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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    2 batter, 2 walks. Who'da thunk' it?
  2. rluzinski
    Leadoff walk. Who woulda thunk it http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/mad.gif
  3. rluzinski
    I have never felt less safe with a 1 run lead in the 8th.
  4. rluzinski
    Pull Davis for a pinch hitter = good Pull Davis for Magruder = bad. EDIT: 1 pitch. Way to go.
  5. rluzinski
    104 pitches through 7 for Davis. I bet he comes out for one more inning.
  6. rluzinski
    Gmae tied late, great pitching, pathetic hitting.... wonder how this one ends.... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
  7. rluzinski
    Magruder is batting .195 against righties this year. Shouldn't you have to bat over .200 to even PRETEND you are a switch hitter?
  8. rluzinski
    Wow, we are going to be 5 under. I didn't see that coming. That .500 goal is starting to look unattainable. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
  9. rluzinski
    how did macgruder screw that one up ? he was playing where he was told and had no chance to catch the ball According to Coshem(sp) he initially broke back. At the very least he read it very poorly off the bat, being essentially frozen for a second or two. GAME OVER.
  10. rluzinski
    1-1. Time to watch some more "manufacturing" of runs.
  11. rluzinski
    Not sure why that proves anything. Everything Bill said, plus the fact that the Red's manager guessed that Yost would do it and called a pitch out. Somtimes you can't be SO predictable as a manager. If you want Weeks to steal, let him try. He usually doesn't need help anyway.
  12. rluzinski
    Wow, Magruder sure screwed that one up. So he can't hit or field.... awsome.
  13. rluzinski
    It's fun to watch other managers proving they are smarter than Yost. Nice hit and run, Yost.
  14. rluzinski
    SHOULD be able to get 1 run against Ortiz in 5 friggin innings. Going to take more than that to win. Hardy? Please?
  15. rluzinski
    There we go, Hall!
  16. rluzinski
    Our starting 3B has a .314 OBP and a sub-.800 OPS. Yipee.
  17. rluzinski
    Darren is a tool. He's not even a Brewer fan to begin with!
  18. rluzinski
    Heh, he was safe. Ok maybe not. It was close.
  19. rluzinski
    But linear weights does exactly what you are talking about. It essentially looks at play-by-play data and figures out what every event's effecton runs scored is, based on different situations. It takes the weighted average of the effects of an event, based on the 24 base/out states (no on, 1 out, runner 1st, no out, etc...) and uses an average value of each event: LINK Comparing the relative negative value of a K and an out, you can see it varies depending on a sitation. For instance, with 2 out they are equal for obvious reasons. With a runner at third and less than 2 out, it worse to K than any other out. With a runner at 1st it's actually BETTER to K, since it's the ground out dp isn't possible then. ANYWAY, taking a weighted average of all those events based on what situations occur most often (no one on and no outs is weighted the highest, for instance) what are the values of each? A K is worth -.31 outs, every other out is worth -.299. Hardly a difference at all. In conclusion, while Branyan's K's especially hurt with runners on and less than 2 out, his K's are hardly worse in an average situation.
  20. rluzinski
    I will say that his high number of non-productive outs in run scoring position negate most (if not all) of the production you'd expect from a player with his kind of OPS. Strikeouts are never productive; that's why some of us hate watching Russell play. As has been beaten to death a million times before, while strikouts are certainly bad in some situations, overall they are barely worse at all. His do NOT nagate "most" or "all" of his production, as you would say. "Runs Created" takes into account the negative effect of K's and Russell is STILL leading the team in RC/G ro anyone with meaningful amount of AB: LINK Are his K's self defeating? Sure, but not NEARLY to the effect that most people think. Everyone thinks that, with the bases loaded, all yo have to do is put the ball in play and good things will happen. That's just not the case in reality. When looking at actual play-by-play data and seeing how different baseball events affect runs scored, a K is about 20% worse than a normal out in an average situation. Again, this is using ACTUAL game information. For people who consider situational hitting to be fundamental, watching a professional seem oblivious to this aspect of the game is aggravating. That's why he's ever the flashpoint for the 'observational' v. 'statistical' analysis types. Very well said. Unfortunetely, it seems like the times Branyan laces a 2 RBI down the line is forgotten, over the times he K's w/RISP.
  21. rluzinski
    One other thing that we differ on, I can remember all at bats. If you can remember the situation and outcome of the 4000+ plate appearances the Brewers have had this year, you are either an idiot savant or a robot. Then you have to be able to compile those 4000+ plate appearances and try to coorelate certain events with the outcome of the game. Not possible, except for maybe rainman.
  22. rluzinski
    Any avid baseball watcher should be able to discover over the course of a season whether or not a team/player they follow on a regular basis is good at advancing baserunners and such. I couldn't disagree more. My contention has always been that over the course of 162 games and thousands of AB, it's difficult to judge the relative abilities of a team with regard to ANY tool correctly. The human mind can't process than many events without being biased toward a few notable situations. We all remember Hall winning two games in a row last year. Does that make him "clutch?" Well, we'd have to look at ALL his AB, but a person's memory just can't do that. That's why we have to rely on........ STATS! Stats, if used correctly are unbiased and relaiable. We can then compare stats and see what stats lead to winning more than others. As it happens, OBP and SLG are the two single most important stats with regard to scoring runs. It's not my opinion, but rather a fact derived from statistical analysis. That's not to say there aren't other factors that determines the outcome of a game, of course there are. Over the course of a season those factors take a secondary role to OBP and SLG.
  23. rluzinski
    Last year ESPN tried to promote "productive outs" as a statistic. Guess what happened? There was actually a negative coorelation between the number of productive outs a team made and the runs they scored. The more prodiuctive outs the less runs, overall. LINK What does that tell us? Well, although a productive out is better than a normal out, it's certainly not better than just getting a hit or walking. While there's no question that situation hitting trully is a skill that wins games for you, it is most certainly overated. Give me a team with a good OBP and SLG and that team will score runs.
  24. rluzinski
    Wow. No runs. So, I can't enjoy scoring opportunities or early leads. Doesn't leave me with much.
  25. rluzinski
    No way, Magruder failed!!!!!! THIS IS PATHETIC. I can't even enjoy when the Brewers have the bases loaded and no outs. What's the point in even watching?
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