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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    That sounds about right. Wolf has a 4.6 FIP this year and had good ERAs the previous 3 years. Wolf's rest-of-season ZiPS projection is 4.08 ERA but I don't see any GMs buying that. I think he easily projects to be a 4.5 ERA starting pitcher, however. That is worth around $8-$10 mil a year in free agency. About 40% of the season is left, so that makes Wolf worth around $4 mil for the remainder of the year. Including his 2013 buyout and assuming he reaches his IP bonuses, I believe Wolf is still owed $5.8 mil. So if Melvin chips in $2 mil, he gets $3.8 mil off the books and gets a bag of balls back. Again, this isn't rocket science. You could have the best player in the league be worth nothing in a trade if he is alrady signed to a $40 mil/year contract.
  2. rluzinski
    Well, KRod is at least rested. He hasn't had to pitch a full inning in awhile!
  3. rluzinski
    But KRod is so excited to get to 300 saves! As Brewer fans, that is supposed to matter to us! And it's over. What a crazy series. Glad these games mean little or I would be throwing things.
  4. rluzinski
    I didn't realize you score a run from 3rd without bunting. Crazy. I assume Utley made the catch in shallow outfield, with his back to the infield? Close play? And I'm starting to think Braun REALLY wants to get 30 SBs again.
  5. rluzinski
    Ron, get over yourself. You are not smarter than the rest of the league. In fact, your strategies suggest the opposite is true.
  6. rluzinski
    Trade any older player in the last year of a long term contract and more often than not, he has negative net value (value of performance - salary). Seems like fans struggle with that concept, as the tendency is to completely ignore what the guy is owed (e.g. How can Seattle give up Ichiro for NOTHING!!!?!?!?).
  7. rluzinski
    I think this should be re-titled in and moved to the "Something Everyone Already Knew" forum. I did the analysis in another thread and it looks like even if a team assumes Wolf is still a 4.5 ERA pitcher (and that is not an outrageous presumption), Melvin would still probably have to kick in some cash.
  8. rluzinski
    Hey, it's a game again. Agreed. In terms of performance on the field, my primary focus in the next couple of months will be things like: * Fiers: Will he continue to play well, maybe even continue to be great? * Weeks: Is he largely out of his funk (just HR'd) and can we expect him to be the old Weeks next year? * Maldonado: Will he continue to do well until Lucroy comes back? * Lucroy: How does he do when he comes back? * Axford: Is he going to be OK going forward? Whether the Brewers actually win... well, that is very secondary.
  9. rluzinski
    I believe we are at that point of the season where only the diehards know that the Brewers are even playing this afternoon. Crap, is it Thornburg's turn to give up a pile of runs?
  10. rluzinski
    Gomez is only 26 and sure enough, looks like he is beginning to develop some OK power for a CF. His OBP is still terrible but with his great defense, a team can easily justify platooning him and batting him 7th. He may even develop into an every day player in the next couple of years. Here's his current rest-of-season ZiPS projection: .246/.300/.384/.684 Of course, RR sees it completely different but whatever. At least there's a good chance that he won't be able to misuse him next year.
  11. rluzinski
    Well, the good news is there is a good chance the bullpen won't cough up a big lead today! Fun fact.... if Ramirez can average 16 GIDP/year (his career average) and play until he is 40, he'll get into the top 20 all-time GIDP list! Do they give you first AND second base when that happens? Thanks everyone for an explanation. "touched again on how much Greinke does like Milwaukee, and that if Melvin trades him this year it wouldn't discourage him signing with the Brewers for 2013." Glad to hear that. If trades are handled professionally, I don't see why a team couldn't sign a traded player in their next free agency. It certainly happens. On the flip side, if the Brewers don't trade Greinke but he still makes it to free agency, why should we assume the Brewers have an advantage over other teams?
  12. rluzinski
    Well, I hope we get some clarification from RR after the game.
  13. rluzinski
    Bases loaded with no out in a 0-0 game in the 2nd and RR plays for 1 run. Unfriggin' believable. Then again, he has a sub .300 OBP hitter, without the platoon advantage, leading off, so I shouldn't be surprised by anything he does. He likes bunts so he does them. He likes players, so he plays them. No logic necessary. What happened with Maldonado getting picked off 3rd last night? Botched squeeze or just caught leading off too far?
  14. rluzinski
    It should be obvious that Dempster has pitched way over his abilities so far in 2012. I don't think any GM would expect him to outpitch Greinke going forward.
  15. rluzinski
    Even if we want to pretend that RR should have been playing for the win above everything else, the difference between Greinke and even a bad bullpen for one IP is almost nothing with a 5 run lead. You shouldn't play every game like it is game 7 of the World Series, especially when you've been all but eliminated from the playoffs, weeks ago.
  16. rluzinski
    Ichiro is a good defender but not THAT good: UZR: 2008: 8.1 runs 2009: 8.5 2010: 15.1 2011: -5.7 2012: 15.6 (~half season) ------------------------- He perhaps worth around 10 runs/year above average defensively, a couple of runs for base running and probably solidly below average, offensively? His rest-of-season projection sits at .273/.309/.348. $2 mil for less than a half season sounds pretty close to what he's worth, no? The Yankees don't pay for wins like other teams. They're getting a huge box office draw (not that they necessarily need it) + superb defense (+10 runs/year isn't elite??) + solid base-running + upside. Ichiro's BABIP has been insanely low relative to his career baseline the last year and a half; that's probably him getting old, but it's also probable he's been unlucky a bit too. I don't think Ichiro is totally done for and I bet he has a nice finish to the season in NYC, even if he's no longer one of the top players in the game. My point was that it looks like the Yankees paid market value for wins here even if we assume that Ichiro doesn't have a huge rebound.
  17. rluzinski
    Ichiro is a good defender but not THAT good: UZR: 2008: 8.1 runs 2009: 8.5 2010: 15.1 2011: -5.7 2012: 15.6 (~half season) ------------------------- He perhaps worth around 10 runs/year above average defensively, a couple of runs for base running and probably solidly below average, offensively? His rest-of-season projection sits at .273/.309/.348. $2 mil for less than a half season sounds pretty close to what he's worth, no?
  18. rluzinski
    This is why so many of us weren't in any rush to have Axford replaced.
  19. rluzinski
    Ishikawa for me. Gomez is a big defensive upgrade but against a RHP, I'll take a left handed batter.
  20. rluzinski
    To fool them into what? Proving he's just having a bad season? Weeks just doesn't want it as much as JohnBriggs.
  21. rluzinski
    You forgot about .284 OBP Gomez against a RHP once against batting in front of Braun. The Brewers are actually favorites today, though.
  22. rluzinski
    FIP estimates how a pitcher would perform with a given HR, BB and K rate if he had average results on BIP. If you think is useless, I better never hear your quote a pitcher's in season ERA as an indicator of his true talent. FIP is not a projection. WAR is not a projection. They are tools that provide insight.
  23. rluzinski
    FIP is only meaningless to the people who don't know how to use it. It's not a projection and shouldn't be used as one.
  24. rluzinski
    Noy saying I'd necessarily send him down but of course it matters. How could you argue otherwise?
  25. rluzinski
    The result of the game is meaningless in terms of whether the Brewers make the playoffs but man. The game is pretty close to over and it's the first inning.
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