TheCrew07

2014 NHSI Prospect Notebook: Day 1

That would be par for the course, once a character starts to grow on me they get knocked off...

I'll go back to the argument I made when trying to sell people on moving Hardy for pitching. Any core player who is locked up early and performs becomes more valuable because his wins are being bought at a discounted rate. The longer the player is signed, the greater value he has. As such, the idea should be to sign as many of those contracts as possible with that kind of player. As Monty and I have pointed out repeatedly and TLB notes in the opening post, if the player won't sign, then he has to treated be differently from an organizational perspective. When you have multiple players at a single position, both with legitimate talent and longevity of service, the team has the ability to make decisions based on more on than just contract length(service time) and cost. 1 of those 2 players can be moved for a position of greater need, such as pitching. If you think the MLB player will ultimately be better you can try a prospect for prospect deal, if you think the prospect has more upside you can move the MLB player (whom almost always will have the greater trade value) for multiple potential impact pieces or 1 player *that* good. The goal should be flexibility of talent not payroll flexibility. Talent is the true currency, and pitching talent is like gold where as positional talent is like silver. Always be looking to trade up in value... There shouldn't be anything such as a team friendly deal "blocking" a player, especially one who didn't hit all that well in A ball. I'm high on Arcia, but Arcia's progress as a prospect should have nothing do with how the team handles Segura. Either Jean wants the security or the bigger pay day, he gets the choice, whatever he chooses is fine. However, the team has to adjust accordingly and look to maximize their return from his service. If the Brewers are below .500 what does holding onto Segura matter if he can moved for a position of greater need? I will always take a prospect over a draft pick, and I'll certainly take multiple impact prospects over a single comp pick. If Jean signs then he becomes part of the long-term core of the team, if not then the Brewers have to correctly assess where they are a franchise when the trade proposals come in. You certainly wouldn't give him away, but if he's going to walk anyway and the deal is good enough, why not pull the trigger? The ideal time would likely be in that 2nd to last arbitration year, but the Brewer MO is to wait until that last year before FA and make a decision at the trade deadline. That to me is arbitrary, I'm looking to maximize the possible return, so I'm more concerned with the players' maximum trade value, rather than impending free agency. edit. reread this post and correct a repetitive mistake, "contract length and service time" was supposed to be "service time & cost" when I was originally writing the paragraph.

This is how an injury lingers all season, or becomes another more serious injury. Baseball does not lend itself to playing hurt, there's just too much extreme (end range) twisting and torquing involved. Every athlete wants to compete, or at least we hope they do, so they need to be protected from themselves from time to time and sat down whether they like it or not.

I'd put Fiers in the bullpen to give Hellweg as much time on the mound as possible. I have a hard believing the crew would go with a 6 man rotation in AAA without doing it in A first (as some teams are now). This situation probably figured in with Thornburg's status as well.

Wait... so a young fringy 3/4 who could play a significant part in the Brewers' present and future has to earn his spot but a fringy 3/4 who has proven he can't stay healthy, is 30 years old, and only has 2 years of team control remaining deserves that spot more? How can we arbitrarily make the assumption that Estrada will out pitch Thornburg this year? There are many posters on this forum very educated on our minor league system and what the ceiling of those particular players are. I like projections, though I admittedly despise them when they applied to prospects because trying to project what young players will do is an exercise in futility. They may start slow and finish incredibly strong that first year, they may hit the ground running, they may struggle for an entire season, or they might have career arc like Homer Bailey... we just don't know. Sticking with a talented pitcher like Bailey, what did the Reds really lose by letting him be their 5th starter all those years? I would much rather have our last 2 rotation spots go to talented younger pitchers working their way into the big leagues than someone who's on their way out or nearing the end of team control. AAA isn't some magic proving ground, it's not as if spending multiple seasons at that level makes a player any more prepared to instantly succeed in MLB, eventually every player has to be given a long enough leash in MLB to succeed or fail with the biggest jump in talent. That's why you end up with so many "AAAA players", because if they don't right the ship in a couple of months they go back down, which makes them press harder the next time they get a MLB opportunity, and eventually it just continues on that way. The last thing you want you any player to be doing is worrying about failing because it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy... we tend to get exactly what we expect. I spent my youth riding around in a farm truck listening to sports psychology tape sets, I don't expect people to really understand if they haven't put the time in, but I firmly believe that the "problem" with young players is simply that the vast majority of organizations don't truly understand what it takes to develop talent and get the best out of people. If you force an athlete to think of nothing but "not failing", then failing is exactly what they are going to do.* Furthermore the only kind of prospect that should be given the opportunity to compete is a potential ace? We've had 2 of those prospects in the last 25 years... So this parade of 2nd and 3rd tier FA pitchers is the best route available to us? Finally how exactly does a young pitcher earn their spot if they don't get a chance? What you're really talking about here is insurance, you want all of the VETERAN pitchers in front of the prospect to fail in some manner so there is no other option. I'm not sure Thornburg is a starting pitcher, I still hold out hope, but what more could he have done at the end of last season to prove he belongs? LET THEM PLAY! (it shouldn't be tough to figure out who DM/MA, RR, and Thornburg are) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXhFcKCcozE * My father is a hall of fame coach in WI but we also owned a horse stable, so in addition to sports we spent much of our time doing farm work, and we also had a 35 minute commute to school everyday. I have yet to see anyone work as hard at improving themselves and others as my father, I am truly blessed to have him. Wherever the truck was: school, practice, any of the barns or farms, those tape sets were there playing the background. He owned everything done by the following gentlemen up to the point he finally retired from coaching last year. Dr. Wayne Dyer Tony Robbins Zig Ziglar There was also a class geared towards high school athletes which my father taught after school called "The Making of a Champion". A quick google search didn't turn up any current literature or a website which was disappointing, though the Seahawks put out of a video of the same name. I learned visualization (which I still utilize) from that class, perhaps it ended up being rebranded over the years? There were other tape sets, I remember one by Don Schula and though I hated the Dolphins growing up, his run of success and ability to adapt to changing players and an evolving game over the length of his coaching career had earned my respect. There just aren't many coaches in any sport who are willing to continually adapt what they do and keep pushing forward. The point here is that many people disregard the psychological aspect of sports because it's nearly impossible to measure, however I'm firm believer in "mind over matter". They want to believe in luck and random chance, not in sports, but in life as well. I don't believe in luck, I never have, why are good teams "lucky" and bad teams "unlucky"? I believe what's going on in a player's head is far more important than his or her physical ability. There is a baseline of athleticism you'll need to be successful at each level of sports, but just about anyone who wants it bad enough can be a key contributor through high school sports. I've witnessed many players I thought wouldn't make it as freshman become all conference players by the time they were seniors though effort in the weight room and sheer force of will. The mind is a magnificent tool.

I'm not sure Santana has to do with this situation other than he's the absolute best case for stashing a rule 5 pick in the bullpen for a season? He was rule 5 pick like Wang so it wouldn't have made sense to put him into the rotation, it's apples and oranges. Thornburg has already gotten his feet wet and doesn't need his innings limited like Gallardo when he first came up. Young pitchers need to be given an extended shot to start and I grow weary of DM and RR making it sound like they did Peralta such a big favor by letting him pitch until mid summer when he started to turn the corner. How is making an instant splash the most reasonable expectation for any young player? Ride them out for a season, give them room to grow (meaning don't continually bench or demote them at the first sign of trouble), and see where they are at the end of the season. I don't understand this notion that you can't tolerate having struggling rookies on a playoff team, that somehow underperforming young players only have a place on rebuilding teams. What's the difference performance wise from your typical crappy veteran 5th starter and rookie putting up those same stats? At least the young player has the opportunity to improve. Estrada, always has been and remains a very replaceable pitcher. He's just good enough with a high K rate for people make the standard FIP arguments in his favor but he's also just bad enough that he's always going to give up more runs than people think he should. When adding in his consistent health issues and age I end up being pretty indifferent, I don't care if he's in the rotation or not. That being said, he's also not someone I'm going to work to find a rotation slot for. As such he's fine if you don't have any other options but when you do have a more talented pitcher waiting he should be first the starter sent to the bullpen where maybe he can last a full season.

The awesomeness of this cannot be overstated... Bulls have the jerseys you are looking for

College Draft Prospects Stat Roundup: Week 6 Three Strikes: Week Six

I've said many times that I like Jason, I just sure hope he's more nimble than I gave him credit for. Brad also had a picture of Cooper playing 3rd and Erickson mentioned in 1 of Mehring's articles or blog posts that he'd swing between the 2 positions as well. They've now tried every 1B in the organization at 3B, I had originally thought Hawn was the exception but I see he has 2 career games at the position, which suggests it was necessity but still... So does this mean that Rogers is now the de facto heir apparent to Ramirez? I figured 1B would ultimately come down to Morris or Rogers, maybe the Brewers think of more of Morris than BF.net has given them credit for. It's too bad Halton doesn't have much power for a 1B, his platoon split is negligible over the last 3 seasons. He'd be a real interesting guy with 10 more HRs per season on his line. As it stands he's like a poor man's right handed version Overbay, as even Lyle broke 20 HRs twice in his career.

I didn't imply or infer that the shoulder has anything to do with the knee, nor in fact did I mention compensation injuries in general, which are very common in athletes who don't get rehabbed properly. The common thread in this case is age, I forget where I read it, it might have fact been a presentation at a coaching clinic (admittedly geared towards football), but normally a significant injury to a major joint to an older player marks the beginning of the end, for many reasons I won't get into here. They may be productive in spurts, but they will likely never be the same player again. Of course there are exceptions to every rule, but the fallacy here is to assume because a player was healthy last year he'll be healthy this year. I'm glad you're such a charitable dude even though you are apparently missing the larger point. Ramirez signed a 3 year contract with a 4th option year, given the historical injury rate it was a virtual certainty that at his age over his contract length he would land on the DL at least once, the only question was really the severity of the injury. Hence the reason why there is a segment of posters here that don't like any kind of long-term contract to any aging player, more often than not there is going to be dead money in the contract due to injury, never mind age based productivity regression. You can look around baseball but the Brewers have a recent history with these kind of players; Wolf, Marcum, Riske, Ramirez... In this particular instance we're talking about someone who's 36 years old now, we aren't talking about a 18% chance of a random significant injury anymore, we're talking about a player who's wearing down and has now experienced significant shoulder and knee issues. Will his knee issue become a compensation injury where the other knee starts to fall apart as well? I have no idea, but I know the odds of Ramirez ending up on the DL are high enough that I'd take odds and still feel comfortable about winning the bet, I don't think it's close to 50/50, rather more like 70/30. Of course there is a chance he stays completely healthy like he did 2012 and puts up a monster year, I just don't believe that's the most likely scenario, and I certainly wouldn't be planning around that eventuality. For 2014 the possibility of Ramirez on the DL with Reynolds being a butcher at 3rd while Overbay plays 1st full time scares me. For a short 15 day stint not so much, but for any extended period of time that's going to be tough for the team to swallow. I'd be ecstatic if he gave the Brewers 130-140 games and a .850ish OPS but I'd park the over/under somewhere around 120 games, any more than that and the Brewers have come out ahead in my opinion.

A WI product is profiled here... A Day In The Life: Jeren Kendall (VIDEO)

Game Report: Jacob Bukauskas

This was an interesting Q&A. Readers on the minor league forum I'm sure know that I have no problem harping on the lack of athletic development which has historically occurred in baseball. The lack of physical development/training regimens continues to get under my skin. Being a powerful athlete comes from flexibility and strength, yet baseball has clung to natural maturation and a "trial by fire" approach to development. I still get pissed when I read that players are too tall for SS, 3B, or 2B... it's garbage. What truly matters is flexibility through the core, as if NBA players and NFL WRs, generally regarded as the best athletes in sports, couldn't play those positions just because they are tall? Sometimes the same things that make baseball so endearing like its long history are also the most frustrating... most people in the game are only going to support what they know, because that's what they were taught and worked for them. At any rate part 1 is more about the players he is working/worked with and part 2 gets into the theory (which is my cup of tea). Draft Q&A: Eric Cressey, Part I Draft Q&A: Eric Cressey, Part II

Daniels wouldn't give up his top prospects for Greinke, there is no way he's giving up anything of value for Weeks. Profar’s Injury Could Open Door For Odor

Buried in this story are updates on Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow of the Pirates. Buxton's MRI reveals no structural damage

Good for Jake, he ended up in a pretty good situation if he sticks, TB is always in the hunt. Rays' Odorizzi to join starting rotation

Cubs' Baez cut, headed for Triple-A Iowa

He hurt his shoulder in 2009 as 31 year old, and while past durability is better than a history of frailty, being durable in the past is not any kind of predictor of future health, it doesn't work that way. Since hurting his shoulder he's played 2 full seasons out of 5 and he's now 36 years old. I don't want to rehash the whole injury nexus thing but the gist of historical injury predictions across baseball is that once you pass the early 30s the curve starts to become exponential. Until that point every player has a 10-18% percent chance of getting injured per season but the odds become much greater with each successive season through the mid to late 30s and are additionally higher if the player has had a significant injury in his past. When talking about realistic health expectations age and injury history over the player's last hand full of seasons are more important than the overall arc of the player's career. It doesn't matter if you're talking Ramirez, Marcum, or Braun... it's all the same issue. That's why so many people look at Braun's tendency to have nagging injuries all season and project him to miss significant time later in his career. I remember someone suggesting he'd likely miss a total of 2 full seasons over the life his contract which I felt was probably pretty accurate given a 13 year run (before the option), and with his suspension it seems likely he'll exceed that number now. Another player often discussed before the Segura acquisition was Furcal, people wanted to acquire him to fill the organizational SS void. Similar to Ramirez when you're looking to sign that kind of player with a recent significant injury history approaching their mid 30s you not only need a plan A, but you're also going to need a plan B to play that position for a significant number of games. Since that discussion Furcal managed 87 games in 2011, 121 games in 2012, no MLB games in 2013, and is now injured again and may not be ready for the Marlins at 2B for opening day, he's the same age as Ramirez and like Aramis was very durable until a significant injury in 2008. I don't mean to suggest that just because 1 guy got hurt another will experience the same fate, but I am suggesting that there needs to be a realistic expectation that the 30 somethings on the roster are likely going to have at least 1 DL trip. Especially the players in their mid to late 30s, the odds just aren't in their favor, even without a significant injury in their past. When building the roster I'm not sure you can ever just assume good health for everyday position players, but you certainly aren't able to do that for players approaching their mid 30s. Players that old are ancient by professional sport standards even though they are still young in relation to many of us. If you have that kind of guy, like a Ramirez, you need a viable plan B, some one you're thinking should be able to hold down the fort for 40+ games if necessary. Ideally that player would be a prospect in AAA or AA given Ramirez age and contract status, however that's not an option in this case, or really for any position beyond the OF when discussing the Brewers' farm system. If Reynolds and/or Francisco are your plan B then basically you're counting on Ramirez to be fortunate and play 140+ games. If not, then not only is 1B worse, but 3B becomes a black hole as well, 2 positions end up being degraded instead of 1. edit. Forgot to mention that when your depth at a position is another 37 year old without one skill to hang his hat on, the dominoes have the potential to fall quickly, basically the only way this season works out at the corner IF positions is if Ramirez stays healthy. Otherwise those positions have been setup to fail.

Coulter always has thrown out baserunners even though he wasn't all that fundamentally sound, his arm is very good, 60-70, he can bring it, he's got a cannon. His problem was that he just flat whiffed pitches, as in he'd just not catch the ball, and I'm not talking about balls in the dirt. Though he was horrible at blocking those last season as well... but it was like he'd take his eye off the pitch for whatever reason and miss the ball, like a receiver who starts looking for the DB before the ball arrives. The bottom line for him was that too many balls got through him every game, some of those will be charged as WPs, but MLB catchers will at least knock those pitches down and save extra bases if runners are on. Erickson was adamant last year that no player came as far between instructs and spring training as Coulter did. By all accounts the young man has a fantastic work ethic, I would expect him to be better this season, but if he's not at least league average for A ball it's probably time to move on. He had such a steep hill to climb defensively (I had never seen a professional C whiff pitches like that) I'm just not holding out much hope that he's a true MLB C. I'm still very intrigued by his bat and as such I don't care where he ultimately ends up playing. Obviously C would be the most valuable, but we need an impact projectable bat in full season ball at both IF corners and his arm would easily play in RF as well. I guess to put this as simply as I can I'm not anywhere near as concerned with his defensive position as I am him with breaking out at the plate.

Yes, Antone Williamson a 1st round (4th pick) in 1994 and Chad Green 1st round (8th pick) in 1996. Neither made it to the majors and were higher picks than Arnett was. Arnett never made it out of A ball, regardless of where of a player was drafted, that has to be the single biggest bust 1st round bust. I mean seriously he didn't even make it to AA in his Brewer affiliation, every other bust at least made it that far or flopped in Milwaukee. I thought that was good pick on draft day... *sigh* I was desperate for pitching and wanted to believe in Arnett and Heckathorn so badly. As bad as the top of that draft has flopped, if Davis can be an everyday starter the draft as whole starts to look much better. Garfield was delayed by injuries and his horrible July really pulled down his 2013 season line, but he looks to be in that 40 range for a hitter as a C, which isn't awful, he could still prove valuable. D'Vo is back and this will be his make or break season in AA. Prince, Fiers, Burgos, Gennett, & Halton all made the big leagues for the Brewers... Burgos, Fiers, and Gennett could find regular roles for a team if not the Brewers. Of course last but not least Caleb Theilbar who the Brewers let get away and posted 1.76 ERA in 46 innings for the Twins last year. 2009 was a pretty solid draft after the first 4 picks, too bad all those picks came before the 3rd round. After Walla and Frederickson I never wanted to hear about how a player performed at their pre-draft workout again. Walla only has 15 HR in 1364 PAs and Frederickson never came close to the mid 90s when I saw him on the mound, not to mention he couldn't throw a strike. This part of Walla's draft scouting report still haunts me: Even if that were completely true the power sure didn't translate to professional ball in any way.

Cubs' Baez exits game early with injury

Reds' Hamilton makes leadoff spot his own

I think the answer to that is obvious, you still have to fill out 6 MiLB rosters stateside each summer. It's not like Michael Marseco had any kind of legitimate future as an MLB SS, but they did need someone to play SS for WI. I honestly don't have a problem with college roster filler types at all, every once in a while those guys will vastly exceed expectations. Arms or position players, there going to be a ton of picks later in the draft about filling positional needs more so than potential MLB futures. I'm not thrilled about drafting a slew of college relievers in the top 10 rounds, I think that theory stinks, as I want to continually sprinkle upside throughout the draft. I don't have a problem with a Tyler Wagner who has a legitimate chance to start and work his way up to a #3, I think those are wonderful picks. I'm talking more the guys who don't have a plus secondary pitch at all and most reasonable talent evaluators will peg (and rightly so) as low ceiling bullpen types. I just don't hold the Brewers amateur scouting dept in all that high of regard, I do however think their pro-player scouting is above average. It's too bad because if I was going to pick one or other, I'd rather the amateur scouting be above average to keep filling the organization with legitimately talented prospects. The more I follow the minors the less I'm interested in the organizational spin regarding their own prospects. That's a big reason I rarely link any of TH's articles posted on the BA, he doesn't even cover the minors or answer chat questions as well as the other beat writers whom BA leans on to fill content. He says he knows and follows the minor leagues but he clearly doesn't, or perhaps literally has no idea how to independently judge talent because the things he says I've already read or heard from Ash, Melvin, or some other organizational source some place in a different interview. It's really not all that hard to cypher out the organizational spin if you pay attention, but yet he posts like he's Jim Callis... it just rubs me the wrong way. Unfortunately the Brewers' opinion on their own players... well it really doesn't mean to squat to me in most cases because from a developmental side the organization doesn't do anything particularly well and are behind the curve in many cases. They can say they see a college guy like Magnifico as a MLB starter, but what real credibility do they have? When have they ever taken a big arm, developed control, and developed 2 at least league average pitchers for that pitcher? It hasn't happened... EVER! These guys whom are college relievers and become good MLB starters like Cingrani, they don't fit that profile at all. They already have decent enough command and a plus secondary offering to start with, and most everyone keeps trying to put them back in the reliever bucket but they are so dominant they force their way into the rotation. Or take a starting pitcher like Wacha who is another RHP moving against the tide with just 2 pitches, but both those pitches are 70-80 on the scouting scale. I talked about that 2 pitch thing quite a bit with Sheets, it's not how many pitches you throw it's how good the pitches you throw are. I just don't believe in developing stuff, I think that's something either you have an innate feel for or you don't. Wow did I get off on a tangent, sorry.

Giacalone has very little power as a 1B, that move made total sense, he didn't have much of a future. A likeable kid, but you really can't play a corner position without power. Michael Reed is going to eventually wind up in the same boat, there's quite a bit to like about him as well but he's not a CF and he doesn't have the power to player a corner OF position. He could be an awesome utility guy, but he won't be an everyday player unless he finds a power stroke from someplace.