TheCrew07

I just reread that post and saw that I made a glaring mistake, Jungmann never pitched as a senior, he was drafted as a junior. Spending so much time around HS athletics over the years I've just gotten used to referring to a player's last year as his senior season, my bad. I knew better, it's not the first time that's burned me, and most likely won't be the last.

If Jason Rogers sees significant playing time in LF I will be pissed, he's not athletic enough to be anything more than a spot starter. Why put him in a position to be a defensive liability simply because we can't manage the 40 man roster effectively? I wouldn't mind Rogers repeating AA at 1B because of the logjam in front of him. Let Ramirez and Rogers DH/1B in Huntsville. Cody Hawn is going to be 25 years old and hasn't put up an OPS over .700 in 2 seasons, let Cooper play 1B in BC and have Hawn stick around as depth for a 3rd season in BC or release him. There is no reason to have 3 1B only types on any minor league roster, and yes I'm aware that Halton and Rogers have experience at other positions, but it doesn't mean they could play competently in MLB at those positions.

You give him more money upfront to save significantly on the backend of the deal... you aren't looking to save relative pennies on the front side of the contract. It allows players to make more money right away, sometimes double what they'd make in those first 3-4 seasons but saves the organization millions through last couple years of arbitration and first couple of FA (if done properly). The idea shouldn't be to come in at say $400k less than a player would make in that arbitration year, especially that first arby year, it's not an across the board deduction. The idea should be to save 20-40% off each expensive year on the backside of the contract so the total contract is a win for the organization and for the player. The organization saves a ton of $ through the player's prime and the player gets more money upfront for producing as an inexperienced player. Not that league minimum isn't a hell of a salary relative to most of our standards, but I hope you get what I mean.

I never thought Jungmann's command was all that great for a pro, if you look back pre-draft I was and have remained very consistent in my take that he was solid but unspectacular. He threw strikes, but not necessarily "good" strikes, just because a pitch was strike doesn't necessarily mean it was in a good location. He also featured a so-so curve as his primary secondary offering that college hitters had a problem hitting fair, but not a problem getting a piece of, so Taylor had a nice strike percentage which basically unnecessarily inflated his pitch count. I would have much rather those hitters swung through the pitch and sat back down. I'm a big out pitch guy, and if I don't see an out pitch with good professional command, I have a hard time getting excited just because a guy might throw hard, like Magnifico for example (who tired really fast when I saw him start BTW). I tend to be much more excited about a guy like Viramontes who is just filthy, but lacks consistent command as a bullpen option, rather than a guy who's currently starting but doesn't have any "wow" factor to him. He's either a back end starter (which we have plenty of), or a middle relief candidate (which we also have plenty of). I tend to only care about of top of the rotation and backend bullpen types, the pitchers that can save the Brewers incredible amounts of coin if they can be developed in house, those are the kind of guys who get me excited. Jungmann was around the plate, had a track record of success, and he got some fairly generous corners by the time he was a senior, but again he was just solid, not spectacular in any particular way. I would roughly compare the strike zone in rookie ball to the college zone, and the zone basically continues to tighten up a little bit at each level. AA umpires, just like players, are already the best of the best, of the best.... these are guys with major league aspirations, if you watch a AA game and then a T-Rats game for example you are going to see a different strike zone. Every umpire obviously has his own quirks, but the AA strike zone roughly approximates the MLB strike zone, while there just isn't that same level of consistency in A ball for example. Most pitchers are going to have to adjust somewhat with each level, at AA a guy is going to need to throw quality strikes or he's going to get hammered, and hitters don't swing at anywhere near as much garbage out of the zone. In AA quality of stuff quickly becomes as important as location. It shouldn't be a surprise if our guys struggle a bit at first, we should just be looking for quick improvements/adjustments being made. Which is why I'm not big on pushing pitchers all that fast... let them get to the point where they will be successful at the next level before bumping them. It's not so much about dominating the current level of play as it is progressing/growing as a pitcher. Some guys will be *that* good, they would move incredibly fast regardless of the organization, but we really haven't had one of those guys from HS, Gallardo was as close as we got.

Rays and Pirates

Prior to the 2011 there was a thread asking for our breakout prospects, I picked Tyler Cravy then, and I'm still intrigued by him now. With a solid AA season I'll be looking for him to be a decent bullpen contributor down the road. I posted about Kevin James in the transaction thread, I'm still excited about him mostly because he's a lefty... starter or reliever I don't care, I hope to see him in WI. Tucker Neuhaus wasn't fantastic in his debut, but he's our best hope for legitimate 3B prospect unless Coulter gets moved there. Speaking of Clint Coulter, I'd like to see him moved to a different position so he can mostly concentrate on hitting the ball. I don't see much high upside pitching in the system, so this is a huge year for the organization and Devin Williams. It would be nice to move from square 0 to at least square 1 on the impact pitching front. My gut tells me that Mitch Hanigercould roughly approximate Corey Hart's production minus the steals. He's not really all that sexy in any particular way, but solid all the way around. He's not Logan Schafer in CF, but he'd be passable for a time if there weren't better options. He could also play RF which in theory could allow Braun to move to 1B if he was willing for the twilight of his Brewer career. The organization has a handful of plus power guys floating around (Morris, Haniger, Rogers) but it would be nice if Victor Roache or David Denson took off as prospects and gave us a prospect with plus plus power potential, guys that could hit 30+ HRs. I don't think either one will have a great hit tool, but they have unique power potential. Finally, Tyrone Taylor has to be consistent all season and establish himself as a top tier CF prospect.

Everyone didn't miss on LaPorta, BA just tends to go with the consensus opinion... most people thought he'd hit "enough" to be an everyday MLB player. Who knows, maybe he might one day, but it's not looking good.

My thoughts on the actual signing (not the theory of signing potential impact international players) align almost exactly with And That's last couple of posts. I'll believe it when I see it because as right now it would extremely out of character for the Brewers, hopefully though the organization is turning a corner on this issue and is willing to get more aggressive about acquiring impact talent wherever they can get it. Also, I believe they can sign as many as 6 players to bonuses <=$50k outside of the pool so I wouldn't expect them to bring in fewer players, just maybe more under the radar types with that kind of signing (if true).

Good for him, he always came across as a likeable young man during his time as a Brewer farmhand.

Considering that Nelson is the only Brewer to show up on any top 100 list so far, this quote from the forward of the fangraphs list is extremely discouraging:

Personally I'd rather have Schafer than Gindl and I think there is room for him to grow offensively, I don't necessarily believe he's a .211 hitter or a .600ish OPS kind of guy because of what he did last year. I think he's more of a .260-.280 hitter and .680-700ish OPS type at his best. Throwing out his best minor league season in Helena he was about a .770 OPS guy in the minors so I could see him falling off to a .700ish OPS, but last year's performance seems to me like his extreme floor as a player.

I'd rather take a shot with a high upside youngster who might give 7-9 years of a productive MLB service time vs the same money spent on any FA reliever. No single reliever is going to be the difference for the Brewers, but hitting on a high upside prospect every other year could be the difference.

Maybe at 38 years old I can get a tryout to play 3B for the organization as well? I could fill that gritty veteran minor league role! My goodness, they've now tried every 1B in the organization at a different position, most at the hot corner... talk about square peg/round hole. I realize there is no harm in trying but how many of those guys are legitimate every day big leaguers? Then how many could actually play scratch defense at 3B? We have a huge organizational need at 3B, I understand that, but converting 1B to fill that void seems like an incredibly small step up from nothing... if a guy doesn't have a chance to produce at a net average level (offense & defense) does filling hole that with any live body really solve anything? Or put another way, why would the Brewers waste time developing players who don't have a realistic shot to be at least 2 WAR at that position? Is it even a good idea to have that kind of guy as a bench player? I'd rather have bench IFs with a questionable bat rather than a questionable glove, but I guess that's all subjective. I guess my entire problem stems from my initial reaction which was why would they continue to try 1B at 3B when they have a potential impact bat in Coulter at C who's easily athletic enough to give the switch a try and likely profiles better there than C? Sure he's far away from the big leagues, but not that far if his bat takes off and the 3B situation hasn't changed since Gamel moved to 1B. Unless they traded Ramirez or someone else for a young 3B prospect the position was going to need to be filled from outside the organization on a temporary basis and through the draft on a permanent basis. I wish we had a heavy bat at SS who is questionable there defensively like Baez but we don't, so why not move more nimble athletes that way rather than just 1B because we have logjam of so-so players all the way up and down the system? Honestly I'd rather just see if one of those 1B can break out at that position first (in MLB) than hope that you can convert one of those guys into a legitimate 3B as well.

I have 2 separate thoughts on this on this and similar posts. 1) K-Rod, he's a first class freaking douche and character should always matter, maybe that speaks to a larger issue with our society in general that so many people won't care who or what a guy is as long as he offers the perception of helping them in some way... in this case the "we're a better a team with him" mentality. In addition to his abusive past his mechanics also stink so he's prone to extended bouts of leaving the ball up where he gets shelled. As TLB noted, we have no idea which K-Rod is going to show up this season, he could be a disaster regardless of the price. 2) Just because a contract may not be as bad as a previously horrible FA contract handed out by the organization, that doesn't make the current contract being discussed a good deal, or money well spent. I always have and will always struggle with the reverse justification of "well it was better than player X's contract"... doesn't matter if people are talking about Hammonds, Suppan, Hall, Gagne, whomever. While that idea may be true on paper, spending money poorly is still detrimental to the organization, there is really no excusing away dead money. The organization literally has a ton of good relief and back of the rotation options between AAA and AA, we didn't need K-Rod on a 1 year deal to solidify anything. This is like having 4 1st basemen on the 40 man roster, with 2 more veterans on ST invites, or bringing in more 3-5 starting pitching types, it just doesn't make much sense as those moves do nothing to push the organization forward. These strategies continue to be incredibly micro in nature, where they only way they really make sense is if you narrow the focus to needing "Y number of established veterans for the 2014 MLB club". It's entirely possible that a youngster like Goforth would have outperformed K-Rod if given the chance. Now that he's signed I don't really have a choice other than to hope he pitches well, but that doesn't mean I have to like the deal or the idea of bringing him back in general.

Wow, I was so pissed when the Brewers took Pokorny with James still on the board, I was following him in the Rays organization but he just kind of disappeared and I assumed it was injury related, I could never find any information on what happened or why. I'll be extremely interested to read more about this young man, and I wonder where his velocity is now? Kevin was drawing comparisons to Chad James predraft in 2009 at a PG event, but Chad has been an extreme disappointment for the Marlins as well, though in his defense he was rushed some early on. However his recent problems are all of his own making. Here's his scouting report from the draft: Just for comparison's sake, here's Chad's scouting report from the same draft when he was the 18th overall selection:

I have nothing to add other than that was an excellent point.

The Pirates could get a huge boost from Polanco and Taillon in June... but then again both prospects could fall flat. Polanco played winter ball for some reason so he may wear down, but if he starts the year hot in AAA he'll be up. Polanco hadn't gotten much run until he broke out it 2012 so he may be a bit under the radar for folks that primarily follow the major leagues, here's what BA had to say about him this winter: Basically he's a more athletic and defensively proficient version of Corey Hart at the same point in their careers, but like most prospects the question is will he hit enough? He was originally a pitcher growing up, but the Pirates thought he'd make a good OF, so his hitting has always been behind the rest of his game as he was so raw. As far as the projections go, they also have Garza pitching 193 innings which he hasn't done since 2011... but then again they do that for every team's #1 and then have a sliding scale of innings after. Robert Stephenson from the Reds finished last year in AA after battling a leg injury at the mid point, he's not too far away and could make difference for them down the stretch if he continues to progress. I could see him pitching out of the back of the bullpen down in September and then moving to the rotation for 2015, very similar to what the Rays did with David Price in 2008-09. It will be definitely interesting to see how the season shakes out as there is enough young impact talent around the division that could prove to be difference makers down the stretch for the Cards, Pirates, and Reds. Most of those young players will make the opening day roster for the Cards, though Piscotty could possibly be a nice injury fill in, and it still pisses me off that they can use arms like Martinez and Rosenthal(a 21st round pick, that hurts) out of the bullpen. The Brewers just need to be exceedingly healthy all year to have a shot as I don't see players like Hellweg impacting the rotation or bullpen in a positive manner nor do we have any bats which are likely to make a difference. Though I'll be curious to watch Nelson, he didn't impress me early in his career at all, but he's come a long way since.

Again, as I acknowledged, the post season formats are completely different. The Brewers will not get to, much less win a World Series, with the kind of roster construction that Melvin has historically built. Postseason baseball is entirely different than the regular season because your depth doesn't matter, it's all about best vs best. Our pitching has never matched up with any of the best teams, not even with Greinke. Zack works out of the strike zone too much, he will struggle with more patient line-ups that won't chase his stuff out of the zone. I agree that the first step to getting to a World Series is making the post season, and there's a big difference between being the 5th team in baseball, and the 8th team in basketball, but the idea being discussed is that if you make the post season in baseball you are a true "contender", which I don't believe to be to true. If we don't match-up, we aren't really contenders, and the part of this equation that gets overlooked too often is that pretty much every Brewer starting pitcher with the exception of Peralta is the same guy... Average velocity, decent secondary stuff, depend almost entirely on control to be successful, throw too many pitches to regularly get through 6... You can have a guy like Lohse or Suppan as your 3rd starter in the playoffs if they are a big enough change of pace from your other 2 guys. Then the hitters have to adjust to completely different style, and that's always something I had trouble with when I played, for some reason a guy who threw much slower than the pitcher before him caused me all kinds of problems but the reverse wasn't true. The Brewers have essentially been the same team since 2006, sooner or later Brewer fans are going to figure it that nothing really significant changes from year to year, the same patterns just keep repeating over and over, and apathy will return. In that sense the Brewers are heading down the same path as the Bucks... perpetually floating around average. Some years will be better than others, but the simple truth is that you can't be 3rd best team in your own division and expect to have serious World Series aspirations.

That depends entirely on your perspective... In this case the Brewers are not and have not been true contenders, they've been chasing the last playoff spot, 85th win, however you wish to frame it... which is very similar to the Bucks chasing the 8th seed in the NBA. Sure the playoff formats are different and the economics are completely different, but patching holes with "name" players for ticket sales is all about the short term, and the Brewers have been operating with the immediate future in mind for far too long, just like the Bucks. I stand by my assertion that if a team doesn't continually build and turn over the roster with young impact players, regardless of the sport, that team is stuck in neutral. There is no such thing as the building phase being over for a franchise in the Free Agency era of any professional sport, either you cycle talent and stay relevant or stand pat and slowly watch it fall apart over 3-4 years. Teams that are successful in FA buy value to fill small holes, regardless of sport, but for the most part FA is a trap where you pay a player for what he's done in the past rather that what he's going to do for you tomorrow.

I appreciate the effort you put into that post, and your main point which I didn't quote, but I disagree, teams don't have to draft in the top 5 to get legitimate impact talent. To be sure the best college talent is gone in those picks, but there is plenty of talent to be had later in the draft. That is the main reason that once the Brewers started drafting in the teens they needed to look to HS talent... A couple of years ago I went and looked at the last 20 drafts, I think it was for Jungmann and Bradley draft, but I listed the impact talent selected from rounds 11-20. I'm not going to recreate the wheel and do all that work again, but off the top of my head there were only something like 2 college players selected by any team in those rounds which made a significant MLB impact. Futhermore Seid's first draft was 2009, and Covey would have been a horrible pick regardless if he signed or not. Jack Z at least took swings at potential impact players like Lawrie, Odorizzi (not Odirizzi), and Jeffress before he left for Seattle. Seid didn't take any potential impact players in the first round until 2012... Yes hitting on 1st round picks is extremely important, but there are also opportunities later in the draft to identify and select impact talent. The Brewers have only hit on 1 of those guys, Corey Hart. Once again the biggest draft problem has been that the Brewers haven't sprinkled players with any kind of impact potential throughout the draft. Z was always conservative after the top couple of rounds and Seid's drafts have been extremely conservative as well. The issues in play are much deeper than the 1st round; such as the Brewer's willingness to go over slot before the pool was introduced, the general lack of activity in Latin America, and how the franchise has operated since 2006 are all significant factors which should be considered when discussing the state of the farm system. There isn't any single issue which has been the smoking gun, and nothing about building an organization is black and white, it's all different shades of grey. Every move builds off of the ones that came before it, continually trading prospects for short term solutions, regardless of how those prospects turned out, left the cupboard bare. And when they weren't drafting exceedingly well the organization's choice to invest most of their player budget into the MLB payroll left little wiggle room to be creative later in the draft and in Latin America with over slot and international signings. With the organization focus shifting almost exclusively to "proven" MLB talent, they didn't leave the resources in place necessary to support the team long term. Every year it has been about maximizing the number of wins for the MLB club utilizing veteran acquisitions of various kinds. I argued at the time that spending $36 on Chapman would have been much better than spending that same money on Wolf. Once again all I think the Brewers have really done is severely limit the ceiling of the MLB roster by acquiring so many averagish and declining SPs over the years around 3 very short term solutions who pitched a total of about 4.5 years between them. Look at the NL ranking for the pitching staff since 2006, I've posted it many times, but either ESPN or MLB's stat pages will give you everything you need to illustrate how horrible the overall organizational strategy in regards to pitching has been.

Anyone associated with MLB or MiLB reads way too much like what the player's family or high school coach would say about him for me. It makes sense because MLB has a vested interest in keeping fans excited about their team and the organization's future. I read all of their opinions, just like I would anyone else, but I don't put much stock in any of those guys with their "sunshine and rainbows" approach to prospect discussion. It will be interesting to see if the MLB draft and prospect team comes more to the middle with Jim Callis joining them, it would be a welcome change from my perspective. Pretty much everyone knows I'm not a big fan of Keith Law, and I think he has the Brewer's system about 4-8 spots too low relatively speaking, but it was a pretty accurate assessment of where the organization is at. I don't glean any sort of joy from having a negative outlook towards Milwaukee's future, but when I watch minor league games I'm looking for guys that standout, players that do things differently from their peers. To get into affiliated ball you already have to be fantastic baseball player, these guys are already the best, but what we're looking for is the "best of the best", players that can get to MLB and make an impact. I've watched a ton of T-Rat games since they moved to WI and there haven't been very many Brewer prospects whom stood out, but I could rattle off 30 names off the top of my head of prospects from other organizations who really impressed me for various reasons. If a player doesn't noticeably standout in one way or another at that level, he simply doesn't have much of a chance to be a productive MLB player. I'd much rather read honest assessments of what the player is now than glowing reviews of what that player could be. I care about and lean towards tools, but I'll also support a guy like Kris Davis if I think he can productive. For example, and I've said this before, I really like Tyrone Taylor's potential, but he's not legitimately in the discussion to be in the top 5 CF prospects in the game. However I think he's our best prospect, and if our best isn't able to crack a top 5 at particular position, then the farm system is awfully weak. Our best pitching prospects, Thornburg and Nelson wouldn't even make anyone's top 20 pitching prospect discussion. That doesn't mean I won't root hard for our guys, sometimes I worry that I care too much about the Brewers' farm system and get too attached to the guys, but I also want the discussion to be grounded in reality and not over the top fanboyisms because these prospects are "our guys". I'll share an example. I was really high on Cody Scarpetta from the draft up until I saw him pitch and then unfortunately I cooled on him extremely quickly. He didn't throw very hard, was already filled out so he wasn't going to add velocity, and couldn't locate consistently... other than his curve, there was wasn't much to like about him in person. I saw 6 or 7 of his starts in WI, he just wasn't impressive at all. I always hoped I would turn out to be wrong about him, but how many posters were putting him high on top 25 lists when he clearly wasn't performing? If he doesn't have the stuff nor the ultimate results, why would he be in anyone's top 25, what could we legitimately hang our hat on? From this year's team I felt the same way about Clint Coulter as a C, he looked overmatched in every aspect of the game, offensively and defensively, which is why after just a couple of games I posted that the Brewers would be better served switching him to a different position. C is the most demanding position on the field, maybe by moving him elsewhere his offensive talent would have a chance to shine through. If he truly made the most improvement of any player from instructs to spring training last year and he was still way below average for an A ball catcher, it's probably time to consider a different position for him. I'm not questioning Clint's talent or work ethic, rather the Brewer's knack for getting a player into his proper position early in his minor league career so he can be relatively polished by the time he gets to MLB and not have to be trained on the job like Braun, Weeks, and Fielder in the past.

I get where you are going with this, it's not the first time I've seen the idea floated around, and I think it could work for large market teams, but unfortunately not for the Brewers... not if we're talking about trying to win a championship. If the bar is set at a Wild Card appearance, then maybe. You can win a ton of games with mediocre pitching and a top tier offense, but no one has won a World Series with that kind of setup. Conversely teams like the Giants and Rays have won or gotten to the World Series with a pretty average offensive team but elite pitching. Baseball is about pitching, your pitching sets the ceiling of your team. If you're the Brewers and the best you can afford in FA is averagish/older/declining pitchers, then the ceiling of your team is that of a pretender. Garza is a fine pitcher, obviously with my affinity for the Rays he's been on my radar for a very long time, but he's not a top of rotation starter anymore. He hasn't been healthy in years, but the flip side is that he's about the best kind of talent the Brewers can afford to target in FA. He's still a #2 best case when healthy and effective but in reality he's more like #3, and we unfortunately still don't match-up unless someone like Peralta takes a big step forward. Even if he does what if Lohse starts to slide? Or Gallardo continues to lose velocity? Recent Brewer teams have been littered with upper tier offenses and mid tier to below average pitching... how far did any of those teams get? We need young impact pitching (actually we need young impact players in general to balance out the payroll), and if we aren't able to draft and develop it then we better figure out a way to trade for it, because we aren't getting that kind of talent in Free Agency. To me this signing is more about ticket sales anything else... bring in a "name" that people know and hope he stays healthy enough to contribute. He's just this year's version of the same recurring theme... Ramirez, Lohse, and now Garza if he signs. None of these guys are good enough to put the Brewers over the top, even as a group. Much like the Lohse signing the organization continues to just tread water, there's a reasonable chance that the Brewers will be significantly better than last year, but that's a far cry from being a legit contender. I would much rather be the Cards or Pirates... I think the Reds are nearing the end of their run, they are about the same place as the Brewers were in 2010... A roster that's starting age with little help coming from the farm, though if Stephenson stays healthy he's going to be a beast and has the ability to bolster the rotation by himself. The Cubs are the wild card in the division, they have very little pitching coming, but they have the most impressive core of hitters any team has had in a long time. If those hitters turn out way that our first wave of hitting prospects did (Fielder, Hardy, Hart, Weeks, Braun) the division is in serious trouble, because the Cubs can buy pitching in FA and they will also have surplus hitting talent to trade for an impact pitcher. I don't see how adding Garza bumps the Brewers up from the 4th best team in the division now or in the immediate future. The Reds, Pirates, and Cardinals all have better MLB rosters today. Over the next couple of seasons the Pirates and Cardinals have enough young talent to continue to ascend, the Reds will likely start to slowly slide, the Brewers will probably continue to tread water with FA patches, and the Cubs could explode. Being the 3rd best team in your own division (best case) isn't a recipe for success, even playing in the best division in the NL, it's pretty difficult to get enough wins to get a Wild Card spot, and yes I do remember that both WC teams came the Central last year. It's much easier for the 2nd place team in weak division to get those wins... like the 2nd place team in the NL Central when our division was pretty awful and it was just a 2 horse race for the division crown every year.

I think when if you are severely disadvantaged team from a revenue perspective you play to remain competitive. The Rays have been to 1 more WS than we've been to in the last 10 years and they have maintained success unlike the Brewers. Every year isn't going to be your year, I think the idea should be to assemble as much impact talent as possible and let the chips fall where they may. Paying players in their late 20s and early 30s market multi year deals is the worst possible way for that sort of team to operate... Brewers, Rays, whomever. If you aren't able to consistently draft and develop players then you'd better find a different way to cycle talent or the organization ends up exactly where the Brewers are. Plenty of posters called their shot on this slow but steady decline as players continued to age, become greater risks for injury, and ultimately become more expensive. The Brewers shouldn't be chasing payroll flexibility but rather talent flexibility, having legitimate depth and options beyond the starting player on the 25 man roster. I agree with TLB, we don't have many 1st division players at MLB or in the minors which is a serious problem.

On the Minor League Forum? I hope you mean the Transaction Forum... otherwise I'd like some proof.

Masahiro Tanaka Sweepstakes Preview: Ranking The Top 10 Teams For The Japanese Ace Plenty of explanation follows each team, I just cut out the top 4 ranked teams into a list. The story has embedded links to the previous stories which are already in the International/Draft forum... and no the Brewers are not one of the top 10 projected teams, which shouldn't really shock anyone.