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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Most of the veteran bench players were regulars at one point in their careers, which can make it easier to adjust to just being a bench player. A lot of times composure and preparation are keys when it comes to being effective as a pinch-hitter. Rookies and younger players will likely struggle with this greatly. Most rookies were regulars at one point in their professional careers as well. As baseball fans, we are just conditioned to believe that the sport they play in the majors is somehow intrinsically different than the one they play in the minors. Really, everything you wrote above is what we hear from announcers and managers ad nauseam but I've never seem any clear evidence that it's true. That's really what this whole thread is about. There are good and bad, young and old bench players. At least with young bench players, they have the chance to improve and surprise. If you are an old bench player, it just means that you've already proven that you aren't good enough to start. While it wouldn't surprise me if veterans perform slightly better than rookies of comparable talent in a bench role, I've never seen any actual evidence that it's true. Just dogma.
  2. rluzinski
    I don't think it's an unreasonable theory that rookies or guys with limited experience in the big leagues might make worse pinch hitters than their mediocre veteran counterparts. It is not unreasonable. We already know that players perform worse on average in a part time role than while playing every day. It's certainly possible that veterans are better at playing sporadically than rookies. I've never seen it proven either way, however, and I'd be willing to guess it's a pretty small effect if it does exist. But really, I don't know. What I don't like is when people simply assume it's both true AND a significant effect, just because baseball lore says it is. I want evidence.
  3. rluzinski
    Short of player health, it's way to early to say that we know something more about the Marlins now than we did before the season started. The Marlins are about 5 games over where their preseason projections thought they would be, so just add that to their projection. They still don't look like a playoff team on paper.
  4. rluzinski
    4 games and some speculation on possible wind patterns? I would definitely wait and see.
  5. rluzinski
    The problem isn't that they are inexperienced. The problem is that they aren't very good hitters. And bringing in "proven veterans" who've proven they can't hit isn't going to fix that. I certainly don't want guys like Fielder and Braun losing playing time over players who have proven that they suck. Jenkins and Lamb? Good gief.
  6. rluzinski
    I did see a post where Coffey's fastball is almost 2 MPH this year than last years. I wonder if he had health issues last year. That said, he's never been anything special in the majors, so I think some people might be setting themselves up for disappointment. I hope I'm wrong.
  7. rluzinski
    Technically, if you thought they'd win 87 games before the season, you should expect about 85 or 86 wins now. Not because you should adjust your expectations going forward, but because they haven't met you expections thus far.
  8. rluzinski
    I don't need to hear stories from retired pitchers to know how pitchers vary their pitch selections. The data is all there to be analyzed. And sure, aggregate data isn't going to account for all the differences in specific lineups but let's use some common sense. Braun and Fielder are both good hitters but plenty of teams have pretty comparible 3 and 4 hitters. It's not like pitchers are grooving fastball after fastball 2 anyone who bats in front of them. The effect is so much more sutle than that. And I think pitch selection is also dependant upon the batter himself. So yeh, maybe Hardy would see an extra fastball every 4 or 5 PA in the 2 spot, compared to the league average of 6. Since I'd guess that Hardy would be a better hitter than an average 2, I bet it's not even every 4. But the data is there for anyone to look at. I would genuinely like to be proven wrong.
  9. rluzinski
    As soon as DiFelice threw 4 balls - Macha could tell he didn't have his best stuff and pulled him. I don't think you can tell if a pitcher has it after 1 PA and I don't think that's a viable way to manage a pen, anyway.
  10. rluzinski
    Seriously, how many more fastballs do people think a #2 hitter gets over a #5 hitter? Looks like about 4% more on average: http://actasports.com/sow.php?id=139 Assuming 4 pitches per plate appearance, we are talking about 1 extra fastball every 6 PA. As is often the case, what baseball accepts as common wisdom doesn't hold up to scrutiny.
  11. rluzinski
    Is there such thing as a no risk investment that pays out at 5% or higher? I guess if there's no risk, you take the 30 year fixed mortgage at 5% or lower (with 20% down) and the tax deduction?
  12. rluzinski
    Why not hit suppan? It's not like our bullpen has proven it can pitch three scoreless very often. Just Coffey. Struggling #5 pitcher at almost 100 pitches, leading off the next inning. That's not a compelling reason? And how is Suppan after 100 pitches better than a fresh, mediocre reliever, anyway?
  13. rluzinski
    I realize that Coffey has been great during his short time with the Brewers but I'm not convinced he's anything special, yet. He hasn't exactly had a lot of major league success so far. I love the outcome but leaving Coffey in there didn't really seem like some brilliant strategic move. I think I would have pinch hit for him, even if it was just to attempt a sacrifice. And that move with Suppan was completely boneheaded, IMO. Now, I have suggested in other posts that all managers are bad and it doesn't matter who's manning the team. That really isn't fair. I just haven't been particularly impressed with Macha's moves so far, overall.
  14. rluzinski
    Thanks to you Ennder as well. If my math is correct, the Mets were about 9.4% more likely to score in those situations than the Crew. That could be worth a game or two over the course of the season don't ya think? The Mets just had a better offense overall, so we would expect them to. I was just arguing that even "good teams" fail all the time in run scoring opportunities. The Brewers failing in one of those situations doesn't tell us if they are good or bad. Nothing more.
  15. rluzinski
    I have to agree with Doug. The horseshoe is planted firmly in the Brewers' rear end right now. That line drive double play could have been baddd.
  16. rluzinski
    I bet Mets fans are really mad that they didn't get any more runs after having the bases loaded and only 1 out.
  17. rluzinski
    YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSS! Nice leather, Coffey!
  18. rluzinski
    Brewers getting dinked and dunked to death right now. Man o man.
  19. rluzinski
    And Macha pulls him after 1 batter. How absolutely asinine.
  20. rluzinski
    Let's let Suppan lead off the 7th, just so you he can be pulled in the bottom of the inning. That's just a pet peeve of mine. EDIT: I see Ennder beat me to it. This is the 20th example this year of why it doesn't matter who's the manager. Suppan is obviously hot right now, and you can't pull a hot pitcher. Never mind that there are publicly available studies that show it's a bunch of bull. It's in "The Book".
  21. rluzinski
    Right now, they are 2 wins behind it. If they continue to lose, they'll have almost no chance of making the playoffs before May. No team has any chance of making the playoffs before May. That is usually decided at the end of the season after looking at the records of all the teams. I didn't think I needed to guard against that interpretation but let me try to be more clear: If they continue to lose, it may not even be May before they have no real chance of making the playoffs.
  22. rluzinski
    1 more out and Kendall will be batting under .100.
  23. rluzinski
    I understand it's a frustrating situation but Brewer fans have to realize that all over the league, there are runners at 3rd with less than 2 out that aren't scoring all the time. With 1 out, they don't score about 35% of the time; with 2 out, they don't score about 75% of the time. It is not just a Brewer problem.
  24. rluzinski
    Good teams get this run in from third as well... About 70% of the time, sure.
  25. rluzinski
    A lead! Let's break Figueroa's back, please
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