RobertR

Yeah, Short Term 12 is really good. Brie Larson especially. Some stuff I've been catching on DVD. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - I think it's a bit better than the first one, and certainly adding a lot of capable adults to the cast helps. Recreating the games makes the second half a bit repetitive with the first, but it ends with a bang. Take Shelter - I think Michael Shannon is outstanding in this. This and Mud make Jeff Nichols a director to keep an eye on. Barking Dogs Never Bite - Bong Joon-ho's first film is mostly a dark comedy, and is pretty funny at that. At least if you deal with fake cruelty to dogs. You can see a lot of his social class concerns in this one. Memories of Murder is a big jump up from this, but this is still an enjoyable film. American Hustle - I was entertained by it, but think it's a bit less than the sum of its parts. Certainly, it has less to say about the American dream than it thinks it does. I'm kind of put off by the fact that we don't need a Scorsese pastiche when Scorsese is still making movies, and David O. Russell doesn't really use that pastiche to make any sort of a comment. The cast is fantastic though. The Wolf of Wall Street - Proof of why we don't need Scorsese pastiches when he's still putting out films at this level. Who knew DiCaprio had a gift for comedy, physical comedy at that. It's way over the line and I kind of love it for that. It's been a long time since Scorsese made a film as purely funny as it and the three hours just flew by for me. Nanook of the North - Terrific documentary from 1922. You can tell it was highly influential. Nanook is a very memorable character as well. This is the End - I laughed some. The folks making the film do have talent and know how to poke fun at themselves, although nothing cuts too deep. I was disappointed in the second half though when they go for riffs on Rosemary's Baby and The Exorcist, like those two films haven't been riffed upon enough in the last 40+ years, and felt that they didn't really know how to end it. Emma Watson is wasted. Snowpiercer - A region free viewing, convinces me that this is one of the best comic book action movies of the year. The better Chris Evans action movie if you were to ask me and you can tell that it's the work of an auteur. It manages to lay its influences on its sleeve, clearly Bong Joon-ho is a fan of Terry Gilliam, while also never being an imitation. It helps that the allegory holds together, perhaps because it's simple. Yeah, some of the special effects aren't great, but that's easy to overlook. Highly recommended.

While I'm sure Reynolds will have his struggles, I'm very happy with the pickup of him considering the alternatives. As long as the Brewers aren't trotting out sub-replacement level hitters, they're not negating what their hitting stars can bring to the table.

I'm pleased to see COMMUNITY returning to a really solid level. In many ways, I think Harmon's time away was good for perspective of the show. It's still sometimes more clever than funny, but when it hits there are some legitimately great episodes in its run. I've been meaning to catch up on SPACED via DVD one of these days. What I've seen I liked a lot. I don't stream Netflix, but I see ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT Season 4 is due out on DVD in June. Also, HBO has made available the pilot to SILICON VALLEY for free. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvkmsI54ss4

The Brewers are likely 3 or 4 wins better if Reynolds and Overbay are merely replacement level. Yeah, they're completely unexciting ballplayers and short-term band-aids, but you don't have to have all stars at every position. First base just doesn't have to sink the team, like it did last year. Along with the back end of the rotation. There's potential at every other position to be at least average. That's more than a lot of contenders can say.

Here are Francisco's game logs: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=francju02&t=f&year=2013 And Yuni B's game logs: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=betanyu01&t=f&year=2013

I don't see what's so controversial about a team deciding that contending is worth giving up a low first rounder. Most low first rounders don't make a significant impact. I believe that we've gotten to the point where the first rounder might be overvalued a bit. Frankly, I wonder if we're underrating scouting and instruction vs. an obsession with drafting position. Especially since there's good reason to believe this will work out for Atlanta. They did make the playoffs last year. And they'll have stiff competition this year. Heck, even as it is, I think Atlanta has come back to the pack which makes the goal of the Brewers making the playoffs a little less daunting. Washington, Los Angeles, St. Louis will obviously be the favorites, but Atlanta, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, maybe Arizona, and maybe the Brewers doesn't seem that daunting of a group to compete with for 2 spots.

If Medlen is down, then this is a season salvaging move. Probably a necessary one as I don't think the arrow is pointed up and they'll have their hands full with Washington.

I thought it was a very fine year for independent movies and documentaries, but would agree that the big studio pictures were lacking. I did thoroughly appreciate Gravity, Captain Phillips, and 12 Years a Slave though.

A few Oscar related viewings. CAPTAIN PHILLIPS - Paul Greengrass shows all of his talents, including taking a complicated story with many parts and making it clear. Hanks is terrific in an everyman role and he shows something in the last 5 minutes that I didn't know he had in him. Very good support and the movie is edited tight, for maximum tension. Really terrific. THE LONE RANGER - It has problems. It's overlong and Act 2 is convoluted, Johnny Depp's "crazy injun" Tonto goes too far over the top at times, and it has difficulty managing the ideas of native American genocide and exploitation of foreign workers with it's often Princess Bride tone. But, it looks gorgeous, Gore Verbinski knows his way around a setpiece, a good many of the jokes land, and the climax is as rousing a climax as any this year as they basically decide, let's remake Buster Keaton's The General. It's a flawed film, but an overhated one. THE ACT OF KILLING - The most visceral reaction I had to a movie in the last year. It's bizarre, it's chilling, and it almost made me physically ill at times. But, it definitely gets across the power of the film, both as something that seduces people and makes them let down their guard (something Erroll Morris undoubtedly appreciated) and as an empathy engine that causes those making films to put themselves in the shoes of their characters. I didn't see them on home video, but I certainly can recommend THE SQUARE (some truly terrific "you are there" filmmaking), CUTIE AND THE BOXER (a complicated relationship shown with real nuance and understanding), 20 FEET FROM STARDOM (a real crowdpleaser with a great soundtrack), THE BROKEN CIRCLE BREAKDOWN (a terrific drama with footstompling Bluegrass music), THE GREAT BEAUTY (a modern day, gorgeous, La Dolce Vita), BLUE JASMINE (Cate Blanchett and Sally Hawkins are terrific), 12 YEARS A SLAVE (brutal and unblinking, but not a repetitive screed with terrific performances), and GRAVITY, although I wonder if GRAVITY will play nearly as well as it does on the big screen.

Groundhog Day is a masterpiece. Ramis was terrifically funny, but he also helped Bill Murray find his soul as an actor. Two things that will live on.

I was guilty of overthinking things this year. Especially in Editing and Best Actress where I should have just went with the front runners. I suspect that American Hustle wasn't all that close to winning Best Picture the way things played out. When it didn't win Costume, Original Screenplay, or any acting awards you knew it was a two horse race. I couldn't see Best Picture being the only award it would win. Ellen was more cute than funny. The idea of a group selfie at the Oscars reads well on paper, but there was no punchline to it. I guess ordering pizza was amusing and makes the crowd more human, but again no real punchline to it. Bill Murray may have had the only truly genuine moment of the night. Not surprisingly.

Noted.

Prediction Time, although I'm not nearly as confident this year as I am in some previous years. Best Picture 12 Years a Slave Best Actor in a Leading Role Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) Best Actress in a Leading Role Amy Adams (American Hustle) (I think the Woody Allen scandal will keep Blanchett off the podium) Best Actor in a Supporting Role Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) Best Actress in a Supporting Role Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave) Best Animated Feature Frozen Best Cinematography Gravity Best Costume Design American Hustle Best Directing Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity) Best Documentary Feature The Act of Killing Best Film Editing Captain Phillips (I think it's too well liked not to win anything.) Best Foreign Language Film The Broken Circle Breakdown Best Makeup and Hairstyling Dallas Buyers Club Best Original Score Gravity Best Original Song Let It Go (Frozen) Best Production Design The Great Gatsby Best Visual Effects Gravity Best Adapted Screenplay 12 Years a Slave Best Original Screenplay American Hustle Best Documentary Short Subject The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life Best Live Action Short Film Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything) Best Animated Short Film Get a Horse!

Agreed...If the Brewers stay relatively healthy and everyone plays pretty much to their career averages, I think the Brewers should project to win between 84-86 games. It's important to remember that these are median projections, which are likely assuming a fair share of injuries. A healthy team should significantly outperform a median team. It's also worth noting that while median means a lot, standard deviation means a lot too. What are the odds that the team can win 90 games should be the real number that we're looking at.

Nominations are out today. A couple of inclusions and exclusions that are a little surprising, but nothing really shocking. It's a pretty safe group of nominations all things considered. Surprisingly, Best Documentary and Best Foreign Language Films seem pretty reasonable this year. BEST PICTURE “12 Years a Slave” “American Hustle” “Captain Phillips” “Dallas Buyers Club” “Gravity” “Her” “Nebraska” “Philomena” “The Wolf of Wall Street” BEST DIRECTOR David O. Russell, “American Hustle” Alfonso Cuaron, “Gravity” Alexander Payne, “Nebraska” Steve McQueen, “12 Years a Slave” Martin Scorsese, “The Wolf of Wall Street” BEST ACTOR Christian Bale, “American Hustle” Bruce Dern, “Nebraska” Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street” Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave” Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club” BEST ACTRESS Amy Adams, “American Hustle” Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine” Sandra Bullock, “Gravity” Judi Dench, “Philomena” Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County” BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY “American Hustle” – Written by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell “Blue Jasmine” – Written by Woody Allen “Her” – Written by Spike Jonze “Nebraska” – Written by Bob Nelson “Dallas Buyers Club” – Written by Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY “Before Midnight” – Written by Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke “Captain Phillips” – Screenplay by Billy Ray “Philomena” – Screenplay by Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope “12 Years a Slave” – Screenplay by John Ridley “The Wolf of Wall Street” – Screenplay by Terence Winter BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave” Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle” June Squibb, “Nebraska” Julia Roberts, “August: Osage County” Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine” BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips” Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle” Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave” Jonah Hill, “The Wolf of Wall Street” Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club” BEST ANIMATED FILM “The Croods” “Despicable Me 2” “Ernest & Celestine” “Frozen” “The Wind Rises” BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY “The Grandmaster” “Gravity” “Inside Llewyn Davis” “Nebraska” “Prisoners” BEST COSTUME DESIGN Michael Wilkinson, “American Hustle” William Chang Suk Ping, “The Grandmaster” Catherine Martin, “The Great Gatsby” Michael O’Connor, “The Invisible Woman” Patricia Norris, “12 Years a Slave” BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE “The Act of Killing”Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen “Cutie and the Boxer” Zachary Heinzerling and Lydia Dean Pilcher “Dirty Wars” Richard Rowley and Jeremy Scahill “The Square” Jehane Noujaim and Karim Amer “20 Feet from Stardom” Nominees to be determined BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT “CaveDigger” Jeffrey Karoff “Facing Fear” Jason Cohen “Karama Has No Walls” Sara Ishaq “The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life” Malcolm Clarke and Nicholas Reed “Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall” Edgar Barens BEST FILM EDITING “American Hustle” Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten “Captain Phillips” Christopher Rouse “Dallas Buyers Club” John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa “Gravity” Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger “12 Years a Slave” Joe Walker BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM “The Broken Circle Breakdown” Belgium “The Great Beauty” Italy “The Hunt” Denmark “The Missing Picture” Cambodia “Omar” Palestine BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING “Dallas Buyers Club” Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews “Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa” Stephen Prouty “The Lone Ranger” Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny BEST ORIGINAL SCORE John Williams, “The Book Thief” Steven Price, “Gravity” William Butler and Owen Pallett, “Her” Alexandre Desplat, “Philomena” Thomas Newman, “Saving Mr. Banks” BEST ORIGINAL SONG “Alone Yet Not Alone” from “Alone Yet Not Alone” Music by Bruce Broughton; Lyric by Dennis Spiegel “Happy” from “Despicable Me 2” Music and Lyric by Pharrell Williams “Let It Go” from “Frozen” Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez “The Moon Song” from “Her” Music by Karen O; Lyric by Karen O and Spike Jonze “Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom” Music by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen; Lyric by Paul Hewson BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN “American Hustle” Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Heather Loeffler “Gravity” Production Design: Andy Nicholson; Set Decoration: Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard “The Great Gatsby” Production Design: Catherine Martin; Set Decoration: Beverley Dunn “Her” Production Design: K.K. Barrett; Set Decoration: Gene Serdena “12 Years a Slave” Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Alice Baker BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM “Feral” Daniel Sousa and Dan Golden “Get a Horse!” Lauren MacMullan and Dorothy McKim “Mr. Hublot” Laurent Witz and Alexandre Espigares “Possessions” Shuhei Morita “Room on the Broom” Max Lang and Jan Lachauer BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM “Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)” Esteban Crespo “Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything)” Xavier Legrand and Alexandre Gavras “Helium” Anders Walter and Kim Magnusson “Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)” Selma Vilhunen and Kirsikka Saari “The Voorman Problem” Mark Gill and Baldwin Li BEST SOUND EDITING “All Is Lost” Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns “Captain Phillips” Oliver Tarney “Gravity” Glenn Freemantle “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” Brent Burge “Lone Survivor” Wylie Stateman BEST SOUND MIXING “Captain Phillips” Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro “Gravity” Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson “Inside Llewyn Davis” Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland “Lone Survivor” Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow BEST VISUAL EFFECTS “Gravity” Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk and Neil Corbould “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds “Iron Man 3” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick “The Lone Ranger” Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier “Star Trek Into Darkness” Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann and Burt Dalton

This is pretty much spot on with what I was thinking. In addition if you look at the top 10 drafted he is the only all star so who else should they have taken? So was Rickie a bust I would lean towards no with what else was available. The Brewers just drew the 2nd pick in a bad draft. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Major_League_Baseball_Draft [pre]Pick Player Team Position School 1 Delmon Young Rays OF Adolfo Camarillo High School 2 Rickie Weeks Brewers 2B Southern University 3 Kyle Sleeth Tigers RHP Wake Forest University 4 Tim Stauffer Padres RHP University of Richmond 5 Chris Lubanski Royals CF Kennedy-Kenrick High School (PA) 6 Ryan Harvey Cubs CF Dunedin High School 7 Nick Markakis Orioles OF Young Harris College 8 Paul Maholm Pirates LHP Mississippi State 9 John Danks Rangers LHP Round Rock High School 10 Ian Stewart Rockies 3B La Quinta High School[/pre] Compare that to the 1985 draft when Surhoff was drafted. Arguably, the Brewers got the best player they could have out of the 2003 draft. It's certainly not true for Surhoff. Which doesn't exclude Weeks being a disappointment, but that's a subjective observation. Surhoff may be the biggest missed opportunity in franchise history.

Shouldn't B.J. Surhoff, number 1 pick in the draft ahead of Will Clark, Barry Larkin, and Barry Bonds, be in this conversation?

Given that Fiers and Rogers aren't part of the rotation plans, I'd dispute that the 2014 roster is exactly like the 2013 roster. I'll take no moves over a Jeffrey Hammonds like signing. Or when Eric Young was the big signing of the offseason.

If you buy into the Fangraph's WAR projections (courtesy of Disciples of Uecker), the Brewers are currently around a 76 or 77 win team, and these two moves would likely add about 4 wins. In other words, they would be projected for a near .500 finish with the moves. Another way to look at it is the Brewers current cumulative team WAR projection is 27.9, and a team typically needs around 40.0 to be considered a "contender". The thing with projections is there are reasons to believe that they're projecting some injuries, missed time, etc. I'd agree, if the Brewers have significant injuries/suspensions, they're not a contender. I think even the most optimistic agree that good health is the key to being contenders. Really, the mean projection only tells part of the story. What's the standard deviation? What's the upside? Basically, what percentage chance do the Brewers have to win 90 games? One number, the projected mean, only tells part of the story.

If I'm giving up a real pitching prospect, I'd expect something a lot better than Ike Davis. Heck, go after Chase Headley and move Aramis to first for a year.

If Rickie Weeks is on the roster on opening day, then he's going to get some starts at 2B against left-handed pitching. Gennett isn't going to play every day and it only makes sense to give him days off against lefties when you have a right-handed bat on the bench. If Weeks is on the bench, he's going to get some starts, just like Bianchi, Schafer, etc., and it's likely to be against lefties. It will be a light platoon at the very least. This article seems like a passive-aggressive argument against Weeks even being on the roster. You want to treat Weeks as a sunk cost and move him, I'm on board with that argument. But, to me, the idea that Gennett won't be "that bad" against lefties is a weak argument to that point. Gennett is likely to be worse than Weeks against lefties and if the goal is to win in 2014, then getting Weeks starts vs. lefties makes sense. Heck, even if you want to eat some of the contract and move Weeks, it's not going to happen until teams see how he plays in Spring Training. Even if the Brewers are going to shop him heavily, they're going to keep the platoon idea around simply as leverage.

We'll have to agree to disagree here. None of Braun, Gindl, or Davis are centerfielders, IMO. If the Brewers were to trade Gomez, they're going to have to bring somebody in. Now, maybe it is easier to find a serviceable centerfielder than a stud pitching prospect, for example. But, guys that play a premium defensive position don't fall out of trees either. My main concern is that you can trade anyone in a vacuum. But, it has to be integrated into an overall strategy for talent acquisition, otherwise you just end up moving the holes around.

There are a lot of things I think Gindl is capable of doing at the big-league level. Playing 1B at 5'9" isn't one of them. I wouldn't say it's optimal, but he couldn't possibly be worse than Prince Fielder out there. And people are legitimately suggesting 5'10" Rickie Weeks there as well. What's Travis Ishikawa up to these days?

Somebody should send Caleb Gindl a first baseman's glove for Christmas.

We do? Nothing against Logan Schafer, but he has career 5th outfielder written all over him, not starting center fielder. Trading Gomez in isolation isn't without consequences. I'd argue that trading him as part of a fire sale along with Braun, Lucroy, whatever you can get for Weeks with money thrown in, Ramirez, Lohse, Gallardo, etc. makes sense, but trading him in isolation is just a half measure.