sbrylski

To expand on the concept above: I ran a relatively quick study to explore and support how many innings and how much performance can be expected to be lost each year into a multi-year contract. I started by viewing the 2003 pitching leaderboards from six seasons ago, as a five year contract is what C.C. Sabathia was offered by the Brewers, and therefore the timeframe most relevant to this discussion. I selected every player to have thrown over 200 innings that year to be my initial sample. In order to eliminate factors that could have a negative effect on the accuracy of the study, such as player retirement or more extreme talent loss as a player approaches the age of 40, I threw out all pitchers aged 30 years or older. This left 25 pitchers as my final sample, with ages ranging between 22 and 29 and their average age about one year younger than Sabathia's 28. The following is a table of the average number of innings pitched during each season of the 25 pitcher sample. 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Innings 216.3 185.5 172.0 142.5 125.1 127.5 % Change -14.3 -7.3 -17.1 -12.2 1.9 Geometric Average % Change per Season = -10.04% This result falls in line quite well with other studies I have read on the subject, and the expected loss of 10.04% of innings each season is incredibly close to the generally accepted 10% loss that is often used by baseball statisticians. I also looked at the number of games started each season by my sample of pitchers. Below is the data table. 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Starts 33.0 29.2 27.1 23.0 19.8 20.4 Change -3.8 -2.1 -4.1 -3.2 0.6 Average Change per Season = -2.5 This sample so far has shown that a pitcher's expected number of innings per season should be lowered 9.8% each year and their expected number of starts should be lowered by 2.5. These numbers fit together, as a 9.8% reduction of 200 innings pitched is a reduction of 16 innings, approximately 2.5 starts given an average start is about 6 innings. http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d175/sbrylski06/pic1-1.png While I had the data at hand, I also looked at expected changes in K/9, BB/9, HR/9 and finally ERA. Below are the graphed results. http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d175/sbrylski06/pic2.png The sample's K/9 rates decreased by 0.127 per season, while their BB/9 rate increased by 0.019 per season. So not only must a club be weary of handing out a lengthy contract to a pitcher in fear of injury and reduced workloads, decreases in performance should be expected as well. Not that its surprising, though. Notice the high level of fluctuation in the HR/9 graph. Partly due to using a modest size sample, but it also is merely an illustration of how much home run rates can vary for pitchers year to year, as home runs are a much less frequent occurrence relative to strikeouts and walks. The HR/9 rates for this sample increased by 0.005 per season. Plug the above three average change in rates into a fielder independent ERA formula, I will use FIP, and we can see the expected change in results from year one to year six. FIP = (13*HR + 3*BB - 2*K) / IP 1st Season FIP = 3.99 6th Season FIP = 4.21 That's a loss of .22 points of ERA due to diminished skills. If we look at the actual data, the pitchers lost about .1 points of ERA per season, which is even more significant. 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ERA 3.82 4.06 4.03 4.67 4.26 4.29 Change -.24 .03 -.64 .41 -.04 The difference between the FIP estimates and the actual data is likely due in part to the modest size sample, but could also suggest and support that the pitchers are losing other skills each season, such as the capability to suppress their BABIP below league average.

Yeah Clancy, are you serious? Its a fun post, but definitely not based in reality.

The only question I have is what will his official mocking nickname be when he goes through his first cold streak. Jorge Foolio

Wow, major omission on my part. I watch it way more often on youtube than on TV, so that might be why I overlooked it.

Our usability director sucks at using Yuku.

Am I the only one who didn't really notice the apparently abnormal snowfall last winter? Seemed like just another winter to me, for the most part.

I don't watch much variety these days. The first three are the only real non-news shows I currently watch regularly. 1. The Office - Hilarious, and refreshing that it doesn't need laugh tracks. 2. Seinfeld - I think I watched it too much, therefore the slip from its long standing #1 position on my list. 3. Still Standing - I find it the most hilarious of the "normal" sitcoms. Not embarrassed to watch the Lifetime network when this is on. 4. Curb Your Enthusiam - Seinfeld without the annoying laugh tracks and new characters. 5. South Park - Its hit or miss, but the hits are hilarious. 6. Lingo - Fun to play a long, crazy Chuck Woolery as the host, and a hot assistant. 7. Family Fued - All versions are great. Again, fun to play along. 8. Degrassi - Didn't think of it until BDK mentioned it, but he's right, incredibly unintentionally funny. 9. GUTS - Shout out to my youth, great show. First there was the Aggro Crag, then the Mega Crag, now, the Super Agro Crag! Let's go to Mo for the rules, MO! 10. Entourage - I'll give it a mention, as I watched about a season and a half and liked it more than I expected, but it really wasn't my style.

I wonder if he'll still have the biggest head in the league over there. I wish him luck.

Blyleven, Hederson, Raines

The only real tough one is Gagne. My fear is he would get something around $7M+ per year. If I was more confident he would get around $4M a year I think it would be a good deal even if he did accept Arby's. He can at most receive a 20% pay decrease. So the minimum he would receive through arbitration is $8 million.

I think he's saying Gagne's production is likely to go up a notch next season, and his pay would go down through arbitration. Not really a reason in itself to keep or try to keep him around.

Situation is important in WPA. WPA/LI neutralized for situation, however, by valuing WPA+ performances more highly if they were accomplished in low leverage, or unimportant, situations. For example, if a player adds 50% chance of winning during his AB in a average situation, he gets .5 of WPA/LI points. If he adds 50% in a twice as important as situation, he only gets .25 points. So it doesn't give credit to players who appear in high leverage situations, as the player doesn't really control that.

Wow, Earth is a funny place.

A Cuban White Sox Interactive poster compared him to the LAA Kendry Morales. So he's going to have a .300 OBP? Viciedo is Cuban and is hyped like Morales, but its silly to compare them at this point unless you believe he won't make a successful transition, because that is what defines Morales at this point in his career.

I would assume he had other offers for a minor league contract so to stand out they offered a big league contract. Otherwise you're right, probably wouldn't have needed to.

He's not curveball first. He's fastball and then slider. He uses the curveball as a show me pitch it looks like. Exactly. He threw 96 pitches in the bigs last year, and only 8 were curveballs: FB: 47.9% SL: 39.4% CB: 8.5% CH: 4.3%

Pretty neat. He's got an interesting slider too, that appears to break almost 9 to 3. I'm pretty stoked about this signing, as much as you can be about a guy I hadn't heard of before I saw this thread and has just 4 innings of major league experience. Pitch velocities per Fangraphs, in his time in the bigs: FB: 83.7 SL: 73.4 CB: 55.0 CH: 73.0 And he had 38 strikeouts of left handers in the 76 he faced last year in the minors, just 2 walks. A 0.27 FIP vLHB, and a solid 2.33 vRHB. Everywhere you look is a promising statistic. He's like the new Joe Thatcher, only potentially better.

Oh my, don't leave us Jim. Jim needs to sign a lifetime contract for monthly blank checks to stay covering the Brewers. The guy is tremendous. I honestly would be shocked if I ever heard another single person that does a better job than either Powell or Uecker. We have the best two radio guys in the business.

I would much much rather have that Sheets deal than Sabathia for 5 years, $100M. Not even close in my book. I'll loosely second. I think we would be making a mistake if we don't capitalize on the apparently weak Sheets market.

Wasn't sure where to put this, and actually sat on it for a few days, but anyone else notice this? "Other than that, I can't comment." Something else going on with the Giants? Or Fielder or Hardy? (PeaveyFury's most recent comment about what DM says to the press in the KRod/Fuentes thread is what got me to post this.)

Still can't quite figure out a way to praise this guy, other than saying he's not horrible. He was decent as a starter last year, yet held a very mediocre K rate. In the two most recent years he pitched exculsively out of the pen (2005, 06) were basically his worst years, though a smaller sample. I can't call him anything more than a Dave Burba/Rick Helling (during their time with the Brewers) at best.

crewcrazy, did they have his walk rates listed too at all?

Love the jerseys, first of all. And I agree with crewcrazy that the Sox had a huge advantage in netting him. I think Viciedo is going to be pretty good, but it should take him at least a year to improve and adjust. Cuban baseball is roughly equivalent to single A (AA at the very best), so his competition was not great. From his picture, he looks pretty filled out already. I wonder how much room there is for power growth. He's not exactly a huge home run hitter as is, so he might have a lower power ceiling. Has anyone seen him compared to any current major leaguers? I'd guess someone like a switch hitting Melvin Mora if he pans out. Anyone want to back me on that?

Marcel's is generally one of the poorer projections systems, due to its simplicity. In Gamel and Escobar's case, their projections are largely just the projected league average, plus the few AB's they got in the bigs last year. Just those stats, very heavily regressed to the mean. Essentially worthless.

Does anyone else think Dayan Viciedo would be a much better risk to take? Ramirez got a 4 year / $4.75 million contract from the Sox last year. If we are going to toss a few million at a foreign player, let's make it the 19 year old 3B with tremendous upside.