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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I just sold them through Stubhub. You should have PM'd me!
  2. rluzinski
    Vegas gives McClung and the Brewers about a 1 in 3 chance of pulling this game off tonight. Ouch. Steal one here and all of a sudden, this road trip is looking very good.
  3. rluzinski
    I could see Sheets willing to take a 20% discount and getting $15 mil/year. What's going to be hard for him to pass up is if the Brewers offer him 4 years and someone else offers 5.
  4. rluzinski
    Great stuff. It's interesting to see that all starting pitchers tend to take a bit to get their velocity going. It's also interesting that, like Sheets, a starting pitcher is sometimes willing to rear back and give a little extra on his fastball to get the last out or two of his start. Complete speculation but, I wonder if it's these "max effort" fastballs that has more potential to hurt a pitcher? Dave Bush's plot certainly could make the case that he's best be used in the bullpen. Let's keep in mind, this data is only from his starts this year. His velocity was significantly down during his first few starts, so I wonder if there was something going on, there. Certainly, something that needs to be looked at later in the season. Also, it would be interesting to see is a starting pitcher's endurance is better or worse earlier in the season vs. later in the season. Hopefully Josh will rerun this study for starts coming later in the season.
  5. rluzinski
    Lol. Didn't that already happen? No, agent sorta/kinda/not really did. And I was being serious. If the Brewers expect Iribarren to have better production than Hall, he has no future with the Brewers.
  6. rluzinski
    If Hall is asked to platoon with Iribarren, I'd demand a trade if I were him.
  7. rluzinski
    Coco had 5, 4 out saves last year, so it's not like Yost hasn't shown he's willing to go more than 1 inning with a closer.
  8. rluzinski
    It's a great accomplishment. It's just shame that injuries have left him a shell of his former self.
  9. rluzinski
    I can't imagine they'd want to tick off Hall more by playing a guy hitting .273/.338/.326 at AAA over him against anybody. I can't imagine that they would THINK that he's a better option than Hall. If they do, it's just because they are chasing some vague notion of what a lead off guy is supposed to be.
  10. rluzinski
    Two tickets in the Loge Outfield, section 209, row 6. That whole section is already sold out (as is most of the park, I would imagine). It's a premium game (blah blah, who cares, right?) but I'll give them to you for the season ticket holder price. $44 for both of them, or best offer.
  11. rluzinski
    Weeks is cheep, not a free agent until 2011 and, at 25 years old, still would be viewed as having a lot of potential. Roberts is proven and solid offensively and defensively (at least that's his reputation. I've seen some numbers that suggest his defense has slipped the last couple of years). I guess I could go either way on this, straight up. I suspect that the Orioles would want more and I don't blame them, however. Some of the stuff being thrown around in that thread is insane, though. DCab Roberts Sherrill and Burress for Escobar, Gamel, Weeks, LaPorta and Jefferess Cabrera is Dave Bush and the Brewers are apparently supposed to overvalue Sherril because he has a lot of saves so far? What a joke.
  12. rluzinski
    How can Hart sacrifice Braun and Fielder over batting 2nd?
  13. rluzinski
    Opps. He's been hurt the last week. But still! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif You made check out Gibbons' Wikipedia page. I thought this was funny: "On May 28, 2005, Gibbons chastised former Toronto starter Dave Bush in the dugout after the right-hander showed his displeasure on the mound about being removed from a game. The next day Bush was sent to the minor leagues. [2][/sup]. After the season, Bush was traded to the Brewers, where the former 2nd round draft pick became one of their top 3 starting pitchers and doubled the number of wins he had achieved in either season as a Blue Jay. [3]" [/sup]
  14. rluzinski
    Here's what Thomas has done since joining the A's: .319/.417/.516/.933 (91 AB) How stupid does Toronto look after dumping him after 60 bad AB? Even if they were trying to save themselves from having to pay him $10 mil next year, they are still paying him $8 mil this year to rake for another club! The whole situatiuon is just silly.
  15. rluzinski
    but let's just say that there have been threads from here that have been printed out and put up in the clubhouse. I hope it's one of the ones questioning the "battleness" of the team.
  16. rluzinski
    18830 May St, Chicago, Il
  17. rluzinski
    The numbers suggest that this series could go either way. Whatever advantage the Brewers might have in talent is just large enough to cancel out average home field advantage. It may come down to a ball finding a hole or a well timed K being the difference between a solid, 3-3 road trip or another disappointing, 2-4 road trip. Tuesday's game would be the one to steal. Oswalt might be sporting a bad ERA but his K and BB rate is still pretty solid. The Brewers are going to be the major underdogs. Now, if I assume that the Brewers home/road split over the last 2+ seasons is representative of their true split going forward, it's definitely not 50/50. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  18. rluzinski
    Twins fans are too nice to have them be our biggest rivalry. Now, the average Cub fan....
  19. rluzinski
    It's important to bear in mind that both contracts are old enough that (imo) the expected AAV has probably gone up quite a bit, MLB salary inflation is about 10%, so there would be a lot of adjustment. Last year, I asked one of the authors of "The Book" about Sheets' value on the open market after the 2008 season: http://rluzinski.blogspot.com/2007/03/what-will-ben-sheets-be-worth.html Let's take Tango's +.25 WAR (wins above reserve) per 9IP estimate for Sheets at face value. A big part of the equation is trying to estimate how many innings you should reasonably expect from him going forward. Conservatively, we'll use 150 innings/year for Sheets (and really, probably any 30 year old pitcher?). That's .25 WAR / 9IP x 150 IP = ~ 4 wins above reserve per year. Using his chart (which was derived from seeing how much teams have been willing to spend for a player at x WAR on the open market): http://www.tangotiger.net/salary2008.html 3 Years: $50.5 mil 4 Years: $65.2 mil 5 Years: $78 mil That's 2008 numbers, but let's pretend Melvin could easily get that 10% home discount from Sheets. That's about $16 mil per year, which is basically the minimum he's going to get with a solid 2008, IMO. Some team might be overly optimistic and assume 200 innings per year, and could offer Sheets $20 mil a year. No thanks. I think we have to assume that 4 years, $60 mil is the minimum realistic offer Melvin would have a chance of Sheets accepting. It will probably take more, though. Sheets knows that this may be his last big payday.
  20. rluzinski
    Yost is known to be a positive type of guy with his players and not give up on them, so maybe he just said Mota was the eighth inning guy to try to give him a confidence boost. That's a fair point. Yost always protects his players from the media and why shouldn't he? The coaching staff will let the players know what's expected of them privately. It might make some fans feel better by seeing a maneger throw one of his players under the bus but it generally serves no real purpose. TH will continue to take Yost to task for not going it, though. That only explains about half of the crazy things Yost says, however. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  21. rluzinski
    3B: Dillon/Branyan 2B: Hall/Counsell Then, bring someone up to be a middle infielder that will hopefully never play.
  22. rluzinski
    I think most everyone here thinks BA is a really bad stat. That and everything we need to know about a player's K rate is captured in their batting line (BA/OBP/SLG).
  23. rluzinski
    I'm thinking 3 yrs $36 million, with another $4 million for reaching 200 innings, and another $3 million for reaching 225 innings. And if Sheets pitches 190+ innings this year, what do you think are the odds that an offer like that is even considered? I would say, zero. That 225 IP bonus is a near worthless one, since even most healthy pitchers don't get the opportunity to rack up that many innings these days. 32 starts probably isn't going to do it. Here's the scenario I see being fairly likely. Teams are going to look at Sheets and are going to see a 30 year old that's had some nagging injuries the last few years but still pitched at least 100 innings every year (which is a big deal, despite many Brewer fans acting liek it might as well be 0) and was healthy and solid (3.5 ERA?) for all of 2008. They may adjust their offer somewhat because of his injury history but it's not going to be much (whether they should or not). 3 years and $36 isn't going to be even close. I won't pretend to follow this stuff very closely but are there any recent contract that would serve as a comparable to Sheets? Young (relatively speaking), solid pitcher with moderate injury history?
  24. rluzinski
    I heard that he and Gagne are "getting close", whatever that means.
  25. rluzinski
    The only reason Cameron's Ks are of any concern to me is because they are outs and he's made too many outs overall so far. Of course, he's had only 131 AB so far, so it seems kind of silly to get all worked about it in the first place.
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