TheCrew07

Hmm, I didn't explain that very well apparently. Edwin Jackson, the #4 overall BA prospect in 2004, #30 in 2005 had/has impact talent, he was essentially acquired for a RP. Very few starting pitchers throw as hard or have the raw stuff as he does. While he's the epitome of the effectively wild concept, the Rays only hung onto him until they needed to make room for David Price and Jeff Niemann. Knowing that they had Davis and Hellickson coming, they spun him for a greater position of need within the organization. Jackson has never really fulfilled his potential, but he pitched well enough to contribute to a WS run and be spun off again for a decent corner OF. Going from a RP, to a #5 pitcher, to a quality corner OF is a pretty good chain of events. The gulf between Jackson's physical gifts and his ultimate results doesn't diminish what he was at the time of the trade. The Rays WS rotation in 2008 only had 2 home grown starters, Shields and Sonnanstine. Kazmir was their #1 pitcher for years, a #1 in the same sense that Yo was our number 1. When he was good he was always more of a #2, but I've said many times I'd rather 5 #2 type pitchers in the rotation than worry about acquiring a true ace. I'm sure you are aware that he was acquired for Victor Zambrano in 2004, who was out of MLB by 2007 at age 31. Then once his abrupt decline started TB traded him for Alex Torres, that's a heck of a return for a pitcher who pitched his way out of the rotation being replaced by Wade Davis. Torres has Yo like velocity but is LH, he's impact talent. They dumped Zambrano at the perfect time, rode Kazmir till dumping him at the perfect time, and a acquired a very nice LHP prospect in return. That's cycling talent very effectively from where I'm sitting. Both Kazmir and Torres are/were superior talents to Zambrano. So my point was that acquiring Jackson who was as impact as prospect pitching gets stuff wise and acquiring Kazmir who headlined their rotation where very shrewd moves, given what it cost them to acquire the talent. Jackson was spun for an appropriate piece given the way he's produced and what TB had coming through the minors, and with both the Kazmir and Garza trades the organization has cycled impact pitching. I know Archer has struggled to start the year, but it's hard to hold that against him considering what Peralta and Rogers haven't done. TB traded for young pitching when everyone else was chasing OBP and SLG through the early 2000s, and when the market turned towards pitching Friedman was able to exploit the organization's surplus of pitching to fill holes in the organization elsewhere. Both Florida teams plan well long-term, for example they don't trade a Hardy and then trade Escobar to end up with Bentancourt in a 3 year window. In fact neither team dumps young cost controlled talent the way the Brewers have for Sabathia, Marcum, and Greinke. Both teams cycle talent the other way, trading established MLB talent at the appropriate time for younger & cheaper talent. You may recall that I've said I don't think good GMs make either the Marcum or Greinke trades, because the GMs that I consider to be the best in the game simply haven't ever made those kind of moves, and rightfully so. GMs of the more financially well off teams do all the time, the teams that get all the press (NYY, NYM, LAD, BOS, etc),but they also can afford to bid for and win impact talent in FA to plug holes, something the rest of MLB isn't able to do. Making those kinds of trades doesn't legitimize a small market franchise, they paralyze a small franchise over the long-term, and that's all Melvin has done here. If you look back to the Jack Z threads you'll see that I was worried about Seid replacing Z (even though I do like Seid, but he's running out of time) because the scouting department lost so many quality people over a 3 year period. I was concerned about the organization's ability to replenish the talent well. The drafts haven't been going very well at all, and Melvin has continued to trade away what little talent we had left in the system. Now we're left with a barren minor league system, an unproven (at best) scouting director, and a GM who doesn't effectively evaluate talent unless he can trade for CY quality veteran MLB players. I hate to be so negative as that's really not my personality, but I just don't see any hope for the future at this time. I haven't been this depressed as a Brewer fan since 2002, and I shouldn't be because the MLB team is winning, and I probably wouldn't be if I hadn't found Brewerfan and become more educated on the Minor Leagues and baseball in general. Ignorance was truly bliss... In the end I'm haunted by this thought... Milwaukee has a strong MLB team and an incredibly weak organization at this point, and it didn't have to be this way. edit. I just wanted to add that I really enjoy our give and take TLB.

If you want to average it that way sure... but historically the bulk of time will likely come over the last 5-6 years. Again he could defy the odds, but on the other hand he seems to have nagging injuries on regular basis now. I'm more of a "when an injury will happen" as opposed to "if an injury will happen" type of person, I view injuries as inevitable. Ryan does work hard to keep himself physically fit, and physical fitness does tend to lengthen careers. Hopefully he can overcome the odds and stay healthy and productive for the duration of his contract, because the Brewers really can't afford dead money on the books.

Did everyone watch those videos Mass linked of Thorny going over the wall to make catches as an outfielder? The bold comments are my favorite part of the interview.

Edwin Jackson from the Dodgers, he was the first to get spun away and Scott Kazmir from the Mets, who was the 2nd pitcher they spun away. Jackson became Matt Joyce, who for some reason I compare to Corey Hart all the time in my head. Kazmir became Alexander Torres who will be the next young pitcher waiting for a rotation slot for that team. He's a LHP, sits 91-93, reaches 95, with a FB that sinks and runs. He also has a plus change and a curve which he's been working on for a couple of years. He's a starter now and like all pitchers without a 3rd plus pitch there's rumblings that he ends up in the back of the BP. Personally, I believe the Rays will give him a shot as a starter before moving him, he has more value as a trade piece as a SP. edit. I said 2003 for the Rays because they woefully mismanaged for a long time, while Florida has consistently cycled talent regardless of ownership or FO. I like the way they operated post 2003 much so than post 1997, I think comparing the 2 franchises post 2003 is more relative to the Brewers situation.

Colby, thanks for continuing to come here and offer opinions, it's truly appreciated.

I wonder why Peralta only threw 81 pitches? That seems awfully low for a AA starting pitcher, especially since he had 54 strikes... The bottom of the 5th didn't seem to be especially stressful for him?

Green is already pretty old for a minor leaguer, what's "much more time"? At some point McGehee will start hitting again but I wish people would quit treating him like he's in the sane class as the players at the top of the line-up, he's not. He's probably the least talented and athletic player with an everyday starting job, it's between him and Betancourt. Yes he over achieved and has made the most of what he has, no one can take that away from him. However he's always been replaceable, all league average players are. What I mean is, he's the type of player that you are happy with when you don't have anyone better, but he's not the type of player who should ever stand in the way of a more talented prospect. He's like Overbay was at 1B, those players make room for legit talent when it arrives. As the Brewers don't have any legit prospects on the entire left side of the infield, his job is secure for the moment, but he's always been someone the Brewers could live without.

I think a couple of you are taking "a couple of seasons" in a literal context, as in he'll miss entire seasons. The most likely scenario injury wise is that he suffers a catastrophic injury at some point that will end a season or 2... a broken bone, a bad muscle tear, whatever... Then when you start throwing in DL stints here and there as he gets older it's certainly plausible that he loses 2 years worth of ABs over the course of his career. The risk of injury goes up with age. Our medical staff won an award (which I think was a joke btw) because the Brewers had the least amount of DL time that one season, but it didn't really have anything to do with them, it was related to the fact that we had a very young team approaching it's peak. Those types of players are injured far less than players 5 to 6 years older than them. Do you think Cleveland fans were anticipating Sizemore becoming injury prone? It just happens, and the risk goes up significantly, in fact exponentially, with age. The chance of injury lessens every year from 18 to the player's physical peak(when they physical mature) which is typically around age 24, then begins increasing exponentially becoming a very steep curve past age 30. The injury nexus looks somewhat like a capital U with the midpoint centered on physical maturity. In the end people are going to believe what they want to believe, and yes some players defy the odds and stay much healthier over their careers. The injury nexus is the biggest reason I don't want to sign older players to contracts, when you add in declining physical abilities which leads to a decline in overall production, I see no reason to build around veteran players at all. That is why steroids were so import to aging players, the drugs allowed players to recover faster and keep playing at high level longer. Sure players hit more home runs, that was a large part of the impact the general public is willing to accept, but don't discount the injury impact of steroids. Whether or not Braun becomes the best Brewer ever depends entirely on how healthy he is later in his career, it's that simple. Without pharmaceutical help he's at the mercy of his genetics and how much good fortune he has injury wise, like players in the past. It's a long road, and as all that money is guaranteed, we all need to hope he has good fortune and stays healthy and productive as long as possible.

Braun might steal 30 bases, but plays like that make me want to kick him in the pants.

Nice work gentlemen.

I think everyone at least on this forum knows and understands my affinity for the Rays front office. I think however that in terms of your analysis, everything prior to 2003 is immaterial as a new ownership group and a much different way operating followed. It's like the flaws in comparing the Brewers prior to DM and JZ against another successful franchise. The disparity between draft position and ultimate results will be the same. Another perhaps overlooked aspect of your analysis is how they both got to their first WS. The Marlins in 1997: C - Chatles Johnson, 1st RD pick, 28th overall 1B - Jeff Conin, Expansion Draft, 22nd pick 2B - Louis Castillo, Amateur FA, DR SS - Edgar Renteria, Amateur FA, Colombia 3B - Bobby Bonilla, FA 1996 LF - Moises Alou, FA 1996 CF - Devon White, FA 1995 RF - Gary Sheffield, Trade 1992, Sheffield & Rich Rodriguez for Adres Berumen, Trevor Hoffman, & Jose Martinez SP - Kevin Brown, FA 1995 SP - Alex Fernandez, FA 1996 SP - Al Leiter, FA 1995 SP - Tony Saunders, Amateur FA 1992 SP - Pat Rapp, Expansion Draft, 10th pick SP - Livan Hernandez, Amateur FA 1996, Cuba I think it's fair to say the Marlins bought their first WS, they only had 2 SPs that they signed and developed, and that's a stretch in Hernandez' case. Only 3 of the starting position players were drafted/developed, 1 acquired through trade, the rest signed via FA or acquired via the expansion draft. Everyone knows about the ensuing fire sale and how far the Marlins fell, going from 92 wins in '97 to 54 in '98. They used the talent acquired via the fire sale as well as high draft position to rebuild the team, never winning more than 81 games again until they won 91 games and the WS again in 2003. Since that time they've been a pretty decent franchise, winning 83, 83, 78, 71, 84, 87, and 80 games. They haven't drafted exceedingly well, even though they had 5 1st RD picks in 2005, and 2 in 2006. Chris Coglan and his .771 OPS is the cream of that crop. They've had much better success after the 1st round, Mike Stanton was a 2nd round pick, is a beast, and was my favorite prospect in their system. The thing that stands out to me the most is the excellent job they did jump starting their franchise in '95 and '96, winning the WS, then cycling that talent back around for another run in 2003, and then cycling that talent again for some of their current impact talent like Ramirez. They don't ever seem to hold on a player a year too long and I just can't say enough about how well the organization has turned impact talent into younger impact talent, time and time again. However, most teams aren't going to be able to buy a WS and jump start the franchise the way the Marlins have, and I certainly want no part of a fire sale and MLB collapse like their fans experienced, I believe it's possible to cycle talent and remain competitive year in and year out without building the team through FA. To me that's the major difference, the current front office in Tampa took a woefully managed franchise and turned it around by understanding the market and acquiring impact pitching talent through very shrewd trades while continuing to draft and develop talent. The Rays did very little through FA to get to where they are, operating exactly the way I'd hope the Brewers would some day operate, getting out in front of the market instead of playing one step behind it. The Marlins bought a championship, then did an excellent job cycling talent through a variety of avenues to achieve a fairly consistent level of success. 2 different ways to get to approximately the same point, though I feel the Rays are the stronger franchise at this point in time. I would love to have either team's farm system, and it's hard to argue with the success the Marlins have had, even though the way they operated wasn't for me personally, they have 2 more WS titles than the Brewers do in a much shorter period of time. I certainly won't begrudge them their success. I also enjoy following the prospects of both teams, as their minor league teams play in many of the same leagues as our prospects do. I'm not sure their is a right answer, I just wish the Brewers would have been able to cycle a Prince Fielder into a Mike Stanton (for example) like the Marlins have repeatedly done, most recently turning Beckett into Ramirez. The Brewers always seem to be operating the other way, trading away a continual stream of prospects for established MLB talent.

He always committed less errors than Gamel, but it's hard to commit 30+ errors in a season. I think he's average at best as a 3B, just from the descriptions I've read and the audio I've listened to. People were cracking on Escobar's 20 errors last season, Taylor has commited 23, 18, 14 (injury shortened), 18, and 6 so far this season. He's never played more than 110 games in a single season, and isn't very athletic. While we all know there's more to defense than errors, on the MiLB side that's about all we have to go on other than scouting reports and the eye test. I haven't seen him play out there, but the results haven't been very good. So mostly it's just the impression I've gotten over the years.

I don't want to beat the same drum over and over, but I think historical perspective will cool people's enthusiasm for Melvin, especially since the team has struggled to replace talent since Z went to Seattle. We overpaid for Marcum and Greinke, got marginal value at best for Lee and Overbay, the trades for Lopez and Linebrink weren't moves that were going to put the team over the top and in the end was just spending prospects to spend prospects. Melvin traded Hardy at his lowest possible value, and got equally poor value in return. He traded Gross for seemingly the only prospect from the Rays' system to never amount to anything in Butler. I think the perceived success of the Sabathia trade s entirely skewed by personal opinions of a single playoff appearance, the value of which will vary by each individual and is extremely difficult to quantify. I wonder how people would feel about that trade if the Mets hadn't given us the WC and we missed the playoffs after giving all that talent away. Was going 1 and done in the playoffs really that important to the franchise given the 2 years that followed? At the very least acquiring Sabathia (aided of course by getting nothing for Sheets) and signing worthless FA pitchers to replace him kept the organization's lack of impact pitching domino effect rolling, we've still to acquire legitimate pitching that we control for 3 or more years, even after dumping the 4 best prospects in the system and Escobar this off season, and we certainly haven't bought any wins pitching wise at a discounted rate. I realize I was biased against Dykstra, X and I had many interesting debates about him between the draft and minor league forums, and I also realize that I've crapped on every single one of the trades I mentioned in the first paragraph repeatedly. I admit that outside of shipping Sexson when he first got here and acquiring Lee and Villy, I haven't liked a single trade that Melvin has made. All that being said the trade for Morgan was extremely economical and was excellent talent management all the way around. So I say kudos to Melvin for finally getting one right... as for extending his contract based on any trade he has made... never. I won't miss him or Nichols at all when they are gone and in fact it won't happen soon enough for me. He's had plenty of time to get it right, to build a solid organization from the ground up, now we're left hoping we stay healthy enough to make a run at the playoffs this year and next because the cupboards are absolutely barren below the MLB team. He's built a house of cards and I hope that it was enough for one last run towards a WS, but I fear the worst.

Funny you put it that way because I was just thinking along similar lines, I was looking at the organization pitching depth chart... Thornburg is the only prospect starting pitcher in the organization above rookie ball with a K/9 over 9. In fact of all this is analysis is going to ignore the DSL kids as they've just gotten started. Peralta, Scarpetta, and Ross are all in the mid 8s (which is still good), everyone else is in the 7s or worse, bottomed by Hall at 3.94. I actually thought it was his K/BB ratio at first, he needs to learn to miss some bats. Out of curiosity I looked at Odorizzi's and wished I hadn't, he's at 12.6, of course his BB/9 has dropped this year to 2.4... I know it's early and there is a long ways to go but he has a legit chance to be special. At least we have Thornburg the reliever to look forward to! (no I'm not going to let that go anytime soon) Speaking of BB/9... no prospect is under 2 but Hall, Heckathorn, Ross, and Bucci are all under 3. Bowman is at 3.1, Burgos and Thornburg both sitting at 3.2, Peralta is at 3.6 which is an improvement over last year's 3.9, Rosario (whom I'm still intrigued by), Bulter, Rivas (damn you Amaury), Scarpetta, Lasker, and De La Cruz are all over 4. Nelson, Howell, and Miller are in the mid 5s, and Rogers... *sigh* who even knows if he'll pitch again this season or how effective he'll be. WHIP wise thank goodness for Ross, Thornburg, and Bucci, cause it gets pretty horrid in a hurry. Bowman (whom I consider more of a reliever now) is at 1.336, Miller is at 1.368, Hall is at 1.375 and then every other prospect is over 1.4. ERA closely follows WHIP to no one's surprise. After top 3 pitchers WHIP wise the next best ERA is 3.68, which surprisingly belongs to Hiram Burgos who also possesses one of the systems highest H/9. Howell is somehow at 3.77 despite a .94 K/BB ratio. Scarpetta has a 3.91, Hall has a 3.94, everyone else is over 4... boo. H/9 is about what you'd expect, Ross leads the way with a meager 6.7, Miller has a surprising 6.9, Thornburg is at 7.1, Bucci is at 7.5, and Howell has done well at 7.8. De La Cruz, Rivas, Scarpetta, and Bowman are in the 8s, Nelson 9.7 and Peralta 9.9, and everyone else pretty terrible at 10.0 or higher. Outside of Bucci, Ross, and Thornburg, none of whom are pitching above A ball, there hasn't been much to feel good about on the whole. Pitching wise it's starting to feel like 2004 all over again after the optimism during the 2003 campaign. I hope the next 2 months bring much better results than the first 2.

After Green's "Your wrist will just heal magically over the winter" fiasco I've been pulling even harder for him. It is disappointing that his defense hasn't really improved over the years. Who knows though, maybe he can be the next McGehee...

Thornburg and Davis for me.

I'm shocked his SLG is that low, is KC that much bigger of a park? I honestly don't know, haven't cared about park factors in years. It's still incredibly lame that he wasted his time playing winter ball instead of working in the weight room to become a better athlete. His defensive line is pretty sweet, looks like Escobar is coming into his own there: 285 chances, 101 putouts, 181 assists, 3 errors, and 36 DPs in 52 games started. It's too bad he's regressing to be the offensive player many around here feared he would become, because that's some pretty solid defense through 2 months.

Gennett? Why would anyone want him as the primary piece for a difference maker? Don't get me wrong, I like Scooter quite a bit, but he fell off at the end of last season and hasn't exactly set the world on fire so far this season. Not to mention he's defensively challenged at this time as a 2B... he's developmental project who's going to have to beat the odds to make it, he's only listed at 5' 9", he's years away. Any team trading a legit talent is going to want at least 1 prospect with impact talent potential... we don't have much to offer, and Gennett doesn't come close to fitting the bill at this time. He's mired in a horrible slump so his current line isn't worth posting, he's 1 for his last 29 or something like that, but his OPS and SLG specifically haven't been good all year. Part of that is the FSL, but the majority is him struggling to adjust to better competition. He bats LH so the wind at Space Coast Stadium blowing straight in over the left field wall at 20 MPH isn't going to effect him like it will a RH bat.

Rluz i'm not getting into another circular debate about luck with you. Either you've seen the pitch location or you haven't... if you haven't then don't tell me a 52% LOB isn't sustainable... no kidding. He's not been unlucky, he just hasn't pitched well going back to last year.

Again, who would we trade for Reyes? Kris Davis? Eric Komatsu? If we would trade a pitcher I would go ballistic.

I like McGehee for what he is, but he's been over-valued around here some. He just has such limited athleticism that I've found it hard to get on board with him. He's gotten the most of out of what he has though, no one can take that away from him.

It would be fantastic if Lucroy could be a mid teens HR hitter for the duration of his stay in Milwaukee.

Fastballs down the middle (like that last hit given up) tend to get hit hard, and tend to turn into basehits rather than outs. I fully understand how BABIP is calculated. His K/9 has nothing to do with his FB location and everything to do with how good his 2, 3, and 4 pitches are. Except there where he hangs a slider right down the middle...

Not if he keeps leaving FBs between the thighs and waist over the middle of the plate. Next we'll read about his LOB% as flukey luck, but when you watch the games he tends to give up hits in bunches, and hits on bad pitches. I don't think anyone is every lucky or unlucky for an entire season. He's a much better pitcher than what he's done, but the FBs down the middle have to stop, it doesn't matter how hard you throw if you put the ball there. Nice strike out of Bruce there.

Actually I was thinking specifically of a player like Leake when I posted that, I think he'll settle in as a good #3, but his FB velocity is awful average, not to mention that he was drafted #8 overall. I had read someplace that his FB touched 94, but when I checked fangraphs his velocity is in that 88-89 range. I was thinking specifically about guys in that top tier velocity wise, the mid 90s FB with control and a full arsenal of pitches. Lincecum was a top 10 pick, actually the 10th overall, and prior to his success not the type of big bodied pitcher the Brewers would have gone after. As a sidenote I'm still somewhat pleasantly surprised they drafted Thornburg. As for Minor he was drafted 7th overall, the same spot as LaPorta and Fielder. Again a top 10 pick, and not where we'll be picking any time soon. I agree that in theory there isn't much difference between the 10th pick and the 12th pick, but the best college pitcher taken #12 overall in the last 20 years is probably Joe Saunders? I guess one could argue Aaron Crow or Billy Wagner who are/were RP, but we're talking legit starting pitching aren't we? It's even worse with the 13th pick, Kyle Peterson is arguably the best starting pitcher in that group. Jeff Weaver is the cream of the crop at #14... and at #15 the outlook is a little bit better, Alex White has legit velocity and decent 3 pitch arsenal, but he's the only college pitcher to make it as a SP in the last 20 years from that slot. #16 Kip Wells, #17 no college pitcher (unless you count Ben Diggins), #18 R.A. Dickey, #19 Andrew Cashner (used in relief last season and hurt now, not sure if he's a SP long term or not), #20 Eric Milton... I think you get the idea. Just to use the #15 pick as an example: Kazmir and Carpenter were HS SP picked at that slot who ultimately became top of the rotation starters. The college bats actually faired well in that slot with Stephen Drew and Chase Utley being taken there, and who can forget our very own Gabe Gross! I'm not saying we shouldn't take a college player who has polish and upside if there is one at that slot in this draft, I'm just disputing the notion that that type of college pitcher has existed in the Brewers current draft range in the past. It's much more realistic to grab an impact college hitter in that range than a college pitcher, not a single 1-2 pitcher has been drafted out of college in that range in 20 years.