I think you just described the vast majority of closers in baseball. There are very few guys who are very good from year-to-year. That's not to say we shouldn't worry about Axford a bit (especially with his minor league history), but it isn't like what we've seen through 6 innings this year is normal for Axford, either. There are a lot of things out of whack with his numbers so far (less first pitch strikes, less swinging strikes, more pitches in the zone in hitter's counts, more contact made by opponents, etc.), but most of it goes back to fastball location. If he can get the ball down regularly again, he'll be fine. I wouldn't worry about him becoming "the next Turnbow." Turnbow had control problems, too, but they were mostly psychological towards the end. Axford's are more mechanical. That's a lot easier to remedy.