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Journalist Speculation -- Red Sox to target Gallardo via trade


Before the link, a reminder:

 

Yovani salary info:

 

13:$7.75M, 14:$11.25M, 15:$13M club option ($0.6M buyout)

 

Gallardo may void option by earning 6 points based on 2010-14 Cy Young vote (5 points for 1st place, 3 points for 2nd place, 1 point for 3rd place)

 

full no-trade clause for 2010-12 seasons, may block deals to 10 clubs thereafter

 

***

 

Looking ahead at potential pitching trade targets for Red Sox

 

Among the few pitchers who might fit the bill in future years are Milwaukee’s Yovani Gallardo, Oakland’s Jarrod Parker and Arizona’s Ian Kennedy. Beyond that, the pickings appear slim — especially for Boston, since it’s unlikely the pitching-rich but revenue-poor Tampa Bay Rays are going to send them Jeremy Hellickson or David Price unless for a king’s ransom.

 

Gallardo’s Milwaukee Brewers could find themselves in rebuilding mode quickly if they can’t rebound from last year’s 83-win season. Gallardo would have two years of contractual control left during which he’d be 28 and 29 before hitting free agency, making him a prime trade target.

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Boston writers are notorious for this mindless speculation regarding availability of Brewer players. Gallardo is under Brewer control through 2015 (at bargain rates by ace of staff standards) and is now the clear cut ace of the staff. One of the scenarios of the Brewers falling out of the race would be if Gallardo became ineffective or hurt. Assuming he's healthy and pitching well, it's not likely the Brewers would be that far out of it or so negative to their 2014 and 2015 outlook to entertain scenarios that would negatively affect their chances in those years.
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Brewer Fanatic Contributor

East Coast Sports Writer Template 2.0:

 

[big market team] is targeting [small market team] and is looking to acquire [super star player from small market team] because [insert random reason].

 

List of possible reasons:

1. [small market team] only won [wins for small market team in previous season (note: number is irrelevant)] and is looking to rebuild.

2. [super star player from small market team] couldn't resist the allure of playing for [big market team] after muddling along for years at [small market team].

3. revenue poor [small market team] couldn't possibly afford [super star player from small market team].

4. we are [big market team] and no one cares about [small market team]. Do they even have any fans?

5. no one wants [small market team] in the WS because who would watch it?

6. it makes it so much easier for East Coast Sports Network to cover all the good players if they are on one of 4 teams.

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Boston is still ticked off because the Braves bolted there for Milwaukee of all places. They feel slighted because the NY teams went to glamorous places like LA and SF.

 

What do you bet this writer just discovered Gallardo existed in the past couple a months and wondered why the Sox hadn't gone after him?

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It is likely that this is simply an East coast writer making stuff up, but there is certainly the possibility that as soon as next offseason the Brewers will have an excess of starting pitching. They could look to trade Gallardo because they have other quality options playing for league minimum, and Gallardo could bring back a return like nate82 listed above. That's really the epitome of "cycling talent" and "trading from strength" that many on this board wish the Brewers would do more often.

 

When I looked at the MLB sites, the title on the Brewers page was "Peralta cracks top 100," while Boston's site beamed "Red Sox system loaded with six top prospects." Our best guy would be around #4/5 for Boston. We need this to change if we want to be competitive going forward, and something like a Gallardo trade mid-2013 or in the offseason prior to 2014 could bring back phenomenal talent.

 

It's probably more likely that we'll keep Gallardo while moving promising starters to the bullpen, but it's fun to think that we could take advantage of a strength and land a couple of Top 50 prospects for someone we could replace in-house.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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I like the guys the Brewers have coming along too, but Gallardo is set to earn $24.25 million over 2014 and 2015 which for a guy with his production is still a huge bargain. It's not like he'd be the only marketable guy on this current rotation either if you needed room for a Jungmann or a Hellweg.

 

They don't hand out trophies for having the most prospects in your organization. It's about winning games at the big league level. Gallardo is a proven winner and doesn't blow the budget. Greinke brought back a pretty decent return for a 2 month rental. Oh, he helped them win 96 games before departing. Gallardo is really no different. He'll still have value in 2015 if the Brewers are out of it then. I don't see him holding back anyone.

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If the Brewers don't plan on resigning Yo, I would definitely look into trading him in a year or two. I hate losing guys for nothing or only trading them with 3 months left when the return is significantly less. He would have a lot of value and if you can score some legit impact talent, I'd be all over it.
This is Jack Burton in the Pork Chop Express, and I'm talkin' to whoever's listenin' out there.
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A return like what the Rays got for Shields is something that I would be looking at to get if the Brewers do decide and trade Gallardo a year from now or whenever. The Red Sox actually make a lot of sense as a trading partner then.

 

Bogaerts should start in AA this year and will be in AAA by the end or the middle of the season. This would then make him MLB ready for the 2013 or 2014 season which would almost be perfect for the Brewers. Matt Barnes will probably start out in AA this year for the Red Sox and again should be ready for the 2013 or 2014 season. Both Bogaerts and Barnes would be mid season call ups in 2013 which would be the earliest that they would get to the majors 2014 is probably more of a safe bet on those two. Pat Light is probably the furthest player away but I like him a lot and he should be a rather good #2/3 but will probably only be a #3/4 starter. Garin Cecchini is behind Bogaerts and the earliest you could expect him would be in 2015.

 

If the Brewers were to get Bogaerts, Barnes, and Light for Gallardo I think you have to do that trade. Getting one grade A player, a B+ player, and a B- player for one guy is something small and mid market teams have to do. You have to take the risk here and hope that one or two of these guys pan out as their low cost service years are greater than two or three years of Gallardo.

 

I believe the 2015 roster would look rather nice with:

 

C: Lucroy, Maldonado

1B: Morris

2B: Gennett

SS: Segura

3B: Bogaerts

LF: Braun

CF: Schafer

RF: Roache

 

SP: Rogers, Peralta, Fiers, Barnes, Jungmann, Scarpetta, Nelson, Thornburg, Light, +more

 

There is definitely enough depth at SP where the Brewers could trade a Scarpetta, Jungmann, Thornburg or a Fiers for a bat if it is needed. The reality of the situation for the Brewers is that the Brewers need an impact player in the minors and right now the Brewers are void of that talent at this time especially for position players. It makes sense for the Brewers to trade Gallardo after this year and it makes sense to trade him to the Red Sox as they have a need for a pitcher like Gallardo and they have the prospects to do so.

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Trading for Bogaerts would seem to mean that Weeks or Ramirez would be traded. Next season, Weeks will have 2 years / $22.5MM on his contract and Ramirez will have 1 year / $20MM.

 

In a perfect scenario, we could get something like the return Nate is suggesting in a Gallardo trade. We'd put Bogaerts at SS, moving Segura to 2B, and trade Weeks for a package which would include a 3B prospect to take over when Ramirez's contract is up. Barnes projects to be a top-of-the-rotation starter and all of our SP prospects will have another year of development, so hopefully the rotation would be a plus even though it would lack the "proven ace." With so many pre-arby guys, we'd have plenty of money to spend to fill in holes.

 

Some would consider this a "massive rebuild," and trades which include multiple moving pieces are hard to pull off, but if it worked out, we could have a large core of young, talented, inexpensive player to complement Braun and Lucroy. Lock Bogaerts, Segura and others up to Lucroy-type deals and that core could be together for a long time.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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All sounds good monty57, but that would be completely out of character for Melvin, who's history suggests he'll wait until the final years of contracts to trade productive players as in Carlos Lee, and Greinke, or even wait and take the picks. Melvin didn't even flinch when there was talk about a Daniel Hudson and/or Gordon Beckham offer for Fielder in 2010, a year the Brewers were well out of it. Should Gallardo stay healthy and productive through 2015, he'll most certainly get a QO from Brewers and hence at least bring back a pick. East Coast writers suggesting that Gallardo is available need to take a closer look at how Melvin operates.
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I agree Briggs, and that worries me. The Brewers now have an expensive, aging core and don't have a strong enough farm to keep them competitive as guys like Hart, Weeks and Ramirez go away. For the past few years, Melvin has been able to fix some holes with free agent patches because of the strong core he had from the drafts in which the Brewers had top draft picks. Adding a Ramirez won't be as helpful to a lineup consisting of Schafer, Gennet and Segura as it was to a lineup we had going into last season. We won't be able to make the Greinke/Marcum trades again, because we don't have good enough prospects to pull off the trade, and we won't get top 10 picks to stock the system because our team is good enough to hover around .500.

 

Looking a few years down the road, the only path I see to a brighter future is taking advantage of the trade chips we have to add more young talent. We've pretty much lost that ability with Hart due to his injury, and Braun's not going anywhere. It wouldn't make sense to trade our good young players like Lucroy and Segura. Gomez could probably net a decent return, given the market for the Uptons and Bourn, but it once again appears that we're in "go for it" mode, and won't do anything that may be perceived to in any way weaken our MLB roster, so I doubt Gomez will be traded even though Schafer is ready to take over. No one will want Ramirez after this season on a one-year/$20MM contract.

 

So, if we're looking at what moves we could potentially make next offseason in the hopes that we will still have a chance at watching winning Brewers baseball for the next 5-7 years, we're pretty much relegated to looking at what we can do with Weeks and Gallardo. It's probably more likely we'll do some minor Estrada-for-35-year-old-CF trade, but I sometimes like to think of moves we could make that would really make a difference, even though you're probably right and Melvin will almost certainly not do anything I might suggest.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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The Brewers prospect list is poor right now partially because of trades going for it, partially because we graduated a number of good prospects last year and partially because the system is just young and young players don't get good ratings unless they are super star can't miss types which are rare.

 

The thing that impresses me out of all of this is that the writer considers the Brewers winning 83 games to be a disappointment that we have to rebound from. It says a lot about the franchise that teams look at 83 wins for the team as a poor season instead of looking at 73 wins as a good one.

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Monty57. The aging corps has to be taken advantage of the next two seasons to try to win. Trading your ace for prospects will help you in 2017, but kill your chances now. A lot can happen in the system between now and 2015. Look what 2 months of Greinke brought back. Assuming health, Gallardo will still have plenty of value in 2015. Hart, Weeks, Gomez and Ramirez departures the next couple years frees up tons of cash. Brewers won't sit on that money if their everyday prospects aren't good enough. They look to be in pretty decent shape going forward with pitching that's reasonable. They may use some of that to deal for an everyday prospect too. They can add a free agent to two to fill in around Braun, Lucroy and Segura. You don't need All Stars at every position to win. They won 96 with Betancourt at SS remember.
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While Gallardo's value is higher now then it ever will be, the Brewers are not in a position to trade a SP. Any speculation I'm doing would be for next offseason, or maybe mid-season 2013. By next offseason, we will hopefully have an excess of MLB-ready SP. At that point, we will probably either move a starting-capable pitcher to the bullpen, reducing his value, we'll trade a lesser-quality SP in a minor move that will help us for a season, but won't have a lasting effect, or we'll leave MLB-ready guys in AAA until they're in their late 20's and have lost "prospect value." I'm just exploring the option of trading the most valuable chip who could return a couple of top prospects at positions of need. Trade the expensive guy at a position of strength to get multiple good inexpensive guys at positions of need.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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The Brewers prospect list is poor right now partially because of trades going for it, partially because we graduated a number of good prospects last year and partially because the system is just young and young players don't get good ratings unless they are super star can't miss types which are rare.

Ennder, granted it's only 1/3 of the case you presented, but the only non-MLB guy left in the minors or still a legit prospect from the "going for it" trades (assuming you mean Greinke & Marcum) is Odorizzi. Cain & Escobar are starting in KC, Lawrie is starting in TOR, & Jeffress can't pitch with enough control to stick in the bigs or pile up even respectable AAA stats. So unless you're putting a lot of weight on Odorizzi, those trades have precious little to do with the prospect list being "poor" right now.

 

Let's not forget that our trading Greinke essentially brought guys back who parallel 3 of the 4 we traded to get Greinke in the first place (Segura/Escobar = promising young SS's, Hellweg/Odorizzi = high-end power pitchers, Pena/Jeffress = promising strong arms with suspect control).

 

As Jon Sickels' prospect analysis pointed out recently (I don't remember if it was his or someone else's), the Brewers don't lack solid prospects, just blue-chippers.

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I can't stand the East Coast media. Do they honestly think that the Red Sox are one pitcher away? That team is a mess and clearly is the worst in their division. As for the Brewers, if you trade Gallardo, you may as well trade Braun too.

 

Not really. Once Gallardo's contract is up he is gone as the Brewers will not be able to afford him. If the Brewers are not able to get a contract extension with Gallardo before the end of this season the better option would be to trade him away for some talent that will help. The Red Sox are always just one player away from competing as they can open up their pocket books and get anyone that they want. Plus Gallardo can become a FA after the 2014 season if the next two seasons he either wins the CY Young award in 2013 and finished third in 2014 or finishes 2nd and 3rd in 2013 and 2014. If he doesn't the Brewers have a 2015 option at $13m. So the Brewers have 2 more years of Gallardo and then he is gone. Now should the Brewers trade Braun then also?

 

It makes more sense to trade Gallardo next off season and if the Red Sox are willing to trade for him you take the two prospects I suggested and you don't look back. This is close to what the Red Sox did when getting Beckett though they had a little bit of a better team when they did that trade.

 

Also I am not willing to give Gallardo anything close to what he will want and that is going to be something close to what Greinke and Cain got. Gallardo is definitely not worth what either of those pitchers got.

 

I really do not get this argument that if you trade one player you have to trade another because why exactly? Trading Gallardo adds talent to the Brewers and gives the Brewers a higher chance of winning with Braun than it will by losing Gallardo to FA and getting a comp pick. I do not want to see the Brewers extending Gallardo at all unless it is a team friendly deal and I just do not see Gallardo doing that. A player normally does not take two team friendly deals in their career and I don't see Gallardo doing this either. Gallardo in FA is going to get Greinke money type and it will probably be a lot more per year. To extend Gallardo right now it would cost the Brewers at least $20-24m a year. Do you really want to be paying Gallardo $20+m a year?

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Before the season, you simply do not trade the guy who is far and away your ace if you have any aspirations of competing. I'm not ready to rebuild yet, and to me trading Gallardo would be a rebuild move (Full disclosure... I do not believe that the concept of 'retooling' as you go- getting younger and cheaper while remaining competitive- is realistic in MLB). If you are rebuilding, you may as well trade Braun as well, as he'd be in his mid 30's before the team was ready to compete again. Now, if the Brewers completely tank the first half of the season away, the idea of trading Gallardo becomes more reasonable.
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First, I can't see Bogaerts being traded away for a Gallardo. By mid season this year he will be in the top 10 talk in prospect rankings. Gallardo is good/great but he's not worthy of a top ten prospect a year away from playing in the Bigs.

Barnes could make sense but only in the realm of Boston magically competing and wanting Gallardo to push them over the top. The trade fodder for Boston attaining Gallardo just doesn't make sense when you have your top two prospects joining the team the time Gallardo becomes a FA. I'd fully plan on attaining Gallardo via FA building along with Bogaerts and Barnes. And I forgot about Bradley.

Gallardo to me just isn't enough to make a team trade away a core of players ready to help your team in a year for. This isn't Halladay,Lee,Sabathia we're talking. Gallardo has 4 Career CGs and only 1 in last 2seasons. It's not like he's suddenly going to start pitching CGs now in his career moving forward.

 

And I'm not trying to say Gallardo isn't worth top 50prospects its just Boston's top 3 are top 40 and by year's end(with progression) will be top 25s. These arent prospects blocked at their position either so there's no need to trade them away.

In the end, I don't see Boston being a good trade partner. If their top 3 were an added year away from expected making the Bigs then yes. The timing of it all just doesn't fit to me.

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I just don't see the Brewers dealing Gallardo at all, even if the team is tanking. It's just not a Melvin type of move to make.

 

No it's not. If the team is tanking, it's most likely going to be caused by injuries to key guys, more issues in the bullpen or early struggles by the guys that start the year in the rotation. All of those will be looked upon as fixable at least in time for 2014. Injured players will heal. Closers/relievers can be found, and there are young guys behind the guys that start this year in the rotation. Plus there is salary room for additions next off season. Trading Gallardo 2 years in advance of his contract ending just isn't the way Melvin thinks.

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Trading Gallardo 2 years in advance of his contract ending just isn't the way Melvin thinks.

 

No it's not. But if the Brewers starting pitching prospects make enough noise it's not out of the realm of possibility that Melvin trade Gallaro with one year left on his deal. It'd almost have to be the ideal scenario but if 5 of Peralta, Thornburg, Fiers, Rogers, Jungmann, Bradley, Nelson, Burgos, and Helleg can form a solid rotation in 2014 they may be able to move Gallardo and help restock the system.

 

Unlikely though. Melvin should look at what TB got for Shields and really rethink his stance on his guys though.

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