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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    If you would have told me that Hardy would have the highest OBP in July among the regulars.... I give up trying to figure Hardy out.
  2. rluzinski
    I say Sheets only because the Brewers at least have a reasonable chance of signing him if they want to, especially is Sheets is willing to take a small home town discount. Sabathia will go to the highest biddder and that bid will be insane.
  3. rluzinski
    Holy crap that was fast! CC is moving to the NL, and if you curve his ERA for that move, he was a sub 3 ERA guy last year. He's been sub 3 since the beginning of May this year. The 1 concern is he's has a few injuries, which have hurt his innings pitched and inflated his ERA in the past. You can't just start removing a part of the sample that doesn't help your argument. Regardless, we aren't THAT far off if you think he's really a 3.0 pitcher and I think he's a 3.25 ERA pitcher. He's among the best in the league, either way.
  4. rluzinski
    Who is though in today's game? No one. Before the season started, Peavy had the best projection at 3.23 ERA, even with the aid of an extreme pitcher's park. That's not to say that a starting pitcher can't ever put up an ERA under 3 for a season (Cliff lee has a good shot at it). It would just be likely that he had to have been a little lucky to go along with being really good. People also have to remember that Sabathia is also going from the AL to the NL. I was calling him a 3.50 RA pitcher, which is about a 3.25 ERA. I think that would be a pretty reasonable expectation for him in the NL.
  5. rluzinski
    Many here are penciling in CC as an 7-8 inning guy at 2.15 ERA they have seen the last two months. While I agree with you that he is more likely to stat out at your rates, it is possible that he posts those other numbers too (he is in a contract drive after all). What would your numbers say if he puts up a 3 ERA over 7 in comparison to Bush? About 65% chance of winning each start with a 3.0 RA (runs/9). .15% x 15 starts = 2.25 wins. Seriously though, there is no reason to believe that Sabathia is a true 3.0 ERA starter pitcher. I was being generous by calling him a 3.5 RA pitcher. That's not to say Sabathia couldn't put up a 2.5 ERA for half a season though. He could also put up a 4.0+ ERA and actually hurt the team. I'm just giving the average, expected production (at least my best guess). Also, for reference, he's averaged a little over 6-1/3 IP per start over his career, although he's pushed that close to 7 IP/start over the the last 2+ years.
  6. rluzinski
    I guess you don't get excommunicated now unless you continue to insist to root for the Cubs (at least until the AS break, when they're not really playing teams considered in the WC race). Considering the Brewers' current situation, the Cardinals are the only team I'd root for the Cubs to beat. Maybe the Mets as well but the Cubs don't play them until the second to last series of the season, so it really doesn't matter anyway.
  7. rluzinski
    So 15 Sabathia starts vs. 15 Bush starts is only likelihood of winning two more games? Doesn't seem right. I know it doesn't sound right. These kind of midseason trades always feel like they should have a larger impact but on average, they really shouldn't be expected to. Here's the rough numbers I used. A team with an average offense and average bullpen goes from winning around 50% of their games with Bush starting (assuming 6 IP and a 4.75 RA) to about 60% with Sabathia (6-1/3, 3.5 RA). That 10% is an absolutely huge difference in baseball. A team who can win at a 60% rate for a season wins 97 games, after all. 10% x 15 starts = 1.5 wins. I threw in an extra half win since Bush still has value to the team in the bullpen and in case I was shortchanging Sabathia's value. No, I did not include the prospect of Sabathia inspiring Suppan to pitch better or Weeks to raise his OBP.
  8. rluzinski
    As for the emotional impact, who the heck knows. When the Brewers were 4 games under, I was told that the players couldn't be any lower and the team would probably just collapse. Instead, they got insanely hot and jettisoned back onto the playoff race. The typical sports psycho-analysis you find on message boards just don't seem very objective to me. I find it pretty impossible to expect the emotional impact to even approach the impact of just adding more talent, though. I would guess the real effect would be much more subtle. And I can't stress enough that I don't think 2 extra wins is insignificant. For a team in the Brewer's position, 2 wins is huge. The Brewers' odds of making the playoffs might have jumped up from around 55% to maybe 70% (again, the actual increase is just a complete guess on my part). And if they do make the playoffs, they've increased the odds of winning any game Sabathia starts by maybe 10% over a guy like Bush or McClung. Dude, step away from the abacus for 5 minutes and try to actually enjoy the baseball season. I think this is obvious to most but I actually enjoy crunching the numbers and sharing them with people who are interested in such things. If they do not add to your enjoyment of baseball, I would suggest you simply put me on your ignore list.
  9. rluzinski
    Would you rather the Brewers had just forgotten about a "2 or 3 game difference" and did nothing, or perhaps traded less for a lesser pitcher? Contending it's not a no brainer = I hate the trade. How logical.
  10. rluzinski
    Yet you defended a worse trade last year. This is a no brainer What trade are you talking about? Linebrink? You must be confusing me with someone else. And we don't even know who the other prospects involved are, so to call it a "no brainer" is a tad premature.
  11. rluzinski
    That doesn't account for....or his playoff impact. Not to mention, a total attitude shift for the franchise. I thought that was what the Suppan signing was for? That stuff just gives reporters something to write about. 95% of the value of the trade is a result of what Sabathia does with his arm. But there's also the chain reaction. This should send a better pitcher to the bullpen, and also CC will suck up a few bullpen innings. I think we could see another 2-3 wins from a better bullpen too. Moving a below average pitcher (Bush or McClung) into the bullpen is going to have some positive impact but very minor, IMO. No where near 2-3 wins, on average. If a trade like this was worth 5 total wins for a half a season, it would be worth 10 wins over 162 games. That doesn't pass the common sense test. Again, all I'm trying to say is that the total expected impact on this trade for the regular season is around 2 wins. I'm not trying to argue that 2 wins isn't worth it.
  12. rluzinski
    This trade is about the postseason rotation, not the regular season rotation, Russ. There's still a decent chance that the Brewers don't even make the playoffs, so that has to be consider if you want to make an objective assessment of this trade. This trade might increase the chances of making the playoffs by 10-15% (admittedly, just a wild guess on my part on what the 2 games adds) and increases the chance of winning every 4th playoff game by about 10%. Does that make it worth trading LaPorta? Hell if I know. I wouldn't call an argument on either side wrong.
  13. rluzinski
    I just hope that Brewer fans realize that this acquisition should be expected to translate into around 2 more wins over the rest of the season. If those two games are the difference between missing and making the playoffs, obviously it was worth it. I suspect it's going to be Bush moved into the bullpen but I can almost guarantee you that he won't finish the season there.
  14. rluzinski
    Can someone explain to me what Burrell did to make everyone willing to pretend that he's not having a great year?
  15. rluzinski
    If it's the last day of the season, and they're playing the team we're tied for the WC with........then maybe. So you're saying... there's a chance! Yes!!
  16. rluzinski
    I think Brewer fans are kidding themselves if they think that the Cubs and Brewers have been close so far this year, performance-wise. The Brewers have outscored their opponents by 5 runs this year. The Cubs? 97. The Cubs are projected to finish with around 6 or 7 more wins (depending on what system you use), which is a a huge margin. And the notion that a Zambrano injury or a Sabathia trade should be expected to make up that 6 or 7 win edge in half a season is WAY off, IMO. For instance, Sabathia is worth around .1 wins per average length start over Bush. That's assuming a 3.5 ERA for Sabathia and a 4.75 ERA over Bush. Over 15 starts and assuming that Bush can still be of use to the Brewers somewhere else, you are still talking about maybe 2 extra wins. The Cubs' replacement for Zambrano would likely be worse but you still might only be talking about 2-3 wins. And major injury to a Cub or a big mind-season trade acquisition by the Brewers will certainly raise the odds for the Crew to win the division but they would still be the clear underdogs. While it's certainly not wrong to root for the division championship over the wild card, I prefer to root for the path of least resistance. In my opinion, that's the wild card. Even if the Cubs and Brewers were tied in the division right now, I'd still probably think that, though.
  17. rluzinski
    If the Brewers get CC, or when the Brewers get another SP this season, the message is clear-win now. Thus, you are not willing to wait for your .210 hitting, weak fielding 2B to maybe come around. Whether you agree or not, it's pretty clear that the Brewers feel Weeks is their best option at 2B right now. If not, Dillon/Counsell have been better with the bat and glove this season, or a rental 2B is possible and wouldn't cost more than a front line SP. Dillon is a complete liability defensively at 2B and Counsell has never been able to hit in his career. If the Brewers want to play someone at 2B who is clearly better than Weeks, they will need to acquire one via a trade.
  18. rluzinski
    Who wasn't rooting for the Cubs tonight?
  19. rluzinski
    Assuming the Cubs lose tonight(and they'll probably shell Lincecum now), that would make 4 games on this road trip that the Brewers had a chance to gain ground and failed to do so. They could be .5 game out. So, basically, since the Brewers don't win every game, they are bad at getting into 1st place? I agree! The game stunk but it was only one game. When there's 162 games, crazy things are going to happen. The Brewers have stolen more than their share of games already this year.
  20. rluzinski
    This is just based on the result of the game. Had the Brewers lost, there would be no thread congratulating McClung on his "gutsy" performance. I know, I'm a wet blanket. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  21. rluzinski
    You guys are really predicting less than 10 losses? I know the Brewers have been playing better in the last month, but the odds of them continuing to win at above a .600 clip is pretty unlikely. When things are going well, predictions are widely optimistic. When things are bad, everyone predicts death and famine. Just the way it is, I guess.
  22. rluzinski
    I only watched via Gameday, so I won't pretend to have any insight but.... didn't he pitch crappy and just got a couple of outs by his defense that saved his butt early?
  23. rluzinski
    can somebody please hit this bum? I bet every other team says the same thing about Bush and McClung when they are dominating http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif This game is BORINGGGG.
  24. rluzinski
    If the point of the All Star game was to select the best players right now (at least, our best guess at the best players), you'd probably weigh the 80 games from the current season at about 30-35% and previous performance for the balance. Statistically, somewhere around the 130 game mark is when you should weigh the current season as much as all the previous seasons (50/50) In reality, people just vote for their favorite players, which is fine, of course. Trying to make "it count" and still allowing the fans to vote makes no sense, though.
  25. rluzinski
    600 isn't that bad, as along as it's truly a random selection from the population: "As the sample size increases, there are diminishing returns in percentage error. At percentages near 50%, the statistical error drops from 7 to 5% as the sample size is increased from 250 to 500. But, if the sample size is increased from 750 to 1,000, the statistical error drops from 4 to 3%. As the sample size rises above 1,000, the decrease in marginal returns is even more noticeable." http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/education/polling_fundamentals_error.html As was mentioned, online polls are far from random.
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