Mota lowers ERA by not pitching

[PeaveyFury]

Mota has been fine, even at 3.2 million. Some people's judgment is clouded because he had a great first two months, a terrible middle two months, and has been average since. As Russ said, Mota's really not the problem, it's that he's the 3rd best guy in the pen that's the problem.

[dadofandrew]

I find it odd people think the Brewers top 4/5 bullpen in the NL has been a problem. The 'pen has been much better than most teams, and overall, has been a strength. Every team gives up leads late in games, so pretty much everyone says the bullpen is a problem.

[Fatter than Joey]

Some people's judgment is clouded because he had a great first two months,

 

Mota was horrible in April -- You might want to check your stats before calling people's judgment clouded.

 

Mota has been fine, even at 3.2 million

 

You would resign him?

 

I find it odd people think the Brewers top 4/5 bullpen in the NL has been a problem. The 'pen has been much better than most teams, and overall, has been a strength.

 

Of course this is a poorly qualified statement not defined with any sort of qualifications or stats.

 

In what regard has the BP pitched top 4/5? Certainly not in K/BB nor in OPS or BS. I'd be curious to know how you come to this conclusion. My guess is you are using stats that include how the BP has pitched in garbage time -- which is irrelevant to this discussion.

 

Lastly, expectations need to be addressed -- certainly we have a better BP than most teams, but most teams are not leaning on their BP to get to 90 wins and into the playoffs.

[dadofandrew]

Garbage time includes how the bullpen pitched, you know, all the time. Using anything else is similar to using "clutch" hitting numbers, a waste of time.

 

I'd certainly consider bringing Mota back, though I'd hate to go more than a year or two at most. If he wishes, he'll certainly pitch somewhere next year, as he can go 2 innings and K's a lot of batters. I'd say up to a dozen teams will talk to him.

[PeaveyFury]

Mota was horrible in April -- You might want to check your stats before calling people's judgment clouded.

 

A 3.00 ERA is horrible?

 

You would resign him?

 

Considering the state of our bullpen, it certainly deserves some consideration. I'd probably offer him arby.

[Fatter than Joey]

A 3.00 ERA is horrible?

 

No it's not. However, I would never use ERA to judge a reliever's performance especially over 12 IP.

 

In April -- Mota pitched 12 innings gave up 12 hits and 10 BBs. That's pretty crappy in my book, especially if he inherited runners. If you want to say he got lucky, then I am OK with that -- I don't think he pitched well at all though.

 

Garbage time includes how the bullpen pitched, you know, all the time.

 

False. There is a big difference in your BP pitching with a 5 run deficit in the 4th inning, compared to your BP pitching in the 8th to protect a lead.

 

Using anything else is similar to using "clutch" hitting numbers, a waste of time.

 

Again False. Team batting clutchiness is quite a bit different as every batter is going to rotate through "clutch" situations. In most BPs some pitchers will only be used to protect leads, and some will only be used in "garbage innings". Seeing how your BP does protecting leads is certainly something worth extracting and differentiating than when your BP is "eating innings". That is to say, managers can control what pitchers see what "clutchy" situations, unlike batters.

 

The only waste of time so far is this statement:

 

I find it odd people think the Brewers top 4/5 bullpen in the NL has been a problem.

 

which has no qualifications.

[dadofandrew]

Do runs count more in the 8th than they do the 6th? It's exactly the same argument used by believers in "clutch" hitters, that somehow, the 4th run in a 4-3 game meant more than the first.

 

I use ERA, as I do not blame the reliever for coming in with men on base.

[JJHardy7]

I bring Mota back. If we can get him on a one-year deal for his salary this year or less, I'm all for bringing him back. I agree with signing him for just a year. I think the bullpen will be a strength next year if other moves are made. Give me Torres, Dillard, Stetter, Mota, Riske (I think the injury was why he was crappy at times), Shouse, and my surprise success guy -- Bateman -- and I'd take that. Add one or two players there (possibly removing some) and I think that's a pretty decent bullpen at a pretty low cost overall.

[dadofandrew]

JJ, you forgot Carlos, unless you see him dealt.

[Fatter than Joey]

Do runs count more in the 8th than they do the 6th? It's exactly the same argument used by believers in "clutch" hitters, that somehow, the 4th run in a 4-3 game meant more than the first.

 

There are some relievers that never pitch in one run games, and some pitchers that only pitch in one run (or close games) -- starting batters on the other hand play in all games. Comparing this to "clutch" arguments is a poor analogy.

 

I use ERA, as I do not blame the reliever for coming in with men on base.

 

The relievers job is to prevent runners from scoring.

 

Using ERA is your prerogative -- but to state that "the Brewers" have a top four BP as an authoritative statement, based on ERA is quite a reach -- They certainly are not a top 4 BP in OPS, HR rate, K/BB or other measures. Certainly they are not terrible, but I think they should be retooled.

 

It's pretty slippery to try to base future performance off of ERA -- I think this BP should have given up more runs in all probability -- I think a pitcher who gives up 12 hits and 10 BBs in 12 IP more often than not is going to have an ERA over 3.00 -- Mota got lucky.

[Ennder]

In what regard has the BP pitched top 4/5? Certainly not in K/BB nor in OPS or BS. I'd be curious to know how you come to this conclusion. My guess is you are using stats that include how the BP has pitched in garbage time -- which is irrelevant to this discussion

 

Top 4-5 is extreme but it has hardly been a big issue.

 

In the NL they are..

 

4th in ERA against

10th in OPS against

6th in SV%

6th in pen support (percentage of runs allowed inherited from starters)

8th in WXR (win expectancy added for RPs)

 

The bullpen has not been the problem.

[MHgb]

A reliever protecting any lead or to prevent the game from getting any farther away is important. 4-run lead, bottom of the ninth, 2 outs, nobody on...that would qualify as garbage time I would assume, but the outcome was not good. So at some point you would probably argue that when a couple runners got on, it's no longer garbage time. Well then the relievers should get credit when they preserve any lead or deficit, great or small, as well.

[JJHardy7]

JJ, you forgot Carlos, unless you see him dealt.

 

I'm thinking that as of now he may be a starter next year. That of course is up in the air based on free agents and trade possibilities.

[LouisEly]

Folks, I did not say that Mota has been great.

 

I just said that based on how he has pitched in August and September he had earned the right for people to get off of his back.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Folks, I did not say that Mota has been great.

 

I just said that based on how he has pitched in August and September he had earned the right for people to get off of his back.

There is no such thing as the sort of "right" of which you speak. If anybody disagrees, s/he should google "George Carlin you have no rights" and check out the youtube clip (as long as you're not at work or around sensitive ears), then realize that the notion of rights Carlin lays out right at the end of the clip is basically identical to the notion Thomas Hobbes had when he coined the term (at least in it's modern philosophical form). Everything anybody else has attempted to do with the concept of rights since then has been wishful thinking. If you don't believe me, allow me to demonstrate:

 

Guillermo Mota as an ugly, sucky schlub, perenially overvalued by baseball men who fetishize radar gun readings and can't figure out why someone with such nasty stuff should be so useless at getting hitters out. He has been in MLB about 4 years longer than he needed to be, despite the fact that he's been lousy his entire career, with the narrow exception of a 1.5 year anomoly when he was a quality setup man in LA (and very likely sharing needles with Gagne). This 1.5 year anomoly has snowed a long line of GMs into acquiring Mota, and a similarly long line of managers into believing he'd be a good option in high leverage short relief situations. Said beliefs have gone a long way toward costing a fair number of these poor fools their jobs. I do not care how well he has pitched over his last 20 IP, I still fervently hope he dies of syphilis.

 

I can say all of that if I feel like it, and nothing Mota can do can earn any sort of anything that would prevent that. Besides, even if that was possible, 20 IP isn't enough to do it. Heck, Prince Fielder had one of the top 5 offensive seasons in franchise history last year, and that obviously didn't earn him a right to avoid an endless stream of fat jokes 'round these parts in '08, just because his performance fell off a little bit.

 

On the level, all the good will Mota will get from me is that I'm quite glad he didn't torpedo the whole darn season pitching all these important innings lately (e.g. the way he torpedoed the Mets' season last year).

[JJHardy7]

I do not care how well he has pitched over his last 20 IP, I still fervently hope he dies of syphilis.

 

Wow. I think you might be taking some hate out on Mota. That's a terrible thing to post.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I wasn't really being serious. Guess I could have made that more obvious. That whole paragraph was supposed to be over-the-top belligerence to demonstrate that Mota doesn't have any right not to be criticized -- nor can anyone -- since I was able to say that. You can say that I was wrong to say it, but that doesn't mean I didn't have the "right" to say it (in Hobbesian terms, a right is basically a power). So if Mota has the "right" to have people get off his back, but I have the "right" to say something as awful as I hope he dies of syphilis, where does that leave us?

 

There were parts of that diatribe that were more sincere than others, but the end bit about syphilis was decorative. I apologize if I've offended anyone.

[LouisEly]

As of June 22nd, George Carlin is no longer relevant.

 

You must be a big fan of his to go off on such a tangent on a play on words. What I was getting at is that putting a big red X over his picture or writing on top of it "NOOOO" in big red letters is overreacting a bit.

[CheezWizHed]

You would resign him?

Actually, I hope we don't have to. My hope is we add higher quality at the top of our bullpen and remove lower quality (high cost) at the end of the bullpen.

 

Torres

Riske

McClung

Carlos V

Stetter/Shouse - not that we should only keep on lefty, but we normally only seem to...

Dillard

 

But if something were to happen (trade) were we needed someone at the bottom half of the BP and we could afford it, I would resign him. But knowing typical Brewer economics, we most likely won't

 

I still fervently hope he dies of syphilis.

Completely uncalled for.

[CheezWizHed]

Brawndo the Thirst Mutilator wrote:

---

You can say that I was wrong to say it, but that doesn't mean I didn't have the "right" to say it (in Hobbesian terms, a right is basically a power). So if Mota has the "right" to have people get off his back, but I have the "right" to say something as awful as I hope he dies of syphilis, where does that leave us?

Actually posting here is a privilege, not a right. I could tell you were trying to be over the top, but it just went too far.

 

If you follow Hobbesian philosophy, make sure you take Bill Watterson's approach and balance Hobbes with Calvin. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif