rluzinski

Am I the only one that thought Gwynn hit it out? Nope, I said, "O my god" to my wife off the bat.

Gwynn really got into that one. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

It specifically relates to the percentage of total runs the Brewers score via the HR ball, this much I know.

do we honestly need stats to prove Cappy has been bad? That is hilarious.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Is that really all you've gotten out of this thread?

The example of 99.9 of us is valid as you only need to be propped upright with arms to swing over the top of a slider by 2 feet. Once fans start up with the, "even I could do that" rhetoric, the actual analysis has ended.

MUST WIN

Just about everyone falls into that trap and so help me god, if you have anything bad to say about Bush... I hate to say it, but come August 1st, if not sooner this team won't be in 1st place anymore.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif Congratulations, you are the one millionth BF.neter to predict that the Brewers wouldn't be in first for long since May 1st...

I want to better understand the criticism, so I can take a closer look. Is the idea that a team reliant on the HR to score might have a good runs/game average but will have a disproportionate amount of high runs/game? Runs 4 and 5 are much more important than 6 and 7. I appreciate that fact. Is that what we are talking about?

isn't it just another way of saying that pitcher has been bad? "Has been bad bad" sometimes but does not always mean, "will continue to be bad". That's the distinction I've been trying to drive home in this thread and I don't think I've done a very good job at explaining it. If we want construct a best guess at Cappy's future expected performance, we have to look not just at the results of Cappy's recent performance (record and ERA) but also at how those results occurred exactly. The fact that his recent struggles has coincided with an increased walk rate is alarming, for instance. In contrast, Bush's sub par ERA and win/loss record was not alarming to me, because it was not caused by anything that was expected to persist (BABIP, LOB%). Some people don't get past just the raw results, so they miss that distinction. Who said anything about accepting a poor performance? ELCABALLO45 did, not you. Sorry if I didn't make that clear. You routinely cross the line to smug by trying to force sabermetrics on people, The concept of sample size, statistical noise and regression to the mean are principles that dictate all the baseball stats we all look at on a daily basis. If continuously pointing that fact out when it comes up constitutes "forcing" it, guilty as charged. Most likely the difference between us is that I've been in locker rooms and around teams August through June since I was old enough to walk and talk. This seems to blow up everyone's crude stereotype of what a guy who uses math is all about but in high school I was on the math team AND I played football. Crazy, huh? While I may not have spent my entire life in a locker room, I am familiar enough with it's pungent aroma to appreciate what you are trying to get at, but... Ultimately I believe what goes in the player's head is vastly more important than his talent. In high school? Sure. I got by with mediocre physical talent because I understood the techniques associated with my position and I was a hard worker. I knew better than to think that recipe would translate into success at the college level, however. At the pro level? Please. High school sports has almost no resemblance to professional sports. how long do you ride an unperforming horse? When is the right time to the make the move? How many games can you give away before you've significantly hurt your playoff asperations?...Those are the questions we should be debating, not what stat or metric is proper for the sample size. That's exactly what we are debating, you just don't seem to realize it.

I started this thread to illustrate that you can find a lot of odd but almost completely random splits if you just look for them. That apparently didn't work out. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

Weeks has done some good things and some bad things. You sound like you are just ranting.

Yes because when you start a game it is a whole different mentality. Starters generally do better when they pitch in relief. Maybe some starters might not be suited for it but Villy has been pretty darn good in that capacity so far. If a guy simply looks bad, sometimes it is just that simple. Well, of course not. No analysis can answer anything with 100% certainly, whether it's based on a scouting approach or an analytical one. We are all just trying to come up with our best guess. That said, I'm not looking for some way to justify an "everything is OK" conclusion. I just look at the facts and come up with an opinion. Sometimes it's right and sometimes it's wrong.

I think we have about 5 posts a year about something stupid Sheffield says. I'm surprised anyone even cares about what he says anymore.

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/seriesprob071307.jpg LINK

If those 4 things don't happen, our WS odds go way down. If all 4 of those things happened, the Brewers would win the division by about 25 games.

What's the damage in letting him get his timing back somewhere else and then recalling him when all is clear? 1. Getting your timing down in AAA is not the same thing as getting your timing down in the majors. 2. Weeks would most likely hate the move. (yes, I consider such things, as do most GMs). It's not like you really can predict when a slump will start or end, anyway. You start chasing your tail if you start trying to figure it out. Weeks' current year illustrates that point pretty well. First 130 PA: .849 OPS Next 69 PA: .638 (was then placed on DL) Next 19 PA: 1.127 OPS (right off the DL) Final 43 PA: .265 OPS What's the possible explanation? I'm relying on the assumption that Weeks' wrist isn't hurting his production. If that's not the case, he should just be shut down. If Weeks looks completely lost in mid-August, then I might consider something but right now, it's just an 11 game slump. Hell, Fielder had a 15 game stretch last year (57 AB) where he struck out 16 times and accumulated a .348 OPS! I'm glad we didn't send him down after that, since he had a 1.367 OPS over the next 38 PA.

1 in 4 isn't too good given their record right now. If their record was more representative of their actual talent, they'd have even a better chance of making the playoffs. No disagreement there but how is that fact even relevant to this discussion? I was proposed that using marginal wins to calculate Ichiro's worth to the Mariners was misguided because they aren't going to make the playoffs this year or in the immediate future. I just don't agree. The fact that they still have a good shot at the playoffs this year certainly makes those wins valuable now and as EDR pointed out, Seattle has the financial recourses to improve the team now or in the future.

I cannot begin to picture Melvin sending a healthy Weeks down to the minors. Before the slump started, Weeks had a .352 OBP and a .809 OPS, both very good for a 2B. Weeks has been absolutely terrible over this 36 AB slump but you don't send a healthy, established player down to the minors for 36 ABs, no matter how bad it was. If Weeks is hurt, he should be put on the DL. If he's healthy, he should be allowed to fight through his recent struggles.

Cuban would bring a ton of attention to the NL Central, and would raise the bar a bit. Frankly, if we're going to be in this to win championships, we're going to need to beat the best. There's a huge difference between having to beat the best over 7 games and 162 games.

I think you may be on to something. Day/night splits for the team this year: DAY: .259 / .321 / .429 / .750 NIGHT: .272 / .338 / .472 / .810 Give the lushes a couple extra hours to sleep off their hangovers and they are good to go.

The Cubs have a huge following and plenty of revenue. I'm quiet afraid of a competent owner bringing in competent management.

I'm playing Animal Crossing with it right now. It's an N64 game that was ported to the Gamecube, that I'm now running on my wii. Graphics aren't very good. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I'm also planning on getting Resident Evil 4 for the wii soon.

I think Dusty means that the 25 points of OBP and 100 points of SLG a slow plodder might add is negated by the effects of clogging the base paths. That's not really the case, of course.

All you apparently have to do is dress up in a nerd costume and write a "how to" for making one on the blog. Just google "pacman costume". I really just started my blog to document all the little mini-studies I end up doing on the Brewers. As others have said, if you write something link worthy, you'll probably get a decent bump in page views. I haven't really tried to promote it any other way. EDIT: In Al's case, you apparently spend some cash sponsoring a bunch of player pages on baseballreference.com How many players have you sponsored, anyway? EDIT: Fixed!

Inflated record or not, BP gives the Mariners about a 1 in 4 shot of making the playoffs anyway.