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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Do the Brewersreally still believe that Mota is still among the best relievers on the staff? Even when he had a nice ERA, his component stats still sucked. I'd like to think that management knew that. Right?
  2. rluzinski
    Sheets' pitch count was high because he was willing to sacrifice accuracy for velocity this start. I wish someone would have talked sense into him.
  3. rluzinski
    Ben needs to knock it off and calm down. He's going to go 4 innings and hurt himself going max effort every pitch.
  4. rluzinski
    Wow, 97 MPH for Sheets in the 1st! Think he's pumped? He needs to settle down.
  5. rluzinski
    I bet really bad starting pitchers still beat the Brewers about 40% of the time, which is about what you would expect.
  6. rluzinski
    10 runs, 17 pitches
  7. rluzinski
    Doesn't Forbes release each team's profitability each year? That's just Forbes' educated guess. MLB teams don't open their books to the public, generally speaking. I think the Bug had to when he had to sell the team, though. My understanding is that it was very unusual to do so. "No wonder Paul Beeston, a former executive of the Toronto Blue Jays and former president of MLB, once boasted, "I can turn a $4 million profit into a $2 million loss and get every national accounting firm to agree with me." That's our point exactly, and that's why we bothered to gather the data and do our own analysis. http://www.forbes.com/2002/04/01/0401baseball.html And I'm not trying to suggest that Mark A. is some disgraceful lier. There's a certain amount for subjectiveness to whether a team has been profitable or not.
  8. rluzinski
    Still, the weak links appear to be an inability to tack on runs after generating big early leads against opponents' bullpens As far as I can tell, the timing of the Brewers' runs seems tied to the strength of the pitcher they are facing and a flip of the coin. Mostly just random, as far as I can tell. I know. Somewhere, Tom H.'s ears are burning. If you want to objectively identify the games that the Brewers "should" have won, why not just win probability from fangraphs.com? Here's that May 14th game, for instance: http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2008-05-14&team=Brewers&dh=0&season=2008 The Brewers had a win expectancy of 93% at one point in that game. Choose some arbitrary cutoff (90%?) and count the games up. I think you are just identifying the most disappointing games, though. I don't really see the utility in it, beyond possibly identifying under performing relievers (and you don't even have to look at context to identify those). Me? I see a team that has a 19-15 in run games and one that's 10 games over .500 despite have outscored their opponents by only 16 runs for the season. I think they've been pretty efficient in winning games. I can't complain.
  9. rluzinski
    I think it's a bunch of bologna that that the Brewers will lose money this year. It's an easy thing for Mark A. to claim when he doesn't have to prove it.
  10. rluzinski
    I think it's cause for some concern. Why does it matter if a batter is streaky anyway? What batters aren't streaky, for that matter. I guess the crappier ones, as they consistently can't hit? I'll be happy if Branyan could hit for a .825 OPS with a decent OBP going forward. That's all I ever hoped for anyway, so all his crazy production was a bonus.
  11. rluzinski
    the Rockies are a team that you have to beat up on at home. Like, every night? Losing by a run at home to any team is no terrible crime.
  12. rluzinski
    Considering that the Brewers still have a reasonable shot of not making the playoffs (30%?, 35%?), and considering their 74 years of futility, no one if going to blame you for having doubts.
  13. rluzinski
    I did not see you account for CC averaging about 1 inning per start more than Bush and saving the bullpens arms. I can live with saying he is worth 2.5 wins, but I still believe it is around 3. I used 7 IP/start for Sabathia (which is probably a little high) and 6 IP for Bush (which is about right). I came up with 1.93 wins directly and added half a win to try and account for the bullpen considerations (admittantly, I'm not sure how to calculate it, so I used a pretty large number, IMO. If you think it's closer to 3 wins, I wouldn't necessarily agree with you but I wouldn't say you are wrong, either. Just don't tell me it's 4+ wins. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  14. rluzinski
    BP is not going to adjust for the acquisition of Sabathia. They also didn't adjust their pre-season projections for Gallardo's loss. I also feel that they don't take into consideration, perfomrances from prior years enough (they don't regress enough towards their pre-season projection. The right way to do it is to estimate playing time for every player going forward and to update every player's projections to include their performance for this year. Run a monte carlo simulation for the rest of the year and there you have it. MGL at insidethebook.com did just that about 6 weeks ago (when the Brewers were under .500) but he hasn't updated it since.
  15. rluzinski
    BP is not going to adjust for the acquisition of Sabathia. They also didn't adjust their pre-season projections for Gallardo's loss. I also feel that they don't take into consideration, perfomrances from prior years enough (they don't regress enough towards their pre-season projection. The right way to do it is to estimate playing time for every player going forward and to update every player's projections to include their performance for this year. Run a monte carlo simulation for the rest of the year and there you have it. MGL at insidethebook.com did just that about 6 weeks ago (when the Brewers were under .500) but he hasn't updated it since.
  16. rluzinski
    For people asking how I came up with my 2 win estimate: http://rluzinski.blogspot.com/2008/07/how-much-will-sabathia-be-worth-in-wins.html I'm willing to extend that up to a possible two point FIVE wins. That does not take into account the loss today, however, which was obviously a result of the psychological impact of this trade. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  17. rluzinski
    And there it is BOLD prediction.
  18. rluzinski
    Good move here by Ned. Go with your closer in the top 9th in a tie not Mota. Is Gameday wrong and the Brewers are really not down by one?
  19. rluzinski
    And for the record, I don't begin to blame this game on Yost. It's just a small thing I thing he consistently does incorrectly.
  20. rluzinski
    There wasn't another relief pitcher up There wasn't another reliever up because Yost decided to go with his long reliever right away. And I would have been fine with Stetter or Gagne. Villy doesn't exactly set the bar high himself. I've defended Yost plenty of times around here but when he does to the bullpen early, he always ignores whether the pitcher will have to bat for himself. It's just not smart.
  21. rluzinski
    What was Ned supposed to do, potentially let Seth blow the game open to where we are down 4-5 runs? He could put in another reliever for the one out?
  22. rluzinski
    I wish our manager was smart enough not to bring in his long reliever when he has to bat the next inning.
  23. rluzinski
    Calm down, Im just pointing out that the whole Run differential thing is overrated IMO. I didn't mean to suggest that it's the final word but the difference between the Cubs' and Brewers' run differential is SO dramatic that it can't be dismissed very easily. That said, I don't think it accurately measures the true difference in talent between the two teams (I don't think the Cubs are THAT much better than the Brewers).
  24. rluzinski
    If Sabathia does pitch on Tuesday, it almost has to be Bush out of the rotation, at least until the All Star break. Parra would just get a couple extra days of rest and pitch Thursday?
  25. rluzinski
    Im not a big fan of run differential because last time I checked MLB is still deciding who makes the playoffs by W and L. If I want to know what team made the playoffs, I look at their win/loss record. If I want to know the collective true talent of a team (or my best guess at it), I look at many things. Run differential is one of those things. At any given point of the season, a team's win/loss record does not always perfectly match their actual true talent. That's true after 1 game, 5 games, 50 games and sometimes... even 162 games. And we are 3.5 GB, anything is possible Isn't that true of every team in the league right now?
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