TheCrew07

People sometimes appear to take personal offense if a player is called 'playing over his head'/'lucky'... or if there's a projection that ends up being surpassed, some seem to take a personal crusade to blabber, 'What do you statheads have to say now?'... when all that 'stat-heads' try to do is take the most reasonable approach plausible. I agree with what you're saying TLB about people over reacting, but it goes both ways. Statheads generally are not willing to except that a projection isn't a "fact", it has nothing to do with a player's true talent level. I think I come out on the board as an anti-stat guy, when that's not the case, I just don't think the game is that black and white. If someone asks "what to do you see?" about a player, how many times is a stastical argument thrown out there when an observation is asked for in the original post? What's plausible to one person, certainly doesn't necessarily make it so for another. We aren't dealing with facts here, we're dealing with perceptions and opinions about educated guesses. That's why I never drop a projection into an argument, I'll use historical statistics (which are actually facts) to make a point, but a projection doesn't have anything to do with what the player will actually do in a given year, or more specifically, in a single AB. While a projection is based on a mathematical premise, the result is simply a hypthesis, it's an educated guess based on historical data for a full season's worth of appearance or ABs. Applying scientific methods doesn't make something scientific... for example I troubleshoot computers every day, and I've had so much physics/chemistry between highschool and college (I was a double engineering major) that I can't help but follow scientic method. However, that hardly makes my work scientific in nature, my background just provides a model for my behavior. Isn't that what a projection really is? Just a model for how a given player's season should go? Furthermore, I haven't been presented with a single projection system that can accurately predict the outcome of a single AB, and games are won and lost on those results. The "statistical noise" isn't really noise, it's the nuances in the game that are difference between winning and losing. The whole "luck" thing really doesn't have anything to do with being lucky, like BABIP for example. The harder you hit the ball, the more likely you are to get a hit... just like when a pitcher has a poor BABIP it isn't because they were unlucky, it's because they missed their spots up in the zone. Are there instances where a ball was crushed right at someone for an out, or a bleeder falls in for a hit? Absolutely. However trying to sell me that Weeks is unlucky because he would hit one ball hard while popping up another and striking out twice is not going to going to get anyone very far. However, if a player hits 4 line drives for outs then I'd agree that he's unlucky that day. That hasn't been the case with Ricky, he hasn't been hitting laser beams all over the field. He'll have a game or 2 where he does, but I don't think it's fair to quantify his season that way. Simply put very few players can hit a pitcher's pitch and get a basehit, the odds are all with the pitcher and the defense... the players I've seen do it the most are Vlad and Braun... location and pitch selection are everything in baseball. The problem I think lies in the fact that if you aren't watching the game and see where the catcher sets up, you have no way quantify the result of the pitch. So when you're doing analysis after the fact, especially stat based, you're doing analysis with incomplete and innaccurate information. While the result is the most important factor to consider, the intent is also a major factor in the outcome. To me, the single most important factor for any player is confidence, it doesn't matter what level of sport an athlete participates in, confidence is key... I've watched an insane amount of sports in my 33 years and I'm unable to come up with a single instance where someone did something great in a sporting event by accident. For example what's the biggest difference between Braun and Weeks? Is it pitch recognition like some people close to me have suggested, hand eye coordination, or is it simply confidence? I'm not sure from a distance, but I bet the coaching staff knows, if not they have no business being coaches. As a football coach the 2 toughest things to teach are confidence and toughness, and while I can improve a kid somewhat over time, he really has to find it on his own or he's not going to be successful. I've had the advantage of being around sports my entire life, listening to hall of fame coaches, listening to professional players, and what I've learned in my personal experiences over the years that I truly believe the most important edge in sports is the mental edge. What I mean is that no one throws up a last second shot thinking they have no chance to make it and actually have it go in. I've been fortunate to make a bunch of half court or greater shots in my lifetime and I never thought to myself "I'm going to throw up it up there and see what happens". I was concentrating on putting the ball on the rim.... I've missed way more than I've made, but the margin for error is so small the shots are simply low percentage and very few are going to go in. Since there's no way to quanitfy or measure confidence, I take projections and metrics with a grain of salt, especially VORP. I've said many times, but I'll say it again, if statistical analysis increases any given fan's interest in the game it's a very good thing. However it's not the end all, be all of sports... it's just another way of looking at, understanding, and enjoying the game. James seems to be experiencing a backlash as he continually says "more research needs to be done". I've seen people on this board claim that he's a has been and stastical analysis has passed him bye... I don't think that's the case, I think the more time you spend with players and the closer you are the to the game, the more you realize how difficult it is to accurately measure the outcomes of given events. Don't get me wrong, I find some of the work being done fascinating, and I've taken some saber principles and applied to them to the grading system I use for my football players. Sabermetrics has value, but it's just that I don't view it gospel, so I'm going to remain skeptical until proven otherwise. I've been around enough that I'll make a statiscal argument when I need to, but I can definately see both sides of this issue.

I'm not sure I agree that he got sent down and "got things right"... He got lit up pretty bad in Nashville and many of us that follow the minor league side of things were cringing when he got called back up. He's been solid lately, hopefully he keeps it going.

I think it depends on entirely on his defensive position... If he hits well in the Olympics... well that's probably comparable to an AA/AAA mix. I realize it would be a small sample, but it will be telling if he does. For the sake of argument lets assume that he hits... that mean's his bat is already as advanced as AA, as an 18 year old kid. I don't want to get carried away, but if you look at guys that were that advanced at the same age, it's a pretty special list. If he can hit AA, then basically the only thing holding him back would be defense. If he's a catcher I think 2012 is optomistic for his arrival, if he plays any other position such as 3B or 2B (I'm not sure he's fast enough to play CF) then I think he would have a decent chance to arrive by mid 2010 as Braun did... If he doesn't hit... well so what? He'll be better off for the experience and while I wouldn't expect him to move as fast, I'd still expect him to spend 3ish years in the minors... 1st season split between the A ball teams, 2nd at AA, 3rd at AAA probably with a call up. Obviously injuries and such could derail that timeline, but I feel he's a pretty special hitter and I honestly expect him to fly through the minors. Z compared him athletically to Braun, which says quite a bit. Braun is a superb athlete, I'm still surprised at how poorly he moved at 3B when runs rather gracefully (very smooth). I really hope the Brewers move to Appleton, what a great first half it would be prospect wise there next season, especially if Lawrie starts there.

I did miss that, thanks Mass. The Search function has been hit or miss quite a bit lately, sometimes it works for me, sometimes I get like 1/10 the results that I should, it's been a real pain trying to dig up threads and posts to answer people's questions lately, when most of the questions being asked have been previously discussed. I noticed casey had posted about it as well in the issues forum so I figure it's just a bug they are working on.

It just occurred to me that both Fryer and Lawrie couldn't play in Hawaii together... duh. Even though he didn't any professional experience this year I'll be that Lawrie just goes to instructionals and the Brewer Brass figures out where the young man fits. I found it interesting that Z didn't commit to Lawrie catching, but I'm sure they'll start him there. I'm really looking forward to following Trejo and Lawrie next year, both of whom will have lost a year professionally, which admittedly is a bigger deal for Trejo because at least Lawrie has been playing and will face pretty stiff competition in the next couple of weeks.

Green might not be as athletic as Cirillo, but he sure does hit like him, he's probably more of .280 guy than a .300 guy, but 13 HRs in the FSL is pretty impressive. He also has more walks than strike outs, with 1 more walk... but hey it's still a great ratio.. he's walking and striking out 1 per 7 ABs. The only thing I've noticed is that his doubles total is way down this year, thus his OPS is down despite a similar HR total as last year. 1B has been a bit of organizational black hole since Hart was moved and Fielder went to Milwaukee, but I find Kjeldgaard intriguing. I wish his OBP was about 40 points higher, but what's not to like about a young man that couldn't make it out of the same league as a pitcher now playing very well in a different role. I wonder if pitching, and thinking about the game as a pitcher helps him at the plate? Cain in CF again and Brantley in LF... boo! If Cain wouldn't mix 0 for 8 streaks around his good hitting performances he'd be outstanding. He's not raking, but he's holding his own early, and he's had some outstanding games already. So many hitting lines to be pleased with this year... now if only the pitchers would pick up the slack some, it would be nice if the top end of the system was balanced with hitters and pitchers. Though the truth is probably more along the lines that the team needs pitching more than the hitting at this point. Adding Scarpetta, Lintz, Odorizzi, Bowman, Frederickson, Luetge, Wooten, Adams, Nieves etc to already intriguing young list of arms is exciting. I've said it before but what a great time to be a fan of the Brewer organization. Question though, why hasn't Romanski made an appearance as a pitcher? There isn't a strange rule where if he plays as a position player he's not eligible to pitch is there? If he's unable to pitch why let him hit once in a while just so he's doing something? I don't remember him getting injured and web search came up empty, his MiLB profile also lists him as active.

Jeffress is an enigma to me... he can K 11 guys and give up 6 runs, and he'll walk 4 and K 2 and give none... where's the logic in that? edit. His final line 6IP, 1H, 5BB, 2K, 0ER

Every time I see a picture of his sister I have to resist the urge to make a typical male comment. Good luck to the family in Bejing, and here's hoping Brett tears it up.

The only 2 guys I'm pretty sure will see time are Cain and Lawrie, and I only expect Brett play because he didn't get any professional time this season. AZ especially always has a surprise or 2 thrown in, but I agree that Brantley is a logical choice given his level and he's lost time to injury. Jeffress and/or Braddock might make sense pending innings limits and Braddock's lost DL time (again) but seem doubtful to me, typically the Brewers send relievers don't they? I echo Pogo in that I'd like to see Fryer get some time and Gindl has been on such a tear that it seems logical he'd do Hawaii as well. Salome wouldn't surprise me either now that I think about AZ, there's lot of guys that could use the experience.

I love Don Money, excellent interview.

Not baseball related... but a football story to share, take it for what it's worth, as an example of how professional football players police their own. A very good friend of mine played in the NFL and he tells a story about teammates getting out of line. Apparently an ultra talented rookie running back came into camp and was running his mouth about the established backs on the team and his teammates in general. My buddy was also a rookie coming in at the same time, but he was a converted tailback learning to play fullback. About halfway through camp a couple of the team leaders who happened to be Defensive players came up to him between practices (again my buddy was an offensive player) and basically gave him signals to tell them where the play was going, and made it clear that he was supposed to miss his blocking assignment. My buddy was hesitant because he really wanted to make the team and didn't want to do anything jeapordize his dream (for example the coaches thinking he's just a scrub who can't block), but in the end he went along with the scheme. Needless to say the running back got crunched 5 plays in a row, the coaches never said a word to my friend, and he ended up making the team while the running back didn't make it past the 2nd cut. Those 5 plays in a 7 on 7 drill basically were the first step out the door for one guy, and the other earned instant credibility with the veterans on the team cementing his place on the team. In no way is the situation described above similar to the Parra/Fielder incident last night, but the post I quoted instantly brought back this story and I thought I'd share it.

Dave Johnson's Career He was drafted in the 15th round in 2004.

I took a good long look at those stats and my the only thought rattling around my brain was why someone who could put numbers like that would retire like that. Even his last 2 months weren't horrible, those were way better numbers than some current Brewer minor league "prospects". I wasn't going to say anything because I figured you'd interpet my surprise at the abrupt ending of his carreer as me calling him a "quitter", when that's not my intention at all. The dude had game, it's too bad.

He earned it this time... I'd find it impossible to justify his actions. I've been around teams my entire life and yes there's always a fight or shoving match at some point during a football season, basketball season, or baseball season. Tempers flare and guys are competitive and someone will take it too far, it's only a matter of time, it doesn't matter what sport, it's inevitable, at least at the High School level. I have no doubt that these things happen a couple of times a year in the MLB clubhouse where no one would see as well, it's just the nature of the beast. Prince crossed the line and to me it's that simple. This has nothing to do with his weight or defensive issues, he snapped in the dugout during a MLB game, it's totally unacceptable. I hate to go to the class card again because I probably overvalue it, or value it more than others, but it was classless to do something like that during the middle of a game. During the game it's us against them, nothing else matters except getting that W... typically these things come up after the game when emotions are still high and players have an axe to grind. Yes it matters more that it happened in the middle of the game and I'm having hard time trying put my thoughts into words, but that's the way I feel.

Am I missing something here? How Lawrie sign with the Brewers after Aug 15th? Is there some extension granted to players who participate in the Olympics? The earliest any team will be done playing is Aug 20th, which is well past the signing deadline. If there's not an extension then every story including a blurb about Lawrie signing after the Olympics is shoddy journalism. I searched around on the web and came up empty trying to find any exceptions to the Aug 15th deadline.

Well Fryer certainly had an interesting 1st Inning in the field... cripes. I'm guessing with a double steal with a late throw back home which is how they stole home, but that was a rough half inning.

I'm not sure how trading Fielder automatically makes Gamel the 1B... he's biggest value is at 3B, which is why I think he'll start the year in AAA there. There's literally so many different trade options that it's difficult to speculate on any single one, but I really liked Rydogg's Fielder for Santana and Kotchman... that's my kind of deal. I've stated before I'm not even opposed to Brad Nelson playing there if the Crew can aquire a top flight starter.

1. Hardy 2. Hart 3. Braun 4. Yo 5. Parra 2-5 aren't necessarily in any of kind of order as I couldn't logically come up with a way to quantify their status. Interesting point about Fielder Colby, I've never gotten too attached to him simply because I've never expected him to sign longterm with the Brewers.

I'm sorry but I'm confused by your post and I don't understand the "message"? If Fielder is traded and Gamel slides over to 1B it will happen in the off season and there won't be much forshadowing... one day Prince would be a Brewer, the next he wouldn't. Trading Fielder doesn't necessarily mean that Gamel slides over to 1B either. I would much rather trade Hardy, Fielder, Weeks, or Hall in a package for a young stud pitcher than sign another Suppanesque pitcher for the rotation. The only message it would send is that pitching and improved defense is more valuable to the Brewers than Fielder's offensive production. The Nati traded Hamilton for a young stud pitcher this off season and that deal has worked out pretty well for both sides. Gamel's recent offensive woes don't worry me much, Don Money doesn't throw around praise lightly and the way he jumped all over comparing Gamel to Boggs, but with more power... well let's just say I'm a believer regardless what happens. As far as his defense goes, he's made good progress this season and now that he's sniffing the big leagues I would think he'd be more motivated to work on his defensive game. I'll be interested to see where he's at next season. The only thing that concerns me is that when he makes one error he gets the Yips and it seems to take a couple of weeks for him to settle down. I think he starts next season in Nashville and we might see him as early as the end of June. It depends on how much progress he makes defensively and how badly the Brewers need his bat in the line up. This will be an interesting off season for sure.

I been around for a number of years now, and I'm still surprised how worked up people get about placements on the P50... a subjective list... taken from the average position of 4 staffers... I have a very hard time saying that my way is better than anyone else's, or any of the staffers... it's all just a matter of perspective and opinion. If someone questions me why I feel I the way I do about a prospect I'll respond with my honest opinion, but the way I see it there isn't any black and white this stuff, just varying shades of grey. The comments are my favorite part, and I look forward to seeing what each different staffer has to say about the prospects when they get their chance.

Bowman with his second consecutive rough outing, he's still pimpable though. WV getting hammered late.

X For me difference when it comes to Green is that he can play either 3B or 2B, which both happen to be position need. I understand he's not toolsy by any stretch but he's solid. I keep seeing the "short guy" arguement dropped for players like Gindl, Salome, Green... it doesn't bother that me personally they are short, I understand the limitations, the same way it doesn't bother me when a guy is 6' 6"... if he hits that's all I care about. Brantley is way above average offensively in terms of BA and OBP, below average in terms of Power (though he's showing flashes), Speed wise he's probably average for a CF, and his arm is Average or Below Average depending on what report you want to believe, and by all accounts he has great instincts for the game (which is a bigger deal to me than many people I'm sure). As I see it about the only place for his game to grow is power wise, and I just don't see him developing into a 20HR guy, which is why I say he has limited upside. What you see is what you're going to get with Brantley at this point. Again I really like him as a leadoff hitter, but if Cain breaks out I'd rather have him playing CF long term. My opinion of Brantley has not changed, in fact it's improved as he's developed some power this year, it's just that with Cain stepping up his game I like the potential there better, he's been a favorite of mine for a long time. Cain could very flame out, which would make Brantley irreplacable... I just don't think we're there yet. My top seven would be 1. Gamel 2. Escobar 3. Salome 4. Lucroy 5. Jeffress 6. Green 7. Brantley That's just the way I see it. FWIW I don't see Cleveland taking Brantley with Sizemore in CF, unless they are looking to have him change positions or move him in a trade, think Brantley is the least likely guy to go.

Al I don't want to pile on here, I've championed Brantley for a long time as well, but there's no way he's a top 5 prospect. I actually think if Cain will hit he's a better CF prospect than Brantley, he's got better tools and more power. Michael's development was hurt through no fault of his own, he's played every position the organization has asked him to play, but he hasn't played much CF, and that's the only place beside the middle IF that his bat will play. The injury and subsequent re-injury is too bad, because I was interested to see if he was going to continue hitting for power now that's "he's quit sliding around" as Money put it. Of the players rumored to be the PTNBL in the Sabathia deal, the guy I'd be most willing to part with is Brantley, because his upside is limited. I still think he's a great leadoff option if he doesn't go, but I'd much rather keep Green and Lucroy, and since Cain is hitting I'd prefer him to Brantley as well. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Cain broke out over the winter and tore up AA next year as Gamel did this year. As other's have said, that's not a knock against Brantley at all, more a reflection of the organization's talent, I think he's the 2nd best CF option on his current team. Gillespie doesn't do much for me either, though he does have a fantastic eye, the more I think about him the more I think he's a RH Gabe Gross, and there's nothing wrong with that either, he's just not going to be a starter in Milwaukee. edit. To be fair to Cole, he's having a fantastic season, but I've always viewed him as a trade piece, which is why I never seriously considered him destined for Milwaukee's outfield. Cole is exactlty the type of player I wish the Brewers had 2 of in the starting lineup, decent AVE, Good SLG, Very Good OBP... again, I just don't see him having a position in Milwaukee.

Scarpetta hasn't given up a run since that first outing... right now his numbers are pretty Yo-esque... Nice job young man. Edit. Yo's Line in 2004 at AZ... that's 6 starts... 19IP, 14Hites, 3R, 1ER, 4BBs, 23Ks, 0.47ERA, and a 0.95WHIP BRR AZL Rk MIL 0 0 6 6 0 0 19 14 3 1 4 23 0.47 0.95

That could be my Domino, he has some issues... Yes I like cats better than dogs. They are much easier to take care of for someone who isn't home all that much.