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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    The 360 and PS3 have identical graphics. Anyone who says otherwise is a fanboy. If you want a high def DVD player, the PS3 should get heavy consideration. Otherwise, it might just come down to exclusives. The longer I have my wii, the less I like it. Every "good" game is just a Nintendo sequel. The motion controls seemed really neat at first but they just aren't very accurate. I haven't given up on console yet, though. I'll be playing Mario Kart this weekend (crosses gingers).
  2. rluzinski
    2 errors? I think Matsui deserved 4 for that silliness.
  3. rluzinski
    The two most common mechanisms to cause an ACL tear are a blow from the side which causes a shearing force of the ACL onto the PCL and a hyperextension of the knee which shears the ACL off when it contacts the femur. It looked like this was more of the hyperextension type injury from what I have seen. Man, I'm not so sure: http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/ouch.jpg O wait. Nevermind.
  4. rluzinski
    But objectively, I really see no way this team can make the playoffs now without corresponding injuries to other teams. Objectively, of course the Brewers have a chance of making the playoffs even without corresponding injuries to other teams. The question really is, how big of a chance? If the Brewers are a .500 team without Yo (which is a very reasonable assumption, IMO), they'd finish with 83 wins on average. How often would a .500 team finish with 90 wins (and a good shot at the playoffs) in the Brewer's situation just from luck? They'd have to finish 74-60, which is 7 more games than expected. Works out to 13%. Of course, they also have a 13% chance of finishing with a 60-74 run and finishing 10 games under .500. The point is, there's a lot of variability in final season standings. Unfortunately, the Brewers are probably going to have to lean heavily on that variability falling in their favor to make the playoffs.
  5. rluzinski
    I thought it was a good article, but I take issue with the last line: "Plain and simple, he has a lot of motion to control with his rotator cuff, which leads to his frequent injuries." His analysis seams sound (I'm certainly not in any position to challenge it) but does he really know if that kind of delivery translates into more injuries to pitchers in the majors? I've never seen any studies that actually tried to prove any of these biomechanical studies that are floating on the web these days. The proof is in the pudding. And even if we presume that he is correct about Sheets' delivery having the potential to lead to more injuries, does he really know whether, in this particular case, Sheets' injuries were caused by his mechanics? Pitchers can have perfect mechanics and still get hurt, so I'm not comfortable with simply assuming that their is a connection. It might sound like I'm nitpicking but I think it's important not to presume things to be correct just because they sound correct. Yes, that includes sabermetric analysis as well. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I wonder if Sheets had a more traditional delivery, how good would he even be? No more unique movement on his fastball and no more 12-6 curve? I wonder.
  6. rluzinski
    Season over. [/i] I know it feels that way right now (I uttered the same thing to myself when I heard the news) but let's think about this objectively. According to BP, the Brewers had about a coin flip chance of making the playoffs before the injury: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php They predict that the Brewers would have finished with 90.4 wins with Gallardo. With Yo going down, you can take maybe 3 wins away, giving them around 87 wins on average. The Brewers' current situation is very similar to Philli (they are predicted to finish with 87 wins and are chasing a team who's predicted to win almost 94 games). According to these estimates, Philli still has a 38% chance of making the playoffs. Obviously, Philli now actually has a BETTER chance of making the playoffs with this injury but ball parking it.. wouldn't the Brewers still have maybe a 1 in 4 shot of making the playoffs? Everyone has their own definition of "season over" but I don't think a 25% or even a 20% chance at the playoffs justifies making that proclamation. Their playoff chances have taken a huge hit but it isn't over yet.
  7. rluzinski
    Well, maybe this belongs in the silver lining thread, but if they end up like I think they will, at least maybe they'll pull off a semi-big trade for Sheets and Ned Yost will be gone. The Brewers would have to have a pretty bad 3 months in order for Sheets to get traded this year. Unless you thought that the Brewers were a below average team before Yo got hurt, I don't see how you could think the Brewers will be far enough out of it by July to be able to trade Sheets. Bush is around 1 run worse than Yo per 9 IP (4.6 ERA vs. 3.6 or somewhere abouts), so over 25 starts (about the rest of the season), we are looking at around 2 or 3 less wins. The difference between 88 wins and 85 or 86 wins could very well be the playoffs, so I don't pretend that it's small. And if any other starter gets hurt (and they are bound to), the dropoff just gets bigger. Here are the ZiPS ERA projections for the remaining rotation: Ben Sheets: 3.72 Manny Parra: 4.31 Carlos Villanueva: 4.46 David Bush: 4.64 Jeff Suppan: 4.76 Jeff Weaver: 5.50 This sucks!
  8. rluzinski
    McClung has pitched very nicely, sans a 2 inning outing versus the Reds in which the the Crew "punted", and let their long man take a beating, which is the job of a pitcher once in a while (ask Suppan). He pitched 2 innings in that game and pitched poorly. I don't think it's OK to just ignore that performance, just because the Brewers were losing 7-3 at the time he was put into the game. When you start selectively taking out certain performances, you end with the statement, "Yeh, but when he's not pitching bad, he's pitching good." McClung has pitched 11-2/3 inning so far and has walked 9 batters. He currently has a WHIP of 1.63 which, surprise, matches is career WHIP perfectly. In short time in the majors, he has not been very good and this year has been no exception. Pehaps he has the tools to suceed in the majors but he hasn't shown it yet in his short career.
  9. rluzinski
    In general, sports fans wildly fluctuate between out-of-control optimism and unbelievable pessimism. That shouldn't be surprising, since the major appeal of sports in general is its ability to coax out emotional responses from the viewer. If a sport can't get you to scream at your TV in delight or agony, it's not doing its job. With regard to sports message boards, the problem isn't when fans express that emotion; it's when they allow that emotion (happy or mad) to influence the objectivity of the opinions that they decide to share with the public. If you want to scream at your TV, "Braun sucks!" you don't want to nor need to justify that statement. It makes you feel good to say it, so you say it. When you decide share it with the world, though, you should be prepared to back up your claim or not share it in the first place. That's why the vent thread is so great. You can express your frustrations without having to justify your statements with logic or facts. But if the whole message board was like that… well, bf.net would be like every other sports message board. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  10. rluzinski
    When SOS are determined only from the results of a month of the season, I don't think it tells us much about the actual strength of each team that the Brewers have faced. The right way to measure the stregth of a team is to look at both preseason expectations and the 2008 performance, weighing preseason expectations much more. I wonder where the Brewers would be with that approach? Looking at just preseason expectations, using the average projections from here: http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/comments/the_2008_diamond_mind_projection_blowout_pt_2 I get a weighted average expected record of 80.7 - 81.3. Phili (86), Mets (95.2) and Cubs (88.2) are good. Cards (78.3) and Cin (76.9) are mediocrish. Giants (72.9) and Florida (67.8) are bad. Basically average. I'd consider the results of this year a little but not too much (probably less than 10%). The easiest way to do this might be to use BP's Pecotta adjusted standings (subtracting out the record so far) as the a reasonable "best guess" of each team's true talent. Someone do that please. for each team and tell me what the Brewers' SOS is, relative to everyone else http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  11. rluzinski
    Dempster twice (Who knew we would be calling him a good pitcher?) I would call him a mediocre starting pitcher based on his performance so far this year (no, I'm not looking at his ERA to make the determination).
  12. rluzinski
    Whenever I see managers try to ride the hot hand, they seem to do it based on results and seem to ride it until the good results stop (or rather, a few days after it stopped). I won't say that managers don't have access to physical evidence beyond the results; I just see no evidence that they can use that information to predict hot and cold streaks.
  13. rluzinski
    I think this is a bad idea.
  14. rluzinski
    Please. I want a 1-2-3 innings from Gagne. He hasn't had many this year (1?) EDIT: YUCK!
  15. rluzinski
    Average is good enough for 7 million dollars? What has this world come to? I wish I could be average for 7 million dollars. If you are average among the .001% of the population that has the skill to even be in the majors, you are doing pretty good for yourself. And if that skill makes a lot of money for other people, you are in REALLY good shape. Suppan is an average major league starting pitcher. He is no where close to an average baseball player.
  16. rluzinski
    It really has to kill Yost to have to bat Counsell 7th.
  17. rluzinski
    This thread could be merged with this (I won't dare suggest it should have been put in the Counsell threat on the same topic): http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=12171 In 562 PA, RH hitters have a .286 OBP and a .639 OPS against RH pitchers. It goes without saying that our RH hitters are going to dramaticaly improve on that number as the season goes on. It does not begin to reflect their expected performance against RH pitchers. And to compound the issue, even LHers haven't done as well as you might expect in their 201 PA againt them (.713 OPS): http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?team=MIL&year=2008#plato-plato You don't just look for weird splits after one month of the season and start making changes to personnel. The Brewers are not going to be as good against RHers as they will against LHers but they are not going to finish the season with a .139 OPS spltoon split. I guarantee it!
  18. rluzinski
    I only watched 8 innings on TV. Watched the last half inning on Gameday, while the wife watched a DVR'd episode of "Beauty and The Geek". I should have one the coin flip route, I guess.
  19. rluzinski
    Am I allowed to feel bad for Turnbow or do I have to blame him for this loss?
  20. rluzinski
    Another play that Weeks should have made won't go down as an error.
  21. rluzinski
    I don't blame Melvin too much for the Suppan signing -- from what I understand, he was pretty heavily influenced by Mark A. into getting this deal done, and pretty much had his hand forced into this one. I got that impression as well.
  22. rluzinski
    We signed him to about average market value when we signed him for 4 years, $42M. MVP! MVP! MVP! It was a silly signing based on silly reasoning and it's going to look really, really stupid in 2010.
  23. rluzinski
    Yeh, this McClung guy obviously has his control under.. err control.
  24. rluzinski
    Alright. That first just raised the Crews win probability to 6%! http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?gameid=280430116 Hell, I'm surprised it's that high.
  25. rluzinski
    Prince is so damn goofy, I love it.
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