TheCrew07

Stars Offense Limited in Loss to Smokies Connor Shreve Huntsville’s offense struggled for the second consecutive game against the first placed Tennessee Smokies in a 4-2 loss at Smokies Park Wednesday night. It took Cubs top prospect Josh Vitters to put the Stars in trailing position. Both Blake Lalli and Matt Spencer walked to set the table for Vitters in the second inning. The 2007 first round draftee looped a ball in to right field for the RBI. Stars starter Josh Butler, making his third rehab start this season for the Milwaukee Brewers, worked out of the jam with a strike out and induced a ground out from Smokies pitcher Hung-Wen Chen. Huntsville evened the score at one run a piece thanks to a miscalculation on the part of Lalli. The Smokies first baseman scooped a Taylor Green grounder and opted to start a 3-6-3 double play instead of stepping on first to start the action. Much to the dismay of Lalli, Zelous Wheeler hustled down the base path and was called safe at second though the turn was in time to retire Green at first. The play allowed Lorenzo Cain to score from third after he led the inning off with a base hit. The home club benefitted from some two out magic that made the difference in the game. Brandon Guyer’s second home run of the season gave the Smokies the lead. It came in the fifth inning with two outs and Tony Thomas on base. The Smokies lead was extended further with two outs in the sixth. Vitters and Matt Spencer strung together two base hits in the clutch to score Lalli before the inning came to a close with a Tony Thomas ground out. Josh Butler allowed four runs on seven hits while striking out two. The improvement from his last start, a loss to the Mobile Bay Bears, came in the walks department; Butler walked two compared to the five he gave free passes to on the June fourth outing in Huntsville. Much like last time, most of the damage on Butler came late. Three of the four runs came in the final two innings of his outing. In throwing 80 pitches, Butler set his season high pitch count with the Stars. With a less stringent pitch count limit Butler was allowed to throw six innings, two better than either of his previous two starts. Huntsville rallied in the ninth for a run but could not come up with more. Green started the frame with a walk followed by a hit batter, Steffan Wilson. With an out, Anderson Machado singled home Green. David Cale entered in relief and struck out Chuckie Caufield before getting Brett Lawrie to line out deep to left field to end the threat. With 10 games left to determine the first half division champion, Huntsville is 9.5 games back of the Smokies. The Stars road trip continues Thursday against a new opponent. Huntsville plays the Carolina Mudcats for the first time this season for five games before the Stars return home next Wednesday. First pitch Thursday at Five County Stadium in Zebulon is scheduled for 6:15.

That's the entire problem right there. The average becomes a curve, but that has very little to do with what will happen with any individual player. Some players hit a wall and call it quits, some slowly fade like Suppan, sometimes it happens at 33, sometimes at 38. Others will suffer significant injury affecting their bat speed, range of motion, pitching velocity... whatever. The risk of injury and performance decline isn't always linear, the older players get the more exponential the risks become, especially in regards to aging pitchers. Someone did a study, it might of been HBT, but it was years ago now looking at injury frequency in relation to age and once a player reached their mid 30s the likely hood of injury increased exponentially with each successive year. If I can find the article I'll link it later. Average regression is a useful tool in helping to try to project a given player's drop off from year to year, but when a player falls off the more than the average it's not unlucky or random, it's just life and the way things happen for certain players. Just like when a player out performs the curve he's not lucky, how is a mathematical formula ever going to accurately predict results for any human being accounting for each and every unique physiology? Take Hoffman for example, with each successive year the odds become higher that he's going to lose it, the human body just doesn't maintain that long. The farther we get from a player's peak performance years the greater the risk of significant decline or injury and the less his 3 year rolling average means. Even he recovers to have a successful 2nd half of the season, it's still the beginning of the end for him, this will be the worst statistical year in his career regardless what he does from this point forward. He's just not getting enough movement or location on his pitches in a consistent enough manner to get hitters out. What's the reason it happened to him at 42 and not 36? I don't think we have those answers in my lifetime but down the road we'll figure out enough about the human body to have definitive answers to these questions.

How can you feel bad for Melvin when he signed a bunch of players all over 34 years old? He created this mess.

Oddly the DSL Brewers were postponed again for the second straight day while everyone else played, I wonder what's going on?

Final: Tennessee (Cubs) 4, Huntsville 2 Huntsville Boxscore Unless the big club can pull out a victory we'll be swept by the Cubs tonight which is never a good thing. Josh Butler continues to struggle out of the gate, giving up all 4 runs on 7 hits one of which was a HR, while walking and striking out 2. Hopefully he finds his stride and finishes the season strong. Robert Hinton pitched the final 2 scoreless innings Lo Cain had the only multi hit game of the night, no Stars managed an XBH during the contest. 3 Tennessee errors only led to a single run. Huntsville Recap The Stars had 1st and 3rd with 1 out in the 4th but only managed 1 run. Huntsville Top 4th Lorenzo Cain singles on a soft line drive to center fielder Brandon Guyer. Caleb Gindl pops out to shortstop Marwin Gonzalez. Zelous Wheeler singles on a fly ball to right fielder Matthew Spencer. Lorenzo Cain to 3rd. Taylor Green grounds out, first baseman Blake Lalli to shortstop Marwin Gonzalez to first baseman Blake Lalli. Lorenzo Cain scores. Zelous Wheeler to 2nd. Steffan Wilson strikes out swinging. The Stars made it interesting in the 9th Huntsville Top 9th Defensive switch from center field to right field for Brandon Guyer. Pitcher Change: Ryan Buchter replaces Alex Maestri, batting 6th, replacing right fielder Matthew Spencer. Defensive Substitution: Tony Campana replaces pitcher Alex Maestri, batting 9th, playing center field. Taylor Green walks. Steffan Wilson hit by pitch. Taylor Green to 2nd. Coaching visit to mound. Dayton Buller strikes out swinging. Offensive Substitution: Pinch hitter Anderson Machado replaces Robert Hinton. Anderson Machado singles on a line drive to left fielder Ty Wright. Taylor Green scores. Steffan Wilson to 3rd. Anderson Machado to 2nd. Fielding error by left fielder Ty Wright. Pitcher Change: David Cales replaces Ryan Buchter, batting 6th. Chuck Caufield strikes out swinging. Brett Lawrie flies out to left fielder Ty Wright.

Final: Daytona (Cubs) 6, Brevard County 2 Brevard County Boxscore Cody Scarpetta just hasn't gotten it going at all this year. This time out he gives up 4H, 5ER, 3BB, 5SO, and 1 very costly HR over 5IP. I covered his stats in the Jeffress thread but Cody doesn't have a single positive trend in his line so far this year. Matt Costello gave up 5 hits in only 2 IP but allowed just the 1 run. Sean Halton had the only multi hit for the Manatees and Juan Sanchez the only XBH, a 2 bagger. Cubs top prospect Brett Jackson was on fire tonight, he was 2-3 with a HR, a walk, and 5 RBIs, Daytona has won 4 straight games. Brevard County Recap Cody K'd the side in the 1st... Daytona Bottom 1st Brett Jackson strikes out swinging. DJ LeMahieu called out on strikes. Ryan Flaherty singles on a line drive to center fielder Logan Schafer. With Rebel Ridling batting, Ryan Flaherty steals (3) 2nd base. Rebel Ridling called out on strikes.The Grand Slam that turned the game around for the Cubs, 2 of Cody's BBs came around to score. Daytona Bottom 2nd Kyler Burke walks. Smaily Borges doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder Brock Kjeldgaard. Kyler Burke to 3rd. Michael Brenly grounds out, third baseman Juan Sanchez to first baseman Sean Halton. Jose Valdez walks. Junior Lake flies out to left fielder Brock Kjeldgaard. Brett Jackson hits a grand slam (3) to left field. Kyler Burke scores. Smaily Borges scores. Jose Valdez scores. DJ LeMahieu grounds out, shortstop Josh Prince to first baseman Sean Halton.

You are absolutely correct X, getting something is better than getting nothing, and you did call your shot on this. It's just too bad really, we're quickly running out of options for the rotation but the bullpen will be absolutely loaded with talent... go figure. I'd be into moving whichever one of these young pitchers becomes our closer, maybe some team will over value him and we'll get a starting pitcher back.

He's just lucky... the BABIP is flukey... the wind was blowing out!

It's too bad we didn't pursue Chapman with Wolf's money... Originally I thought we had no chance but when Cincy jumped in and signed him I was pissied because we could have done the same thing. I would have much rather spent 30 million on 5-6 years of a possible ace than Wolf. Hooray for big money contracts to declining players.

Or he could continue to give up runs like he has most of the year. He certainly could go scoreless the rest of the game but it doesn't seem likely, and I'm always going to be unhappy about playing from behind, it doesn't matter if it's Gallardo or Suppan, keep those runs off the board. As I'm typing this he gives up the go ahead 2 run HR... so I guess he made my point for me.

Contradictory how? It doesn't matter why a starter gets converted to relief, it only matters if they will start again. If Jeffress needs the focus of pitching everyday to stay off grass and into his career why would he come back to the rotation? My angst isn't directed towards Jeffress at all, the situation just stinks. This time last year we were very excited about the potential of our Starting Pitching. This year 2 of those names are now relievers, Peralta is just holding his own, Scarpetta is pitching poorly, and Arnett has struggled mightily. It's a much different perspective from June of '09 to June of '10. Rogers dominated A+ with the best BB rate of his career and a K rate over 9, Rivas was just as good with a BB rate under 3 and K rate over 9 on his way to the organization's pitcher of the year award. Peralta has lowered his BB rate from last season, but he's also lowered his K rate almost 3 full strike outs per 9 innings... not good. Now he may be working on something specific like Rogers, but his results have just been so/so thus far in the season. He's just not been dominant, and best case he's 2 years away. I'm still high on Wily. Scarpetta is actually trending the wrong way as he moves up. His BB rate has climbed this year to 5.7, his K rate has decline to 9.1 (which is still very good) but his K:BB ratio is under 2, his WHIP is currently 1.726 which .4 over what it was last year. At his best Cody is maybe a #2 with his curvebal but more like a 3, his velocity is just very average. Right now outside of Cody's curve there's not much to like and I'm not willing to pencil him into the rotation, much less the top of the rotation. The other guys aren't even worth discussing for a rotation slot in the next 2 years. Heckathorn is probably the closest pitcher of that group and if he comes up to A+ and continues his success he's probably on a similar track to Peralta looking at mid 2012 to 2013. I've really come around on the Covey pick, but I'll be stunned if he's MLB ready in 3 seasons.

Final, Game 2: Wisconsin 4, Bowling Green (Rays) 1 Wisconsin gets the split By Chris Mehring / Wisconsin Timber Rattlers GRAND CHUTE, WI - The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers defeated the Bowling Green Hot Rods 4-1 in the second game of a doubleheader Wednesday afternoon at Time Warner Cable Field. Khris Davis homered and Jon Pokorny pitched 2-1/3 scoreless inning of relief to spark the Rattlers to a big rebound win after a 17-5 loss in game one. Davis put the Timber Rattlers (22-37) in front with a long home run to left field to lead off the bottom of the second inning. The home run for Davis, who will be starting in the outfield at the Midwest All-Star Game for the Western Division, was his seventh of the season. Bowling Green (24-34) tied the game with a two-out RBI single by Chris Murrill in the top of the third inning. The Rattlers retook the lead on a two-out RBI single of their own in the bottom of the third. Michael Marseco reached second with one out on an error. Dykstra lined a single through the right side of the infield with two outs and Marseco scored easily and the Rattlers were back in front. Wisconsin starting pitcher Maverick Lasker got into a jam in the top of the fifth. The first two batters reached on singles. The Rattler right-hander got the first out on a popout, but a passed ball allowed the tying and go-ahead runs to get into scoring position. Lasker struck out Murrill for the second out, but walked Tyler Bortnick to load the bases. That brought Brett Nommensen to the plate. Nommensen, who had three hits and four RBI in game one of the doubleheader, would not face Lasker. He would face Pokorny. Before game two on Wednesday, Pokorny had inherited 17 base runners this season and had allowed only two to score. Nommensen drove a 1-2 pitch from Pokorny deep to right-center, but right fielder Erik Miller ran it down for the final out and the Rattlers still held a 2-1 advantage. Dykstra helped the Wisconsin pad their lead in the sixth inning. He drew a leadoff walk and took third on a single by Scooter Gennett. A wild pitch let Dykstra score and Gennett to move to third. Chris Dennis sent Gennett home with a sacrifice fly for a 4-1 lead. Pokorny struck out the side in order in the top of the seventh to nail down the win and the doubleheader split for the Wisconsin. The series finale is set for Thursday night. Jake Odorizzi (2-1, 3.81) is the scheduled starting pitcher for the Rattlers. Aaron Dott (1-2, 3.12) is set to start for the Hot Rods. The Timber Rattlers are holding their second annual SALUTE TO COWS night in conjunction with National Dairy Month on Thursday. There will be show cows on display and the Cousin's Subs MOO-TOUR will host a mooing contest outside the stadium. The first 1,000 fans will receive a cereal bowl courtesy of Milk Source. There will be samples from Dupont Cheese and various cow-themed promotions during the game. After the game, fans may play Launch-A-Ball and win great prizes from area businesses. Game time is 7:05pm. If you can't make it out to Time Warner Cable Field, you may tune in to the broadcast on AM1280, WNAM beginning with the Miller Lite Pregame Show at 6:45pm. HOME RUN: WI: Khris Davis (7th, 0 on in 2nd, off Alex Colome, 0 out) WP: Jon Pokorny (4-1) LP: Jesus Colome (4-5 TIME: 1:50 ATTN: 1,921 Wisconsin Boxscore Just as Chris said Jon Pokorny has been amazingly effective stranding inherited runners. In fact, he's having a very nice season, his peripherals are outstanding, he's due for a promotion up to BC here at some point. Coming into today's action his K/9 was 13.3, BB/9 3.2, K:BB 4.22, too bad all of our pitchers don't have those ratios. Meanwhile Maverick Lasker was a bit up and down, both his Ks were the same batter, but he managed to lower his ERA to 3.80. In a shocking development Scooter Gennett only managed 1 hit and other than the Kris Davis HR mentioned above, the only other XBH was Mike Marseco's double. Despite Erik Miller's fantastic catch to get Lasker and Pokorny out of the 5th, the T-Rats continue to play less than spectacular defense, D'Vo added his 8th error already on the season. Wisconsin Recap After cruising through the first 2 innings, Lasker struggled in the 3rd and 5th. Bowling Green Top 3rd Tomas Francisco flies out to center fielder D' Vontrey Richardson. Diogenes Luis pops out to third baseman Cutter Dykstra. Ty Morrison reaches on fielding error by center fielder D' Vontrey Richardson. Ty Morrison to 2nd. Christopher Murrill singles on a ground ball to center fielder D' Vontrey Richardson. Ty Morrison scores. With Tyler Bortnick batting, Christopher Murrill steals (22) 2nd base. Tyler Bortnick flies out to right fielder Erik Miller. Bowling Green Top 5th Tomas Francisco singles on a ground ball to left fielder Peter Fatse. Diogenes Luis singles on a fly ball to left fielder Peter Fatse. Tomas Francisco to 2nd. Ty Morrison pops out to shortstop Michael Marseco. With Christopher Murrill batting, passed ball by Austin Stockfisch, Tomas Francisco to 3rd. Diogenes Luis to 2nd. Christopher Murrill called out on strikes. Tyler Bortnick walks. Pitcher Change: Jonathan Pokorny replaces Maverick Lasker. Brett Nommensen flies out to right fielder Erik Miller.

"the year of the pitcher" BA and BS should have qualified that with, "well except in Milwaukee of course"

Like I don't know our pitching prospects? How far away are all of those guys? Peralta has been very average in A+, Scarpetta has been poor in the same pitcher's league, Heckathorn and Odorizzi haven't pitched above A ball yet. They said also said Braddock had a chance of coming back to starting... I hold no illusions that if Jeffress is successful in the bullpen they will switch him back to a starting role. Rivas and Rogers are the only starters who could realistically impact the top of the MLB rotation any time soon.

Please explain to me how Lucroy, not LuCroy, becomes a better player riding the bench? We've already burnt up a year of Gamel for cheap on nothing, why should we do the same with Lucroy? From both a development and value to the organization standpoint it makes no sense for prospects to ride the MLB bench. When these guys are walking a year sooner than they otherwise should have then we'll be back to complaining about wasting service time on the bench. Other than production nothing is more important to a small market team than service time, we need to make the most of those 3 very cheap pre arby years.

Braddock and now Jeffress moved to the pen, I'm thrilled losing our best arms to relief before they even get out of the minors... meanwhile the rotation is garbage. Rogers and Rivas are rapidly becoming our only hope of salvation, what a depressing day on the minor league side of the fence with both Salome and Jeffress stepping down in value.

Well this really stinks, that's all I have to say.

Then Lucroy needs more playing or needs to be demoted, do not waste his service time playing once every 5 days.

I'm so glad you are beating that drum so I don't have to.

Wisconsin Timber Rattler Pre Game Audio Another excellent interview from Chris who interviews pitching coach Chris Hook. They discuss pitching prospects Nick Bucci, Kyle Heckathorn, and Jake Odorizzi in detail. They also discuss the pitching staff as a whole and Steven Strasburg's debut last night

I think they are headed in the right direction

D'Vo dude... now a 7 run inning on a ball that D'Vo got completely turned around on and then had bounce off his glove... scored a double. There has been generous scoring between that play and the Dennis boot at 1B being scored a hit. edit. Not like the team needs more errors assigned already leading the league, but still.

Between the audio problems and the pitching the last 2 innings I would have turned this off if I didn't want to capture the Chris Hook audio interview that's coming up between games.

Here's something to ponder. Aroldis Chapman lhp 6 years/$30.25M (2010-15) 6 years/$30.25M (2010-15) signed by Cincinnati as an amateur free agent 1/11/10 $16.25M signing bonus ($1.5M at signing; $1.5M each Nov. 1, 2010-13; $1.25M each Nov. 1, 2014-20) 10:$1M, 11:$1M, 12:$2M, 13:$2M, 14:$3M, 15:$5M player optionChapman must decide whether to accept or decline 2015 player option within 5 days after end of 2014 World Series if Chapman qualifies for arbitration after 2012, $5M is converted to a bonus and he becomes arbitration-eligibleif Chapman qualifies for arbitration after 2013, $3M is converted to a bonus and he becomes arbitration-eligible Randy Wolf lhp3 years/$29.75M (2010-12), plus 2013 club option 3 years/$29.75M (2010-12), plus 2013 club optionsigned by Milwaukee as a free agent 12/9/0910:$9.25M, 11:$9.5M, 12:$9.5M, 13:$10M club option ($1.5M buyout)performance bonuses: $0.125M each for 190, 200 innings$4M of 2010 salary deferred $0.25M assignment bonus if traded limited no-trade clause Who's the better value for essentially the same total contract value in: 2010? 2011? 2012? 2013? I'll concede that Wolf will probably be more value pitcher in 2010, Chapman likely won't pitch in MLB until September. However what about in 2011? What about over the length of the contract? Instead of getting hung up on the obvious, if we're willing to open up our minds a little bit there are always other possibilities out there for us. I firmly believe that there are better ways to spend money than Melvin has been doing.

I'm not sure how it's possible, but Dennis might be worse at 1B than he was in the OF. I never saw him play poorly in the OF in limited action, but word from the prospect gurus was that he was pretty bad.