RobertR

The more I look at the numbers of supposedly "available" players, the more I think they're available because they stink. If Hart's knees are ok, he still looks like the guy with the most short-term upside.

Again, my point isn't necessary that Maldonado needs to be replaced as much as the Brewers aren't in a position to not see what depth is out there. There are a number of players on the roster that were around replacement level last year and none of them should be immune from competition if there is someone out there that's acquirable. Plus, I categorically reject the notion that Maldonado couldn't be worse, like defensive performance is perfectly repeatable. It's easily possible that he's better offensively and not as good defensively and is right back at replacement level or worse. That's the type of assumption that leads to banners of Henry Blanco in front of Miller Park. I don't think I have any kind of radical stance by saying replacement level players are guys you should have Plan Bs for. Yeah, there's nothing you can do if Lucroy goes down. But, if Maldonado goes out and is sub-Mendoza line again, which I think is a lot more likely than you do, having an option at AAA is a good idea. Or if the Brewers aren't going to acquire depth in the offseason, I hope they're a lot more willing to pull the trigger if it becomes a problem in 2014 than they were in 2013.

Hardy should be included as a hit.

Yeah, we went all of last season with Yuni on the roster. And it was a disaster. What's your point, that we shouldn't have been proactive in bringing in first basemen that would likely be at or above replacement level? Depending on how you value defense, there's a good chunk of the depth of the team that's likely to be at or below replacement value. Being cheap means squat if you're at replacement value. The Brewers shouldn't be automatically handing a roster spot to anyone if they're cheap and bad, especially if they have options. Now, I'm not expecting the Brewers to go hog wild in free agency to address all those spots, but I'd like for them to keep their eyes open.

No, I'm asking them to keep their eyes open to see if they can scoop up somebody who is potentially above replacement level if Maldonado tanks again. Especially since it looks like the Brewers are actually going to put a team on the field that they think could contend and every win likely matters. This might seem like a radical idea, but a guy that's below replacement level is someone you should look to replace. No matter how cheap. Admittedly, since budget is an issue, the likeliest thing to happen is to trot Maldonado out there at the beginning of the season and if the Brewers are in contention and he's not hitting a lick, you likely can pick up a catcher cheap at the deadline. But, a backup catcher typically doesn't make all that much either and if you can pick up a win, that's a good marginal return on an extra couple of hundred thousand. I feel the same way about Logan Schafer, Juan Francisco, and Jeff Bianchi too. Death by a thousand paper cuts. Those three plus Maldonado could reasonably be expected to get about 1000 PAs in 2014. If you're looking to find wins on the margins and cheaply, i'd suggest that not just handing a roster spot to guys with sub-replacement level potential is a good place to start.

He also has negative WAR ability/potential based on last season. There's no harm in looking around for depth when you have a player like that. Because "we have nobody better" isn't an excuse. Nobody is saying replace him. Just have a Plan B. Heck, what happens if one of Lucroy or Maldonado goes down with injury for a few weeks anyways? The debacle at first base last year should be a lesson that there's no such thing as too much depth.

Who cares if Segura is not a product of the system? The topic is about the Brewers competing, not whether the farm system has been particularly good the last few years. If anything, it points that the Brewers have a good eye in spotting trade talent and making good trades. Personally, I think we need to take Top 100 lists with a good grain of salt. They're an appeal to authority, but the track record of them will show that about half or more will wash out without making much of an impact. I'll hazard that Jonathan Lucroy, a prospect that was never ranked in a Top 100 list, will have a more valuable career than about 75% of the top prospects listed above. Maybe more as he's an All Star level talent. Heck, just to cite two, would you be eager to take on the contracts of Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo based on what you've seen from the two of them to date? There's a fair chance that Scooter Gennett and Khris Davis could ultimately be more valuable. Which isn't to defend the Brewers drafting and development at all, although it does seem reasonable to note that Peralta and Thornburg have shown up in Top 100 lists as prospects, but a smattering of top prospects doesn't make a farm system. That said, they seem to have at least developed some pitching depth at the top levels and I have a lot more faith in Peralta in his second year and Thornburg being assets to the rotation than I ever had in Rogers and Fiers. Really, at this stage, the only bad contract that the Brewers are really holding onto is Weeks. Yeah, Lohse and Ramirez are getting up there, but they're still two very good players. Other than those two and Weeks, I'm not sure what the complaint about the Brewers is. Frankly, I'd argue that age isn't the issue with the Brewers anyway, it's being able to remain healthy. And not settling for Yuniesky Betancourt at first base. Otherwise, if the Brewers don't compete this year, Ramirez and Weeks are gone. They probably shop Lohse too. But, in the meantime, they have to field a team. And I don't see any harm in putting together a competitive team. The Cardinals have never tanked. Frankly, they've won a World Series with a fairly weak team that just got hot. I see nothing wrong with taking your best shot at the beginning of the season and if it's not working out at midseason, trading off guys like Ramirez, Weeks, and Lohse. And, if you're only on a pace to win 86 or so, maybe look to see what you can acquire to get you to 90 wins. Also, the way teams seem to value prospects these days, I'd say that the market is overcompensating to an extent. A prospect that pans out is very valuable, but lots of them don't. With the exception of possibly Odorizzi, who have the Brewers given up for their run that you really want back now? Heck, given the choice between Odorizzi and Segura, I think Segura looks like much more of a star at this point.

Worse is a relative term. They were the second best hitting team in the NL last year measured by wOBA. 0.002 points behind the best hitting team. Sure they were lucky but even with normal clutch stats there were one of the best hitting teams in the NL. Sure, nobody is expecting them to be bad. But, I think the Cardinals are more likely to project to 90 wins than 97 wins. They're the favorites to repeat, but I don't think we should go into the season thinking they're some kind of all time dynasty that can't possibly not make the playoffs. Rather, they're a very well put together team that's likely not to be quite as good as they were last year. Let's say they win 3 less games. Who picks up those three games may not decide the division, but it may make a difference in the wild card. And, regardless, I think it's worth considering that a 90 win team made the playoffs this year and that's been a pretty consistent benchmark for making the playoffs in the NL. Don't worry so much about other teams, what do the Brewers have to do to win 90 games? The rest tends to take care of itself.

Can you share your reasoning behind this sentiment? That I expect the relief pitching to be neither elite nor horrible? Obviously, relief pitching is unpredictable, but last I checked Henderson, Kintzler, Badenhop, and Wooten were all fine in relief last year. Heck, Gorzelanny had a fine year as a reliever. Yeah, they may all be worse in 2014, but they still should be somewhere in the neighborhood of competence. Heck, the Brewers probably will sign a reliever or two, as they don't require back breaking contracts. Behind signing a first baseman, it's probably one of the higher priorities on Melvin's agenda.

Just for the sake of discussion, I don't believe St. Louis is going to hit .330 with runners in scoring position in 2014 like they did in 2013. That's a fluke outlier stat. They'll be good, but without Beltran and a normal BA with RISP, they're likely to be worse. And, of course, the wild card of injuries can rear its head for any team. I also think that too much time is spent worrying about other teams. What are the expectations for runs scored for the Brewers and for runs allowed? You get those into the mid- to upper- 80s win range and you're a contender. Maybe you have to make a move at the deadline, but that's normal. Offensively, I look at the Brewers and think shore up first base and perhaps find a backup third baseman that can be replacement level if Aramis needs time off, and you're good to go. You're possibly even an elite offense. Starting pitching wise, there's potential, but that's often the most heartbreaking term in sports. Relief pitching should be fine.

A salary cap is meaningless without substantial revenue sharing. It's amazing to me that people give all the credit to the salary cap to the NFL's seeming parity (which also has a lot to do with short careers and schedules that vary in difficulty) and think that the salary cap is the only thing responsible for that. If you removed the salary cap, but kept all the revenue sharing, you'd theoretically still have a level playing field. I also think it's a paradox that people want teams to be able to sign all their own good free agents but also don't want the same teams to make the playoffs year after year. Player churn is a necessity for that. Now, I agree that the Yankees are out of hand, although they're also out of the playoffs. We also shouldn't ignore the issue that there are bad owners out there. Anybody expecting Jeffrey Loria to win anything in the near or long-term?

I'm fairly optimistic of the potential of the top six. There may not be a true ace in the mix, but they all look like they could be above average. And I'm not overly concerned about any of them falling off a cliff due to health or the league catching up with them. Certainly the way they finished the season, plus what they should have at AAA, should keep the Brewers out of the starting pitching free agent market.

Carlos Gomez is going to put up a WAR around 7 this year. Yeah, he's probably not THAT good, offensively anyways, but he can be substantially worse than that and still be an All Star. Segura is 23 and he's going to finish 2013 substantially above average for his position. JJ Hardy has put up worse WARs than Segura most of his career. Yeah, the Brewers need to be creative in finding talent and they need some of their minor league talent to succeed expectations. And they need their talent to be healthy and avoid suspensions. Still, there is raw talent on the major league roster and in AAA. The Cubs could be healthy in 2014 and it wouldn't get them anywhere. If the Brewers are healthy in 2014, there would be reason to think that they could compete. There aren't a lot of teams that can compete when they're dealing with injuries.

I'm not suggesting building for a window. After the way it worked out for us nobody should be suggesting that. Yeah, getting to the NLCS and running into a red hot Cardinal team was such a bummer of a year. Just unwatchable. The Brewers had a nice run. The problem wasn't the strategy. The problem was that they didn't draft well. Passing on Homer Bailey, for instance. And there was some bad luck, all indications were that if the draft compensation system formula wasn't screwy they would have drafted Mike Trout. Now, they didn't do either of those things, but it points to the fact that there's often a very thin line between success and failure. In general, I think that this team is probably a mid- to upper- 70s win team when you factor in just getting a first baseman which is replacement level for 2014. And they were a low- 80s win team in 2012. So, their true level is probably right around .500. They've actually accumulated some pitching talent and depth at AAA too. They have All Star level talent at CF, SS, and C. Probably LF. And maybe 3B, if Ramirez is healthy in 2014, too. Gennett, Gindl, and Davis have all performed well too. Can they come up with 5 to 8 more wins in 2014 which would vault them into contender status? I don't know, but I'd suggest that it's not that far fetched. I wouldn't say all is rosy, but there certainly is the possibility of a quick turnaround if they're not so snakebit in 2014. And we shouldn't completely dismiss the idea that sometimes being just ok pans out. The Cardinals won a World Series winning only 83 games in the regular season and having guys like Jeff Suppan get hot in the post-season. There have been several Wild Card teams that have advanced all the way. Maybe the Brewers have hit rock bottom, maybe not. But, let's also be mindful that the complete teardown doesn't always work either. The Cubs are relying on Castro and Rizzo to be veteran stars and mentors when their young talent comes up, and that might not work out. The Pirates spent decades in the wilderness. The Mets aren't making much progress. Neither are the Padres despite having scouts rave about their farm system not that long ago. The lack of minor league development seems to be catching up to the Giants. How many years have the Rockies been trying to figure out how to develop pitching? Drafting late hasn't stopped the Cardinals and Braves from developing strong minor league pipelines.

Jesus wept. There are some things that I think management gets the blame for that really aren't their fault. Not acquiring a replacement level first baseman and giving Yuni B all that playing time, are things that I think they truly deserve all the blame for and then some. Freaking Travis Ishikawa is probably worth 5 wins compared to this bunch.

Who says the team is aiming for 78 wins in 2014 and not 88 wins? The Brewers are likely to win more than 73 games this year with a ton of things that went wrong. Why do they project worse for 2014? There's a lot of pessimism for a team that seems to have straightened out the rotation quite a bit by getting young guys with actual stuff experience and is potentially getting back its two best hitters in Braun and Ramirez for 2014. And shouldn't have a black hole at first base. Which isn't to say that there aren't age and injury concerns, but I have a lot more confidence in Thornburg, Peralta with a year under his belt, Nelson, and Hellweg, than I ever did in Fiers, Rodgers, Burgos, and essentially a rookie Peralta. And, seriously, I don't see how anyone can claim Morris, with a .767 OPS in a hitters league, is any sort of known quantity for 2014. Or Halton either, not to excuse a boneheaded refusal to play him by the manager. They wouldn't be getting any playing time on merit in 2014, only on potential, and I'm not sure their potential is all that great. In any event, I'm all for Morris forcing the issue through performance. He hasn't to date. A lot of teams wouldn't even consider handing a job to him after 2013. Why do the Brewers need to aim low? Nobody is ever blocked on a one year contract. If Hart wants to take a paycut and the Doctors say that the risk in minimal, I don't know how anyone can claim that people that have never performed at the MLB level (Gamel), have done relatively little in a cup of coffee without really superior minor league numbers (Halton), or are coming off a year where they scuffled in AAA (Morris), are superior options to anyone you can pick off the street. Travis Ishikawa might be a better option than them in all seriousness. You probably can pencil in Ishikawa and a .760 OPS as replacement level. Maybe you can get more bang for your buck elsewhere, but they're not cutting Morris from the franchise and if his play warrants it and Hart doesn't perform, you can call him up. Otherwise, it's not my money but I don't see how a one year contract is ever a long term setback for a franchise. We all like to remember how the A's cobbled together a team on a budget. One of the things they did was give guys like Matt Stairs and Bartolo Colon opportunities to prove they had gas left in the tank. If Hart wants to do that at a reasonable price, it very well may be the best thing for the team. And if he wants a multi-year deal, sayonara.

If Hart's healthy, and I'll leave that up to the doctors to decide , I don't see what's so bad about having Hart at first base at a cheap price. They'll win more games that way than most other options. If that's not enough to get them over the hump, trade him and move on. The Brewers may spend $3 to $4 million on a reliever on a one year deal while that's too much for a starting first baseman? One that's clearly better than internal options. The way that some people talk about Hart you'd think he's a bum, rather than a solid first baseman. The Brewers are likely to finish in the mid-70s for wins. A year from Hart compared to the bums that have played the position is probably worth 4 to 5 wins which would have pushed the team to around 80 wins. I think there's a good case to be made that Hart is undervalued and on a one year deal he doesn't block anyone that you'd really want to commit to long term.

I'd note that the Reds have to deal with the impending free agency of Choo and Arroyo and in all likelihood they're not going to have very much money to spend. That's potentially a good step back right there. They very well may have peaked as a team. And it's not like their depth is much more impressive than the Brewers'. St. Louis has some guys getting up in years too and hitting free agency. I know they have an impressive minor league system, but we've all seen impressive minor league systems fail to produce at the big league level right away. In general, if you can project a team to 85-90 wins, that's a contender. Maybe not a favorite, but almost all teams that make the playoffs have a little bit of luck working in their favor. At least staying healthy. An 85-87 win team can be turned into a 90 win team with some shrewd deadline deals. We shouldn't assume that the Brewers are the only team ever that has to deal with injuries and disappointing seasons and that everyone else is untouchable. The 2013 Nationals are an example of how quickly a heavy favorite can come back to the pack.

While I can understand the concern over a draft pick, if Attanasio is ok with picking up a veteran and it fits into the payroll, I don't see the issue. I'm not concerned whatsoever with how much money Attanasio makes or loses. He's a successful businessman and not hurting for cash. Gallardo, Lohse, and Peralta are givens at this point. I expect Estrada, Thornburg, Nelson, and Hellweg to get starts at some point next season. Is that enough? Is the quality acceptable to management/ownership? If the answer to either of those questions is no, then I expect that the Brewers will go after someone. I also think it's worthwhile to keep an open mind as we don't know what kind of market it's going to be. If it's a buyers market on pitching, then the smart thing to do is buy. If not, then hold off and address other needs. I agree that the Brewers shouldn't be in any hurry to give up more draft picks, especially in what promises to be a strong draft year. But if there's a good deal to be had, I don't think some dogmatic ideal about building from within matters a whit.

You were spared watching Yuni B start yet another game at 1B. Consider yourself lucky. I figure that since Yuni B is closing in on the Mendoza Line he'll finally get taken out of the lineup soon to spare him the embarrassment of that accomplishment.

Hey, some of us are eating here.

Judging by the domestic box office, Shaun of the Dead, Hot Fuzz, and The World's End would seem to qualify.

There are pitchers on the team that hit better than Maldonado, albeit not Peralta. Still, you're 3 and 0 and doing nothing on the year. Trying to work for a walk was the best option at that point.

Yuni should never start another game for the Brewers. Period. I don't know if there's any point in releasing Yuni now, but he should be seated firmly on the bench and only given ABs/playing time after everyone else available at this point. There are guys available that may be part of the next winning Brewers team. Heck, other than Maldonado and most pitchers, it's not like Yuni's bat is better than anyone else's. The continued presence of Yuni B on this team is a mark against Melvin and RR. A big one. Penciling him in the lineup is something that really calls in the question that talent evaluation and big picture skills of RR.

You'd think a guy hitting under .200 on the season would resist the urge to swing away at 3-0 with the bases loaded. Honestly, a good long ride on the bench is deserved for that.