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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    http://www.hardballtimes.com/gifs/nleastwins.gif http://www.hardballtimes.com/gifs/nlcentralwins.gif http://www.hardballtimes.com/gifs/nlwestwins.gif LINK
  2. rluzinski
    What I don't get is why there is a higher probability (69.9%) that the Brewers win at least 2 games then if they win the series (63.6%)? Shouldn't those 2 numbers be the same? It's not very clear but 63.6% is the probability that the Brewers win any one game in the series. From that one number, I construct the probabilities for all the series possibilities. For instance, the probability of a sweep would be .636^3 = 25.7%. I don't really highlight the individual game probabilities since, in actuality, they are heavily influenced by the pitching match ups (check the daily Vegas lines if you don't believe me). My probabilities essentially assumes that a every pitcher pitches every game, weighted by the number of innings each has pitched so far. Hell, Aquino gets to pitch for about 1% of the game today! It's meant to give people a rough idea of the relative strengths of each team and how that translates over a series. Even though the Brewers are huge favorites for each game, the Nats still have at least a 30% chance of winning the series. As I know many are fond of hearing, that's baseball! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  3. rluzinski
    There's a huge difference between moving a middle infielder to CF than the other way around. Middle infielders generally have the defensive skill to play the outfield. The opposite usually isn't true.
  4. rluzinski
    For the third or fourth time today, my point in the initial thread is that, regardless of what Gwynn does, he's going to take heat on a daily basis on this board. No other player (not even Turnbow!) gets this treatment. Only after someone types: 1. Did you see his catch? Gwynn is the real deal! He's earned the right to start every day. I can't figure out why he was ever even sent down! OR: 2. I don't understand why Gwynn doesn't get more love on this message board. What does this guy have to do to get praised? The very first nice catch or bunt single Gwynn gets will start the the marry go round up again and then you can act stunned that some feel compelled to explain why they aren't as excited about it as others. You make it sound like if Gwynn has a good game a "Gwynn sucks" thread will pop up unprovoked. He plays a very sound defensive outfield, and I wonder if that could translate somehow to the infield? Gwynn would certainly have more value as a middle infielder but that kind of defensive transition is almost non-existent.
  5. rluzinski
    The same guys who love to point to Gwynn's successes as being "small sample size" are all over him for his AAA performance in 66 measly AB's. I just add that to what he did in AAA last year and to his minor league career in general.
  6. rluzinski
    You seem to be confusing a negative personal assessment of a player's talent as a desire to actually see the player fail.
  7. rluzinski
    I think, "poking fun" would describe what I was doing. I don't think we'll see Braun and Hart batting 6th and 7th anytime soon. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  8. rluzinski
    Small sample size is real. Beaten to death on this site, but real nonetheless. I'd say that it's beaten to death about as much as the phrase, "I know it's a small sample but..." My point is that, if Gwynn does return to Milwaukee, there is literally nothing he could do on the baseball diamond that would prohibit a series of critical posts about him. He would have to perform well offensively for an extended period (200+ AB) before I'd readjust my personal opinion of him. Can you literally just not see Gwynn being able to do that? But listen. If you feel the need upon rumor of Gwynn's "cup of coffee" return to cover an injury, to repeatedly hammer home the point that he doesn't statistically project to be an everyday center fielder for Milwaukee, go with your gut. My post was prompted by you suggesting that Gwynn is being unjustly criticized on this board but we'll just have to ignore that fact. I think it's only fair for you to be able to call posters out without fear of having to actually justify your position. I currently live in Minnesota and I am convinced Luis Castillo cannot hit the ball out of the infield. Yet he seems to be doing just fine. He's having a horrible season so far.
  9. rluzinski
    Gwynn CF Counsell SS Estrada C Graffy 1B Mench LF Braun 3B Hart RF Weeks 2B
  10. rluzinski
    If Gwynn plays well, the anti-Gwynn crowd will flood the board with pre-emptive posts about small sample size, etc..., and be completely dismissive of his good play. If you think "small sample" is just some silly, made up term, used to justify ignoring valuable data, you might want to glance at Gwynn's stats in AAA this year: LINK You can't have it both ways, can you?
  11. rluzinski
    If the plan is to have Gwynn lead off hitter for the next couple of weeks, that's a huge offensive drop off. I really hope that's not the plan. I could live with him playing CF batting 8th against RH pitchers (although I'd rather just see Gross in RF against RHers, if Hart he can play adequate defense in CF, though. Either way, it would mean that Melvin would need to acquire a RH corner outfielder, unless Jenkins starts playing full time (which I'd rather not see, either). What I don't see happening is Melvin acquiring a big name, everyday outfielder.
  12. rluzinski
    It's just crazy that a guy with a mediocre minor league history might be viewed by some as a marginal prospect. It must be something personal, because that's the only explanation.
  13. rluzinski
    The Cub's offense had a .776 OPS in June an averaged 4.75 runs a game. There's no reason to think they can't keep that pace up. Their pitchers averaged a 3.83 ERA in June, however. I'd be more suspicious of that. The Brewers offense, on the other hand, had a .855 OPS and averaged 6 runs a game in June. They won't be able to keep that up.
  14. rluzinski
    http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/winprob707.jpg Pitching Probables: Game 1: Bush ® vs. Bacsik (L) Game 2: Suppan ® vs. Simontacchi ® Game 3: Capuano (L) vs. Redding ® No Sheets probably means about a one in three chance of the Brewers losing this series and Brewerfan.net exploding during the All Star break with a billion doomsday predictions. Yipee!
  15. rluzinski
    Provided that Gross and Hart can play adequate defense in CF, it shouldn't be too hard for Melvin to find a reasonable RH Right fielder somewhere. Depending on how long Hall will be out, Melvin may even trade some actual talent to get a guy with a higher ceiling. The Brewers still have been pretty lucky with injuries so far. I think they have the depth to weather this one.
  16. rluzinski
    If the Brewers don't play .500 or so on the road, our playoff chances are not too good!!! Actually, all that matters is the overall record!!! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Teams break those must-do-to make-the-playoff rules all the time. The Brewers current home/road split simply doesn't suggest anything with regard to the Brewers' playoff chances.
  17. rluzinski
    BP looks at the the team's raw stats to generate their expected runs scored and runs given up. From that, they estimate the number of wins they "should" have gotten as a result. So, the fact that Cubs have been horrible in 1 run games is not held against them. Finally, their expected win rate is regressed towards their regression expectations. They were projected by BP to win 84 games (Brewers were projected to win 85). If the Cubs have played like a 90 win team this year but were expected to win 84 games before the season, BP might regress their expected win rate to 86 games, for instance. The results of the Brewers' series against the Pirates tells us nothing about future expectations. The lowly Brewers earlier this decade won enough series against good teams to make that clear. 4 baseball games is equal to about a quarter of an NFL game. Would you be confident making generalizations about the talent of an NFL team based on a quarter?
  18. rluzinski
    but this is for after the game or series that wasn't played well when fans can get angry and it doesn't help us get over it when everybody comes in with numbers telling us how we're wrong. It's not possible to be "wrong" in the vent thread. That's it's allure. I have been comforted by that fact on many occasions, myself.
  19. rluzinski
    I come to the vent thread to act like a greedy child. I come to the vent thread with the numbers, not judgment!
  20. rluzinski
    and the recovery period is often even longer than originally anticipated. I would hope doctors would readjust their expectations if they are alway wrong. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  21. rluzinski
    2 or 3 extra wins would look pretty good to me right now. And they "should" only be 3-2 in extra inning games (instead of 4-1). Really, you can look at all kinds of splits and find the Brewers over performing or under performing all over the place. When you look at their runs scored and given up, they have 1 more win than expected. I think that's the best, overall indication of whether or not the Brewers are converting their talent into the appropriate number of wins. I know, I'm not venting. Sorry. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
  22. rluzinski
    BP is a good place to start when you want to estimate playoff chances: LINK 76% chance of winning the division 8% winning the wildcard --------- 84% chance to make the playoffs That hasn't been updated for today's results and with the Brewers losing and Cubs winning, we'll see a slight dip in the above probabilities. Maybe 80% or so. I've been saying this the whole year but the Cubs are a good team and won't just hand the Central to the Brewers this year. Hard to be upset with the Crew's current position though.
  23. rluzinski
    The Brewers had a 1-3 series on the road against a team that's 9 games under. It's certainly disappointing but even a good team will lose series on the road against inferior talent. A series win against the Nats would be a nice way to finish the first half!
  24. rluzinski
    I didn't mean to suggest that Jack was wrong to say high ankle sprains are worse than a run of the mill one. I just think it's a little too soon to assume that Hall will be out for at least 1.5 months and will be hindered by the injury for the rest of the year.
  25. rluzinski
    The total of those two was 22,968 innings. I then found the total amount of runs scored, which was 11,749. I then divided runs scored by innings played to get .5193 runs scored/inning.) That doesn't give you the probability of scoring at least 1 run an inning but rather the average runs scored per inning. You have to consider the actual run distributions per inning. The Brewers have scored 4.9 runs/game, so if we assume a typical run distribution for a 5 runs/game team, we can say they have the following probabilities to score so many runs per inning: 0: 70% 1: 16% 2: 8% 3: 4% 4+: 2% LINK That lines up pretty close with what you would expect an average team to score an inning: run frequency So, we'd expect the Brewers to score 0 runs after the 7th about 50% of the time (.7 x .7) against an average pitcher. In realty, in close and late situations, you are typically facing the opposing teams' best relievers, so the actual chances of scoring after the 7th are even worse. The Brewers are 0-17 in games when they score less than 3 runs. Our starting pitching needs to step up and find a way to win some low scoring games. The Brewers have given up 4.4 runs per game. That means they should give up 0 or 1 runs about 15% of the time. That suggests the Brewers "should" have a record of 2-15 or 3-13 in games they score less than 3 runs.
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