rluzinski

I think he does fine with the play-by-play calling but he just so... generic. And he's not very good at pretending to root for the Brewers either. There really isn't much difference between him calling a Brewer HR and an opponent's HR.

I just did a back of the envelope kind of estimate. League OBP is around .330 (off the top of my head), so the odds of making 3 outs in succession is (1-.33)^3. That doesn't include things like errors and the like but it is a reasonable estimate. In reality, relievers as a whole perform better than starters, so that should be taken into account. For instance, in 2011, NL: Against Starters: .320/.407/.727 Against Relievers: .319/.367/.687 Almost no difference in OBP in 2011. That's probably a little flukish but it works out to around a 1 in 3 chance of a clean inning. There are other things you can consider, of course but it gives you a good idea. Doing these kind of estimates keeps us from having unrealistic expectations. Closers for instance. How often should they be expected to blow a save? I don't know but just a rough estimate might get us us a feel of what to expect. A 3.0 ERA pitcher is going to give up a run about every 3 innings. In reality, it's less than that because of multi-run innings but it's just a quick guess. Furthermore, I guess that closers come in for a 1 run save about half the time. They will also blow some of the games when they come in with a 2 or 3 run lead but maybe that will help balance out the previous assumption's error a bit. So they'll blow a 1 run lead about 1/3rd of the time and half their save opportunities will be in 1 run games. 1/3 x 1/2 = 1/6 = 17% is my guestimate. What's the reality? There were 17 NL relievers who recorded at least 10 saves last year (selective sample to be sure). They had an average ERA of 2.73. They blew 83 saves and recorded 566 saves. That's 13% of their saves that they blew. About 1 in 8 save opportunities. Even good closers are going to have their share of blown saves without luck on their side.

The odds of a pitcher recording an out on the first 3 batters is about 28%. Allowing a base runner in 23 out of 28 innings isn't a big deal.

The Marlins have a different perspective of this series. It could easily have been a 4 game sweep of the Brewers, except for the Bell blown save on Tuesday and the pathetic defense ruining Zambrano's outing on Monday. From an objective perspective, it's two mediocre teams splitting a poorly played series. I wasn't suggesting the Brewers deserved to sweep. The fact remains is that the Brewers split after taking the first two, and the Marlins salvaged a split after losing the first two. Both teams are going to the same place, however (no where).

Annnnnnd, we are done.

If nothing changes here, this is going to be the most unsatisfying split of a 4 game series I can ever remember. My interest in this team is lower than it was on some of the Brewers terrible teams of the early 2000's. Other than Fiers, there really isn't any young guys playing that you can get excited about. The one position player (Green), never even plays.

Big fan of the 8/0 K/BB ratio WAYYYY to early to know what we have in Fiers but it sure is fun to dream.

I don't know why I remain surprised when Ramirez can't score from second on a single to the outfield with 2 out. Was it a line drive?

I don't know how much of a factor it has actually been but RR constantly plays for 1 run, basically starting from the first batter on. Those 3 run saves are probably a bit harder to come by as a result.

Like getting hammered on your company's dime?

These games suck. Why not just have Loe come in right away for all the righties? I don't get any of it anymore.

Johnson not getting the low strike. Turns into a run gor the Brewers. Owell!

Bases loaded and no out. Don't get cute, Ron!

You are free to believe what you want but there is no evidence that participation the HR derby is detrimental to a player's subsequent performance. I personaly think it's a myth. Sometimes, players who had a great first half, have a poor second have. Just assumed causation.

Um.wow

Hit and run on ball 4?

Ahh yes. Objective studies are obviously fataly flawed and your anecdotal evidence obviously supports your hypothesis. Same old, same old.

I don't.

There is no such thing as a career year in a contract year. Every year you play to your career norms. Yep, just a statistical anomaly, I'm sure. People have never been extra motivated for money. It's really cute watching people only remember the examples that support their opinion. Nevermind that 50% of the time it doesn't.

Sell!

Gomez has been good over the last 7 games? That probably is the kind of wortless stat that RR would use. Thank you for illustrating my point.

I think he just makes fairly routine plays look hard, since he has no range.

I think asking a player to pick the whole home run derby team makes for a high probability that factors other than "ability to hit HRs" will take precedence. Kind of like asking the fans to pick the All Star team.

So now Gomez is going to start taking starts away from Morgan against RHP and bat 1st over Aoki? Am I missing something or is RR's infatuation with Gomez getting creepy? I guess Aoki is such a great bunter that he needs to bat 2nd? I can get over sub-optimal lineup construction, as it has only a minor effect on run production. What I can't stomach is the fact that the manager of the Brewers consistently employs bad logic and relies so much on his own faulty observations (Gomez can hit!).

It had everything to do with his record. We had some pretty sad debates around here in 2004, since everyone knew that "good starting pitchers find ways to win". It seems most fans know better these days. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=sheetbe01&t=p&year=2004