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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Warn both dugouts on a 2-1 pitch? That is SO lame. ... and here comes the bullpen!
  2. rluzinski
    I hear a really good way to start a series is to get to their bullpen in the 2nd inning of the first game http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Steal Brady! Be aggressive! Make soething happen!
  3. rluzinski
    Um, this is insane. Please don't let the Brewers lose a game where they hit 4 HRs while using only 3 outs.
  4. rluzinski
    BTW, Jenkins current OPS (.853) is actually higher than his career average (.851). He definetely shut ALOT of us up.
  5. rluzinski
    Heh, should be 4-0. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I thought someone said Jenkins was "coolin off." http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I love these kind of games.
  6. rluzinski
    There we go! Man, most of Lee's shots are COMPLETE no brainers! Should be 3-0.
  7. rluzinski
    Clark is such an IDIOT. Can we please trade this guy? I am SO sick of him. All he seems to want to do now is try and hit HRs and et caught trying to steal.
  8. rluzinski
    Actually, the Met's have a better RS/RA ratio. Also, to compare the 2005 Brewers to the 2004 Astros... well let's just say they had a LITTLE more talent http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif This year? More talent AND a 5.5 game lead. Prove me wrong, Brewers!
  9. rluzinski
    Whether we want to admit it or not (with the chance of being let down) we ARE in the wild card chase. How can we not be. We are 5.5 games back with 2 months to go with many opportunites to catch the teams ahead of us. I couldnt agree more with the criticism of people asking "please dont say wildcard" Why should we not hope for the best. I'm not being hard on the team, I'm being realistic. I look at the wildcard standings every day, just like you guys. I hold out for the smallest of hope (BP gives us a 4% chance of post season play) just like you guys. What I don't do is lose my objectivety when gauging the realistic chances for the Brewers this year. As I've said before, the fact that everyone only quotes the 5.5 games back shows that they don't understand the real issue. There are SIX teams ahead of the Brewers and 1 a half game behind. We have to beat ALL of those teams to win the wildcard. That's just about insermountable odds right there. The way the Astros are going, it will take ATLEAST 88 wins to make the wildcard. The Brewers would have to finish the season on a 36-20 tear to get that (.643 winning %), and that's being optimistic. You guys can all say that I'm wrong and you feel they have a real chance, but I bet you wouldn't bet on it. Heck, I bet you wouldn't bet on it at 10:1 odds. I sure would take those odds if they were offered. The fan side of me will continue to check those wildcard standings every day. The realist in me simply looks at this year as a stepping stone for next, where they might have a REAL shot at the playoffs.
  10. rluzinski
    I know you don't want to get into this Ralph. I understand every game is equally important when looking at wins and losses but you do have to admit that some games are more important when considering other factors. This is a big game tonight. The Brewers are 2 games under .500 and there is 2 months to go in the season. How the HECK could this be a "big game"? What factor am I missing? I beg you not to say "wild card."
  11. rluzinski
    Yippe! It's a must win! Current Brewers Record in "Must Win" Games: 52-54
  12. rluzinski
    I think those numbers could even be more devestating when looking at the pitching matchups. I believe Russ has said that his numbers do not take individual pitching matchups into consideration. Is that correct Russ? That's correct. I just use the team's pythagorean winning %, and use the log5 equation developed by Bill James to calculate the odds of winning a single game. I add a home team advantage and figure out the probabilities of the different outcomes (sweep, swept, etc...). It's really just to give you an indication of how easy or hard a particular matchup is; i certainly wouldn't place money on those numbers (OK, I'm going to Vegas this weekend and WILL put money on them, but you shouldn't), but they are useful nonetheless. To take the pitching matchups into consideration, just compare the difference between the ERA's of the 3 pitchers starting and the 2 not starting for each team. Then ask yourself, "are the 3 pitchers starting representative of the starting pitching as a whole"? (the bullpen is obviously the same) Since the Brewers have their 2 worst pitchers going and the Mets have arguably their 2 best, my odds are sadly overly optimistic.
  13. rluzinski
    Doesn't look good on paper: ____________________ Rluz's Predictions Brewers @ Mets ____________________ Brewers Sweep 9% Brewers Win 2 33% Brewers Win 1 41% Brewers Swept 17% ____________________
  14. rluzinski
    I didn't say actually having it implemented would be easy, just that the actual solution is. The fact that MLB is so resistant to change makes them pick inferior solutions (4 team/6 team divisions).
  15. rluzinski
    Its the only way the schedule works out, can't have an odd number of teams in a league. You could, um, have one interleague series always going on. You know, like what EVERY other professional league do? I don't know why that can't be considered an option. Alot better than the ridiculous solution of having one division with 4 teams and one with 6. Obviously , a team would have to be moved over... I vote St Louis! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  16. rluzinski
    rluzinski, can you do the probabilities of winning a particular game? Like tonight? 64% Of course, it's against a soft tossing lefty WITH an ERA above 5, so really about 5% http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/broom2.jpg
  17. rluzinski
    I'm an artist. And I don't need some fancy smanshy $3,000 software to make my art! Back in my day art was made with an old newspaper speckle paint!
  18. rluzinski
    Go to hell. http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/s-ringtail03b.jpg http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  19. rluzinski
    He would have to pitch 15 1/3 scoreless innings to manage it...not sure he has that in him...14 maybe, but not 15 1/3 You DO realize you've just insured us that he will pitch a complete game shutout, right? What's the record for most shutouts (shutted-out, shutouted?)in a row?
  20. rluzinski
    I've never been LESS excited fot the Crew to go against a guy with a 5.73 ERA. Where Clemens when ya need him?
  21. rluzinski
    Well, I've decided that it's time for Brian to spend a few hundred hours of his free time writing his own proprietary message board system. I'm sorry it had to come to this but ezboard is crap.
  22. rluzinski
    But the Brewers are going to the widlcard! We can't start trading people! If Melvin traded Clark, we got a good chunk for him. It's sure nice to have a competent GM.
  23. rluzinski
    I am going to laugh when Yost benches Branyan and Hardy tomm, who combined for 66% of the hits today.
  24. rluzinski
    Reuter tomorrow. When's the next time the Brewers don't face a "soft tosser"? Sat, when the hitless streak will reach.. what... 29?
  25. rluzinski
    Atleast Yost had em battlin' to the last out!
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