rluzinski
-
Posts
9,362 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Events
Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings
Milwaukee Brewers Videos
2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors
Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources
2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project
2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by rluzinski
-
It's OK for players to go by the rules only when they are getting paid league minimum and are worth far more to their team. In that scenario, you'll never hear a fan complain that a player isn't properly compensated for his production. And that player better not complain that the system is underpaying him or he'll be criticized for it. Basically, fans are not being objective. It's understandable, since the whole point of sports is to be emotionally irrational but there is no sense in trying to justify it, rationally. I think part of what's pissing some people off is that they said Hart was stupid for doing something that ultimately made him $700,000. I thought he was stupid too but he was willing to take the risk, so good for him.
-
Was the question, "When do you have the legal right to boo?" It seems some people might be confused. I expect players to give maximum effort and managers to know optimal in game strategy.
-
Fielder got ripped by the fans for complaining that the system was only paying him $400k after a great year. Now fans are angry at Hart for using the system to get an extra $700k after a bad season. I don't know what to say to that.
-
Hadn't even heard of the Watchmen until I saw the first movie preview and read this thread. I watched the movie on DVD and just finished the book. Now I'm watching the director's cut on blu-ray. I've never really been a comic book reader but I read some of my brother's stuff growing up and enjoyed them OK. The Watchmen is just so different from anything else I've read, though. I thought that I might ruin the the impact of the book by watching the first but the book is so rich with content that it was still a rewarding way of going about it. This might get me crucified but I have to admit, I think the movie's take on the endingwas a very good idea. Moore's version was just cheesy. Really though, at its core, there wasn't a huge difference, IMO. Robert, what did you think of the Black Freighter/Under the Hood? Anyone see the "Ultimate Version" with the Black Freighter intertwined? 3.5 hours!
-
Big markets, playoffs and self fulfilling prophecies.
rluzinski replied to Thurston Fluff's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
"Ultimately there has to be more parity between the big market and small market clubs, otherwise the Yankees and Red Sox of the world will keep making the World Series regardless, and hence continue getting the brunt of the media coverage. " I agree. MLB could do a better job of promoting all their teams but fans aren't stupid. At the start of any season, a third of the league probably has less than a 5% chance of making the post season. How do you promote that? -
His run value vs. sliders (wSL) was terrible as well: http://www.fangraphs.com/...layerid=1945&position=OF I'm concerned that Hart has lost all this weight to try and turn into some bunting speedster. I hope I'm wrong since I don't think he has the skill set to pull it off.
-
The only evidence you believe to be pertinant to any discussion is information that can be viewed in a stat line. No need to be so melodramatic. Evidence can take many forms. From aggregate stats to Pitch F/X, just about everything is recorded these days. We all know Hart is a freeswinger who doesn't have much plate discipline. He never has. The question is whether pitchers are exploiting that weakness better over the last two years than they did in 2007. It's quite possible that they are. But again, most projection systems aren't weighing Hart's 2007 stats very much anyway.
-
People trying to make a name for themselves on public domain websites have nothing to lose by putting out a formula that disregards non-quantifiable attributes. First of all, several of those guys work for MLB teams, so lets not pretend this is just bunch of amateurs playing around. Second of all, no one is suggesting that there isn't a lot of other information that can and should be considered beyond whatever a canned projection system does. Injuries is a huge one, for instance. But what are you considering that is non-quantifiable? You aren't adding any extra information that I see, just blind speculation. You might be right but you haven't offered up any evidence to support your theory that pitchers "have figured him out".
-
The projection line really seems to forget one basic principle of math... that averages are greatly skewed by one number that is significantly higher or lower than the rest. This is why the housing market uses median numbers rather that average numbers. One million dollar house sold skews the average price if all the other houses are $65,000. In Hart's case, one .895 OPS season skews the fact that he's been a .750 OPS guy for the past two years. Basic principle of math? People who suggest throwing data out of a sample because it's an "obvious outlier" are breaking one of the most basic rules of statistical analysis. There are situations where the median can tell you something the mean can't but I don't think this is one of them. Hart's 2007 season probably makes up only about 20% of his projection anyway, so it doesn't make much of a difference either way.
-
Tigers, Verlander agree to extension
rluzinski replied to Principessa21's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The Tigers still had Verlander for two more years and are paying him roughly what he would have gotten in arbitration. This adds so much more risk for the Tigers. It's like if the Brewers signed Verlander right now to a guaranteed contract for to a 3/$60, for 2012-2015. Not saying this is necessarily a bad signing but it sounds a lot riskier to me when I think of it on those terms. -
No, your comment about how "I doubt anyone here can say that", in regards to making Hart's salary, as if that is really relevant to the conversation. The attitude you've been showing in this whole thread isn't really too surprising given your previous posting history, though.This is hilarious. You were surprised that no one else "called me out" because you didn't read my response carefully enough and concluded that I was just taking a childish cheap shot at someone. My point was about supply and demand, not "Hart makes more money than you, so chew on that!" and that makes it indisputable fact No, it just makes it not surprising that I agree that Hart's over/under is around .785 OPS. That seems to be the consensus projection. That doesn't mean that your (or whomever's it was) .750 OPS is wrong.
-
Thanks for the info. The line for the Venezuelan league was .286/.362/.429/.790. In comparison, MLB batters averaged .262/.333/.418/.751 in the majors last year. I wonder what the batting line looks like for just minor league batters.
-
Is this where people are getting their data? http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/s...&lid=135&t=l_bat That's just the batters who qualified, so you must be going somewhere else for the whole group. The qualified batters had an aggregate line of .304/.383/.456/.838!!! I'm glad Escobar had a great 173 AB but what are we talking about here, A ball pitching? Who is Tom Evans and how did he put up an OPS over 1.000? With regard to projecting Escobar's 2010 season, this should be completely ignored, IMO.
-
It isn't just not a stretch, it's the consensus.
-
Rluz, do you honestly expect Hart to put up a .785 OPS? I think that's a reasonable expectation, yeh. It really doesn't seem like a big deal to me. An average OBP and a SLG he put up in 2008 would do it. Not a very bullish projection for a 28 year old. And besides 2007, his defense has been pretty below average. In fact, the defensive metrics backup what I have said before in this thread...that he has seriously regressed. Looking at his UZR, I think that's an understandable position. Maybe average is a stretch but I think a little below average is reasonable.
-
What is the Venezuelan Winter League compared to, AA? AAA?
-
I would argue at this time that Hart is a fringe starting RF, and probably should be a platoon player, and therefore not be paid as a starter. I can appreciate why you might think that but I don't believe that is true. For there to be average starting OFers, there has to be below average starting OFers. I see Hart as a below average starting OFer. Why? Offensively, here is Hart's CHONE projection, as well as what the fans at Fangraphs guessed: Hart 2010 Projections: CHONE: .271/.333/.456/.789 Fans: .269/.329/.40/.779 Taking the average of the two, Hart is projected to be about a .785 OPS and .342 wOBA hitter for 2010. He's also seen as an average defender. Using CHONE, I'm only finding 37 corner OFers that project to have 400+ AB and an OPS over .785. This is terribly quick and dirty but it suggests Hart is a little below average starting corner OFer. I think he's pretty far from being a platoon player.
-
I would agree that it was probably best to trade Hardy last offseason, because there wasn't a particularly good option either way. By sending Hardy down to the minors and getting that extra year, I'm not sure how much less the Brewers got than if they would have instead traded one year of good Hardy away. As underwhelming as he is, I'll take Gomez and difference between the 2015 and 2009 Escobar.
-
If the discussion is whether Hart is a full-time player, and deserves to be paid as such, his numbers should be compared to other full-time players, and the scrubs' numbers should be left out. You think the average, non-pre arby starting major leaguer makes less than $5 mil a year? What you need to do is make a projection for Hart and estimate what a free agent would make with those numbers. Then you take something like 60% of that (to adjust for him being in his second year arby) and that's what Hart is "worth". Roughly speaking, he projects to be about average defensively and offensively for a corner OFer. And yes, when we say average, we are not referring to the average of the players that accumulated more than a certain number of PA. In terms of what he's worth, it really doesn't matter what baseline you use, though.
-
Being called out for what? Realizing that a broom sweeper is lworth ess than an engineer and an engineer is worth less than a doctor? Do you referring to something else? And if his production was replaceable for significantly less, the Brewers wouldn't have even offered him arbitration. They don't have to pay him a penny this year if they don't think he's worth whatever he'll get awarded in arbitration. And AGAIN, his raise shouldn't be proportional to his relative production the last 2 years. A player in his arbitration years typically get's a 20% bump in salary each year for the same projected performance . It sounds like your beef should be with the system but you want to ignore that variable for some reason. Hart deserves as much as he can get. The Brewers deserve to pay as little as they can for his services. If Hart is overestimating his worth (and it appears that he is), I have no emotional response to that. He rolled the dice and he has a good chance of losing. As a fan, I don't feel wronged.
-
I don't understand this. If I were given the choice between a 100% chance of $45,000,000 or a 95% chance of $80,000,000, I would without a doubt take the $45,000,000. Perhaps Braun was smart enough to realize that once you get to a certain level of wealth, additional wealth does yield significant increases in quality of life.I agree. Furthermore, each person will have a difference, dollars-happiness curve, so how can another person judge what was right or wrong? It works both ways. One guy might feel he needs $10 mil, another might want $100 mil. Hey, whatever. This is America, right?
-
If I had said something along the lines that prompted you to post, I might have implicitly meant that Attanasio wouldn't sign Prince to a deal that isn't good for the franchise, therefore if Prince signs, it would really be great. If you relied on that kind of assumption, doesn't the statement essentially reduce down to, "Provided that you assume it's good, it will be good"? If that's all he meant, I am forced to agree and apologize for the misunderstanding. I took his statement to imply that whatever Prince ends up being signed for (by any team), he will be more than worth it. If that really is what he meant, I couldn't disagree more. If Prince is worth $20-$25 million per year to another team, it's hard to see how he's not also worth that to the Brewers. I don't think that's true at all. It all comes down to how well a franchise can leverage the wins that Prince's projected performance represents, into revenue. Prince's projected performance is worth one thing to the Red Sox, another to the Royals and still another to the Yomiuri Giants. If Prince makes a crappy team win 70 games instead of 65, that is not worth the same as making a team win 90 games and making the playoffs. I would bet on Prince earning his salary over the next 8-10 years. I've seen too many free agents overvalued to make that kind of assumption.
-
He said that it would be the best thing to happen to the Brewers' organization in a long time if they can sign Prince. How can he make that determination when he doesn't know what it would cost to sign him? How is that fundamentally different than my example of deciding that someone should buy a house without knowing its price?
-
Everytime I hear a sports fan say something like, this is what it sounds like to me: "Man, that's a great house. Just awsome. You should buy it! You'd be stupid not to." "Sure it's nice but how much is it?" "Dunno..... I'm sure it's a lot. But whatever you have to pay for it, it will be worth it." Tell me what the difference is.
-
Those projections just seem wrong to me. They're going to go from one of the best teams in RS to one of the worst in a single season? The Brewers scored 785 runs last year and BP has them projected to score 766 runs this year. 19 run drop. One less run every 8 games. .1 less runs a game. That sounds completely reasonable to me.