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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Nice Gamel!
  2. rluzinski
    So much for playing for 1 run
  3. rluzinski
    I guess RR is convinced 1 run is enough here. Hope he is right. Me? I don't get all excited about suicide squeezes. I see how they are entertaining but they really have questionable value. Of course, that's why most managers aren't obsessed with them like RR.
  4. rluzinski
    Every mainstream projection system has Greinke as better than that. And to say any minor league starting pitcher projects to be a 3.8 ERA pitcher in a couple of years is pretty bold, to say the least.
  5. rluzinski
    Izturis's 2012 ZIPS Projection: .248/.291/.306 That is just absurdly bad for any position player and a joke for a backup 3B.
  6. rluzinski
    Greinke's 2012 Zips projection is basically 200 IP @ 3.0 ERA. Assuming a free available starting pitcher puts up around a 5.3 ERA, that's 51 less earned runs that Greinke gives up. Using the rule of thumb of 10 runs = 1 win, that's 5 wins. If Melvin replaced Greinke with an average starting pitcer, we might be talking about around a 3 win drop. I have no problem paying Greinke $20-$22 mil in 2013. He's easily worth that. The problem is the whole long term contract and health. I'd give him an extension of 2/$44 or maybe 3/$66 but that's it. Otherwise, you assume a even a 10% chance of a substantial injury and he's just not worth it.
  7. rluzinski
    I think this is a pretty decent lineup for the guys RR had available. I would have expected something crazy, like Ishikawa bating 3rd.
  8. rluzinski
    Then doesn't Gomez deserve to be out at the plate since the throw beat him? If the guy's safe, he should be safe. I don't care if the ball beats him or not. Not the same, "the throw beat him" means the tag was down before the runner got there, not just the ball is in the defenders glove before the runner got there. I'd rather the ump just just go ahead and follow the rules personally.
  9. rluzinski
    We should use our best reliever in a game with 4 run leads in the 9th? One of the hardest jobs of a manager is to have the guts to not just manage for today.
  10. rluzinski
    Why have they basically abandoned Foxtrax?
  11. rluzinski
    The Cubs have a 4% chance of winning. Time to use Axford for a second consecutive night.
  12. rluzinski
    Maddon makes unconventional moves, wears glasses and has had the luxury of managing a team with a nice amount of player talent the last few years. That seems to have convinced some that he is a great manager but I'm not sure if that includes the more sabermetricly inclined fans. MGL from insidethebook blog sure isn't a fan: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/maddon_up_to_his_old_tricks_again/ And trying to correlate a manger's talent to a team's win loss record is largely a waste of time. Even when you consider player talent (which towers over manager skill in terms of correlation), you still have to deal with the luck factor. 162 games sounds like a lot but a true .500 team will find their seasonal record diverge significantly from 81-81, often. It's very hard to objectively judge the overall performance of a manager.
  13. rluzinski
    Gomez is probably the 8th best hitter in that lineup, so the suggestion that there may be no one better to bat 2nd is a hard one for me to stomach. Hell, Gallardo isn't even that much worse than him as a hitter. It's just the same, dogmatic philosophies of the old school managers. Many franchises have moved on but not the Brewers. The good news is that Gomez will play himself out of that lineup spot before June. It's just pretty unbelievable that RR has already forgotten he was embarrassed by his assessment of Gomez's offensive abilities last year. Lineup order aside, there is a lot of upside in that lineup overall. Lucroy and Gamel, I'm looking at you!
  14. rluzinski
    Gomez is probably the 8th best hitter in that lineup, so the suggestion that there may be no one better to bat 2nd is a hard one for me to stomach. Hell, Gallardo isn't even that much worse than him as a hitter. It's just the same, dogmatic philosophies of the old school managers. Many franchises have moved on but not the Brewers. The good news is that Gomez will play himself out of that lineup spot before June. It's just pretty unbelievable that RR has already forgotten he was embarrassed by his assessment of Gomez's offensive abilities last year. Lineup order aside, there is a lot of upside in that lineup overall. Lucroy and Gamel, I'm looking at you!
  15. rluzinski
    Gomez had an awesome 2011 spring training. Kind of hard not to bat him second as a result.
  16. rluzinski
    Exactly. Listen to the people who are willing to put their money where their mouth is. Everyone else is just talking.
  17. rluzinski
    I'd be happy to look like that at age 73: http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_mlb_experts__5/ept_sports_mlb_experts-455341426-1210945646.jpg?ymY3VrADSINNWhav
  18. rluzinski
    I bad defender typically does not become more valuable by playing an easier position. He will play better defense at that position but he will be less valuable for playing there. It all basically evens itself out. Now, we could argue whether he is more valuable at 3B or 1B to the Brewers in 2012 when you consider their other options... I still think he's more valuable at 3B but it's a complicated question.
  19. rluzinski
    It's not that I expect RR to figure out what players are good or bad after 30 training AB. I expect him to not be so absolutely foolish as to think he ever could have. And on top of it, he was absolutely dumbfounded when Gomez turned out to be exactly the hitter he's always been. Same old, same old.
  20. rluzinski
    I am just so sick of sports journalism in general. Pujols can express that he feels "uncomfortable" with that nickname if he wants to. NON STORY.
  21. rluzinski
    I'm still at a loss why we're so consistently disappointed that a guy who's been worth 12 WAR over 12 seasons wasn't brought back to a team that Melvin has said specifically needs to rely on their younger home grown players, and believes we have several guys who can contribute in the near future. And actually, since 1998, it's only 11.9 WAR. So still not getting the BF.NET love. He can hit it a mile and he gets red hot for 2-3 week stretches and then can't hit for 3 months. You are acting like he's been a full time player over his career. 12 WAR in 3400 AB means he's been about average. He's getting pretty old these days but at league min, he could still be a nice option off the bench for a team.
  22. rluzinski
    That really didn't seem very scathing at all. The reporter basically got 2-3 oft-repeated quotes from Cecil and made a story out of it. Same old, same old. Cecil thinks that he deserves some credit for Prince's success and somehow thinks that entitles him to having a relationship with his son. It comes across more like pouting and it's been like that for a long time.
  23. rluzinski
    I strongly disagree, but McGehee had a positive WAR last year so I'd actually take it~. He kind of lucked into that WAR with what was probably a flukey defensive performance but I'd still take it! Fine. You have your opinion, I have mine.According to Fangraphs: Hitting: -20.5Base Running: -5.3Fielding: 6.6 After adjustments, it equals +.3 WAR or almost perfectly average. Any veteran BF.neter is probably aware of the relatively large uncertainty of that fielding estimate, however. So yeh, I would be happy if Gamel had a 0 or better WAR but I probably wouldn't be happy if he played like McGehee last year, since Mcgehee's true defensive value was probably lower than estimated. And I will say it again, Gamel has 171 major league AB, so saying he has never hit in the majors is pretty close to like saying a highschool player has never hit well in the majors. All we really have to go by is what he has done in the minors and it looks pretty good. ZiPS projects him to have a .264/.341/.433 line, which sounds reasonable to me.
  24. rluzinski
    I'm not worried at all about the work ethic stuff. Also, the guy has 171 major league AB, so acting like that tells us anything is just silly. That said, there are plenty of players that have good minor league careers who never makes it, so who knows. I hope he gets a real chance with the Brewers this year to sink or swing.
  25. rluzinski
    Yeh really, anyone not happy so far with Wolf's production relative to his salary doesn't have realistic expectations regarding what money will buy in free agency.
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