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owbc

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Everything posted by owbc

  1. owbc
    Yeah a 4.50 FIP isn't good enough to crack the rotation of some of the better pitching staffs in the league. If you give his actual performance the benefit of the doubt, he's a solid #4/#5 on a playoff contender. Which is what our plan for him is.
  2. owbc
    The only thing this drama is missing is for an unnamed mystery team to jump into the bidding. Payroll disparities are a big topic in MLB fan bases right now. I feel like Brewers fans are kind of collectively shrugging their shoulders but some of these mid-market fans aren't as familiar with feeling poor. Seeing the Padres and Phillies ride their spending sprees to the NLCS didn't help, even as many argue that their decisions will hurt them in the long run.
  3. owbc
    Great article. Personally I like having the extra arm around, I think there's a high likelihood that either one or both of Lauer and Houser will struggle in 2023 and we don't have Brent Suter around anymore to eat up innings in the pen. I would also be open to trading Lauer but not for Santander. I know he hit a bunch of HR in 2022 but he's not that good defensively and we can always put up with Winker's defense if we need to. I would rather just get a better prospect haul from Baltimore or another suitor, but it might be worth starting the season with the arm surplus and seeing how things sort themselves out. The trade deadline would be the best time to move Burnes but I doubt it happens unless we're out of contention. The Luis Castillo trade is a good benchmark for what we could expect to get for Burnes -- three of the top 5 prospects in a strong farm system. That would be fantastic.
  4. owbc
    Down 1% is impressive for 2022! That was a tough year. I'm still deciding what to do in 2023. In 2022 I had some losses on S&P 500 index funds that I cashed out in the fall (partially for tax reasons plus a lack of confidence that stocks are going to go up in 2023). I also bought my full allotment of I-Bonds when the rate was 9%. And finally I bought some of my company's stock at a 5% discount which has stayed flat in the past 6 months. Currently my extra cash is sitting in a Fidelity account earning 4%. The other uncertainty that sits over my head is the possibility that student loan payments will resume...and whether there will be any forgiveness or not (and whether I will be eligible for it)...and if payments do resume should I refinance or pay it off with our lower interest HELOC as my financial advisor has suggested. I've also thought about getting a vacation/rental property but everything still seems way overpriced and my partner would prefer to upgrade our house, which doesn't make sense right now because we're locked into a low interest rate and the housing market needs to cool off more. So I'm pretty happy getting the 4% for now...it seems like they will do anything to get inflation down so the I-Bonds don't appeal to me in 2023...I guess old school stuff like CDs and savings accounts might be the safest investment these days...
  5. owbc
    That's 16 starts too many, and the worst part is that most of them were in the second half of the season when we desperately needed wins. Alexander doesn't belong on a major league roster. In an ideal world, Houser should have been booted from the rotation due to his poor performance. The rotation was a serious liability in the second half and was a big reason we missed the playoffs. When guys are injured or not performing you have to have the arms to swap in and that's where Miley provides a ton of value as a depth option. He's a massive upgrade over Alexander and these other guys.
  6. owbc
    I have similar thoughts after watching some of the game last night. It felt like Giannis and a bunch of guys at times. I would like to see them be able to sit Giannis and still win like they were able to do in their really good regular season years, but what can you do? He's far from the only NBA star having to carry all of the weight right now. There's still a ton of regular season left but I can't imagine they are going to win another title if they don't get their regular rotation at least a few weeks of healthy reps prior to the playoffs. Although it feels like the whole NBA is kind of a toss-up this year with at least 6 or 7 teams that could find themselves in the finals, so the Bucks have as good of a chance as anyone if they can get healthy.
  7. owbc
    This is great, I was just complaining in another thread about rotation depth. We had way too many games started by guys who didn't belong in a major league rotation last year.
  8. owbc
    Every west coast team besides Oakland is going to be bidding on Ohtani. Not to mention the usual east coast suspects. We know San Francisco is sitting on the Correa cash that they didn't spend. Seattle may have sat out this year in order to conserve funds for Ohtani. Prediction: Ohtani to Colorado.
  9. owbc
    To me that just shows the value of rotation depth, which has not been addressed this offseason. So if there is another injury or a regression we'll be back to the middle of the pack again. Plus we already know from 2021 that an elite TOR is far from a guarantee of playoff success.
  10. owbc
    In 2022 our rotation was league average. In 2021 we got out-pitched by the Braves in the postseason -- largely because the Braves struck gold on a handful of unremarkable deadline acquisitions that happened to get hot at the right time. I think it's a tremendous shame that they missed the postseason in 2022 but it's not like they "wasted" anything that wasn't unique to any other year that they missed the playoffs. Any contract where you are front ending WAR and back ending salary puts you at a disadvantage down the road. Supposedly our competitive advantage is our analytics department, right? In addition to player development? If that's the case, then the Hader trade should be the standard for what we are trying to do. Then we need to do more trading and keep restocking. Don't sign any extensions.
  11. owbc
    These guys were basically Mariners' rejects, so you really have to inject some optimism in your veins in order to think that they will be difference makers for the Brewers in 2023. Wong wasn't part of the Brewers' 2023 plans but they recognized they could get something of value for him -- either a lower-tier prospect in exchange for the salary dump or some reclamation projects that came with equivalent salary. You can understand why Attanasio didn't like the optics of another salary dump. I'm of the opinion that the Brewers will get some value out of Toro since he has some pop from the left side and can play 3/4 infield positions. And you can see the appeal of getting Winker back into a ballpark that is more favorable to left-handed hitters, especially with the shift ban. It's certainly a play for 2023 and when you combine it with the fortuitous Contreras acquisition and the prospects coming up we have a team that has a fair bit of offensive upside for 2023. Attanasio always seems to have his pulse on the fans -- the Brewers' FO would probably go full Tampa Bay if they could but Attanasio tends to keep that in check when he can. Also remember that the Mariners' FO is quick to dump guys that they are done with. They don't care about sunk costs and would rather swap for a fresh face than give a guy a second year to bounce back. That pairs well with the opportunistic attitude of the Brewers' FO.
  12. owbc
    Oh man, Tim Hudson got robbed. At the very least he should have been given a longer run on the ballot. I'm not entirely sold on Buehrle either but I think he deserves to have a long ballot run at the very least. I'm of the same opinion as Brewcrew82 that the standards are a little too exclusive for my liking. I also like having a full ballot in order to give these borderline guys time to make their case. Weighing longevity vs. peak production is one of the tricky/fun parts about this. The intangibles also need to be considered with the borderline guys. Buehrle has a perfect game and a no-hitter as well as well as a pile of gold gloves. That matters. If MVP voting is important, then you can make a case for Rollins and Kent. Plus there's the position-relative aspect...four silver sluggers is pretty impressive for Kent. If your criteria is asking which of these guys were truly feared in their prime, guys who were at the absolute top of the sport, that's Helton, Wagner, and Sheffield. So maybe the hive mind of the voters knows what they are doing after all.
  13. owbc
    Honestly I completely forgot he was on that list.
  14. owbc
    The Mariners have also spent $0 and have a smart FO that has a lot in common with the Brewers. It's not surprising that they have become frequent trade partners. Brewers fans are handling the offseason much better than Mariners fans, but in the end I think we're going to be happy we sat this one out. Segura has been nothing if not consistent, but I think we're better off hoping that Toro fills that roster spot.
  15. owbc
    Rolen, Sheffield, and Abreu are easy locks based on their offensive production. Helton is maybe slightly below them (park adjusted) but had one of the greatest 5-year runs of all time. Kent was one of the best 2B of all time, but Andruw Jones was one of the best CF of all time. If you vote for one you have to vote for the other. I'm on the fence about Wagner but I don't think he should get knocked out for his bad postseason numbers. Pettite and Buehrle were two of the best starters of the steroid era. Again I think you have to do both or neither. The voters have spoken on the other guys with PED/character issues so I've decided to go along with that. That leaves me with one vote which goes to Carlos Beltran, who is another borderline guy who we will likely be discussing every year for a while. Ballot: Rolen, Sheffield, Abreu, Jones, Helton, Kent, Wagner, Pettite, Buehrle, Beltran
  16. owbc
    LOL. It's the same thing in Seattle. There was a pretty big reddit thread about it, discussing the weird questions about being safe or escaping the violence that people were getting while talking to relatives or visiting people outside of the city. Then it became a big joke in the recent political cycle when some candidates ran advertisements in front of a green screen about the city being lawless. There is definitely a subset of people who live in the city who further encourage it because they want the housing/rent prices to go down, but of course the cities are popular so the prices keep going up. Also...c'mon people, it isn't 1995 anymore. Everyone knows that the crime issues are caused by (1) money and (2) fentanyl. I bet every single person on this forum can name an extended family member or friend that had their life ruined by the drug crisis. My family included, so I'm not saying that lightly. Those issues are everywhere. The city just has a higher concentration of potential victims. Auto theft in particular has been going on forever. I know someone who had their Subaru stolen at least 4 times. This was back in 2014-15. Every time it was driven around until it ran out of gas and then abandoned. If you have a car that is easy to steal then you have to take precautions.
  17. owbc
    The offense isn’t good, but it’s more interesting.
  18. owbc
    We need to be clear about the distinction between freedoms and privileges. Car driving is a privilege that is often mistaken for a freedom. In addition to the "freedom" to flout traffic rules, harass cyclists and pedestrians, etc. Technology can and should be used to make cars safer. Anyway...these days you can just hide a $30 air tag in your car. Or your luggage, especially if you are trusting Southwest Airlines to get it to your destination.
  19. owbc
    Interest rates changed. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-are-teams-issuing-extremely-long-contracts/ Basically when interest rates are high it makes more sense for both players and owners to sign longer deals. The whole demographics thing is a red herring, as noted in the post above this one. MLB's demographics trends are consistent with every other sport.
  20. owbc
    I'm ok with the current situation because of (1) the expanded postseason as well as the randomness of it; (2) free agency rarely wins championships in MLB; (3) the Brewers are one of the small markets that is legitimately trying to win and not pocket profits.
  21. owbc
    The majority of MLB fanbases are mad at their owners for not spending enough right now. Brewers fans seem to have their anger rightfully directed at the system opposed to their owner. One rumor is that MLB is allowing or even encouraging Cohen to spend like crazy in order to increase support for a salary cap in the next CBA. That may work, but we still have not reached the level of inequality that triggered the salary cap to be implemented in the mid-2000s. At that time the Yankees were spending something like 4x the median payroll. The Mets are not even at 3x yet.
  22. owbc
    I wonder if this takes the Mets out of the Ohtani sweepstakes or if they will have another $500 million sitting around next offseason. That contract is going to be incredible.
  23. owbc
    Yeah that was a top-5 game in my lifetime I think, any sport. I can't say it any better than you did.
  24. owbc
    The storm that will eventually impact WI is approaching us in Seattle right now. We're expected to get 4-6" of snow tomorrow followed by temperatures plunging to the teens, which is extremely rare for this region. I'm sure there will be videos of Seattle drivers crashing down hills on social media by Wednesday.
  25. owbc
    That has the look of a real blizzard! Not an everyday occurrence.
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