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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Braun really helped his cause by adding 33 points of OPS in one game. A couple more games like and this debate will be over. Until then… Are we saying we'd rather have Braun draw twenty more walks than 20 more home runs? Of course not. An average HR is worth about 3 times as much as a walk in terms of total run production at the TEAM level. Framing your question like that really illustrates what the misunderstanding really is, though. When we are talking about the value of OBP, what we are really comparing is the negative value of an out to the positive value of a non-out. What gives OBP so much value is that it adds base runners AND it reduces the number of outs a player makes. Unfortunately, that's the side of the "run producing" coin that's ignored when we focus too much on stats like HRs or RBIs. Every time Braun doesn't make an out, another Brewer batter is given an extra AB to try and produce runs himself. There's a tremendous amount of value in that. If fans want to judge offensive value better, they need to look at run production at a team level, instead of at a player level. It's a shame that an attempt by me and others to objectively assess the value of Braun's offensive performance this year has been largely met with the response, "You are either with the Brewers or you are with the terrorists." As I've already said numerous times, I have no problem with anyone voting for a guy just because he plays for the team he roots for or just because he likes him. Just don't tell me I also have to pretend a guy has been better than he really has been.
  2. rluzinski
    But it seems to have really revitalized the club, eliminating the memories of all those years of losing in those Devil Ray unis. Psychology is an amazing thing. Wow, I didn't know PECOTA took into account a team's uniform.
  3. rluzinski
    If Braun's OBP was .350 it probably wouldn't lead to as many runs as his pure power does. Take away 50 points of SLG and add 30 points of OBP and it would be expected to in an average situation, yes. Whether it actually would have based on the base/out situations Braun has actually seen this year, I don't know. I know that Prince would have more RBIs if Braun got on base more, though. Anyone trying to rationalize McClouth over Braun based on OBP needs some major help. While you've obviously spent a lot of time constructing that very compelling argument, I'm just not quite swayed yet. Like I've already said, even if I don't think Braun's performance this year is among the top 3 or 4, I still would like to see him starting in the All Star game. Honest!
  4. rluzinski
    I'm by no means saying he'll maintain this, but a power hitter that has strikeout issues has now moved his hands to control the strike zone. He has 22 Ks in 67 AB, so he's still striking out a bunch. He's just swinging at better pitches and his contact rate is silly high right now. Obviously, he's not going to be able to keep it up but every bomb makes it more likely that he'll be a productive player for the rest of the year.
  5. rluzinski
    Hardy took BP and fielded grounders today. He's fine and will be going tomorrow. "No Meat" just hit one a mile to deep center. Wow.
  6. rluzinski
    NL pitchers averaged less innings (5.79) and more runs (4.64 ERA) than a quality start, so one would expect better than a .500 win% as a result. Last year, teams actually won 1,581 of those 2,318 quality start games. 68%? Wow.
  7. rluzinski
    Under the current system, the goal is for the fans to vote in their favorite players. No, the goal is for the fans to vote for whomever they want to, based on whatever criteria they want to. You've chosen yours and I've chosen mine and no one is right or wrong.
  8. rluzinski
    It hurts my brain to try and figure out why Yost would think that that batting the worst batter on the team (easily) 1st overall.
  9. rluzinski
    And if you are telling me he's a better fit at #2 than #6, your hind sight analysis is working well too. All I'm arguing is that there is no statistical evidence that "proves" he should never have batted 2nd in the first place, as you contend.
  10. rluzinski
    So you are saying he should be batting 2nd then? Obviously when looking at this year stats along with the past proves otherwise. Yost should have known before the season started that Cameron would perform much better in limited action batting 6th this year than 2nd? That's some wonderful hind site analysis. And I have no idea what you mean that the past proves you correct. Cameron has done just as well batting 2nd as 6th throughout his career. I know, I know. BF.net and it's silly adherence to logic and facts.
  11. rluzinski
    Toronto is a decent, but not great, team (like the Twins). At least Toronto has a positive run differential (+19). In contrast, the Twins have been outscored by 30 runs so far this season. Preseason projections also had Toronto winning about 10 more games than the Twins (85 wins vs. 75 wins). Even with home field advantage, this series could go either way. Calling this a must win series is setting yourself up for about a 50% chance of being very disappointed.
  12. rluzinski
    Am I wrong for assuming that Melvin makes 100% of the decisions when it comes to who is on the 25 man roster? Yost may get input but I don't think he's the one that actually decides.
  13. rluzinski
    I don't care how fans try to measure performance for all star voting. You like RBIs? Carlos Lee is your man! I just know I'm not the only one to at least consider it.
  14. rluzinski
    We can argue over whether he deserves it or not but that's not how it works and it's not how fans of other teams vote either. I'm the only fan that attempts to weigh actual on field production when filling out my all-star selection sheet? Say it ain't so!
  15. rluzinski
    Well, if you feel that OBP is the most important stat for an outfielder, than no, I guess you aren't supposed to vote for him. I think, for any player at any position, one should weight each component stat (walks, hits, outs) in terms of how well they contribute to "runs scored" on a team level. It's pretty simple Braun has insane power but makes a lot of outs. He's still having a very nice year with the stick but about 8 other outfielders are doing better. You still want to vote for him? Great. I would enjoy seeing him start in the All Star game.
  16. rluzinski
    Astros, pre and post May 13 (when this thread started): Pre: 22 - 17 (192 RS, 169 RA) Post: 11 - 20 (119 RS, 176 RA) A complete collapse. What happened? Berkman started hitting a lot closer to his career norms (although still very good): Pre: .393 /.470 /.800/1.270 Post: .318/.414/.582/.996 Lee continues to be mediocre: Pre: .276 /.327/.503/.830 Post: .270/.306/.504/.810 Tejada remembered that he's really not very good anymore: Pre: .340/.375/.532/.907 Post: .248/.278/.405/.683 Some of their starters are to blame as well: Chacon 3.53 ERA / 6.67 ERA Backe: 4.64 / 5.45 Moeller: 4.26 / 4.96 They just don't have the talent.
  17. rluzinski
    I know I'm supposed to be a homer but it's hard to justify wanting a guy with a .316 OBP to start in the all star game. Then again, I don't agree with the 3 guys ahead of him, either. It just turns into a silly popularity contest, with the large markets getting a big advantage. Griffey might not even be average at this point in his career! 7 of the 9 starters in the AL may be from the Yankees or Boston!
  18. rluzinski
    I don't think platooning Bush is practical, nor do I think I'd want to even if it was practical. There's just no good reason to expect a larger than average home/away split from Bush. If anything, I'd think a flyball-happy pitcher like Bush would be expected to do worse at home. I'm tempted to think it's mostly just a fluky split. You'll find a million fluky splits if you look for them. It's almost impossible to say which ones are "real". Quality start is a very 'meh' stat - isn't it 6 IP, and giving up 3 or fewer runs? That's a 4.5 ERA and consistently needing the pen to get 9 more outs. That's more average than anything. What's so bad about being average? It makes you better than 50% of the starting pitchers in the league. I have no problem calling that a "quality" start, although we are really just arguing semantics. Quality can man a million things to a million people. Pitchers made 4,862 starts last year and 2,318 resulted in a quality start. That's about 48%. If your backend of the rotation is making quality starts more often than not, you are in very good shape. I would really like to see the 'quality start' term get pushed to describing only starts 7 innings or more with 3 or fewer earned runs given up. Then it would actually mean what it implies. A little less than 25% of NL starts last year resulted in that kind of "quality" start, so it certainly would set the bar higher. I'm not sure how particularly fair it would be to the backend of the rotation in the NL to focus on 7 innings, though. Even a mediocre NL pitcher doing well isn't going to get a chance to go 7 innings fairly often.
  19. rluzinski
    Branyan changed his stance and his swing. Major league batters are constantly talking with the media about changes they are supposedly making. It seems to me that they are usually a minor change that results in no noticeable difference in performance. For that reason, I'd just stick with Branyan's projection (updated to include his nice start this year). In contrast, it appears that the changse McClung has made has been drastic. We have concrete evidence of it.
  20. rluzinski
    Nope, the quality of my comments have been fine. Well, there are plenty of quality posts on that blog that strongly disagree with Tango's opinions, so I find that hard to believe. Your follow-up comments certainly didn't help to convince me to change my mind. Tango is just a guy with opinions. It doesn't matter where he's from or where he lives. It's not a competition.
  21. rluzinski
    McClung has been disproving it with each start. The "math" you speak of I assume is prior statistical performance but that evidence is essentially meaningless if McClung has figured something out with his control. His prior record may have no insight into his current true talent level. And that's important to note. Unlike batters (for the most part), pitchers can reinvent themselves (new pitch, modified delivery, conceed velocity for accuracy, etc...) at any point. This can have a significant effect on their performance, good or bad. As dixieflatline's excellent analysis shows, McClung has definitely done an extreme makeover to himself. Whether it results in long term improvement is yet to be seen, though. He's had some modest success in his first 5 starts but 27.2 IP of results is just not much to go by. Time will tell. Branyan and Kapler? Love their early success but I see nothing that justifies a large jump in expected performance. I think Branyan can be servicable in a platoon at 3B and Kapler is fine as a backup outfielder, that's about it.
  22. rluzinski
    They way I often see the "they are too old" phrase being used is when you have a team that's perennially above average but not by much. A team that won 87 games the previous year but did so on the backs of guys on the decline side of their career may not have a very optimistic outlook. A team that wins 87 games with a bunch of 25 year olds, is generally expected to continue improving, however. If the age adjusted projections are the same, it shouldn't matter, though. If anything, I might take the 32 year old with a more proven track record over the 25 year old with 1.5 excellent seasons.
  23. rluzinski
    This guy is a complete tool. It's not even eorth speculatelating over one of his throw-away comments.
  24. rluzinski
    Let's be fair for one time in an IGT. When was the last time Hall has had any significant time at 2B?
  25. rluzinski
    Don't have to worry about the inning ending double play with Branyan, at least. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
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