Fatter than Joey

Bill James, Chone, Marcel and Oliver all include BABIP in their projections. I am sure you can calculate BABIP from projections. -- but the question I asked, -- what projections system uses BABIP from past years to calculate their projection? Something you might expect from a 25 year old, but not someone who is going on 30. Why not? -- Their projections are in a large part based on historical data, they have a reason to think Theriot's SLG will improve. So... The bottom line in all of this, is that you think Theriot will fall from .746 to .675 in OPS?

BABIP is one of the major factors we have to consider when forming someone's expected OPS for the next season. That's my point. I don't know how else I can explain it. Please show me an example of "we have to consider", show me a projection system that looks at BABip for batters and incorporates it into their projections - I think you are largely hand-waving through data -- which is fine -- and you could make reasonable conclusions from. Most of them have him dropping about 20-30 points in BABIP Did you actually calculate this, or are you spitballing? Like you were when you said this: If that happens, if he doesn't hit for more power in his ABs than he did the previous season. His OPS would be .650. Then you arbitrarily add .05 pts to get him to ".700 tops" -- you may be right but your methodology is suspect.

But BABIP is closely tied to OPS. Sure BABIP has a lot of the same variables of OPS -- but it correlates nowhere as good as OPS to projecting runs. BA is closely tied to OPS, but it in fact has a lower correlation to runs generated than even BABIP does. Let's see what happens to his OPS when he goes from a .350 BABIP to a .300 BABIP without him adding any additional power. Why? -- Player's SLG fluctuates from year to year, this is a very unreasonable assumption to make. But I don't expect anything much higher than .700 OPS tops Most projections have Theriot at .725 or higher, so you are arguing against them as well. None of them have anything remotely close to a .650 OPS. I believe your logic to be flawed and wanting. BABIP does have a large effect on what a person's OPS is, and thus is useful for determining what a person's expect OPS should be for the next season False -- I don't know a single projection program that uses BABIP as an input - and this is indicative of your .650 projection when most of the others are around .720-730. You want to ignore what is a major building block of OPS, but its important to know how a person got at that OPS before you can use it to make predictions on how a player will do in regards to wins. Again, false -- you can look at a projected OPS, and then use that as a good gauge as it correlates to runs well. You are putting way too much emphasis on Theriot's extreme BABip. You are still welcome to one of my Homer wedding beers.

he simply said if the teams BABIP all drop and the rest of their numbers stay the same the team will score fewer runs. I think it is pretty simplistic to hold every thing static except for BABIP. If this happens it means their AVG will drop which means their OPS will drop. Sure... and really, I am not arguing for or against Theriot's continued onslaught of NL pitching next year, rather that his inflated 2008 BABIP is not probably going to correlate well with a projected lack of production for 2009 -- and if it does, not to the degree a .070 swing in BABIP may lead one to believe.

Here are some projections I found for Theriot's OPS Marcel .725 Bill James .728 Zips .705 Cairo .721 Chone .723 I think is a much more compelling argument to expect a decrease in Theriot's 2009 projections -- I just don't think it is as near as extreme as the .350 BABip is leading you to believe.

I should have made the point than that most of the Cubs players had BABIP well above their career averages. Would that be a valid enough point for you? For players with enough data -- yes -- for Theriot in particular, no. Depending on where a pitcher puts the ball, he can to an extent control how well a ball is hit. There are some -- but very few -- pitchers that have extreme BABips consistently -- The point is, BABIP is a valid predictive tool for both batters and pitchers when we don't have a whole lot of history to know where their averages might fall. No it is not. BABIP is NOT a good predictive tool for Runs -- OPS is MUCH better. OPS correlates to runs I think as well as anything except perhaps RC/27. Simply put, BABip does not correlate well to runs. as the overwhelming majority of MLB hitters hover around that mark with only a few exceptions I do not believe this to be at all true -- for pitchers I agree, for batters I do not. And to say that this doesn't apply at all to wins is a bit bogus too,...., something that it doesn't appear he is capable of doing. I didn't read your paragraph very close -- I would just take Theriot's CHONE projection (or another projection), and look at OPS, and compare it his 2008 OPS of .746. If his 2009 OPS projects higher -- I would say that regardless of BABip, Theriot will probably do as well or better than he did in 2008, if his 2009 OPS projects to a .670 then I would say you have a good argument that the Cubs will lose runs in Theriot's spot. It is a fact that OPS correlates to runs much better than BABip. But tell you what FTJ and Briggs. If Theriot equals or improves on his BABIP this next season, I'll buy you a beer. If he doesn't you buy me a beer. Deal? I will gladly give you one of my Homer wedding beers in either case... I don't think Theriot will increase his BABip next year -- however I don't think that is entirely relevant either. If you tell me his OPS is going to drop, then I will listen -- not so much for BABIP. If you want to shut me up -- Find a 2009 CHONE or other OPS projection for Theriot, and compare it to 2008. If they project his OPS much less than .746 -- I will concede the point.

You have yet to show me someone who can consistently hit with a BABIP in the .350s. The truth is you won't find said player, because said player doesn't exist False. Ichiro has a career .356 BABip. I am sure there are plenty of others. Your claims seem unsubstantiated. that even the best hitters in baseball, generally hover around the .300 mark in BABIP. This is irrelevant, and where I think you continue to trip up... Simply put. For pitchers -- Pitchers regress towards a league average BABip For Batters -- Batters regress towards their own unique number. So in the case of Theriot -- given the fact he has only played 2 full seasons, I think it is a bit presumptuous that we should know what sort of BABip to expect from Theriot given the smallish data size. I think a lot of people are using BABip incorrectly as a projection tool as well... BABip does not correlate to Runs very well -- certainly much less than say OPS -- which correlates to runs really well. So it the case of Straw's argument, I do not think it is at all reasonable to conclude that a rise or drop in BABip is going to necessarily correlate in a rise or drop in runs. So if you wanted to say Theriot's BABip is likely to drop in 2009 -- I'd say "so what". Theriot had a .746 OPS last year -- good enough for 8th among NL SS's. I think the better question is to ask whether Theriot can maintain a .746 OPS... I don't see any reason why he couldn't produce a .746 OPS again this year -- or something around that number. If you think Theriot is going to produce a .669 OPS -- then I think you can make a strong case that the Cubs are going to get less runs out of Theriot's ABs in 2009... otherwise I think you are grasping.

Homer is not on my enemies list. Not even close. You just joined the likes of Kevin Costner, Ned Yost, Bea Arthur Jr. and that bald guy from American Idol.

So you're just doing it for the beer? I am certainly not doing it because I believe in the sanctity of marriage... FTJ sitting in a corner plastered, drool running down his chin...all three of them... ... and everyone on FTJ's enemies list just slid down a notch. I voted again.

and I will again set myself up for disappointment by hoping for that breakout year. I think it won't be as bad as that movie with the clones.

Why should Suppan's contract automatically assure him of a rotation spot? It's just the way things work -- e.g. Eric Gagne The answer is it shouldn't at least not if 5 other guys are clearly better. Agreed -- I am not sure that there are 5 guys that are clearly better. But if he produces a season with an ERA well over 5, I think they have to look for someone better and let Suppan work out of the pen in 2010 likely as a very expensive long reliever/spot starter. I think he could get cut in 2010 or shuttled off to the pen ---- not in 2009 though.

I think the chance of that is near zero. The Brewers have almost no starting pitching depth this year and I don't see that changing substantially by next year. Add in that he was signed to a high profile contract to be a "BIG GAME" pitcher and I think he'll be in the rotation through 2010. I agree -- He will be benched with a fake injury before he pitches out of the BP, because of his ugly contract. I also agree that the Brewers don't have any SP options to just flat out cut him.

I hereby offer "my beer" to burniebrewer. You can't do that -- you lost your claim to it. Unless you voted again -- then you could give him your beer. Follow the rules people!

If he could return to his StL form, it would be helpful for the Brewers. In a large part I think his STL success was due to their better defense.

FTJ, mind if I get a few of those extra beers? I have done a lot of work acquiring those beers... I am pretty sure I shouldn't just be handing them over to people willy nilly. Bill Gates didn't get where he is giving everyone his extra beers. How'd you like to be one of those couples with 0% of the vote?? They suck.

Do they ever do a player option as an incentive? For example, if Ben gets 200IP in 2009, then the player option kicks in for 2010. I think I understand what you are talking about -- if so, this is exactly the sort of option Kendall got -- His option got picked up once he made something like his 130th start. So I am sure that there is a way, that if Ben made X starts or Y IP he could have an option get picked up.

I voted again -- I think the IP resets after 24 hrs, or something like that. I'm taking another beer.

(Instead of a beer, I'll settle for a diet pepsi.) I'll take this guy's beer as well.

If he was mismanaged by the Brewers, why would he so strongly consider going to Texas to get hooked up with the Pitching Coach who mismanaged him? Yost mismanaged things -- Maddux was just a creepy guy who'd touch your shoulder on the mound. My guess is that (Sheets) FTJ has an axe to grind with Yost, and the people who should have fired him much sooner. No doubt that I do -- I am sure I am not the only one. I still hold out hope we can keep him. Me too.

My guess (again just a guess) is that if he has any axe to grind it's with Milwaukee media and fans for not appreciating him. It could be both.

I don't drink beer so I'll be the DD I'll take his beer as well, maybe he could get a drink with an umbrella?

I think saying the Brewers mismanaged Sheets is quite a bit of a stretch. Oh, I think there is no doubt that they mismanaged him, he got Yosted old-school-hardcore -- especially from the perspective of Sheets -- Either Sheets has an axe to grind or is really dumb -- I think it is more of the former than the latter. That said, I realize that this is a pretty subjective topic...

He should have known it was going to happen.... Oops.

Because the staff that mismanaged him is now gone? Yost is gone, Melvin and MA are still here... And if he was concerned about how he was handled by the coaches in Milwaukee, why would he be so interested in going to re-unite in Texas with the pitching coach that had a fairly significant hand in that mis-management? My guess is that Sheets has an axe to grind with Yost, and the people who should have fired him much sooner. But it's looking increasingly likely that the deal will be for a lot less than he would have hoped for, and the more likely that seems, the more likely it is that he ends up returning to Milwaukee for another year, IMO. Maybe -- It certainly is more probable in the sense that more teams are off the table -- I think it is not overall likely though. I think the Brewers think Ben mismanages himself--my guess is they both wrote each other off and both had some good reasons to do so. Agreed.

I'm also a decent sized guy, so I do have a little "insulation". I am also like the mighty polar bear, and able to withstand arctic cold, with only a hoodie. The summer slays me though.