TheCrew07

With all the BC rain outs why not use their pitchers?

I have nothing of substance to add other than I think I'll start bypassing nationally televised games from now on, they are a jinx!

I was wondering about that too TLB, and not to take this too far off topic, but I was wondering if TH gets his list directly from the Brewers, and that's why Dykstra was so high, because they had just taken him in the 2nd round? Whatever the case, I'm not all that high on BA's lists anymore because I just have a hard time believing that TH or any beat writer follows the minors as closely as even some fan sites do. I'd put Colby, Mass, And That, Pogo... basically all of our staffers up against TH any day of the week.

I wasn't going to post this because the chances are still remote for Jones, and the organization was going to release him this year brewmann04... Ever since Hardicourt blogged or wrote last year that Jones had no chance, I kind of wanted him to make it, even if it wasn't with the Brewers. The beat writer has no business writing a story like that when he clearly doesn't follow the minors like he should.

To quote a line from one of my favorite shows... "Holy Crap!" That's extremely encouraging, here's to continued AA success for him and the organization.

Both those players were part of much larger deals. JLDR always had great stuff and couldn't harness it, but honestly if Melvin trades with Atlanta or Arizona again for prospect pitching we're in trouble, because those guys get jettisoned for a reason... and in hindsight we should have known better about Zach Jackson. I think if that move (Overbay) happened now many of us would question it, at least on the minor league side. I'm not sure what we expected to get quality wise for Overbay who's an averagish 1B, but getting a solid backup in Gross and a good #3 in Bush out of that deal was pretty good though. I said what I meant, I'd rather he target top of the rotation starters who are top prospects from teams that have a solid MLB rotation already or are dumb enough to trade them. I'd rather not be Texas, trading away young pitching for hitting when they already had a good offense and then signing aging FA SPs on the decline to anchor the rotation. Texas was dumb enough to move Volquez, maybe they will move Feliz as well, I've been coveting him since the Teixeira trade. I'd trade them Fielder for Feliz in a heartbeat, but I don't expect anyone else to be down with that move.

I wasn't basing it solely on the box scores, I took into account his results thus far as well as first hand accounts about his velocity and pitches. He's been very mediocre for a 2nd round pick, especially a college pick, he's not great, he's not bad, he's just right in the middle, as are all of the reports we get on his stuff. I'll see him soon enough in person and will get some video... outside of post draft comments there hasn't been a glowing review of him that I remember reading... a feature article or 2, but nothing about his potential on the mound.

Best Player Available... but in general drafting at the bottom it's hard to find can't miss talent so we'll continue to see a heavy dose of HS talent I'm sure. Z and Seid both focus on impact players, they want all-stars, so I'm sure we'll continue to see quite a few toolsy high risk/reward type players. I don't mind the having all the position talent around, I'd just rather Melvin was more aggressive flipping unproven bats for unproven pitching. I'd rather make deals for a Garza or Volquez than for a Sabathia or Peavy. I guess in a perfect world I would like them to get as good at drafting pitching as they are at evaluating hitting, but I'm not sure how realistic that is without changing personnel in the scouting dept.

I think you missed my point.. Who cares about hitters when rotation is very average and we already have a good offense? Why trade any pitching for more hitting, when the hitting isn't broke?

Lawrie DHing has a hit and 3 walks! The OBP police will like that... Miller, Kemp, and Sanchez with 2 hits a piece. Adams stuff can't be all that electric, I wonder what the scouts saw in him to give him a 2nd round rating? Almonte walks 3 with 0K in 2IP. Nashville absolutely crushed, I gotta believe Littleton's days are numbered. Nothing noteworthy on the hitting side.

Regardless of the outcome of this inning, pushing Yo up over 120 pitches is just dumb.

So we have no pitching above AA, and you want throw away a high ceiling pitching prospect like Braddock for a rental of a position player? The lineup will not be the undoing of this team, I honestly have a hard time accepting why people obsess so much over the lineup. Is it because we see those guys every day and the starters every 5th? That's a horrible deal for the Brewers long-term. The way this season is shaping up he might be our most advanced SP, he's a LHP, he runs it up there in the low to mid 90s consistently, and you want to trade him for a marginal upgrade over Hart? Normally I think your analysis of potential trades is pretty good but this trade just stinks. I'm sorry for the venom, but I really struggle with people wanting to dump young pitching for whomever when we don't have enough it to begin with. We have positional depth, we have NO pitching depth at AA or higher (Jones aside, he's a good story but I'm not willing to jump on that bandwagon just yet)

Nope it doesn't, because the risk is the large contract, with a minimum of 15 million dollars wasted in any particular year if he gets hurt the risk in his contract is substantial. I don't recall him having a major injury yet, so sooner or later the big one is going to strike, and I'm not willing to hedge my bets with Peavy. The idea should be to acquire Peavy type players before they are established, rather than overpay them on the back end of their careers. This is why i was huge on a Fielder for Shields swap last season, I was down with the Fielder for Santana/Kotchman idea that was posted last year , I was into Marcum and McGowan before they got hurt, I liked Morrow before his move to the bullpen, and I thought the Garza for Young and Volquez for Hamilton deals were exactly the type of moves we should be looking to make. It's much easier to find an average to above average bat to plug into a hole than it is to acquire front line pitching. Again I don't see the value in overpaying for pitching in salary or prospects. Which reminds me, did anyone else find Melvin's comments off the mark? They've drafted a bunch of starters early that didn't pan out and only 2 that have in Sheets and Gallardo... while there is still hope for Jones, Jeffress, Ordorizzi, Lintz, Frederickson, Adams, and Rogers the list of recent (may still be with the team) high pitching draft picks that got injured is uninspiring... Jones, Rogers, Neugy, and Gold. Wilhemsen had personal issues, Artman never pitched above Beliot, and Inman got traded. Also, it seemed odd that he'd only focus on the top of the drafts whenthey've done a good job finding significant value in the later rounds pitching wise. Parra was a DFE, Eveland 16th, Hendrickson 10th, Scarpetta 11th, and Garrison 10th. He also ignored the loft bonuses the team threw at international free agents as well like Rolando Pascual that haven't amounted to anything. I guess my point is that they've gone after plenty of pitchers, they just haven't had much success with the high profile moves. Even so if Rogers and Jones stay healthy, the rotation would be petty lights out right now. They've also missed badly with some bats at the top, Gwynn never became a starter, Murray is out of baseball I believe, Krynzel never made an impact, Palmisano flamed out quickly, and Fermaint never made AA (wow other than Weeks the top of 2003 really stunk). The good news here was that they did a better job judging the bats, the 2004 draft looks particularly strong with Braun, Gamel, and Salome all in that draft class. Throughout the years they got Hart in the 10th, Brantley in the 7th, Hardy in the 2nd, and hit with Fielder, Weeks, Braun, LaPorta, and Lawrie (I know it's too soon but I like the kid) at the top. They've just done a much better job evaluating hitters than the pitchers, they taken plenty of arms in the first 10 rounds, only a couple have made it.

Suppan 12.5 Fielder 10.5 Hall 8.4 Looper 6 Riske 4.5 Braun 1 That's 38.4 million Arby Eligibile/Pre Arby players 2009 Salary Hardy 4.65 Bush 4 Hart 3.25 Weeks 2.45 Gerut 1.775 McClung 1.66 Coffey .8 Villy .45 Parra .43 Rivera .42 Gallardo .414 Stetter .40 DiFelice .40 McGehee .40 I'm not including Julio's .95 because I doubt he's on the team next season, or later this season. That's 22.18 which brings the grand total to 60.58 Million based on this year's salaries. Hardy, Hart, Weeks, and Bush are going to see significant raises as they approach the back end of arbitration. Rivera should see a jump of some sort going into his first year. I believe Villy will be arby eligible for the first time. Coffey will see a pay increase, maybe double what he currently makes if he keeps performing. McClung will get also get another raise. Parra, Gallardo, DiFelice, McGehee, Gamel, and Stetter will all be cheap. Hall isn't tradable, so I see him moving to super sub and taking Counsell's roster spot. That still leaves a hole at CL with no Hoffan and C without Kendell. Salome would cost .40 as would Dillard, Aguilar, or whomever if they don't resign Hoffman. I'm guessing that Hardy, Bush, Hart, and Weeks will cost (these are guesses) an extra 12 mil, Rivera an extra .5, Villy 1.5, Coffey 1.5, and McClung 1 so I see the arby raises costing 16.5 total which would puts us at 76.68 without a proven closer or catcher. (note that I don't care about the closer or catcher, but I figure I'll be in the minority again in that regard) If we figure a 90 million payroll is about the cap, that leaves them 13.32 million to play with, some of which I hope they'll use to lock up Yo early and get a nice team friendly deal along the lines of James Shiels' contract. Peavy would make 15, 16, 17, and 22 mil (assuming the option is picked up as part of him waiving his no trade). The old rule of thumb I've heard teams go by is no more than 15% of the payroll to any one player. Peavy's percent of 90 million would be 16.6%, 17.7%., 18.8%, and 24.4%. The first 3 years are pretty borderline and probably doable, but that option year is the devil. If he gets hurt or starts to show his age that last year would be absolutely crippling to the franchise, and I don't see him as someone I'd be willing to risk a trade on. Escobar isn't on the block, he wasn't for Sabathia and he won't be for Peavy because the team isn't going to resign Hardy. There's no way the team could acquire Peavy and resign Hardy without immediately dumping Fielder. I don't see Peavy costing anything less than Parra and 2 of our better prospects because we don't have the pitching, and if we did we wouldn't make a move for Peavy in the first place. Many people in baseball believe that all things being equal pitching is greater than hitting, an Ace pitcher on his game is going to shutdown any offense in the league. I subscribe to that theory as well, which is why I'm always harping on pitching while many people are focusing their attention on the lineup. SD can win in that ball park if the pitching is good enough, they can look to the FA market to fill their hole at SS if they get the pitching they want, I think Peavy for pitching prospects is exactly what they should be looking do, it makes perfect sense. Signing bats makes a heck of a lot more sense for small and midmarket teams than FA pitching. Finally, just because the team can afford to spend 90 million per year, doesn't mean they should. If there is good value out there absolutely, but to spend 90 mil just because it's possible doesn't make much sense to me. My greatest fear is that instead of making a bold move for some young pitching Melvin will do what's easy and keep signing Looper/Suppan quality FAs while we wait on the kids to pan out. If that's the route we go I think the team will be good, but never great, because the rotation will never be more than average and our top 3 will be in the bottom half of the other playoff teams.

Escobar with 3 hits and a Fielding Error... no Salome. Iribarren with 2 more hits, too bad he corkscrewed himself into the ground both MLB ABs he had.

Mass Hass... Nugget King. That's a great story and some unreal numbers he's putting up, I wonder if the Brewers have kept tabs on him?

Holliman with one of his better outings of the year. Green continues to light up AA, Lucroy not so much. Bulter's K/BB ratio continues too stand out as one of his poorer secondary stats, but hard to argue against 3 hits... Schafer was an absolute monster at the plate today. Gindl with a hit today, Farris with a multi hit effort. Wilson continues to get time at a variety of positions has his second error of the season and 1st at 3B. Peralta was lights out, 0 BBs and 10Ks. WI with only 2 hits, Sanchez at 2nd today, is there any position this dude can't play? 0-0 late but Frederickson came in and the box score has been stuck on .2 innings pitched for a while so it doesn't look good.

There's one Jamie Moyer in all of baseball... I'm not sure that we can count on 1 of our soft tossers to make it as a MLB SP, let alone all 3 that people like.

I would guess that with all the rain out they are just trying to get everyone work again, things should get back to normal with everyone going multiple innings here in BC pretty quick.

Reyes also didn't have JJ Hardy in front of him... Comparing ages and all that is great, but I'm to the point where I'd just rather let the kid play and see how/if he continues to grow as a baseball player. I'm not going to compare him to anyone, he's clearly hit the ball better in 07 and then again in 08. He's a tremendous athlete, was incredibly raw at the plate, but he makes incremental gains every year. Tear him down all you want, at the end of the day he's still a top 25 prospect who's improving at the plate, and he'll make or break his own career, no one on this board knows anything for certain. So he hasn't gotten hot yet, neither has Salome, and I don't see anyone anywhere questioning Angel's bat. Just let the kid progress. Doesn't it get old posting the same opinions over and over again?

Can I keep Braun and dump Fielder for Mauer? Both Morneau and Mauer were more valuable than Fielder... Mauer was worth 5.9 wins and Morneau 3.5... In Mauer's case it's amazing what happens when crappy defense doesn't offset premium offense.

He's more of a 7/8 hitter until he learns to walk more.

What constitutes gap power? 24 2B, 5 3B, 8HR, in 131 games?

SD isn't looking for position players, they are looking for pitching, it's that simple. I don't see DM saying, "Well I know you want MLB pitching and a top pitching prospect, but here take Escobar instead" and a deal getting done. Each time has a long term plan/goals and the needs have to match up for a deal to be made. Jeffress doesn't have much value for a team looking to have solutions in the near future, much to the dismay of many of us he just hasn't been able to locate his pitches and recently was demoted to BC. I love his arm, but his command is was questionable at best. We have no starting pitching in the class that SD is looking for outside of Yo and Parra, and they aren't going anywhere.

Not picking on you because you aren't the only one that keeps posting stuff like this but are people not paying attention to the reported deals? The Padres were getting a young MLB ready pitcher and a top prospect who was tearing up AA, both of which were LH. We have no comparable prospects to give up, Jeffress isn't going to cut it, and Melvin isn't trading Parra or Yo for Peavy. We do not have the pieces in place to get Peavy and we never have. We need to be able to trade to hitting for pitching, which means we're dealing with organizations that have surplus pitching and need hitting, and that's a very short list. A rental player deal could possibly work, but then we'd have traded away at least 4 top 10 prospects (in the system according to BA) for 1 combined year of MLB service between Sabathia and whomever. I don't see the value in the team managing it's assets that way.