Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

The Value of Adrian Houser


Brewers Video

There are reasons Adrian Houser has been a fan favorite.  Anyone that can puke on the back of the mound and then turn around and continue pitching has to be appreciated.  This is the definition of a gamer.  Houser is also the last remaining Brewer from the 2015 fleecing of the Houston Astros in the trade of Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers. That trade tree may continue to bear fruit if Coleman Crow, whom the Brewers got back for Houser and Tyrone Taylor, makes it to The Show.  

Many may be upset with trading Houser and Tyrone Taylor for Coleman Crow.  It was giving up two major leaguers for a low draft choice minor league pitcher who is recovering from Tommy John surgery.  It does seem like a lot to give up.  But the Brewers look at everything as a value proposition.  And they obviously didn’t value Taylor of Houser very highly.  There are legitimate questions about whether the team correctly valued Taylor. He has had so much greater variation in production and has often been hampered by injury.  Could Taylor be a stud for the Mets if he stays healthy? 

Conversely Houser is a pretty known quantity.  Over a seven-year career Houser has an ERA of 4.00 with a WHIP of 1.357. Over the last two years the ERA is 4.43.  Most importantly he has worked an average of 106 innings a year in 2022 and 2023.  His WAR for this time period is an even zero.  And in his age 31 season it is anticipated that he will make $5.6 million. 

Adrian Houser just didn’t have a lot of value.  Especially to a team like the Brewers.  The argument for keeping Houser is that they don’t have other proven pitchers to cover the innings.  But this isn’t how the Brewers are looking at this trade.  With the potential for other trades this off season, the Brewers primary concern isn’t covering innings, it is flexibility and potential.  Houser doesn’t offer the flexibility of having options left.  Most importantly, Houser doesn’t slot in as a workhorse and instead will put extra pressure on the rest of the pitching staff if he misses significant starts like he has the last two years.  

And finally, Houser doesn’t hold any value to the Brewers after this year.  He is lost through free agency prior to the 2025 season.  If the Brewers don’t trade him this off season, the only valuation that would matter to the Brewers is loss opportunity costs when he leaves before the 2025 season. 

In this trade, Adrian Houser held little value to the Brewers.  Perhaps Houser has a little more value to a Mets team looking to fill roster spots with short-term MLB level production while Stearns works his magic during a rebuilding process.  For the Brewers they looked at a player with little value over replacement level and chose to gamble on improving their opportunity profile over the next six years.         

  • Like 1

1 Comment


Recommended Comments

gregmag

Posted

Excellent article. I think this piece perfectly sets out the logic for trading Houser, and it also tells you why the Brewers couldn’t get more for him. I actually think a very similar analysis applies to Taylor, although I agree he has a wider range of possible outcomes. 

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...