MNBrew

Stats tell part of the story but not all. Fielding stats beyond errors are just flat out harder to quantify, and I'll put a lot more faith in my eyes and gut far more so with fielding than with hitting & pitching. Weeks flat-out blew games by botching double plays that never went as an error. The Brewers should've easily had lots more double plays but so many chances to turn 2 with Weeks in the game are a total crapshoot. And that's just one element of it. The balls that Durham gets to, by and large he makes the plays. Same cannot be said about Weeks to anything near the same degree of certainty. What a guy could/should get to is far more subjective.

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but how is he worse defensively? Range isn't everything. The fact is that Rickie can't make a play easily or well a large number of the times the ball makes it into his glove. Durham plays smart and doesn't make a high number of errors and can turn the DP. Ray Durham's defense doesn't hurt the team. Rickie Weeks' often does.

All along I thought we'd been hearing that the Brewers had to decide by today whether or not to pick up the options on not just Cameron & Counsell but also on Torres. Personally I think they should. While it got headlines when they acted on each of the former two, I'm quite surprised that it's now 11 p.m. and still there's been no mention anywhere I've found about the status of Torres' contract option. Is there any news at all to be found on this?

I'm not sure a series of major moves are what will happen. That said, I'll "play ball" with this idea and pull together trains of thought from various other threads... (note: Cameron's option picked up today. No word on Torres yet but I'm hoping for the same news on him.) Not necessarily great crystal ball-type thinking here. Just trying to piece together some ideas. - Re-sign Sabathia - sign Randy Johnson - Suppan + possible B-caliber prospect to TX for Saltalamacchia & Blalock -- we come out ~$3M ahead - (optional: Fielder moved somewhere for a couple young studs (creativity's not flowing well here, sorry)) - Hall traded anywhere for anything -- preferably something like PITT got from us for Torres -- heck, send him to Pittsburgh for the rest of Torres' family -- maybe a net of a $2-3M saved here after including cash to trade partner to offset some of Hall's cost - Sheets ($10M), Gagne ($10M), Turnblow ($3.2M), Counsell (hallelujah! $3.4M), & Capuano ($3+M; minor league deal + NRI) salaries off the books -- basically $30M in salary relief right there! - Scrappy, Punto-like #5 IF signed who could be regular starter at multiple positions if need be - Re-sign Shouse; also Mota if the price is right In the field: OF: Braun - Cameron - Hart IF: Blalock - Hardy - Weeks - Fielder C: Kendall Bench: Rivera, Saltalamacchia, Kapler, Gwynn, Punto-type Rotation: Sabathia, Gallardo, Randy Johnson, Bush, Parra Bullpen: Torres, Riske, McClung, Villanueva, Shouse, Stetter, Mota (Dillard & DeFelice waiting for an open spot, Capuano possibly available by mid-year?)

I like your spirit. Not a bad call for creativity, ILDB, but highly unlikely. Being around Twins talk everyday, here are some points: - The Twins don't lack a big bat, esp. at 1B: perennial MVP candidate Justin Morneau, who's a better hitter (BA, doubles, & triples, and no shabby HR hitter either), run producer (370 RBIs the past 3 yrs vs. 302 for Prince), & defender, plus has no weight problem to speak of. Doesn't have Prince's temper but does have one significant character flaw: he loves the Vancouver Canucks. - The Twins are almost as LH heavy as the Brewers are RH heavy. The Twins keep talking about acquiring RH power. Prince wouldn't solve that problem. - Between Young, Gomez, Span, Cuddyer, & Kubel, the Twins have 5 starting-caliber OFs to fill 3 starting spots and DH. They're likely to deal some of that depth for more pitching (esp. bullpen), 3B, &/or RH power. - Liriano to the Twins is like Gallardo to the Brewers. Any conversations where other GMs bring up Liriano are extremely short conversations.

I don't like spending much dough on folks some would consider retreads, but Randy Johnson's no re-tread, just a Hall of Famer in the waning years of his career. He sure would be an upgrade from Jeff Suppan, only likely a bit less healthy on average these days (much better K rate, ERA diff of >1.00). I'd still hope to see CC back. Investing too much in Sheets is like continually putting water in a leaky bucket -- at the right angle it works famously, but too often the angle's not right and the results are not worth the hassle of the bucket. I'm not sure if they could get him, but the Brewers could do a whole lot worse than Randy Johnson.

Maddux is a known commodity and has had many notable successes to go along with a usual number of failures. He was a good pitching coach with solid credibility. Ultimately the players have to deliver. Most pitchers obviously felt Maddux was giving them good stuff to go on. I'm more inclined to think that only the exceptionally good and bad hitting & pitching coaches will have much of a noteworthy impact on their players' performances.

I'm not disagreeing on the 4A possibility. A great '07 means he's shown something. Sustaining that something and having enough of a chance to ever do it with regularity are entirely different matters and probably a better gauge for what he might do in the long run. Be that as it may, the guy did show something.

Shown nothing at all in the majors yet? Granted, he may amount to being not much more than a one-hit wonder in the baseball sense, but Joe Dillon's rock-solid 2007 (AAA and Milwaukee) undermines your whole premise.

$3.4M for what he gave the Brewers is at least 2x too much, maybe 3x what his production is worth. Great guy. Good clubhouse/team player/leader. Solid D. Not worth anything more than $1.5M at the most, really more like $1.1M or $1.2M. They keep showing signs of wanting him back in some way, though, which to me doesn't really make the team better. He does most things solidly and only stinks at hitting. My only lingering question is this: If the Brewers knew this sort of move was coming, why didn't they do it sooner so Joe Dillon didn't have to be DFA'd upon the arrival of Casey McGehee?

Offering Gagne arby is getting overly greedy for draft picks. I think at best he may be a Type B free agent, in which case it's hardly worth the risk. Getting greedy for draft picks conjures images of the whole Graffanino/Counsell affair a few years ago which ended up sealing Jeff Cirillo's unfortunate ticket out of town. Cirillo still would've given the Brewers much more than Joe Dillon did in '08, and I really like Dillon. Cirillo also might've meant fewer ABs for Weeks along the way, and Cirillo still = good defense, which would've been a huge upgrade over Hall, Weeks, & even Fielder at 1B (not that I'd've benched Fielder for Cirillo).

McGehee wore #27 in Chicago. Maybe that's why Dillon's gone. I don't understand FTC's comment about how McGehee's much cheaper than Dillon. Dillon would be lucky to be making $500K in the bigs. $100K, while a ton of jing to most of us, is chump change on a major league team's payroll. I also don't understand the revisionist history that Dillon's now suddenly pretty much worthless (there's no actual way to know -- KNOW, I'm not talking about projecting, but actually knowing -- yet if the .213 or whatever this year is all he's capable of now, or maybe somewhere between that and his '07 numbers). You need role players, and not all of them are going to be Gold Glovers or have 20+ HR power. Dillon was intended to be a poor man's Jeff Cirillo with a little lesser glove but more versatility. He never had lots of pop, and guys like him who take a good approach at the plate and don't generally hurt you (which rules out Craig Counsell's negative offense) belong in the bigs, too. Did Cirillo's lack of power make him a worthless addition to the Brewers' roster in '05 & '06? Hardly. You need smart hitters, too, and Dillon has shown he has it in him. The bigger question is if that's now all behind him or if there's some of it left. And it's not as though it would cost any team big bucks to find out, just a roster spot Dillon would inevitably still have to earn. I don't mean to suggest Dillon's the next Gabe Kapler (or '07 Joe Dillon) waiting to happen again. But his success is recent enough not to merit at least a little consideration. In other words, I'm just hoping his '09 AAA deal w/ NRI is with the Brewers rather than another team. If he's not good enough to make the team, then the Crew is that much farther ahead than last year in their bench depth.

It's at least small consolation that the team we lost to became the WS champs. And it sure was cool to see Jenkins have such a great moment tonight -- and be unafraid to show his enthusiasm. As others have said, though, I'm glad it's over so we can start seeing now what will unfold with the Brewers' offseason.

Probably not a bad pickup considering Mike Lamb is a goner (not a bad thing) and Bill Hall's roster spot needs to turn into a useful reliever via a Melvin trade. I loved what Joe Dillon did in '07 and he still had a decent OBP in the bigs in '08 until his September callup, when Yost let him bat 1-2x/wk. Dillon's not likely valued highly enough to take up a 40-man spot with anyone, so hopefully Melvin's convincing him that it'd be worth signing that AAA contract with an NRI with the Brewers, where they do value his positives and know him well enough, instead of with any other team.

Fleehaw, DeJesus walks less than Cameron. Cameron's career walk rate is better than DeJesus' (.127 BB/AB to .094 for DeJesus).

As much as Cameron's lower BA and high K rates drive me nuts, DeJesus' career OBP is only .360 to Cameron's .340. That's a notable difference but not huge. Cameron's career OPS is slightly higher (.788 to .782). Cameron's career walk rate is much better (.127 BB/AB to .094). Cameron is just plain faster (3x as many SBs/AB and a 79% SB success rate vs. 56%). Cameron has better power and is superior defensively. A switch to David DeJesus is mostly a lateral move if not a bit of an overall drop off. It would accomplish three things: higher BA, lower K rate, & another LH bat. All in all, as much as I'm not totally in love with Cameron's total game, I think he offers the Brewers more than DeJesus does unless the point simply is to make a change, the result of which is a deck that at most is only as stacked as the current one, although perhaps slightly less so. (sorry - multiple edits for grammar & flow of thought)

I'm not suggesting it's a perfect solution, but... The Brewers did not hesitate to use Hart in CF at times before the Bill Hall experiment and he was one of the best options that way on the team at that time. I don't think they're totally scared to use him there. But I think they're quite aware that his skills lend themselves defensively best to RF, as well as that they're definitely better off with a legit MLB-caliber starting CF manning the position. Hart is also among the best athletes on the team. The guy's a 5-tool player. Even when his offense went to heck, his defense was still very solid. The guy makes plays and not just the easiest ones. I do find some of the questioning of his defense in the various discussions somewhere between odd and frustrating. Why? Because a few odd plays here and there get re-hashed so often in these discussions that by the time the winter's mostly over, a many folks on this site are going to be completely convinced that he's a worse defensive player than Jose Canseco was by the end of his career (or perhaps the 2nd coming of Izzy Alcantara). It's happened before on this site with other players and especially with Hart's offensive slump in September, some folks here inevitably will get carried away and start deciding that he has major holes in all aspects of his game and he's therefore a better trade chip than long-term member of the Brewers. Everything else positive in his whole development surely must've been a fluke. I understand the logical notions of selling high and considerations re: the ease of replaceability (if that's a word). Maybe I get tired of some of the selective revisionist history that goes on here at times. An equivalent overreacting or lost-perspective response would've been to suggest that because Ryan Howard couldn't hardly buy a hit in the first two rounds of the playoffs -- we all saw it, after all -- he's clearly not a clutch player, can't contribute when it counts, and the Phillies are better off playing Greg Dobbs or Lou Dobbs or Lah-ti-Dobbs at 1B and trading Howard to re-stock their pipeline of highest-end prospects since this is surely a new career trend as opposed to a simple, poorly timed, multi-series slump. Melvin has been working to get the guy signed to a long-term contract. First, that's no coincidence. Hart's success has not been a fluke. Maybe the slump will actually create some doubt in Hart's mind that he'd get top dollar elsewhere and he'd be more inclined to consider long-term alternatives with the Brewers. Who knows? I'm sorry if this comes off as excessive grumbling. The negative emotional reaction to Hart's lousy last month or two is totally justified. It's just not a smart basis for making long-term decisions about Hart or most any other player, especially when there's a significant amount of mitigating information fairly readily available.

The thing is, Hart had 1000 more things going for him that Hall never did. Hart also struggled a few times early in the year in the minors at a new level but then would kick it in. Other than the real crappy pitch selection in August & September, Hart & Hall really are such totally different players.

The Twins are loaded with OFs and have the very inexpensive Randy Ruiz and his RH power (which they sorely lack) to back up Morneau at 1B. I doubt the Twins would have any use for Nelson. As I've said, I don't think the guy's worth obtaining. For the Twins, who need more and better relief pitching, if Boof's not among their best options, at least they know what they have in him as a fall-back. In Melvin-speak, in other words, I don't think they're motivated to move him unless the deal makes them a better overall team. Brad Nelson wouldn't do so because they don't really have a clear need for him.

Quoth TH: "If the Brewers don't exercise that option, they would have to find another center fielder because they have shown no inclination to give Tony Gwynn Jr. a shot at that job. But Cameron is one of many right-handed, strikeout-prone hitters on the team and GM Doug Melvin said the other day that he needs to inject some left-handed, on-base types into the lineup for 2009." Let's look at this: 1. Some folks are tearing up and outright dissing the last sentence of this quote. Relative to other CFs, Cameron has plenty of value. Other than maybe Grady Sizemore and a few other top-end guys, Cameron's at least a solid if not above-average alternative. Even at $10M, he's still reasonably priced for the whole package he brings. 2. Others who are equally intelligent but tend to place value differently than the average BF.net poster are relieved that Melvin at least sees the same problem we all do and publicly acknowledges the direction where the solution lies. Ultimately there is a problem here. Hall's a huge culprit. Weeks is to a slightly lesser extent thanks to his OBP but still has large, frustrating holes in his game; but due to his overall promise the Brewers also don't seem likely to discard/move him just yet, either. Given the picture as painted, Cameron's the other primary culprit, not to mention the most expensive. The Brewers, most would agree, need to have some decent money available to address well-demonstrated needs. Like it or not, neither side is totally wrong and no solution is without its drawbacks. The thing we're all waiting for is for the Brewers to make their decision on Cameron's option. That'll end a good deal of the debate. Melvin's right on the nature of the problem and where the solution lies. What remains to be seen is simply how they'll choose to address the problem -- and eventually something's going to have to give in order to do so.

Blackburn & Span for Hardy + something would be potentially reasonable. That'd be buying below-radar on Blackburn and buying high on Span. Still not sure that I'd put Hardy out there in any deals, though. Blackburn & Span for Hall and an A- pitcher or pitching prospect? Not as likely but more Brewers-justifiable.

Hart actually had a bad last four months. He batted .239 with a .263 OBP the second half of the year. His OPS was .659 the second half of the year. None of his last four months had an OBP above .310. That is not that good. I really like Hart and don't think he is a guy to trade right now with his value being low, but his collapse the second half of the year leaves a lot to be desired.Dissect Hart's ugly prolonged slump however you like, but it's very much out of keeping with everything he's done over his professional career. In the long run, he's still a 5-tool guy with a track record for solid, steady production, and guys like that don't just grow on trees -- not affordably, anyway. Hart to me is as much of a keeper as anyone else on tigerbrew's list. I'd love to see Weeks earn his way onto that list, too, but his track record justifies all skepticism.

Not a bad idea, but those are guys the Twins are looking to build around, not ship off almost regardless of the return (think: Matt Garza & Jason Bartlett for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, & Jason Pridie).

Al, I tend to agree with you a lot, but watching Bonser for the past two crappy seasons, he screams out "Matt Kinney" to me.

Not overly simplistic at all. Stats can tell lots of versions of the story -- what can, did, & perhaps should & should've happened. Sooner or later, though, you do need to get away from the hypotheticals and deal with the simple reality that Schlitz001 brought it up.