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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I don't buy any of it and I think a guy like Phillips should at least try to find some evidence for his theories before sharing them with the world. The guy works for ESPN! He has access to people who could look at this stuff. I don't think is theories even pass the sniff test, though, so I doubt they would hold up to any kind of analytical scrutiny.
  2. rluzinski
    A good way to see what players should be expected to improve or cool off is to go to Fangraphs and compare their current production with their updated ZiPS projection. For instance: Hall, 2009: Current: .292/.364/.483/.847 Updated ZiPS Projection: .253/.321/.446/.767 Hall might beat that projection if he's kept in a soft platoon but the odds say he's going to cool down significantly. Let's hope there's some intangible factor that justifies his production so far.
  3. rluzinski
    I don't see that being true. The problem is that there's no school to learn how to be a GM, there's no test to tell how a GM will do. The Mets looked at people who had been through the baseball trenches and hired the guy that impressed them the most in the interview. Since the Mets owners themselves aren't informed enough to judge all of Phillips actions, they gave him enough time to prove he didn't deserve it. I obviously didn't explain it nearly as clearly as you, but that's what I was trying to get at. They are "willing to employ incompetence for years" because for some, the only requirements for being a GM is to be a former ballplayer who wants to be a GM and has a good personality. And if you do become a GM, you are judged almost entirely by how well your team performs. If you inherit a good team and/or prospects and/or you are lucky enough to be the GM for a team with a large payroll, you'll probably stay the GM for many years. Things are changing in many cities but there's still a very strong good ol' boys network for many franchises.
  4. rluzinski
    Brewers with the Bases Loaded: .333/.333/.545/.879 Scoring Position w/2 Out: .271/.390/.489/.879 All these kind of small sample splits tell you is where the hits randomly fell for a particular criteria over a particular time. They'll fluctuate widely, month by month. It's the same for monthly splits for a batter. White noise.
  5. rluzinski
    These kind of threads always devolve into, "I don't care about the logic, it's my right to boo." Really, there's nothing to debate.
  6. rluzinski
    I watch ESPN games almost never but I just happened to be watching this game. Was Phillips the one going on for about 10 minutes about players needing to have an edge and how it makes players perform better? There is no stat to back up his claim about run support. Steve Phillips is just absolutely clueless. He is exhibit "A" with regard to MLB being a good ol' boys club that's willing to employ incompetence for years. I think Bowden is exhibit "B".
  7. rluzinski
    Fair enough -- I really didnt see a reason to move from OPS. And 10 years ago, someone was arguing that they really didn't see the need to move from BA and RBI. Now, the difference between BA/RBI and OPS is much larger than OPS and wOBA but if I want to measure something, anything, I want to use the best available tools to do so. You may not think that it's worth the bother but I'll bet you can appreciate why a guy like me does.
  8. rluzinski
    I never saw your post where you agreed to wOBA. I lost interest in the whole thing after it was implied (not by you) that I was trying to unfairly increase my odds of winning by not just using OPS. Kind of takes the whole fun out of a friendly wager.
  9. rluzinski
    Since the start of this thread: Kendall: 61 PA, .304 / .364 / .375 / .739 Yo, Parra & Looper: 23 PA, .087 / .087 / .218 / .305 Now, I don't expect Kendall to keep up that small sample production, just like I didn't expect him to keep up his pre-April 23rd production, just like I didn't expect him to keep up his great start in 2008. His preseaon Marcel projection was .252 / .337 / .328 / .665. That's still a pretty reasonable guess. And the 3 pitchers will surely improve upon their above sample but come on now. Also,if I didn't mention it somewhere in this thread, wOBA basically is linear weights. They both debt the hitter for making outs, so just having more ABs doesn't give you the better number.
  10. rluzinski
    I hope I have't suggested that Braun is single handedly destroying American professional sports for 2009 or any other year.
  11. rluzinski
    "I'm not even going to get into it at all. Not yet," Braun said. "Once my house gets furnished, I'll go kick it on the beach in Malibu for a while and be cool. Until then, I've got nothing to say." Inspiring humility. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I think Hawing said it well about everyone having a different opinion on when confidence crosses over into cocky. I don't think Braun is a bad guy. He's just not the kind of professional athlete I find particularly appealing.
  12. rluzinski
    I like to think I'm pretty objective with things like this and I don't get the problem at all. If you aren't directing your celebration at your opponent, who cares?
  13. rluzinski
    Big money in sports might not have completely worn down the admirable aspects of human nature. For any profession, I don't think it's a sin to try and maximize your earnings and I don't find it particularly admirable when a person wants to forgo a possibly higher salary to stay with his current employer. I don't see professional sports as different than any other job. Other people see professional sports as something special. We'll have to agree to disagree.
  14. rluzinski
    I agree, and I don't believe the "small sample' argument is valid. Small sample is the definition of a bench player. You need to produce in the limited opportunities you have, or you're not adding any value. Small samples are about not being able to judge true talent very well with the limited data. You want the most talented players on your bench, regardless of their most recent small sample production. If the Brewers have someone better than Nelson, they should call him up. If they don't, let him play.
  15. rluzinski
    Man, it sure looked like Nelson tied the game with that swing. And why we have to suffer through Kendall ABs with the game on the line? Does no manager have the balls to pinch hit for him? No excuse.
  16. rluzinski
    Let's look at wOBA, which properly weighs all the batting events (unlike OPS): Weeks' wOBA: 2007: .365 2009: .352 09 Marcel Projection: .343 So he's beating his projection so far but he hasn't even been as valuable as he was in 2007n offensively. And he's made some significant changes to his approach so far, according to data at fangraphs. He's swinging at a lot more pitches and most of them have been outside the strikezone. He's made a lot contact on them, though, so his overall contact rate has held steady. Way too early to make conclusions about anything, though. I'm glad he's being a bit more aggressive but I fear that he just doen't have the pitch recognition skills to ever be a dominating hitter. He seems more like a guessor, like Hall.
  17. rluzinski
    There are so many uncertainties you could consider. I think the biggest one is just the uncertainy of binomial uncertainties. Flip a coin 162 times and how many heads will you get? Standard Deviation = SQRT [n x p x (1 - p)] n = number of games p = probability of winning For a .500 team playing 162 games, 1 SD = 6.4 games.
  18. rluzinski
    How can you "not really care about that kind of stuff" regarding loyalty in a player? Because I think the whole concept of loyalty in professional sports is just a silly, outdated notion. The Brewers offered Braun a contact that that thought was in their best interest and Braun accepted because he thought it was in his own best interest to do so. No one was being loyal to anyone and there's nothing wrong with that.
  19. rluzinski
    I can't believe I watched the whole thing....
  20. rluzinski
    If the Brewers let the Reds tie it up in the 8th, but because the Reds already used Cordero the Brewers score in the top of the 9th to win it. Of course, the hospitals in Milwaukee and Cinncy would fill with heart attack victims. Which begs the question, is there really a difference between Coco pitching in the 8th or the 9th, anyway? It doesn't actually matter.
  21. rluzinski
    Now Bill is saying that if the reds hit a bomb they'll be right back in it. A five run deficit is getting back into a game now? Sheesh.
  22. rluzinski
    71 pitches for Reds pitchers through 2 innings.
  23. rluzinski
    Results 1 - 10 of about 1,260 for "ryan braun" cocky. (0.25 seconds) Let's see how that compares to others: Results 1 - 10 of about 550 for "rickie weeks" cocky. (0.30 seconds) Results 1 - 10 of about 283 for "craig counsell" cocky. (0.28 seconds) Results 1 - 10 of about 1,230 for "prince fielder" cocky. (0.28 seconds) Not exactly scientific but funny to look at.
  24. rluzinski
    Wow. We get to enjoy this one from start to finish? That would be nice. Nice opposite field HR by Hardy. The last couple of weeks sure have been fun.
  25. rluzinski
    These Brewers just know how to delivery with the bases loaded! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
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