pebadger

Well played, packfan. Well played.

Maybe GoGo can be a bit of an energy boost at a critical moment in the playoffs.

Maybe GoGo can be a bit of an energy boost at a critical moment in the playoffs.

Thank you Cubs that we were not forced to "watch" the Brewers clinch on WMLW.

Thank you Cubs that we were not forced to "watch" the Brewers clinch on WMLW.

Pitch Greinke, Marcum, Wolf on Saturday, Sunday, Monday. Depending on the home field situation after Monday you then have options. You can pitch either Narveson or Estrada on Tuesday depending on what you feel the best matchup is, and depending on where things sit with respect to Arizona. If you need Yo on Wednesday, to clinch home field, I think you probably have to use him then. If home field is no longer in play you can use both Estrada and Narveson on Tuesday/Wednesday in whatever order you want. I guess the other option would be to go back to Yo on Tuesday on 4 days of rest if needed, but then you may end up having to depend on Narvy/Estrada on Wednesday for a clincher (or really mess up the post-season rotation). Then you could use Yo again on Sunday (Game 2) with his normal 5 days of rest. This might be the better option because then you still get Yo out there in the first leg of the 5-game series regardless of location. I guess it all depends on how Yo feels. I don't think he has a lot of history in this regard. My own feeling is that a lot of times guys are good going on the shorter start the first time, but sometimes they don't rebound as well for the following start. Obviously that wouldn't be ideal, but it's pure conjecture. So what is more important? Aligning the rotation, or taking your best shot at home field and worrying about it afterward? Maybe the Giants and Dodgers will help the Crew out and make things easier, but I think there is no doubt that AZ has just as much motivation to get that #2 record as the Brewers do. At some point you do still have to rely on secondary guys that helped to get you to the Division title. It might be really hard to do, but maybe you pitch both Narvy and Estrada on Tuesday and Wednesday, put faith in them and the bats and the energy in the ballpark to carry you through. Either way then you can do whatever you want with your rotation no matter where you play.

Home Field Magic Number: 5

Well, there is a satellite crash scheduled for this weekend . . .

So, how long do you figure those guys had goggles and such stashed away in their lockers? Did they just bring 'em in today?

Or maybe just Game 3. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

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That was Pujolsian after contact.

I love advanced statistical analysis as a tool for constructing a roster with an eye toward the 162 games you have to play in the course of a regular season, and maybe more importantly with an eye toward what the roster will look like two seasons from now. I like them a lot in terms of constructing default tactical approaches to situational baseball. That said, it's still a game played by men and you need a manager who can manage those players as both players and people. You need a manager and players who can work together to create an environment that is conducive to optimum performance. Statistical insight can greatly inform those processes, but in the end all the statistical information is still just another input into the decision-making tasks confronting the front office and field management. Figuring how to weight that input in the context of the various decisions to which the information is applied is the real trick. When statistical techniques are applied to any competitive endeavor (business or otherwise), the early adopters usually get a huge initial boost. In essence, they identify and take advantage of the stupidity in their marketplace that usually exists due to reliance on untested assumptions. Once the cat is out of the bag, it doesn't take long for the "new" fundamental truths to become well known throughout the market. It takes a bit longer for people to really adopt and understand the methodologies that went into establishing those new insights. At that point, once all the low-hanging fruit has been picked and the "easy" insights are harder to come by, the real work begins. In a way, this brings us to the kind of ironic part of the "Moneyball" phenomenon, as least as it is generally (mis)understood. People think that using stats makes it easier for the little guys to compete with the big guys. That WAS (more) true, when the little guys were using it to create a competitive advantage when other guys weren't. Now however, everyone is using it and there aren't really huge incremental gains to be made. In fact, to the extent that there are greater insights to be had, the big boys will probably tend to dominate in this field of organizational evaluation and development as well. Finding and hiring folks that can both do the math and then make use of it is expensive. Really good new ideas will likely not spread to all teams quickly; they will be well-guarded proprietary secrets.

Sure it's a cliche, but at this point in this season it becomes a bit more apt in terms of baseball. Over the course of 162 there are times in games when you can sort of write one off, or at least makes moves that are not optimal with a view towards that day's game but which hopefully pay dividends later. (Example: having someone in the pen just take a beating while eating some innings). I think some players sometimes get into that "we'll get 'em tomorrow" mode as well. To the extent that you can "shake off" a loss mentally that's a good thing. To the extent that it's verging a form of procrastination it's not. To me the baseball playoffs are a lot like taking the top 8 players from a 72-hole stroke-play golf tournament and then having them decide the winner of the tournament by conducting a match-play tournament. Same sport, way different mindset (and tactically different, too). I think a good argument can be made that the mindset of baseball teams in the playoffs needs to change as well, and it starts with truly focusing only on that day's game. I think the good managers/coaches can drive home the truth in the "1-0" idea in a way that the guys who are only parroting the old cliche can't. I don't think RR should really change things up now, but I do think that from the moment the division is clinched they need to really keep fighting it out with the idea of taking the home field prize for themselves without regard to what is going on anywhere else. Maybe even resort to the old Packers trick of not even posting the AZ scores out on the outfield boards.

I prefer that the Brewers just take on the Badger football mantra for these last 6: 1-0. The would be well served to then carry that over into the postseason. Thinking about a series implicitly means you are spending time thinking about tomorrow. They just need to focus on the game before them and they'll be fine.

Game over in Arizona. Home Field M#: 6.

Derek Lee with a bomb to stretch out the Pirate lead, 5-1. 6 more AZ outs to Home Field Magic Number 6.

Meanwhile, the D-Backs are fighting back. If I thought the Giants could score a run more than once every couple of days it would be interesting to see them make it all the way back into the playoffs (with the side benefit to the Brewers that it would likely mean the D-Backs can't catch up for the second best record, even if they win the division). I really don't see the NL wildcard winner, no matter who it is, as having much impact at all this postseason, provided a division winner doesn't just go to pieces. The Cards probably have the best puncher's chance.

Pirates at least helping things out. Could knock the home field number down to 6 six if things hold.

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I recognized the whole home field advantage angle in the very first post of this thread. And I never said a title would be less special or diminished by who they beat to get there. Whoever wins, wins. And I never said winning the NLDS is meaningless: it means you get to keep playing. I did say that the NLDS, in and of itself, is not that big a deal. Is winning it an accomplishment? Sure. Every postseason win is an accomplishment. But if one team goes 4-6 in the quest to win the 7 postseason games they need to win to make it to the WS I don't see how their accomplishment is greater, in the aggregate, than that of a team that goes 2-3 when they both lose to the same team and the order of their defeat is largely arbitrary. What I did say is that everyone seems to be afraid of the Phils. I say beat who you have to beat and don't worry about who you play. Losing in the NLCS is not significantly different than losing in the NLDS. The goal is not to lose in either. This is not to diminish any win in the postseason. Every win is great because it means you get to keep playing, but those individual wins are not the goal in and of themselves. Win 3 and you guarantee yourself 4 more games. Win 4 more and you guarantee yourself another 4. In the end the winner has to win 11 games. I want the Brewers to win those 11, but I also want the ride to the championship to be as entertaining as it can be. Of course the ultimate entertainment is for them to actually win the WS title. Nothing else can top that, no matter what path they take to get there. Some winning paths will be better than others, but none will generate complaints. Any path that does not end in a championship cannot compare with a championship but, for me at least, once a WS championship is off the table the entertainment value of the pursuit is not to be evaluated solely on how long the ride lasts. It's certainly a huge factor, probably the biggest, but it's not the only factor.

Braves lose in bottom of 9th to Florida. Cards very much alive and kicking (so are Giants). Blue Jays pound a nail in Angels coffin in extras.

Atlanta is also losing. Things are tightening up in the wildcard race. And while nobody in the media seems to be watching, the Giants are right in that race now too. I won't mind at all if the Cards keep winning. They can then watch helplessly as the Brewers win the division anyway.

Because there's a good chance he'll make more money in arby (which is somewhat backwards looking) than he will on the open market (which is more forward looking). As noted in that article, K-Rod is not what he once was. My dad is a Twins season ticket holder. He was used to seeing K-Rod from his AL days. He went to the Phils weekend with me. First thing he said on Sunday after the 8th was "K-Rod's not the same", even though K-Rod was decent that day. If guys like my dad, who is a pretty astute observer but still an amateur, notices that sort of thing, I think the professional scouting book is pretty much written. Doesn't mean somebody won't maybe have a different take on the situation, but it's not a given that the open market is necessarily a no-brainer just in terms of money. Of course you control a bunch of other factors for yourself when you are a free agent, but just in terms of revenue arby might be his better bet.

What would you characterize "not wanting to play somebody because they have a better chance to beat you than the other guy" as?