Any decision on whether to trade Willie Adames will be influenced by how the Brewers feel about extending a qualifying offer (QO) to him after the 2024 season. 

Players with six years of service time may opt to enter free agency.  The team can attempt to retain the player for one year by extending a qualifying offer for a one year contract.  This year the qualifying offer is $20.350M up from $19.625M last year.  Next year it can be anticipated that this amount will go up to at least $21M. 

The qualifying offer then acts as an option for the player.  If Adames performance level is the same as it has been this year, it could be interesting to see if the Brewers will provide Adames as QO.  And if presented with one, would Adames sign it? He might sign it and become a much more attractive free agent the following year because draft compensation is only available once for for each qualified player.   Would Adames sign the offer or would he forego the qualifying offer in hopes that there is a team that will sign him for more average annual salary or at least more years? If he has a worse offensive year in 2024 than he had in 2023, he very well may wish to sign the offer. 

On its surface the QO system provides small market teams with better draft compensation for losing a player to free agency than it does a larger market team. Great for competitive balance! Or is it?

I give you the cases of Chris Taylor and Avi Garcia following the 2021 season – the last time the Brewers were faces with a QO decision. Taylor received a qualifying offer from the Dodgers. Garcia didn't from the Brewers.

Statistically there wasn’t a whole lot separating these two:

Garcia career: .325 OBP/.431 Slugging/ .756 OPS 2021: .330/.490//820

Taylor career: .337 OBP/ .443 Slugging/ .779 OPS 2021: .344/.438./782

Because of total budget, the Dodgers tagging Taylor for a QO was a no brainer. If he signs they got him for $18.4M which would have been focusing 7% of their $260M budget on one quality player. If the Brewers signed Garcia for the QO amount it would have been focusing 15% of their 120M budget. The risk was double for the Brewers.

Considering this risk differential, I would surmise that the Dodgers would have taken the same risk of giving Garcia a QO and the Brewers would not have given Taylor a QO if the players were on the opposite team.

Taking the risk meant that the Dodgers either get the player back filling an important role on the roster or they get the draft pick compensation. The Brewers got nothing. When you wonder why teams like the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox are able to keep having top ranked farm systems when the system is supposed to be stacked in favor of small market teams, keep this example in mind.

Draft compensation for QO on players entering free agency only matters if a team is willing/able to convey that QO. The bigger budget teams are more likely to maintain players through their last season prior to entering free agency and much more willing to convey a QO.  The intent of the QO system may have been to help small market teams; but it is doing the opposite.

Willie Adames may be the next example of the QO systems negative impact on a small market team.  Year to year, Willie Adames hasn’t been becoming a better baseball player.  If his performance continues on the current trajectory, his projected value for the 2025 season may not be enough for a team like the Brewers to provide a QO. 

The real potential that the Brewers won’t QO Adames has to be part of the equation when the Brewers decide whether to trade him this off season.  Yet another example of a small market team getting squeezed by a system ostensibly designed to benefit them.