rluzinski

You have a good AB by not making outs and/or hitting for power (unless they are paying him 7 figures to sacrifice). Kotsay does neither well anymore. He's a .315/.360 guy these days. That is bad even for a back up outfielder.

Don't worry. They'll say that wasn't a squeeze atempt and the Brewers are really 12-12 on attempts. In reality, RR should be managing a high school. In all honesty it's on Segura to not get a bunt down, but it should start being on RR for not letting his players play and do their job. This constant bunting gaqrbage makes it seem as though he has no faith for hwis guys to get the job done. Not to mention, he manages himself out of the possibility of a big inning by all these bunts. I swear - runner on 3rd less than two outs with anyone but the 2-6 hitters and it's almost guaranteed to be a squeeze. We get it, RR, and it's not cute anymore. Expecting a successful bunt evert time is part of RR's delusion.

Don't worry. They'll say that wasn't a squeeze atempt and the Brewers are really 12-12 on attempts. In reality, RR should be managing a high school.

There is nothing novel about what you are proposing. The seasonal value of a particular performance is some kind of rate metric multiplied by duration. Then compare that to a baseline of your choice. That's exactly what the basic framework of WAR does, for instance. fWAR (Fangraphs) says Sheets has had 7 above average seasons. rWAR (Baseball Reference) says 6. I typically use rWAR when looking at career stats. How many "good" years has Sheets had? I don't even know what that means, so I am not going to argue against your 2 season claim. It's completely subjective.

Thank's PKBadger. For the starting rotation, after Gallardo, Fiers and Estrada, I would guess the Brewers sign a free agent starting pitcher and fill the last spot internally. I could see them budget something like $12 mil for the free agent. Even though I wish he wouldn't, Melvin will probably throw another $10 mil at the bullpen. The only significant question marks are for position players is at CF/RF/1B (perhaps SS as well but I doubt it). I like the idea of Hart, Gamel, Aoki and Gomez taking care of it but who knows.

Gomez is having the best offensive year of his career and still only has a .309 OBP. he projects to be a .300/.420 kind of guy going forward. I don't understand why you would bat that at 1 or 2 in the order. I see that playing well enough at #6 against lefties and #7/#8 against righties. He has better numbers batting 7th this year than 2nd. It should be obvious to anyone that can look up seasonal splits that Gomez is likely to continue to excel in that spot, based on the results of his 23 PA there this year.

Even with the Brewer sweep, the Reds are still on a tear without Votto. 16-6?

You mean other than him regressing and the contract turning into an albatross? As someone noted, even if his bat completely disappears he still has value as a plus-fielder and a baserunner. I think that scenario is improbable anyway given his career arc thus far. To me, it's worth the "risk" at 6.25m a pop. Gomez looks to be a .300/.410 kind of guy, with great defense. I'd be find with 4/$25 mil.

Appropriately dramatic for a baseball message board but let's try and ground ourselves in reality for a moment. The bullpen has been absolute garbage this year but we should not expect them to give up a large number of runs every game. They have been one of the worst bullpens in the league and still have only given up an average of around half a run an inning. A terrible bullpen gives up a little over 2 runs per 4 innings. I'll take an extra inning of the Brewers' bullpen over Wolf going through the lineup a third time.

Why do baseball managers always want to try to squeeze out that extra inning from their bottom of the rotation starters? An extra inning a week is not going to break the bullpen. Wolf had already pitched 5 innings and was up to bat with a runner on and 2 out. Be happy with 2 runs in 5 IP and get a pinch hitter in there.

If he looked the same defensively at RF and 1B, he wouldn't have the same value at either position. That is because he is moving between positions of different average defensive value. The question is, if Hart plays a better 1B than a RF (and we would expect him to), how much better is it and how does that compare to the average difference in value between 1B and RF? I can buy the possibility that Hart plays 1B well enough to make his value the same at 1B or a corner OF spot. I think we need to dispel the myth that he is "obviously" better at 1B, so we can't possibly consider him at any other position ever again.

Or that looks like its still a sealed bottle... The wife and I always bring in refilled plastic water bottles. I just keep an eye out for what checker is being overly vigilant. I hate being ripped off on water bottles at a gas station as much as anyone else but no need to bother with checking for lax checkers. You can buy a 24 pack of 12 oz bottles of water for $3.50. That's 15 cents per bottle.

Fiers as the better projection but there's much more certainty in Gallardo's projection. Where that puts Fiers in terms of him being #1 or #2 is largely irrelevant.

Comparing Gamel to any 1B since 2000 with 250+ PA is not enlightening, IMO. It's common sense that he will rank very low on a such a list. Players who have accumulated a small number of PA's in the majors have rate stats that have a low probability of representing their true talent. You are comparing Gamel with players who have much larger samples on average. There are also issues with how you compared him to players with at least 500 PA. First, why the 500 PA threshold? Obviously, the higher you set your PA threshold, the less likely you will find a player was allowed to struggle for that length of time. I see no justification for using a threshold higher than 269. Second, you should be looking at all players who had a poorer wOBA in their first 269 PA and then see how many subsequent PA they were allowed to accumulate. I don't think that is what you did. Finally, you don't have to assume people have given up on 2013 to understand why some would like to see him play a role next year. The notion that only terrible teams should pay $.5 mil for an above replacement level but below average performance at a position doesn't pass the smell test to me. You are paying below market value for wins and there are plenty of other positions to spend that money. It's exactly why I didn't mind the Hardy/Gomez trade. Unless you are the Yankees, you don't need all average or above average at every position. Spend the saving somewhere else. A decent role for Gamel next year might be to let him platoon at 1B with Hart (with Hart playing in RF against righties). That also leaves Gamel for pinch hitting duties when he doesn't start. I would prefer that over trading him for a reliever who is worth $2 mil and is getting paid $2 mil.

I don't think Fiers has a straight fastball. It's just more 12-6, like Sheets'. Lots of rise, little run. Curveball is 12-6 as well. The Brewers might have really lucked out with this guy.

Is this updated: http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewTeamSalary.do?teamId=1 Assuming the Brewers don't pick up Wolf's option, Brewers are at around $59 mil next year? $30-35 mil to play with in free agency is a lot. Let's just hope Melvin doesn't go bullpen happy.

Anyone figure out how much the Brewers have guaranteed next year? I scanned quick and got $52 mil. That doesn't include all prearby guys who will be getting $.5 mil a pop, of course.

You have to exaggerate a little to even call it half a seasons worth. There are plenty of reasons to not be excited about Gamel at this point but the results of his 269 major league PA over 4-5 seasons tell us very little. Gamel may not even project to be an average 1B next year but since he'll get paid $400,000, he doesn't have to be to be worth keeping around. O my goodness. 75 PA. Unforgivable.

Do you realize how much an average major league is worth in free agency? Around $9 mil. Is Gamel eligible for arbitration in 2014? Even if he is and isn't average until then, he has a TON of value. This is a real rough estimate of what he might be worth and what he'd get paid in free agency for the same production: Year: Salary, Free Agency Worth 2013: $.4, $4.5 mil (assuming he's between replacement level and average) 2014: $2 mil, $9 mil (average player, 1st year arby) 2015: $4 mil, $9 mil (average player, 2nd year arby) 2015: $6 mil, $9 mil (average player, 3rd year arby) ------------------------------------------------- Total: $12.4 mil, $31.5 mil That's a possible $19 mil in net value! Do I know he will develop into a league average player by 2014? Of course not. I think there is a reasonable chance, though. I sure as heck wouldn't want to trade him for a reliever who probably has little or no net value himself.

As others are suggesting, it's kind of foolish to try and project the 2013 when it's August, 2012. The odds of the Brewers projected to have 90+ wins in 2012 is probably pretty low but 1/3rd of all teams are going to win or lose 6 more games than they are projected to. A team just needs to have to get to about that 85-87 win projection to start being a realistic contender. I'm not convinced that the Brewers' 2013 rotation will be the weak link. Here are some updated ZiPS projections: Fiers: 3.28 Gallardo: 3.68 Estrada: 4.5 Peralta: 4.65 You have to take projections of young players with a grain of salt, of course, but I'm actually excited about the rotation next year. That is a cheap and potentially solid group of guys there. Depending on what Melvin does in free agency, we could see realistically see an above average starting rotation at a very below average cost. "I hope you realize that if this many people are questioning the way you present some of your ideas, maybe there is something you could change." I think he's already convinced himself that any resistance he gets is simply a byproduct of his audience not being able to handle "the truth". Where we are blinded by fandom, his can see the light.

I'd be OK with trading Hart or Gamel or neither, depending on the returns. I don't think Gamel is a star in the making but he'll be cheap for years, so if he could develop to be even average, he'll produce more than he'll get paid. Hart is a proven above average player and is getting paid like one. he's also only signed through next year, so there is nothing stopping the Brewers from having gamel be a backup next year and slide him into at least a platoon at 1B in 2014. But this nonsense about Gamel getting all the opportunities in the world and failing needs to stop. It's just so irrelevant. All that matters is how much we estimate his worth could be to the Brewers in the coming years. Because he only has 240 major league AB, it just can't help us very much with regard to that estimate.

KRod had a 2.64 ERA last year and 3.59 ERA on July 17th. The notion that using him is waving a white flag is being dramatic, to say the least. I don't have confidence in him right now either, but the aternatives aren't exactly inspiring either.

Wow, swung at complete junk with 3 balls and the bases loaded. Thank you.

I don't think that is true. The distribution of player talent in any sport is something like a bell curve, with the distribution of talent in MLB on the extreme end of one tail. You end up with a kind of pyramid shaped distribution. If what you are suggesting is true, there would be a glut of above average (but not elite) MLB players being consistently underpaid and/or overpaid. That would represent a major market inefficiency that could be exploited by other clubs. The pretty stunning thing to me is the length of these monster contracts being given out the last few years. You have a point but keep in mind, lots of these deals are back loaded by design and in some cases, batters may be forgoing a larger per year salary for longer deals. I believe Votto is an excellent example of this. He is something like a 6 WAR player right now, which is worth around $25 mil/year. When his previous contract runs out after 2013, he's actually taking a large pay cut for a few years. From 2014 - 2016, The Reds will get a projected $75 mil of production for only $56 mil. At that point, the Reds still owe him $19 mil if he never played again. You also have to consider the time value of money. The $25 mil he is scheduled to receive in 2023 is worth only around $18 mil in today's money and that's only considering inflation. Don't get me wrong, the Reds are still exposing themselves to a lot of risk but not as bad as if you just look at at what the balance of Votto's contract is at the time of a hypothetical injury.

For a position player, bunting ability is WAY down on my list of things I care about. How about we try to score more than one run an inning for once?