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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Despite what Bill says, pitch FX showed that RBI hit right on the low-outside corner. Delgado just went with it.
  2. rluzinski
    I'm unhappy about the record but I think it tells us little about the overall talent of the team. I am becoming apathetic because a good but not great team like the Crew probably doesn't have enough talent to big themselves out of a big hole. Their current hole isn't big but it's getting close. And I thought moof really wanted reasons to be excited but his followup post makes me not so sure.
  3. rluzinski
    Going forward, I'd probably put the over/under for Suppan's ERA right at 5.25. Of course, his 2009 would still end up substantially higher when you include his bad start. If Suppan's velocity is about where it's been over the last few years; it'hard for me to see why I should expect a 6+ ERA from him.
  4. rluzinski
    Today's outcome was pretty much a worst case scenario. It was exactly the reason the team should have avoided matching up Gallardo against Santana. Now, Gallardo's shutout effort has been wasted. Against almost any other pitcher, we probably win that game... I've seen no evidence that suggests different pitching match ups result in a different number of expected wins. Quite the opposite, in fact. The brewers would have either had worse odds of winning today or tomorrow. It doesn't matter.
  5. rluzinski
    The problem isn't 3-7. Its that you can't go another 3-7 Exactly. The Brewers had to average about an extra win a month over their projections to make the playoffs this year. Right now, they are 2 wins behind it. If they continue to lose, they'll have almost no chance of making the playoffs before May.
  6. rluzinski
    The Brewers could play themselves out of any realistic shot at the playoffs before May even rolls around. That could make for a veryyy long summer. 3-8 with Soup goin' tomorrow. Yeesh. Vs. Nelson Figueroa, so it's not like the pitching match up heavily favors any team. This is a tough one to get upset about...it was a well pitched game on both sides, and a 1-0 loss isn't like a blowout or anything. It's just annoying to lose to a team that doesn't even get an earned run. I'd rather it just be on a two run shot, or something.
  7. rluzinski
    Magnificent relay. That's why you cut off those deep throws from the outfield. WOW.
  8. rluzinski
    Yo's ERA under 5 again! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Even without his curve, he's mowing them down. The Mets are just watching all those perfectly placed fastball go by.
  9. rluzinski
    55 pitches through 3 innings, for Gallardo. 3 innings from the bullpen looks likely.
  10. rluzinski
    He had a 30% breakout rate in PECOTA and his 90th percentile line is .292/.407/.504 with a more reasonable 75th line of .282/.393/.478. Has BP ever explained how they calculate those breakout rates? Have they ever proven that their method works?
  11. rluzinski
    A terrible team might be the underdogs in 10 straight games, that doesn't mean they should go 0-10. No team has a 100% or 0% chance of winning games, so a better way to approach these kind of exercises is to come up with estimates on odds for each game. Vegas gives the Brewers about a 35% chance of winning today. With it being Syppan vs. Figueroa(?) tomorrow, I'd think it would be something like 40% for Sunday's game. That means that the Brewers have something like a 40% chance of losing the next 2 games. Pretty darn high but it's more likely that the Brewers at least split the next two games. 65 wins? I'll take that bet. He wouldn't bet a nickel on that. He's just using brewerfan.net as a shrink.
  12. rluzinski
    If its a 50-50 pitch its too close to swing at 3-2 especially with the bases loaded Agreed. With the bases loaded, it's a 50% of a run and the inning continuing, vs. about a 75% chance of the inning ending. But don't tell Bill Schroeder that!
  13. rluzinski
    Weeks' 2008 Marcel Projection: .249/.357/.414/.772 Now, Weeks hasn't exactly been the model of health, so I could see a healthy Weeks beat that pretty easily but 35 AB really isn't going to make me change my expectations very much. A .250/.360/.440/.800 line seems about right for a healthy Weeks. And almost by definition, you can't project a breakout year.
  14. rluzinski
    Well, at least we don't have to say, "The pitching staff finally has a good game and the offense goes cold". Just a bad game, all around.
  15. rluzinski
    Wow. Hall fully extends on a dive and gets off of a rocket of a throw a split second later. Something to cheer for!
  16. rluzinski
    It's amazing how deflating this season has already been and we aren't even 5% in.
  17. rluzinski
    How about Macha calls on Weeks here? There is NO reason to have Nelson face a lefty with the game on the line. EDIT: Thank you.
  18. rluzinski
    I think people are missing the correlation between expected future performance and salary when trying to find evidence that teams stick with bad players when they are paid more. They are paid more because of past success. That's why you determine who should start based on all the information, not just the results of a few starts. Now, Suppan's projections were pretty bad going into the season. An ERA of 6 for half a season will probably be enough to bump his projected ERA over the projections for the alternatives. As it stands, I'm not sure if the Brewers even have a better alternative, though. McClung perhaps, but that's about it, IMO.
  19. rluzinski
    Though Rock constantly calling Bush the #5 starter does want me to bang my head against the wall. Having such stupid people in such prominent roles in baseball is what is ultimately going to make give up on the sport.
  20. rluzinski
    Rivera might be projected to have an OBP around maybe 30 points less than Kendall but his SLG might be 100 points higher. Kendall's short stint with the Cubs in 2007 may have fooled some fantasy baseball players into thinking Kendall was OK offensively, but the truth is that he hasn't been a good hitter for several years. That said, I don't think either option an catcher is anything to get excited about.
  21. rluzinski
    The problem is that the Brewers are an OK team that's going to need help to make the playoffs and they are probably already 2 games behind where they "should" be. A few more games like this and it might make the rest of the year a fight for 81 wins.
  22. rluzinski
    Nothing makes me happier than having to rely on Kendall and Counsell to try and get a hit. WOW.
  23. rluzinski
    We don't all know Bush can fall aprt quicly, at least not anymore than any other starter. His pitch count was low, so there was no reason to pull him right away. It's not even practical. After 6 games, there's no way I'm adjusting expectactions for any player yet. We can make some observations about players healths but that's about it. I haven't been impressed with Macha so far but I really wasn't expecting to.
  24. rluzinski
    "Interested what Macha does to the lineup after his comments about a shakeup tonight with Dempster's past success versus the Brewers." I have a hard time believing that Macha has an engineering degree. Other than kendall (who's had great success against Dempster, no other Brewer has more than 18 AB against him). Maybe the University of Pittsburg didn't offer statistics 101 for their engineers? Maybe he fell asleep when they explained sample variance? Different manager, same ignorance. Here's the lineup I'm expecting from Macha: Kendall C Duffy RF Mike Rivera LF Prince Fielder 1B Rickie Weeks 2B Craig Counsell SS Manny Parra 3B Mike Cameron CF Suppan P
  25. rluzinski
    I was at the game but didn't get a great look at where the ball was, relative to Hart. I just EXPECTED Hart to score from first with two outs, on a play that had Fielder jogging into second with a double. Maybe if it was Fielder at first and Hart hitting the double.... it just didn't make any sense. And I'd guess something like 40% Cubs fans. We had about the nicest Cubs fans i've ever met in front of us (one guy admited that he really liked the Brewers and wished they weren't in the Cub's division) but it sucks leaving the park after a Brewer loss and hearing nothing but cheering. Three and a half hours and about $100 (tickets and concessions) for utter disgust. Makes my wish I'd just stayed home.
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