rluzinski

Come on Brewers. I'm still listening. At least make this interesting.

Just pointing out that it isn't like he has 0 HR's and no rbi's right now.. plus I like OPS as much as the next guy but last time I looked they still keep score by runs as in Runs batted in and home RUN A batter's job is to maximize the team's runs scored. I'm glad that Braun ahs been able to knock some runs in while slumping that's only half the equation. We need to save Counsell for something? I'm always so confused.

though I never saw a bad jenkins on pace for 38 HR's. and 112 RBI's. Nor a .661 OPS?

I think Kendalls' LASIKS must have fallen out because he's 1 for his last 16.

Wasn't it just 3 days ago when it looked like the Mets were going to crush them and the Brewers came back and won it.. you would think the score is 10-0... That's different. It was a 4 run deficit but Suppan knows how to find those wins. Villy is still learning how to coax wins out of his team.

Bold Prediction: Inning 1: 2 Runs Innings 2: 1 Run Inning 3-9: 0 runs That's right. A 167 pitch complete game!

As bad of a start as this is... we could easily still win this game, guys. Stuff like this happens all the time. I'm no longer watching the game but i'm listening to Ueck and doing homework. Don't turn it off just yet. This is where you get to hear that the Brewers never come back. Maybe something about lacking the eye of the tiger. Me? I'll just wait to see what happens.

We are going to lose tonight. Badly. Told ya. They only playing 2 tonight!?

This is kinda depressing.

The hardest thing to find in baseball is a true number one starter and that is why Sheets needs to be resigned. And many fans of other teams are saying, "The hardest thing to find in baseball is a true number one starter and that is why Sheets needs to be signed next year."

How a team is "swinging the ball" early in a game doesn't tell us much about what to expect in the later innings. Hot bats early doesn't necessarily mean hot bats late. Cold bats early doesn't necessaly mean cold bats late. We've all seen plenty of games illustrating that fact. The most important factor in determining the prospects of scoring is the opponents pitcher and the teams fielding. The game was effectively over by the time Turnbow got in there because the Brewers were down 3 runs with 3 outs left. Here were the win probabilities for the Brewers before and after Turnbow: 4-1: 3.1% 6-1: .7% If Turnbow is going to only be used in unimportant situations, last night certainly fit the bill. Someone has to pitch.

I think you will consistently see numbers similar to last year for both players throughout their careers. These guys have HOF caliber talent. I guess I'm curious what indications, if any, there are that they could not maintain similar results over time? Any time a player has an OPS over 1.000, there's a reasonable chance that he just had his career year. That's doubly true for a rookie. There just aren't many players who have a "true" talent level that high. Would I expect (over 50% chance) neither to ever match their seasons last year? Naaa. I'd probably expect some regression this year frm Prince but I think he'll play at a high level for many years. Braun is a bit more of a wild card. He had a monster year as a rookie but seems to struggle somewhat with plate discipline. Should we be surprised if he puts up a bunch of .275/.340/.550 seasons, without ever being to match his rookie compaign? He wouldn't be surprised nor disappointed.

Most of these players already have hundreds if not thousands of ML ABs. It's going to take a lot more that 50 AB before I start adjusting my offensive expectations for the players involved, good or bad. Prince and Braun are going to do much better (although possibly not better than last year, as they both had monster seasons) and Kendall and Kapler are going to do worse. It's just how it works. I am more interested in guys like Weeks and Hardy; players who's production could go either way, IMO. That said, it sure has been pretty ugly on the offensive side so far. If it weren't for the Brewer's great production with RISP (.321/.386/.422/.808), their record might be much worse.

I don't think we have a lineup of players with extreme platoon splits. Still, I don't see why we would NOT expect a repeat of last year. If you don't think the players involved have extreme platoon splits, why would you expect another year of extreme platoon splits? As I pointed out in my first post, with a league avarage platoon split, even if you assume the Brewers will NEVER have the platoon advantage against righties this year (and their best hitter might disagree with that assumption), their OPS should only be expected to be aroung .040 lower against righties. Perhaps the Brewers DO have some batters with above average expected platoon splits but it's impossible to know based on the samples they have against LH pitchers. As a result, we shouldn't simply assume the same split as last year, since last year was very extreme. I mean, look at this: Brewers RH Hitters in 2008: vs. RH: 245/.300/.417/.717 vs. LH: .304/.373/.529/.902

You will find no one but Yost and possibly Melvin that disagrees. Hall is a guesser with decent power. Hart is easily the better overall hitter. With the pitcher batting 8th, it feels like Hart's talent are really being wasted in the 6th spot. That said, I don't think it has much of an impact on expected run scored. It's just really... annoying.

This what Brewers did last year: vs. RH: .252/.316/.439/.755 vs. LH: .288/.360/.499/.860 This year, not including today: vs. RH: .230/.278/.363/.641 vs. LH: .300/.363/.543/.906 Not only do I not expect the current split to continue (I think we all agree on that, though), I don't think we should expect even the same platoon split as last year (a .105 OPS split is HUGE). Unless we think that the team is comprised of players that all have extreme platoon splits , I don't see how we should expect a repeat of last year. And really, we have no way of knowing what players have unusually large, expected platoon splits, anyway. The approximate average platoon split for a RH handed hitter from 2002 - 2004 (from "The Book"): OBP: .014 SLG: .023 OPS: .037 As the Book points out, there is some decent variation for batter to batter in their expected split. Some RH batters do struggle a lot more against same handed pithers than others. But a RH batter needs a very large sample against lefties before you can even identify which ones they are (around 2,000 PA!). Kendall is pretty close to that threshold (he has 1631 PA against lefties, .038 OPS split.. league average). Cameron is close as well (1572 PA, .076 OPS split, which has to be regressed to the mean somewhat). No other regular is even close. As a team, we are forced to expect a league average platoon split. There just isn't enough evidence to the contrary. Is it going to hurt the Brewers more than an average team? Yes. But the average good right handed hitter is typically still expected to be pretty decent against a right handed pitcher. They are going to lose their share of games when a Rh pitcher is on the mound but it's most likely not going to be a big deal overall.

Dillon tells you all to CHUT YO MOUTH! Nice play. Bush thanks you.

Why cant Gross be the one to run into a wall and DL Seriously, can't you just got to milwaukeebrewers.com if you want to make comments like that? They'll all laugh and say how funny you are!

OK, let Bush finish up the bottom of the order in the 5th and then one of those nice, fresh arms in there for the 6th! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif i don't say that because OMG he fallz apart int eth 6th! i say that because he'd a bottom of the rotation pitcher and the bullpen is rested.

I don't know. This isn't the first time beard has had an issue with his hip. Have to start wondering if it's going to be chronic.

Do hot bats carry through mild injuries? I never know how this stuff works. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

You have to love Wikipedia: "On April 15, 2008, Weaver signed a 1-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers for an estimated $4-5 million.[1]" Yes, I fixed it. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif But his personal demons seem to be holding him back to this day What issues are those? Smoking pot?

If you don't mind waiting for payment till this Friday when I get paid I'll buy it off you Russ. That's fine. Email me at rluzinski at hotmail dot com and we'll figure out how to do the exchange (Green Bay to Minneapolis = mail I assume).

So Logan, even 3 YEARS worth of a sample isn't big enough? In many cases, that's longer than most dudes' entire careers! Time is irrelevant; it's the number of events in each group that's key. The largest of any of the samples is 104 AB (batting #5). That isn't a very large sample. The fact that the results of the split is so counterintuitive should be a huge clue that the the averages of the samples are probably misleading.

So if a pitcher is having an off day you are more likley to get him early in the game? Their conclusion was simply that you can't identify if a pitcher is "off" based on only a rocky start.