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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    The tool is based on a study by Cyril Morong: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/12/133645/296 It's regression analysis based on data from the 1989-2002 seasons. So, all he really did was find the run value of OBP and SLG in an average lineup over that period. It's certainly interesting and useful to see how valuable a particular player in an average lineup would be in each lineup position. Where a tool based on that approach falls apart is when you use it to test nontraditional lineups. For instance, a significant part of why the value of SLG in the leadoff spot is so low is because the pitcher proceeds the leadoff hitter in the NL. That's why that lineup tool is not a good way to test unique lineups. The Book used a markov chain to look at dual leadoff hitter theory. As mentioned, it resulted in a 2 run improvement over 162 games. A simulator should yield the same results. It used an average #1 hitter, #2, hitter, etc... as a starting point. Using unique players like Kendell will certainly change those results but I can't see it going from 2 runs to 25.
  2. rluzinski
    there is no way this stat analysis can predict the effect on the line up that this pitcher batting 9th will have on a bunch of players who have been stars at every level and are not used to it. It is correct that all these simulations assume that the players involved are professionals that won't purposely tank because they are unhappy with their role. I think that is generally a safe assumption. If we do that and assume that each position is filled by a league average #1 hitter, # 2 hitter, etc... we save 2 runs a year on average. There are other factors to consider, depending on the particular players in question. When Sheets is pitching for instance, since he's such a bad hitter, it probably makes even more sense to bat him 8th. Also, since Kendell does hit into so many double plays, there's an added benefit to batting him after the pitcher. Where that 25-30 runs saved estimate comes from, I have no idea, however. An average avoided DP is worth about a third of a run, so it would take a lot of them to bridge the difference between 2 runs and 25. I just don't see it.
  3. rluzinski
    I know that lineup tool is fun but it's based on bad math. The basis of that tool is finding the value of a specific player in a specific position in an average ML lineup. How can you use that to analyse a non-traditional lineup? The Book goes this route: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/introducing-markov-chains/ A simulator could do it as well.
  4. rluzinski
    The Cardinals finishing last might be as likely as the Brewers finishing 1st. It might not be probable but it's the next most likely scenario.
  5. rluzinski
    Hardy and Cameron, sure. But Hall has put up a couple very good years recently and isn't 35 years old. I still like Cameron but I like Fielder, Braun, Hart, Weeks and Hall more.
  6. rluzinski
    This does not worry me one bit. In the same vein, when some 32 year old AAA lifer has a hot first week in Spring Training, I don't get excited. When a 3 for 4 performance can add 90 points to your BA it's just too early to even care, IMO. That said, I think people might be a little TOO optimistic about Weeks this year.
  7. rluzinski
    Why are people pretending that Fielder is freaking out about this? He didn't like what he was paid last year and nothing happened. He doesn't like what he's getting paid this year and nothing will happen. If the Brewers pay him market value when he's a free agent, they'd have avery good chance of retaining his services, IMO. Is it just a matter of time before a pre-arby guy like Fielder takes MLB to court claiming that they are not being payed fair market value. He'll have to sue the players' union then, since they are the ones who agreed to the system.
  8. rluzinski
    I agree that every situation is different but 25-30 runs is A LOT. If the difference between an average situation and Kendall is less double plays, there's no way. Yost is pretty much crazy. On one hand, he's willing to think way out of the box and bat Kendell 9th. On the other hand, he breaks the cardinal sabermetric lineup rule by batting his maybe 6th best hitter 2nd. If you want to follow "The Book", you take this: "Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2 and #4 slots. Your fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality." And using your favorite projection system (I'll use ZiPS): http://rluzinski.blogspot.com/2008/01/2008-brewer-offensive-zips-projections.html You come up with something like this (with the the pitcher 8th thing): Hart Fielder Hall Braun Weeks Cameron Hardy Pitcher Kendell Of course, there are other factors to consider, but any lineup that doesn't have Cameron featured anywhere near the top of the lineup would be a good start in my book.
  9. rluzinski
    On the issue of protection, it is true that sabrmetric studies have shown no significant increase in offensive production between a protected hitter and a non-protected one. But they have confirmed that good hitters see more walks when weak hitters bat behind them than they do with stronger hitters "protecting" them. So in the respect that pitchers may choose to take the bat out of a player's hands because a less effective batter is on deck, it seems there is a case to be made for protection. Why would getting more walks be a bad thing? If the hitter is disciplined, he's going to increase his OBP while maintaining his power. Unless he's being followed by a pitcher, that's going to result in more runs scored for his team, which is all that really matters. Furthermore, most sabrmetric studies on the issue have not looked at the pitch-by-pitch analysis of the situation. Could it be that batters with better protection do actually see more fastballs? If so, wouldn't that also be a case for the theory of protection? Here's something related to that: http://actasports.com/sow.php?id=139 Very small differences though. i think it's reasonable to assume a protected hitter might see slightly more fastballs but I don't suspect that it's going to translate into a significant difference in performance. In our case, we aren't talking about Braun being protected by a pitcher, after all. Hart is a damn good hitter. As for Kendall, his career stats are meaningless at this point in his career. A .330 OBP is a good guess for him this year.
  10. rluzinski
    Vargas has been good. So have Villy and Parra. Bush and Capuano have not been -- not likely what Yost and Co. were hoping to see. Those three players have a pitched a combined 19 innings so far. At this point, all Yost and Co. want to see is that their pitchers don't get hurt while getting back into the groove of things.
  11. rluzinski
    A 10 year contract to a guy who's already not a very good defender at the easiest position would have me concerned. Unless the Brewers move to the AL sometime soon, no thanks.
  12. rluzinski
    I did think Dillon had a great chance to make the team in the offseason, but seeing the way Kapler has been playing, I'm not so sure anymore. Are you referring to Kapler's .748 OPS in 13 AB this spring?
  13. rluzinski
    "completely ignored the results of spring training" might be a bit extreme. I just meant that they'd be better off than if the alternative is worrying about the results of about a week of spring training. And everyone knows that this isn't an "open competition" in the strictest sense and they should be happy that it isn't. Why should we want management to ignore everything but a few weeks of spring training?
  14. rluzinski
    If fans completely ignored the results of spring training , they'd be better off. As DrWood says, what's more important is what the scouts/coaches think about his performances. If Cappy has an 85 MPH fastball and still can't locate his off speed pitches by the end of spring training, that's different. Provided that the Brewers believe that Cappy is still the same Cappy as years past, he's probably going to get a decent amount of starts before he'd get benched. If he has a 5.25 ERA after 5 starts, they probably aren't going to give up on him.
  15. rluzinski
    Actually its worse than that, it means to swing at basically everything when you get two strikes otherwise your manager will call you out. And, of course, pitchers are going to be less apt to even throw a strike at 3-2. If Baker really wants his team to swing more with 2 strikes, the last thing he should do is make that desire publicly known.
  16. rluzinski
    Garibaldi Milwaukee has my favorite wings.
  17. rluzinski
    Cappy post all star break 06' (1and 8 w/ a 5.17 ERA), 07 (5 and 12, 5.10). He did have a decent stretch in there, but those are not good national league numbers no matter how you slice it. The point is, it's not fair to say, "If you take out the part of the season in 2006 that Cappy did well, he did poorly." You can't select your endpoints to bolster stastical evidence. And as Ennder pointed out, your claim that Cappy has been consistently bad for a season and a half isn't even true.
  18. rluzinski
    ah, wonderful Lake Woebegon, where all of our children are above average. Every team has below-average pitchers. You obviously aren't willing to do what it takes to win.
  19. rluzinski
    Pitchers on average tend to be at their worst in the 1st inning and then the 3rd time through the order. I thought that was mostly a result of having to face the top of the order. Anyone have "The Book" handy? That obviously wouldn't apply here.
  20. rluzinski
    "Its one thing to say something around "you know I am dissapointed but I realize its a business and the two sides couldnt come together so they used their system for paying us out"," Instead he said, ""You have to respect their scale," Fielder said. "But like I said, I'm not happy about it. But I'm going to do my job this year." So what's the problem again?
  21. rluzinski
    It's pretty silly to call Brown a first round bust anyway. He might have been drafted in the first round but everyone knew he wasn't a real first rounder. Bean didn't want to pay for one.
  22. rluzinski
    This whole thing isn't a big deal anyway. Prince doesn't like what he's getting paid this year but he's moving on. Yeh, he should probably knwo better than to discuss his salary publically but he did the same thing last year and it didn't turn out to matter anyway.
  23. rluzinski
    $10 million a year is hardly a low ball. Ryan Howard is making that, and thats what he asked for. Its a fair deal now, it will keep him happy for at least 3 years, and at the very least, it would basically leave the Brewers blameless for paying him $670k for a year Sorry, I didn't realize you meant that 1 of the years would include this year. As sbrylski06 illustrated, that would be a pretty fair deal (4 years, not 5). Short of a contract like the above, I still don't see why the Brewers should be shamed into paying Prince more this year, however. It's a goody system but it's the one the players' union agreed to and in a few short years, Prince will be enjoying the benefits of that system. Of course, I don't buy that a little good will now might translate into Prince giving the Brewers millions of dollars of "home discount" when he becomes a free agent, especially since Boras is representing him.
  24. rluzinski
    "If we offer him $40 for 4 years, you're right, he probably won't take it. But considering its his first major contract, I think he'll at least think twice about it." I fail to see how offering Prince a lowball contract is going to make up for not giving him $900 grand this year. And I know in fantasy baseball leagues, there's always some yahoo offering lopsided trades to everyone, in hopes that one guy is dumb enough to hit "accept". I don't think that works very well in the real world, however, especially when Boras is involved.
  25. rluzinski
    I don't blame the Brewers for sticking to their guns, just like I won't call Prince a sell out when he gets the largest deal he can when he's a free agent. That's the nature of the league.
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