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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Ii don't completely ignore a pitcher's win/loss record, since it's neat to look at. There are way better ways to measure the quality of starting pitcher performances, though.
  2. rluzinski
    He has had a great knack though for giving up mostly unearned runs! He knows when to commit an error, I guess.
  3. rluzinski
    Suppan has been a bad pitcher this year.
  4. rluzinski
    Umm... just watching this in Gameday but I can still see Johnson frowning in embarrassment.
  5. rluzinski
    It's amazing how well our scrub lineups have done so far this year.
  6. rluzinski
    Rivera can't possibly be the best option to start anywhere but catcher... and even then.... OK. got that out of my system. Go Brewers!
  7. rluzinski
    Braun: .287/.322/.552/.874 Prince: .271/.358/.488/.847 Braun has hit a little better than Prince = Prince is a major disappointment and it would be a travesty if Braun doesn't START in the All Star game. This is where someone says, "What about RBIs!!!??" and I remember why it ain't worth it...
  8. rluzinski
    There's nothing wrong with being concerned about Prince.s weight in general. The silliness begins when people try to tie his weight to his current numbers. A week ago, his hitting line was better than Braun's! Baseball fans are crazy.
  9. rluzinski
    I'll still be rooting for the Cubs when they are playing the Cards, Marlins, Braves or Mets. It's still the best chance of the Brewers making the playoffs, IMO.
  10. rluzinski
    So, the Rays were projected to be above average. They've actually played well above average for almost half a season. For some, that means that they are likely to play under .500for the rest of the year? Is that one of those predictions that sports fans love to share but wouldn't put a nickel wager on it actually happening? What's the logic behind it?
  11. rluzinski
    Did I miss the press conference where MLB announced that run differential (not wins/losses) would determine the standings in 2008? I was trying to illustrate the folly of trying to use the resukts of 6 games as a predictive tool. I guess it didn't work out.
  12. rluzinski
    i'm writing this on my phone, so I can't look everything up. Tangotiger.net has a run frequency table that shows the rate at least w run scored for various base/out situations. That should give you a reasonable baseline. Fans of every team complains about this kind of stuff. I don.t know how to find the actual strand rate for each team, though. The Brewers strike out a lot, so I could see it being a little below average.
  13. rluzinski
    235 generally isn't regarded as hitting "well." Yes, his OBP was nice, but that doesn't always cut it. Alex Sanchez would love you guys but if you use only BA, you are often going to come to some pretty bad conclusions when trying to evaluate a player's offensive performance. This is a very good example of that. Weeks got on base at a great clip and hit for decent power (need to have a lot of extra base hits to have a SLG over .400 with such a low BA). For a 2B, he had a very good offensive year.
  14. rluzinski
    Rickie Weeks cannot hit. I'm sorry. Weeks, 2007: .235/.374/.433/.807 We can argue about whether we think Weeks can repeat that but you don't have to look very far back to find a seaon in which he hit well. Now, his defense...
  15. rluzinski
    Braun: .292/.328/.576/.904 Fielder: .292/.380/.528/.908 As long as we can agree that, as their stat line currently stands, a team of Fielders would score more runs than a team of Brauns, I think we are on the right track. Braun is still just a pup, so I think he has plenty of time to learn to be a bit more selective. Of course, if he just continued to do what he's already done this year, he's still a very valuable player.
  16. rluzinski
    If people don't want professional athletes making so much money, they need to stop spending money on their sport and making them worth it. Econ 101.
  17. rluzinski
    Our classy fans can find a reason in any game to boo. Still a 5 run lead, people. Shesh.
  18. rluzinski
    so, he basically bet $60 mil in guaranteed money that he will strike it big in free agency in 2012 and make way more than $16 mil. That's probably not even the biggest reason why he didn't sign. He's probably thinking about being able to lock up a monster, 8 year deal 1 or 2 years earlier than he could if he agreed to the $60 mil deal. You want to call that greedy? Fine. An immigrant family might call a guy changing jobs to go from a $100k to $120k salary greedy, so it's all relative. I'm not going to judge anyone for chasing the American dream anyway they see fit. Prince doesn't owe me or the city of Milwaukee anything but his complete effort while under contract.
  19. rluzinski
    You have to keep in mind as well, that what BP does is runs a simulation 1M times and then charts the results. It's really not an "odds" formula in the strictest sense of the word. That's just a Monte Carlo simulation, which is a valid way to figure out probabilities. As the number of simulations done get higher, the sample odds approach the real odds. 1 million simulations gets the odds accurate to at least 1 decimal point, easy.
  20. rluzinski
    Other than the 12 inning game against the Twins he pitched mostly in blowouts. The only game that I recall that was close was the Houston game that McClung started. I thought the rest of his appearances were pretty much blowouts. That June 10th Houston game and the May 27th game against Atlanta.
  21. rluzinski
    What happened to JP Ricciardi being sabermetrically inclined? BA and SOs? His comments are moronic.
  22. rluzinski
    How the heck can anyone have any opinion of Fielder turning that contract down when we don't even know how many years it was for? If it was 6 years, it was a lowball offer. Even if it was a 5 year offer, it makes little sense for Prince to accept it. Why would he want to delay his first (and perhaps last?) big multi-contract by 2 years? He's less than a year away from being a mulitmillionaire anyway, so it's not like he's going to have any financial issues (if he even does right now) in the very near future. People who think it's unreasonable for a ballplayer to try and maximize his salary is being unfair IMO. Every other American does it. Who gets to decide how much money is "enough"? Assuming a minor leaguer is deemed ready to step in, I wouldn't have any problem with the Brewers trading Prince this off season. He has a great stick but so does a lot of 1B. and when you consider his below average defense, his replacement doesn't have to match Prince's offensive value for the Brewers to still break even. You'd like to think that the Brewers could get quite the return for 3 years of Prince. I don't see any point in signing Hardy to a long term deal. I'd love to sign Hart to a long term deal if he can be moved to CF (which I think he can handle). If he can't, is there even going to be room for him?
  23. rluzinski
    This move confirms that Tavarez was viewed as the worst reliever in the pen. That begs the question... why was he being used in close games when other players were available (not talking about the last extra inning game).
  24. rluzinski
    I don't think they are uncatchable. I just find it very unlikely. If the Brewers are going to catch the Cubs, they are going to have to pass the Cardinals and most likely lead in the wildcard race, anyway. One step at a time.
  25. rluzinski
    Maybe Bush is due for a good game 3 of his last 4 starts have been quality starts, so it's not like he's been completely blown up, lately. I don't think a quality start at home against Toronto is an unreasonable expectation.
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