I don't buy the whole "Tony dies" theory. After the meeting in the warehouse, the New York underbosses were cool with Tony, and understood that he was still planning to whack Phil. A "cease fire" had been arranged, everyone went back to their daily lives (the Sopranos moving back into their house, the boys hanging outside the pork store, etc.) There should have been no retaliation after Phil's murder.....Butch even told Tony "do what you have to do." Not to mention that they agreed to give reparations to Janice and the kids. You can rule out Lil' Carmine automatically, as he was a close friend of Tony's (and just gave AJ a job). Every notable character left in Tony's crew was incredibly loyal - Paulie, Patsy (another automatic rule-out considering his son was marrying Meadow), Walden, and Benny. Everyone except that rat-fink Carlo, who was in witness protection. If a hit was ordered, there would have to be surveillance on Tony, or they would have needed prior knowledge that he was going to Holsten's for dinner (which is basically impossible). I guess you could say "Tony pissed off a lot of people over the years" but it just doesn't add up for me. If the assumption is that the guy at the lunch counter was a hitman, that means somebody had to pay him. Hesh wouldn't have the balls. Who else is there? I don't trust Butch 100% but you'd think that there would be a power struggle in New York with Phil gone that he would have to worry about first. Thoughts? (Note: I'm basically just riffing off some of the comments left on the HBO message board, a lot of people seem to think Tony got shot.)