rluzinski
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Everything posted by rluzinski
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What I find interesting is the Mariners' projection for last place in the AL West -- I don't know if these projections were made pre-Bedard trade or not, but I've heard a lot of people saying the Mariners will push the Angels for the AL West crown. It's hard to ignore that, despite their 88 win finish, they were actually outscored over the length of the season, 794 to 813. I don't think Vegas is very high on Seattle either.
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What I find interesting is the Mariners' projection for last place in the AL West -- I don't know if these projections were made pre-Bedard trade or not, but I've heard a lot of people saying the Mariners will push the Angels for the AL West crown. It's hard to ignore that, despite their 88 win finish, they were actually outscored over the length of the season, 794 to 813. I don't think Vegas is very high on Seattle either.
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What I find interesting is the Mariners' projection for last place in the AL West -- I don't know if these projections were made pre-Bedard trade or not, but I've heard a lot of people saying the Mariners will push the Angels for the AL West crown. It's hard to ignore that, despite their 88 win finish, they were actually outscored over the length of the season, 794 to 813. I don't think Vegas is very high on Seattle either.
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Use this as a starting point: http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902score.html Chance of scoring at least 1 run: 0 out, runner 1B ~44% 1 out, runner at 2B: 41% Of course, that's just in an average situation, so I would never say never. Just the possibility of the sac bunt improves the odds for the batter, so it probably makes sense to at least keep it a threat. Also, if you have an especially poor batter up, it might make sense to ask him to sacrifice sometimes. But the average success rate of a sacrifice attempt is something like 80-85%, so you have to consider that as well. I don't think baseball should ever remove the sacrifice entirely but it should be used very sparingly (at least for a non-pitcher).
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It was released in 2006 Russ. Naaa, he's still doing that: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/the_future_of_sabermetrics/ He's done more for field of sabermetrics than anyone else, so I certainly respect him.
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It was released in 2006 Russ. Naaa, he's still doing that: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/the_future_of_sabermetrics/ He's done more for field of sabermetrics than anyone else, so I certainly respect him.
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"I wouldn't think there is anyone that's necessarily considered a "threat" to hit 60 Hr's. Hitters can be legitimate 40-50 Hr guys, but I don't think you'll ever hear that someone is a "60 HR guy". I tend to think if a guy is considered a threat to hit 40-50, he has the power to possibly hit 60. I would think a guy who normally hits 45 would have a better chance of hitting 60 than a guy that normally hits 5 has of hitting 20...if that makes sense." Sure, since you are really talking about a percentage increase. Even a great power hitter probably only has an expected HR total of around 45 HRs per 600 ABs That would mean that, for every AB, they have about a 7.5% chance of hitting a HR. By random chance, they could hit much less or more than that. For instance, over 600 AB: Chance of hitting: 50+ HRs: 24% 55+ HRs: 7% 60+ HRs: 1.5% Fielder seems like a very special player in the power department, however. I would be comfortable assuming that he could really be a true 50 HR hitter for at least a few years, which gives him the following odds: 55+: 24% 60+: 8%
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Yost utters first oxymoron of season
rluzinski replied to JohnBriggs12's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Yost could have used a better word than "pattern" certainly. But while that quote might point to his lack of eloquence, I don't think it's an example of flawed logic. "Pattern" is not an antonym of "luck". If something displays a pattern, it could still have been created by a random phemena. Sheets' injury history could point to an underlying "frailness" that increases his probability of injury, or it could simply be a "pattern of bad luck". Yost obviously thinks it was the result of bad luck. -
Bill James readily admits that he hasn't kept up with the latest sabermetric studies, so it's odd that he's always offering his opinion on the matter.
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Bill James readily admits that he hasn't kept up with the latest sabermetric studies, so it's odd that he's always offering his opinion on the matter.
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Is there a place to read recaps? I skipped my first episode yesterday. I grew tired of the feeling that nothing significant happens to advance the plot for the first 55 minutes of an average episode, only for something "shocking" to be revealed in the last 5 that does little to answer old questions. I asked my wife for a recap of the episode and she said, "Ben is Sayid's boss after the rescue." I'm guessing that was revealed a split second before the screen went blank and the "muted explosion" sound signaled that it was time to be shocked? What else of significance happened! Prove to me why I should come back! I want to come back!
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Google Maps Street View (3 topics merged)
rluzinski replied to Patrick425's topic in Off-Topic Forum
Looking at my in-law's newly built home, it's finished but the grass isn't in yet. It had to have been taken sometime last spring or summer. And this makes me want the season to start:http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/millerpark.jpg -
the brewers ticket office has got real good at alienating their loyal fans at the expense of the bandwagon over the past couple years. I understand your frustration over the situation but I don't understand your criticism of the Brewers. How have the Brewers "terribly mismanaged their group tickets for opening day"? They are doing what they have to do; keeping as many opening day tickets available for as long as possible. It's in their best interest to do so. They are going to cater to their season ticket holders over group ticket buyers no matter what the relative loyalty factor is.
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Short of an injury, I can't envision a scenario where Braun/Cameron/Hart isn't the outfield after 25 games.
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I think that the problem with these global studies like Russ and Ennder refer to -- is that they are done inside of global parameters, and then applied to specific situations. I agree that if a person uses a study to conclude, "You should never do x", they are most likely abusing the conclusions of many studies. But in this case, aren't we more intersted in the macro view? I want to know the aggregate value of having Pods on my team. For example, I remember reading a study that concluded that OFers would be better served to never throw the ball to the plate, but instead always hit the cutoff man. Basically there were more times when OFers stupidly threw the ball to the plate (allowing other runners to advance), than there were smart times (erasing a run at the plate), so the conclusion was based on the fact that all the smart plays were "washed out" by the stupid plays, and there happened to be more stupid plays left over. If that was their conclusion, it was painfully wrong. By never throwing home, they would change the environment that they were studying in the first place. It's like saying a particular pitcher should never throw his changeup because his fastball has so much more success. Commen sense tells us what's wrong with that statement.
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I guess I'll just disagree then. When you have a guy like Reyes, Podsednik, Pierre, or any other base stealer, it has to effect the pitcher. Again, the dispute isn't whether it has ANY effect on the pitcher. Everything you are describing is reasonable and true. The real question is, do those changes result in a tangible benefit to the batter? You'd expect batters to perform better with an elite base stealer at 1st but no evidence has been found to support that theory. Perhaps a new approach might yield a different conclusion but I don't think currrent attempts are missing some obvious, net effect. Without any evidence supporting a theory, why should I accept it as fact? Anecdotal evidence can supplement facts but they shouldn't supersede them, IMO.
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Twins sign Livan Hernadez 1 year 5 million
rluzinski replied to zurch1818's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It's just that I have not been convinced that these fake ERA's are better than regular ERA's, at least over an extended period. I think people who study such things would agree with that. I guess the question would be, what is a an acceptable sample size to balance out all the noise in ERA? Three seasons isn't necessarily going to cancel out fielding effects (the Brewers could easily have bad fielding for years to come) but you'd think everything else (LOB%, situational hitting, etc...) should even it self out much better over 550+ IP. -
I think a guy that is almost always trying to take a base on you is going to distract the pitcher. Pitchers will even change their delivery going with a slide step rather than their normal motion. Any runner at 1B is going to have some effect on the pitcher to some degree. Most will have to modify their windup of course. Also, any runner at 1B opens up a larger hole on the infield. That effect is more prominent when a left handed batter is up, of course. What the studies I've read have tried to determine is whether a prolific basestealer hinders a pitcher greater than the average baserunner. I've seen no evidence to support that theory (I don't claim to have read every study, however). You always hear announcers say that the pitcher should stop worrying about the base runner and pay more attention to the batter The question isn't whether the pitcher is paying attention to the baserunner. I don't need the help of an announcer to realize that the pitcher is mindful of a possible steal attempt. The question is whether that fact hurts his overall performance enough to overwelm any negative effects the basestealer might have on the batter's performance. Why do you dismiss the possibility of the batter being negatively effected, anyway? It seems a pretty reasonable theory (whether it's true or not). Because the announcer doesn't talk about that?
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You put the thought of the SB in the pitchers mind, and he could hurry his pitches causing walks or serving up meat balls right down the plate. You can't put a stat on that. That statement just doesn't make much sense to me. If Pod's presence on the basepaths had anywhere near the effect on the pitcher as you suggest, how could you NOT put a stat on it? This stuff has been studied. One of the most recent studies I've read (I think it was on hardballtimes.com but I can't find it) actually concluded the opposite; would-be basestealers (I think they only looked at the elite basestealers, while they were at first base) seemed to disrupt the batters more than the pitchers. Does that study mean the case is closed? Of course not. The study could be incomplete or just plain flawed. But none of the studies I've seen has found a systematic negative effect on the pitcher, so if there is a negative effect on the pitcher, it's darn hard to find. Maybe it's too small to detect statistically or maybe only a subset of pitchers are affected enough to offset the batter. Whatever it is, its not large or obvious. I know it goes against general baseball theory but why is it so unbelievable that it could be wrong? Science books have been rewritten countless times over the last 200 years, yet I'm supposed to believe that baseball got everything figured out right the first time? Let's have a more open mind than that, please.
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You can't get opening day tickets with a 9 pack anymore. I think you can pick any other game, though.
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Is there any advantage for the Brewers to sell group tickets for opening day over season tickets packages with the promise of opening day tickets? If there isn't (and no, it's no a rhetorical question, since I have no idea how it works), they are going to wait until the last possible second to commit to group tickets.
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I'm not a scout, but I do know that the vast majority of MLB pitchers do not throw regularly in the 90s. I believe that the average fastball for a starting pitcher is 90 MPH.
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A trained monkey could handle the extra decision making that is required in the NL. Deciding if you should pull starting pitcher for a pinch hitter can be a pretty difficult decision to sort out at times. That's really the only difference worth noting, however. As for this rumor, I'm sure Mark A. just HATES having all those Cubs fans come up and spend their money.
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Yost utters first oxymoron of season
rluzinski replied to JohnBriggs12's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It's the fact that completely random phenomena can still exhibit strong patterns that fools many to falsely identify truly random occurrences. Ironic, isn't it? There are plenty of examples of athletes that have never previously gotten injured all of a sudden have a rash of injuries. There are plenty of examples of athletes who had a rash of injuries early in their career go on to finish their career injury-free. Does Sheets have a higher probability of getting hurt this year than an average 29 year old ML starting pitcher? Not sure anyone else does, either. Yost has his opinion and everyone else has theirs. My opinion is, "I don't know." Injury prone or not, I hope the Brewers at least get 175+ innings out of him in 2008. -
I'm 31, married and have a 4 month old child. I've always wanted to live abroad for a time. Not looking so good at the moment. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Provided that you don't have to cripple yourself financially to do it, I'd study abroad.