baseball reference and was shocked to see that this is Bellinger's age 27 season! He's a full 3 1/2 years younger than Yelich. I forgot there was that much of an age difference between the two of them. I see this as a bit of a barometer for how much we're overpaying Yelich relative to what he would command on the open market, at least for a 1-year contract.
  24. owbc
    Jace has $4 million in career earnings (nearly half of that in 2022) so I'm happy for him to finally get what should be a decent payday for a utility guy. There are a lot of players who never make it to free agency. He was a valuable contributor here.
  25. owbc
    I think it was mostly frustration from the injuries combined with lack of production. At the mid-season mark Winker was on good terms with everyone, especially after his role in that brawl with the Angels. He certainly stood up for his teammates in that situation. Winker is not going to take the extra base or lay out to make a diving catch. He looks lazy when he's playing baseball and he doesn't care that he plays the game that way. That's the "character" concern that we're talking about. There are no shortage of baseball players that are hitting specialists, so as long as he hits, it will probably be fine. He looks like he cares when he draws 10 pitch walks. Just keep him in the DH spot and things will be fine.
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