rluzinski
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Everything posted by rluzinski
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How Kotsay looked yesterday has NO bearing on what to expect today. Kotsay and Hart aren't even close offensively. I will assume Hart is too sick to play as to not hurt my head anymore. Baseball fans are always sort sighted with regard to estimating player performances but I gotta say, you guys are really stepping it up for the playoffs.
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Pretty much anything you mentioned is the same whether it's the regular season or playoffs. You say less fluctuation is more important with a win or go home game but that's not true. If the odds of winning are the same, it doesn't really matter. In the end, you are trying to give your team the best chance of winning. You do that by playing your best players.
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The playoffs are magical. Only the performances over the last 8 games matter.
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Well, if you are going to get far behind, better to do it very early. And yeh, our team defense in general is pretty damn terrible. Never has been a high priority.
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I'll take it.
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Man, Gallardo not even close right now. This sucks.
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Again, Kotsay has not started since AUGUST. Start your best players and let them play!
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Wow does RR look like a flipping idiot.
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And a rasberry in his goat.
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Kotsay hasn't gotten a start in 6 weeks so let's start him now. Sheesh. Just crazy.
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So then Yo pitches starting the 3rd. Might even get to pinch hit for whomever starts. I don't really see the issue.
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It's not viable because.... why?
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Pitch selection? What? Obviously the results have been different.
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Impressions of Roenicke so far (part 3)
rluzinski replied to Bernman23's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It's not very many innings at all, that's the point. That doesn't mean that his poor play isn't a result of an injury or something else but statistically, it could very easily just be an anomaly. Your intuition may tell you otherwise but the numbers are the numbers. This is the same conversation we have whenever any player struggles over a limited period. E.G. Gallardo and Greinke earlier in the year. -
Impressions of Roenicke so far (part 3)
rluzinski replied to Bernman23's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'm not dismissing it as a possibility. I'm suggesting that we shouldn't assume he's "obviously toast" because he's had bad results his last few outings. "Marcum is either missing badly on pitches or leaving everything up in the zone. I'm not going to speculate on why, but he's been doing this for the better part of 6 weeks." Do have evidence of this or is it "obvious" based off the results? You may be 100% correct but I see some assuming going on here. Is it so wrong to ask people to back up their declarative statements? The easy part is coming up with a hypothesis. -
A lot of doom and gloom around here is based on the individual player performances of the last 7 games. I'm not completely unconcerned about Greinke and especially Marcum's struggles in the playoffs, but we are still only talking about two starts. It's been said that Marcum also struggles in September but his component stats seem fine. There just isn't much evidence that either should continue to struggle in the post season. We are looking at about 50/50 odds for this series. I'm very much looking forward to tonight's game, as the winner will have the odds tilted heavily in their favor. Anyone who wants to be pessimistic after a Brewer loss today will get no objections from me! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
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Impressions of Roenicke so far (part 3)
rluzinski replied to Bernman23's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Except the way Marcum has pitched the last 2 games (and month for that matter) no one would really second guess him for trying Narveson. I think it would be a terrible move. Take a guy who hasn't started in a long time and hasn't pitched much recently over one of your better pitchers just because the pitcher is having a bad stretch, the same kind of stretch that pitchers have at some point every single year all based on a small sample size of innings by Narveson that includes games against players that aren't even on the team anymore.Agreed. All many people seem to care about is how well players have performed in the playoffs and against specific teams. Just terrible analysis. -
It's easy enough to have Marcum start but give him a short leash and put Narveson in there if needed. I can't imagine taking Marcum completely out of the rotation, however.
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I'll take Vegas's opinion every time. That's saying the Brewers have a 48% chance of winning. And if it was so obvious that Marcum was "toast", he would have been shut down already. Im not happy with his performance so far but it could just as easily just be a momentary blip. Everything is just so obvious to people around here, until they are wrong and find something else that is obvious. And disregarding small samples while focusing on individual matchups.... My goodness. People act like the playoffs are magical.
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The notion that it is optimal strategy to always walk any hitter is just so wrong. It's not even close. In almost every situation, an intentional walk results in increasing the expected number of runs scored. Its only late in close games when you can even begin to talk about an IBB being the correct strategy. Also, I can't imagine that always pitching Pupils inside is the right call. He would simply not even bother covering the outside of the plate. Its all game theory.
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Impressions of Roenicke so far (part 3)
rluzinski replied to Bernman23's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Judging a single baseball move by it's result is generally foolish since the difference between a good and made move is often very small. -
When you put too much weight on recent performance, you are often going to be wildly optimistic or unnecessarily pessimistic. The result of this series is probably a coin flip. In terms of maximizing wins, it doesn't really matter.
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As an American, you and Fielder get to do what you want. You can't make the "wrong" choice.
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1. Marcum had a bad start. Meaningless unless it was injury related. 2. Narveson having 15 good innings against a particular team is meaningless. You play your best pitchers in the playoffs. Greinke, Gallardo and Marcum are all excellent. You want to pull Wolf for a PH after 4-5 innings, I'm fine with that.
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Does Greinke warming up keep him from starting game 1?