TheCrew07

Top Colorado Prep Prospect Peterson Suffers Likely Season-Ending Injury Under The Radar: Western Illinois’ Tyler Willman

Well Castellanos may ultimately be an OF but I trouble believing there would be serious interest in Francisco, but I admit to holding a Yuni B level of hatred towards him.

Live arms: Projecting NL rookie hurlers

Says whom exactly? Are you really suggesting that teams think every player taken in the 1st round is going to hit .280 or better as a professional? There were only 29 qualified players in the NL who hit .280 or better last year. Each team on average only has a couple of those guys from year to year. Of the HR leaders, Pedro Alvarez who led the NL with 36 only hit .233. In 3rd Jay Bruce hit .262, farther down Justin Upton .263, Dominic Brown .272, Ryan Zimmerman .275, Giancarlo Stanton .249... being a productive run producer isn't necessarily about the hit tool, those guys who can hit for AVE and SLG... those guys tend to be Hall of Fame candidates, perennial All-stars, they are the cream of the crop, they aren't so easy to find, and rarely are impact college players drafted that late in the draft. I highly doubt you've ever watched Roache play a game, and he played a full season last year, it's just that only half the season was worth discussing. Nor do scouting reports change like the wind... on very young players they may; 16 year olds out of Latin America and 18 year old HS kids from the states, but for good reason as it's nearly impossible to project how bodies will change and prospects will develop when they are that young. By the time the players reach 21-22 years old the reports don't change much, and furthermore what changed in Fielder's scouting reports? They just got much more detailed as he moved up and BA had more information from more sources about him but the same core themes carried through year to year. If you read the MiLB forum you will see that posters like myself really want Roache to succeed, we need him to succeed, but we also try to ground the discussion in realism rather than over-the-top fanboyisms. It's fine for you to say you think he can hit .280 but at least base it on something other than you pulled a number out of a hat and now aren't willing to back away from a somewhat ridiculous comparison to start with. In fact I'm having a hard time believing I've posted so many times in this thread about something so outrageous, it has largely been a waste of time based on your responses.

Reillymcshane basically put numbers to what I was saying in theory. When you extend a player, in most cases you are paying them for what they've already done, rather than what they are going to do. FanGraphs posted a recent article The Cost of a Win in the 2014 Off-Season. As many people have posted the super contracts have always skewed the average cost per win, so as Dave points out the median is the best number to use, which came out to $5.9 million per WAR. In terms of actual value, counting stats like WAR are best because they account for injuries and such over specific time frame, you aren't able to contribute if you aren't on the field. So going to back to reilly's numbers which he posted, where's the ultimate value in extending pitchers into their early to mid 30s when the majority of those contracts turn out badly? I'm not willing to completely close that door, but I'd have to be pretty confident in a pitcher remaining dominant and durable over that time frame. Look at Sabathia; he's remained healthy, continues to pitch 200 innings per season, but yet 3 of the 5 years he's been a Yankee he hasn't been as good as his $23 mil/year salary according the FanGraphs numbers. On average those guys reilly listed accumulated enough WAR to have 2 good seasons over that time frame... a good season being in that 3-4 WAR range so think of guys like Wolf or most of the FA acquisitions the Brewers have made over the years... a couple of good years, then garbage. As is so often discussed around here, it's not about this year, or next year as much as it the potential for dead money on the back end of the contract. There really is no excusing away that dead money when every dollar spent counts so much for a team like Milwaukee than it does for the Dodgers, Yankees, or Angels for example. I despise the "we got a couple of good years so the contract wasn't all bad" argument... wasting money isn't a solid business model regardless of your enterprise. I fully understand that the Brewer franchise continues to appreciate in value, but I'm really not interesting in making Mark A. and the other owners money. I'm interested in winning a WS and every dollar misspent pushes the Brewers farther away from that goal. Regardless, spending money isn't a guarantee of performance or wins... ultimately talent is what wins, the battle between the pitchers and hitters, especially in the post season where it's only the best teams competing against each other and the rest of the cannon fodder is at home watching. We need to match-up best on best to have realistic WS aspirations, not be right around average, good enough to win games to put fans in the seats but not good enough to really get over the hump. At some point you absolutely need a warm body to put on the mound but that's why I've been so pro cycling talent (turning over the roster) so we have more than 1 option we hope pans out. Spending almost $6 million per marginal win isn't all that exciting to me. Gallardo only has had 2 seasons over 3 WAR in his professional career, the drop from him to a Nelson may be not be as great... maybe you go from a 2.8 to a 1.8 or something in that first season, and hopefully Nelson would settle in somewhere around a 2 maybe a 3 in his best seasons. However if you can spend that money on 3B for example where we have no legitimate prospect, maybe you can maintain a 3 WAR player at that position instead of dropping back to some scrub who's around 0 or worse, like 1B last year. I'd rather spend money where I can get the most bang for my buck for the team rather than pay someone else simply because they are "proven". It's silly to me to spend $12 million or more per season a position hoping to just be average there if we have someone in house who has a decent chance to be a 2 WAR player at that same position. Spend money on the places we don't have options and for goodness sake acquire enough impact pitching through other means so that we can quit counting on 30 somethings to carry us.

No divisional information yet, very useful information on all significant international signees. BA always gives us our first insight into these little known players. 2013 International Reviews Index And Introduction

Waiting for a remote install to finish is incredibly boring and tedious work, so I thought I'd post the top 10 prospects for the division prospects from BA, BP, and FanGraphs while I sit here doing nothing. I excluded the Brewers as we have a separate thread dedicated to our own. Baseball America 2014 Chicago Cubs Top 10 Prospects 2014 Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Prospects 2014 Pittsburgh Pirates Top 10 Prospects 2014 St. Louis Cardinals Top 10 Prospects Baseball Prospectus Chicago Cubs Top 10 Prospects Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Prospects Pittsburgh Pirates Top 10 Prospects St. Louis Cardinals Top 10 Prospects FanGraphs 2014 Top 10 Prospects: Chicago Cubs 2014 Top 10 Prospects: Cincinnati Reds 2014 Top 10 Prospects: Pittsburgh Pirates 2014 Top 10 Prospects: St. Louis Cardinals

A bunch of prospect stat lines from across the league below the mini story. Olt comes through for Cubs in the clutch

Even though this was somewhat inevitable, and I'm happy for Steve on a personal level that he is moving on, I will miss him. Similarly to MH, outside of the team(s) I was covering in a particular season, Helena was far and away my most listened to broadcast for many reasons; high college draft picks starting there, interesting HS kids getting bumped to R+ right away, both Steve's broadcast and interviews, and there's nothing quite like drifting off to sleep with the H-Crew in the background. Best of luck Steve! ... and at least he'll (hopefully) never have to broadcast through another ! I love me some peanuts but I have no idea what's wrong with the people of Missoula... "PEA-NUT", "PEA-NUT","PEA-NUT"... just endlessly all inning long... GAH!

Here's his write-up post draft and prior to his playing a game in the Brewer organization, it's subscriber content so I'm limiting it to the applicable text: Please let this go, Fielder and Roache are not comparable in way other than HR power, and for that matter the type of HRs they hit are much different. Prince hit towering majestic type HRs while Victor hits HRs that are out of the ballpark before you're done blinking, they are absolute missiles. Roache's hitting ability has been consistently called into question since his stint on the Cape, no one thinks he's a .300 hitter, not even you, and yet that's what Prince profiled as at a much younger age. I'd be happy if Roache hit .261 in a single season which is Fielder's rock bottom as a professional in 2010, but Fielder also took a career high 114 walks that year against 138 strike outs. Roache on the other hand walked 46 times and struck out 137 in 119 games... not in MLB of course, but in A ball last year as 21 year old. In the same league (Midwest) that Fielder was the MVP of as a 19 year old. Roache can absolutely get better, in fact he must get much better to be an everyday MLB hitter and his 2nd half last year was a good start. However he wasn't drafted for his hit tool, he was drafted for his raw power potential, much like the young 1B the Brewers took last year in David Denson. These are guys with plus-plus power potential, the question is will they ever make enough contact?

I would dispute the hitting ability angle, Prince had a 60-70 hit tool... he was going to hit right around .300 in his best years. Roache looks to be a .240ish hitter, which is in the 30 range on a scouting scale, anything below .240 is the worst grade, a 20. I watched Victor strike out repeatedly on 3 breaking balls in the dirt in person and on TV last year, he really struggles with pitch recognition at this point. He slowly improved over the course of the season, but right now he's nothing more than a hacker with huge power potential where as Prince was a polished hitter with power, even for his age getting drafted as a HS kid. BA had an interesting article discussing this issue, I'll link to it. I agree that Roache is awful in LF, and his arm/range limit him to LF/1B, draft position doesn't really say anything about what an organization thinks of a player other than his upside on draft day. Plenty of 1st round picks have bombed horribly right out of the gate, for comparison sake here are scouting reports: Prince Fielder 2003 Prince Fielder 2004 Prince Fielder 2005 Victor Roache 2013

Thanks, I had forgotten all about that.

He's not even the first admitted user of PEDs who won an MVP, until Caminiti and others give their MVP awards back I don't see the upside here. The taint and stigma is going to follow Braun around regardless for the rest of his career, and the move doesn't really benefit the organization at all either way. Hard core fans are coming out to the ballpark with or without Braun, casual fans are going to show up for a winner... and in the end attendance is driven by the product on the field, at least in WI where we support our teams very well for our population base. Braun may not be as marketable as he once was but I don't see fans not buying any jersey because he's "tainted" now, they will just buy a Segura jersey instead of a Braun, or someone else. If you're in the market for a jersey you just move on to the next player don't you? I'm not sure, I don't buy jerseys anymore so I'm not ever in the market. I could see some fall off in out of market jersey sales... people that were Braun fans and not Brewer fans, but having no idea how to qualify that revenue without the raw numbers it's hard to speculate on the impact. Regardless giving the award back wouldn't necessarily mean that revenue would come back, if you're off the Braun bandwagon is that act of contrition going to convince you to buy a jersey again? I understand the "face of the franchise" and "Brewer for life" type ideas, many fans want players to connect with. I'm just not built that way, I find it difficult to connect with people that I don't have a personal relationship with. I think those ideas are relics of by gone era of sports, with free agency chances are that every player is going to walk or be pushed away from the team at some point in their careers. That is just the nature of the business, but many of us who grew up through the 70s-80s (or earlier) still remember that sense of attachment... Player X is "our" guy, and always will be one of "our guys". That's what we knew and it's a completely different feeling than professional sports today, and I think in some ways part of our love affair with sports is holding on to that youthful enthusiasm we once had. If that is shattered by Braun for example, is any act of contrition ever going to be enough? I think like most things we discuss it depends on personal perspective, for some yes, some never cared, and some will never be Braun fans again, that's just the way it is.

College Draft Prospects Stat Roundup: Week 3

No, I wouldn't extend him, and it doesn't have much to do with his declining velocity or performance drop-off last season. I wouldn't extend most any pitcher who's 28 years old or older, I'd much rather flip them for prospects and recycle that position. If we can get 7-8 relatively healthy years out of a pitcher I'm will to chalk that up as a major victory and move on, I'm not looking to capture every single productive season from every player that we develop. Especially pitchers, as one significant injury can be career altering or ending... if we get them through to the end of their prime statistically and I'm willing to move on, even if they are still under contract, which is why I'm so big on buying out FA years. If you can get 8 years of production out of a player and then flip him for a younger version of similar talent you never have a hole that needs replacing. I'd rather move on from a player a year or two too soon than be stuck with him and his contract when his performance finally drops off. It's not just a baseball philosophy, it's how I view professional sports in general. It started with my Red Wings in hockey in the late 90s, they got very old and very top heavy way too fast before the strike, then it happened with the Packers, and now it's happened with the Brewers. Over time I've just developed the theory that for any organization in any sport to stay relevant over a large number of years the talent has to be continually cycled. I don't buy into any strategy which is framed around "windows", I think that's a way too simplistic a view. I also think that window strategies are the primary reason "blowing it all up" becomes necessary, because moving assets around purely for today always has significant costs on the backside, when dealing with opportunity costs there really isn't a "win/win". You can win today, maybe tomorrow, but eventually you're going to end up shorthanded...

I'm in, don't care which team(s) I end up covering for the LR.

There is already a separate Sano thread started earlier today, please direct conversation there and keep this strictly a divisional prospect thread.

Polanco blasts solo shot in Pirates' win

Cubs' Bryant goes yard for first spring hit

Jordan Swagerty is a RHP and 2nd round draft pick from 2010. Does Cardinals Prospect Have His Swagger Back?

I don't doubt that could have been the case, but then give him more money and keep him in the same role, it's not like he's traveling less with the big league club, in-fact he's probably traveling a tad more with the standard 3 game series at MLB vs the extended series at many minor league levels. There are other coaches in the organization who I'd like to say are difference makers because I like them, Chris Hook for example, but it's hard to say exactly what impact he's having. It's not like the Brewers are suddenly turning out a plethora of pitchers whom are outpitching or significantly improving their stuff.

I wouldn't doubt that the Brewers told Jungmann he couldn't throw his curve, it wasn't that good of a pitch to start with, he needed something better. I thought he flashed a nice change that could be decent if he threw it more during college, I never saw him throw his slider. That curve wasn't an out pitch, I remember something about him tinkering with it in his first season to tighten it up, but regardless, having a get-me-over breaking ball doesn't really make Taylor a better prospect either way. He needs to tighten his command and develop some kind of an out pitch or he's destined to be nothing more than a more talented Dave Bush... pretty average all the way around with a little above average FB... a decent enough backend option but certainly not the guy many posters thought we were drafting. I felt based on the regional and College WS games I saw him pitch that he didn't locate the 2 seam anywhere near as well as his 4 seam, and it's a tougher pitch to locate regardless, so I guess I don't find it shocking that he's developed slower than many thought he would. Especially since it sounds like he's essentially eliminated his 4 seam FB at this point. The jury is still out on him, with better command of that 2 seam and an out pitch he could be much more than he looks like today. However, if it was that easy to develop plus secondary offerings every pitcher would have them, so I think he's definitely facing an uphill climb to be even a #3. The larger issue of course as Law alluded to is the Brewers ineptitude at developing pitching, which took another blow when they stuck Lee Tunnell in the MLB bullpen. I still think that was a completely reactionary and shortsighted moved by the front office because the bullpen was so awful in 2012. The organization would be stronger if he was out evaluating and helping develop our future relievers and starters than simply answering the phone in the bullpen because at one point it was the "most help needed" section of the MLB roster. Maybe he has a larger role than your typical BP coach, but on the surface I still despise that move as I feel it set back the development of every young pitcher in the system below MLB.

Q&A: Stephenson running up Reds' ladder

On second thought I'll just start pushing prospect news as I come across it. Heredia Comes To Camp Looking More Svelte

Normally I've waited until the regular season to share prospect news outside of the Brewer of the organization, but the most recent Reds' article had some interesting tidbits: Here's hoping he ends up as a bullpen option, another closer turned #2 starter like Cingrani wouldn't be good for us. Regardless of his prospect status, that's an admirable accomplishment!