RobertR

Under what definition is 29 old for a player? I think we're making a mistake to argue age as the cause of the Brewer's downfall. 27 year old Yuni B and Alex Gonzalez would have been equally awful choices for 1B, for instance. Talent is the issue more than age.

Who's dismissing the idea that the Brewers don't have to draft better? The mistakes there should demand that there be changes. I'm not sure I agree with the "old" part though. I'd argue it's not that they've gotten old, but that their young starters weren't very good that's been the key downfall of the team. The only pitchers that they've trotted out over 30 have been Lohse, KRod, and Gonzalez and they've been real strengths. The struggles of Burgos, Fiers, Hellweg, Gallardo, Axford, Estrada, and Peralta don't appear to be age related with Estrada and Axford being the oldest of that group at 29 and 30, respectively. That's simply a lack of talent and guys not being ready more than anything. If anything, the starting rotation was too young and inexperienced. Offensively I'd agree that the Brewers could use an injection of youth at 3B and 2B, and just some talent period at 1B, but other than Aramis who's particularly old that will be back for the 2014 season? Yeah, Weeks and Aoki aren't young at this point but they're not so old that they should be counted out, and Segura, Gomez, Lucroy, Braun, Schaefer, Halton, Morris, Francisco, Gennett, Bianchi, and Maldonado is a young group. I'm more worried about talent than age with this group. Yeah, Lohse and Aramis are a concern going forward and Weeks and Aoki are getting up there, but a) you play a real first baseman and b) you get good health out of Braun, and the starting lineup already looks a lot better going forward for several years. I'd argue that it's not age that's caught up with the Brewers but their financial limitations and free agency. They had a lot of young cheap talent on the team and haven't been able to replace it as they've gotten up in arbitration and free agency because they haven't drafted well. And the fact that they were making playoff runs prevented them from supplementing their minor league system. You want to call it the "success cycle" and I think it's fair. Not that the Brewers couldn't have done a better job of extending their cycle, say if they drafted Homer Bailey instead of Mark Rogers, but I wouldn't characterize the Brewers as a particularly old team where this year's collapse was inevitable.

I really wonder how the precedent of Steve Howe applies to any of these possible suspensions that aren't spelled out in the CBA. I have a hard time imagining that you can be suspended longer for not failing a drug test but there being some evidence which may be entirely circumstantial.

Frankly, I think people are overrating other organizations, besides the Cardinals. Epstein has never built up an organization from scratch. Not without the likes of Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, Manny Ramirez, etc. also on board. Sure, he's had development successes, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Buchholz, and Lester among them, but I think it's a stretch to say that his farm systems have been the reason that the Red Sox have won. The cupboard is a lot barer in Chicago than it ever was in Boston. Sure their plan could work out. It could also go the way of the KC Royals. And, of course, the Pirates should be on the upswing. They've done what the Brewers did when they were bad, cashed in on some early draft picks, but we'll see if they make more out of this success than the Brewers did. It's not always a straight path upwards. Burnett is a free agent after this year and Grilli, Liriano, and Rodriquez are free agents next year. Yeah, they've got Locke, Cole, and Taillon to make up for those losses, but it wouldn't be totally shocking if there are some growing pains and that the Pirates don't draft as well when they're not picking really early. Same with the Reds, a lot of their starting rotation is moving towards free agency in the next couple of years and they haven't made it out of the first round of the playoffs. Votto's contract could be a killer in a few years too. Phillips contract could be ugly by the end too. If they don't win it all in the next few years, they could find themselves in a straitjacket financially. Seriously, the Reds have over $150 million committed to Votto for his mid to late 30s years. He better be a hall of famer for that contract. Melvin's been a ton smarter about handing out contracts for big money than the Reds. All of which is not to be pollyanna-ish about the state of the Brewers and their farm system. But, I think there's a bit of "the grass is greener" going on here too. The Cardinals are likely at the top of their upswing right now and although I don't think they'll be bad any time in the near future, it also wouldn't surprise me if they have a couple of 85 win seasons as some of their stars age. The Reds aren't really improving as much as they're just maintaining at a fairly high level. They might not even make the playoffs this year or get knocked out in the wild card play in. The Pirates are clearly on an upswing, but again, we'll see where they peak and if they're as successful drafting later as they were drafting really early. The Brewers clearly have to get their minors in better shape, and drafting early next year should help. But, I can say that I like their long-term financial flexibility better than the Reds and I think the Cubs have farther to go than is commonly perceived.

Where I come down with the "we can't possibly compete with the Cards, Reds, or Pirates" is the assumption that none of those teams will ever have to deal with injuries or age related declines. Yeah, if they're all healthy and productive, they'll be tough to overtake, but history should tell us that most teams don't have smooth rides over multiple years without something popping up. Take the Nationals who were odds on favorites before the year. Or the Giants, who were World Series champs. Or the Dodgers who spent an absurd sum over the winter. Take the Cards for 2014. Beltran is going to be 37 next year and Molina will be a catcher in his 30s. There's certainly a risk of a decline for both of them. Anybody really convinced that Matt Carpenter is playing at his true level rather than over his head? Toss in a random injury and suddenly they're a lot more vulnerable. Remember how good Anaheim and Boston were supposed to be in 2012? Which isn't to say that the Brewers need to do something silly for one last stab at glory, but I suspect that 90 wins will get you to the playoffs in 2013, 2014, 2015, etc. Injuries, age, "regression to the mean", etc. aren't things that happen only to the Brewers. Which again isn't to say that the Brewers shouldn't be in sell mode, but, for the most part, the things that the Brewers really have to sell are veterans that are underperforming (Gallardo, Weeks) or injured (Hart, Ramirez). Honestly, it wouldn't be all that surprising at this point if Lohse and KRod have the most trade value at the deadline, which I suspect nobody would have predicted about the Brewers in July 2012. Which should be some statement about how fluid baseball can be.

Yeah, drafting is one thing, but I don't see how it's arguable that the trades didn't make the Brewers better in the short and long runs. They ended up not giving up much for a lot of talent in return. Seasons of Sabathia, Grienke, and Segura for a bunch of mediocrity with maybe Odorizzi and Lawrie still on the board is a clear win for the Brewers. Which isn't an argument that they have done a good job of drafting and developing talent lately. They haven't. But, the idea that the Brewers can't compete now because they gave up a lot of talent in those deals, is arguably a false one. It's also an argument that there are more ways to acquire talent than drafting it and slowly letting it move up through the farm system.

St. Louis has to be in the market, although whether they match up well is an obvious question. But a Segura / Kolten Wong combo up the middle would certainly be a pleasure to watch.

If anything, making those trades saved the franchise from years of disappointment and didn't waste the primes of Fielder and Braun. Hindsight being 20/20, I'd do it all over again. I had fun during those playoff runs.

Here's where I disagree, if you can project the team to 85 to 87 wins, that's a contender. Period. Now, I don't know that you can with this bunch given the uncertainty about ARam's health and the declining performance of Weeks and Gallardo, but I don't think the Brewers have ever had a team that projected to 95 wins before a season. There's nothing wrong with putting a team on a field that can compete if a few things go right, with maybe a deadline trade for an impact player to boost an 87 win team to 90+ wins, without sacrificing the future, rather than cashing in all your chips and creating a self fulfilling prophecy. If Billy Beane listened to this sort of advice, he'd never have signed Bartolo Colon. Instead, he's looking at another playoff run. I agree that the Brewers need to make some tough choices at the deadline this year. That said, they're going to have star level players on their team next year under any scenario. Several of them. That's an enormous advantage and an opportunity to compete in a very short amount of time. They'll also likely have the financial wherewithal to sign a free agent or two to shore up a weak position. This team is in a vastly better position to turn it around quickly when your best players are a whole lot better than Jeff Cirillo and the best free agent you could sign was named Jeff Hammonds. It's just as easy to say, the Brewers are two starting pitchers and good health away from competing. And it's possible that one of those pitchers is in the upper levels of their system already.

3/5ths of an average / above average rotation is a bad thing? I think there's reason to be optimistic about Jimmy Nelson being a part of that rotation starting sometime next year. Let's say we're looking at Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, Nelson, and Gorzelanny. I don't think it's too big a leap to project that rotation as average-ish. Yeah, it may lack a true ace, but there have been plenty of playoff teams without a true ace. Couple that with an elite offense and a competent, although probably not elite bullpen, and maybe an acquisition at the trade deadline and there are certainly teams with less of a chance. I think there's a lot of writing off a team which has, at least, 4 potential All Stars (Braun, Gomez, Segura, and Lucroy) in the starting lineup. Better health and a better bench could go a long ways. One of the keys to winning is to have stars, and the Brewers have stars. Personally, I don't have an issue of seeing what you can put together via offseason acquisitions and giving it a go as long as you have MVP type stars in the lineup. If it doesn't work out, you sell at the deadline again.

I blame Travis Ishikawa. OK, not really, but the lack of a viable first baseman this year was certainly felt. The medical / training staff certainly haven't covered themselves in glory either, but perhaps that's just bad luck. But, this certainly was a group effort. Especially by the starting rotation, minus Lohse who's been fine. Peralta started slow and Gallardo has certainly disappointed, but at least they've had their moments. Beyond that, blech.

I'm confident that next year the Brewers won't get the worst OPS out of first base since 1947(!). That's historically awful.

Robert I agree in that Lucroy is core worthy. I just keep looking at the spectrum of what are the Brewers capability of competing 2014/15/16? Our big problem is that not only are we behind in the standings today, but our entire minors are far and away behind every, single, NL, Central, Team! So we need to catch up some how. If we aren't going to compete for 2-3 years then expending the players that are pretty much due to leave the team in that time is a worthy idea. Gomez/Lucroy are core guys for us in that term but we expended our core that should have been here in trading for C.C. and Grienke and Marcum. And yes Grienke brought back Segura/Hellweg/Pena but you gotta remember it would be Odorizzi/Cain/Escobar at this moment in time. Players that will/and should provide immediate value now and the foreseeable 3seasons. Lawrie too. It's about depth in talent that we lost and the timing is delayed approximately 2-3 years currently. When our draft picks catch up to being added to the team. So my focus is to look ahead to what the core could be 3 years from now for the 5years after that. Who's going to be the core of that team? Lucroy/Gomez don't fit that scenario(though Gomez could you just imagine the payday coming should he keep his pace up is outside our ability) So if Lucroy isn't going to fit as a core guy 3 years from now, I look at making him available in trade and riding Maldonado for the seasons we are rebuilding. You would take on 2-4years from now ML ready Upside talent in return thus adding to what the core would become in 2016 and beyond. Or we wait now, next season, and trade Lucroy later and the return becomes 2-4years from now ML ready talent that then makes their appearance on the team 2018-2020 vs. 2016-2018. It's the same with Gomez. The longer we wait to trade these two the tougher is may be to really collect a full roster of high upside talented players to all mesh in to one for a stretch before Braun's swan song. That's the other thought if we act now with these trades my hope in timing fits in to 2016-2018 before the end of Braun. If we wait 2 seasons we're talking 2018-2020 and Braun is likely not going to be impact player we need rather the guy beginning to make his exit from baseball. Thinking like Yount who's final 4years were of the .700+OPS types not the near .900 it was in his peak age years. I just keep looking at it as hey we trade Aoki or ARam get a couple top 100 prospects great. Now we have 2 to look forward to helping our team. The rest of the NL Central who we are trailing now? They have 5 or more a piece. Cincy/St.L./Chi/Pitt they are going to get better or replace the players exiting with as good or better players over the next 2-3 years. Competing with these teams now through 2016 just is going to be tough. Why are you only looking at prospects? The Brewers have 3 to 5 guys on the team right now that are better than a lot of teams cores. Braun, Segura, Lucroy, Gomez, and a healthy ARam, is a hell of a lot of talent. They're better than anyone the Cubs are throwing out there. The Brewers problem isn't that they don't have talent in their system, because that talent includes the major leagues. Their problem is that they've surrounded that talent with a bunch of sub-replacement level garbage in the starting rotation and at first base. Now, that first base problem is largely due to injuries and stubbornness, but it's not hard to make the case that the Brewers are only 2 to 3 starting pitchers away. Yeah, I know, effective starting pitching is the toughest thing to acquire in MLB, but it also points to what they need to address. Peralta, by many standards, is a top 100 prospect. Nothing says that he won't figure it out and become at least league average soon. Who says Hellweg can't be effective? Or Halton/Morris can't manage to be league average? 2013 is lost for a variety of reasons, but I don't think it's being too optimistic to say that Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, and Hellweg could be the core of a reasonable rotation in 2014. Which isn't to argue that the Brewers shouldn't field offers for Gallardo and Lohse, but only to argue that it's not written in stone that the Brewers can't compete in 2014 with better health and development of some of the prospects they already have. One of the things it's worth noting, it's easy to replace below replacement level performance and improve substantially. Heck, top 100 prospect lists aren't written in stone. Nobody had Lucroy as a top 100 prospect, and he's now, easily, one of the top 10 catchers in the game. The Brewers are quite capable of finding league average players via trade or free agency. Yeah, they should move some guys now, but let's not rewrite history and say that the Brewers had no chance before the season started. At least before injuries set in. The Brewers aren't in nearly the dire straits that they're being depicted at as much of their young or in the prime talent is producing at the major league level. And not a pending free agent in the bunch. This is a group that's much different than the Pirates of the last 20 years because there are legitimate stars in the bunch, at some of the toughest to fill positions. I'll point to the Kansas City Royals as a team which not too long ago was argued as having one of the all time best collections of prospects. And that's not amounted to much. Which isn't to say that the Brewers don't have to do a better job of drafting and developing than they have. But, part of that goal is to develop stars for the major league club. The goal is not to prematurely get rid of your stars on the major league club so that you rank better on prospect lists.

Being at least average offensively among second basemen is "done as an everyday player"? Granted, it looks like Weeks' best days are behind him and he's not living up to his contract, but that's a premature burial worthy of Poe.

I'd trade Maldonado, Gennett, Schafer, or Francisco in a split second for a league average starting pitcher or third baseman signed to a reasonable contract. They're complementary pieces, at best, not pieces you build around. I think the obvious suspects of Braun, Segura, Gomez, and Lucroy are the core. None of them, other than Segura, may be untradeable but you don't trade any of them without getting someone that projects as a star in return. Seriously, have we all forgotten what it's like to have a catcher, shortstop, and centerfielder who can't hit? Aoki, Gallardo, and maybe Henderson are probably on the next tier down. And Peralta (and some of the pitching prospects) will be given every chance in the world to succeed. You're probably not asking for top prospects in return, but you're not giving them away for salary relief or with the idea that you can find their replacement cheaply on the free agent market. Obviously, you shop around Ramirez, due to age. And, yeah, Weeks probably isn't worth his contract, although he's hit his way up to average second baseman which should silence the critics a bit. Obviously, there are bullpen arms that should be shopped around.

For one, 3 or 4 games wouldn't make much difference. They'd still be too far out of the race. Maybe they'd have a very outside shot at the 2nd wild card, but that's about it. And also that's assuming that Morris could've put up a WAR of 2-3, seeing as Yuni is at around -1. I highly doubt that would've been anywhere close to the case. He maybe would've gotten them 2 more wins at best. The main problem has been the starting rotation. The struggles of Weeks and Lucroy for the first 2 months and the Ramirez injury were far more of a problem for the offense than who was playing 1B. More than Yuni has played first base. Fangraphs has the Brewers as sporting a -3.2 WAR out of first base. In less than half a season. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=23&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 That's astonishingly bad. Yeah, a first baseman alone wasn't going to turn around the season, starting pitching is a problem too, but it certainly would have helped. A real first baseman and perhaps the Brewers are looking at a 35 and 38 mark at this point in the season, which doesn't exactly put you in the hunt for playoffs but at least leaves you in the hunt for a winning record. Who knows, a real first baseman, the arrival of Hellweg, and Peralta making any sort of progress and perhaps it wouldn't be a completely lost season. In any event, it's completely unacceptable what the Brewers got out of first base. It's possibly historically bad. And, I think it's hard to understate just how much it's affected the season.

And Francisco already washed out of one organization. And it's hard to be successful when you swing at garbage all the time. I'm sure Jeff Francouer had better AAA numbers than Halton and Morris too, but when the book goes out that pitchers don't have to throw strikes to get you out, nothing less than a change in approach is going to fix that. I've seen no signs of that from Francisco. But, as I said, if you don't think Halton or Morris are ready, that's a reason to leave them in AAA. If you do, there's no reason to not get them regular ABs at the major league level. Nobody is being blocked based on performance on the major league club, that's for sure.

In all seriousness I wonder how this season stacks up for historical awfulness from first base.

I do think there's some overreaction going on in this thread. Considering all that's gone wrong there's enough core talent that a league average first baseman could have pushed the team considerably closer to 0.500. A core of Braun, Segura, Lucroy, and perhaps Gomez is a leg up on a lot of franchises. Surround that core with averageness and you can contend.

The thing is that it quickly becomes more than 'a few AB's'. Through June 20, Yuni had 44 ABs in June. That's 66 in a month. We're talking 200 ABs over a three month period. I'd rather give that to Bianchi and see how he holds up in a semi-regular basis. I totally agree that some guys are better off in the minors. But a guy like Bianchi should just get a little playing time to see if he's part of the future of this club. That's my opinion. Yeah, it's not like anyone thinks Bianchi is any kind of starter in the future. He's never going to get regular ABs except for in case of injury, so he might as well learn on the job at this point. At this point, I think Yuni B is irrelevant to the conversation. While he might have some use on a contending team just looking for a backup with a floor, although that's obviously not as a regular first baseman, he's certainly expendable on a struggling team neither being part of the future or a key to getting back into the race. To me the question is: Is Halton (or Morris) ready? If so, he probably should be up getting some regular ABs until Hart comes back. There's really no need to protect him from Super Two status at this point. It's not like Juan Francisco is playing so well that he's earned a ton of ABs. I can see the argument that getting irregular ABs isn't likely to help, but honestly it's hard for me to figure out how the Brewers could get less out of first base as it is. Call him up, give him some regular ABs, and it's likely the best thing for the Brewers for the present and future. Hell, I'd like to see someone out there that can actually play the position.

Yeah and a good part of the reason the season is down the toilet goes directly to not going with the best option in the organization in the first place. They literally cost the team three or four games by not taking their lumps with their best option. It was a self fulfilling prophecy.

Can we please just call up Hunter Morris already? Saving a couple hundred thousand in Super Two vs killing your season with sub-replacement level "first basemen " makes zero sense. The Brewers have an upgrade and it's driving me nuts that they stubbornly refuse to utilize it.

While early first round picks matter, being able to find talent later is what separates good minor league systems from bad. When was the last time the Cardinals had an early first round pick? And, if you're only hitting on your first round pick, you're unlikely to have a deep system. Yeah, Weeks, Fielder, and Braun were early first rounders. Hardy, Hart, Gallardo, and Lucroy weren't. Nor were Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi, and Lorenzo Cain. After the early first round is where you really see the teams that know what they're doing. The Brewers haven't been at that level in a while. Some of it was bad luck, the Brewers wanted Mike Trout but because of a stupid compensation system that Angels got him instead. But, the idea that "if only the Brewers tanked it will make their minor league system better" is, I believe, misplaced. They need to hit on multiple players throughout the draft. Their lack of scouting to the depth of the draft is what's hurting them, even more than where they're drafting. There are plenty of early busts too.

The franchise's inability to develop young pitching is the biggest blemish against the Melvin regime (along with all the draft picks wasted on pitchers). Even then, it's much too early to write off Peralta and some of the others. Going in to the season, there was every reason to expect that the Brewers would have one of the best offenses in baseball. Heck, if you told me in the winter what Gomez and Segura were doing, I'd think that the Brewers would be far and away the best offense in the NL. Melvin fixed the bullpen. Yeah, we all knew starting pitching could be a potential downfall, but certainly there was also upside to Gallardo, Estrada, and Peralta. There are plenty of franchises that had less reason for optimism in 2013 than the Brewers. We don't have to rewrite history here. Injuries certainly didn't help either. Neither did a medical staff that badly misjudged the recovery time for Hart. A real first baseman would probably be worth 3 or 4 wins, maybe more, at this point considering the Betancourt/Gonzalez platoon was worth something like -2.7 WAR. That alone pushes the season from disaster into Washington Nationals disappointment territory.

Sure, it makes sense to trade him when you don't expect to be competitive during the length of his contract. I don't know that we're at the stage where we're writing off the next couple of years yet. And, if so, Braun and Aoki probably need to be in the discussion before Gomez. Either way, keep him or trade him, I think it's clear that Gomez has more trade value now than he did in the offseason. And you want to trade a player when his perceived value is highest. In that sense, I think it's clear that keeping Gomez around was the right move. You can get more if you trade him now with several years locked in at a reasonable rate than you could previous when he could just bolt to free agency. If it was a gamble, I'd argue that it was a gamble that worked. I'm frustrated with a lot of the franchise and Melvin's moves and non-moves too. But it doesn't mean that every move Melvin made needs a lot of scrutiny. Gomez and Segura are two bright spots in an otherwise dismal year, for instance.