J.D. Martinez to Diamondbacks for three prospects

[Matt Breen]

Arizona sends prospects Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and Jose King to Detroit. None of the prospects ranked in the Astros Top 30 on MLB Pipeline prior to 2017. Detroit is off the hook for the remainder of Martinez's salary.

 

Hot Stove is heating up.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/tigers-trade-jd-martinez-diamondbacks.html

[Matt Breen]

Seems like a light return for what might be the best bat on the market. Dodgers should have made a move for Martinez, as they sometimes struggle against lefties, and Martinez kills southpaws.

[Lee16]

Detroit got back absolute garbage. I mean, pure junk. Arizona's GM should have been holding a gun and wearing a ski mask.

[Ennder]

The return looks light but I think it is just the market adjusting to not getting compensation picks for rentals anymore. I think we are going to see the value of half season players go down quite a bit and more and more players being traded with 1+ full season left on their contracts.

[Greenleaf1]

Would've expected a top 100-ish prospect in there, but none of those guys were particularly high rated going into the season and none of them are having particularly amazing seasons either.

 

Tigers got so busy holding the door shut on Fulmer that Martinez crept out through the window.

[MadThinker88]

The return looks light but I think it is just the market adjusting to not getting compensation picks for rentals anymore. I think we are going to see the value of half season players go down quite a bit and more and more players being traded with 1+ full season left on their contracts.

 

I don't believe that is the reason.

 

Teams acquiring players during their final contract year haven't been getting draft pick compensation since the prior CA agreement (4+ years ago).

 

The current CBA made 2 changes to the qualifying offers: 1) players can only be extend a QA 1 time during their career & 2) If the QA is rejected, the team signing the player does not lose its 1st round pick & the team losing the player does not get a pick between rounds 1 & 2 of the next draft.

[OnTheBlack]

Arizona sends prospects Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and Jose King to Detroit. None of the prospects ranked in the Astros Top 30 on MLB Pipeline prior to 2017. Detroit is off the hook for the remainder of Martinez's salary.

 

Hot Stove is heating up.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/tigers-trade-jd-martinez-diamondbacks.html

 

 

Lugo was 4th in the D-backs top 15 and Alcantara was 15th. A pretty insignificant return, especially for the Dbacks system though.

[jerichoholicninja]

This is just the league allowing the DBacks to recoup from Dave Stewarts stupidity.

 

But seriously this seems like a pointless move for the Tigers. Not that we need him but we easily could have blown that package out of the water and not hurt the system at all.

[Ennder]

The return looks light but I think it is just the market adjusting to not getting compensation picks for rentals anymore. I think we are going to see the value of half season players go down quite a bit and more and more players being traded with 1+ full season left on their contracts.

 

I don't believe that is the reason.

 

Teams acquiring players during their final contract year haven't been getting draft pick compensation since the prior CA agreement (4+ years ago).

 

The current CBA made 2 changes to the qualifying offers: 1) players can only be extend a QA 1 time during their career & 2) If the QA is rejected, the team signing the player does not lose its 1st round pick & the team losing the player does not get a pick between rounds 1 & 2 of the next draft.

 

 

Part of this change happened 4 years ago but part of it starts next season.. This is almost certainly the change in value. Players in the last year of their contract have dropped in value immensely. The entire reason the Royals haven't sold anyone is because the new system cripples their player value because most of their stars are in their last season.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/210125462/details-of-mlb-mlbpa-labor-agreement/

 

III. DRAFT PICK COMPENSATION

A. Clubs may not tender a Qualifying Offer to a player who has previously received a Qualifying Offer.

B. The time period during which a player can accept a Qualifying Offer will be extended from 7 to 10 days.

C. Clubs signing a Free Agent subject to compensation will no longer forfeit a first round selection, but will be subject to the following:

A non-market disqualified Revenue Sharing Payee Club shall forfeit its third highest remaining selection in the next Rule 4 Draft.

A CBT Payor shall forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest remaining selections in the next Rule 4 Draft and shall have its International Signing Bonus Pool (described below) reduced by $1,000,000 in the next full Signing Period.

All other Clubs shall forfeit their second-highest remaining selection in the next Rule 4 Draft and shall have their International Signing Bonus Pool reduced by $500,000 in the next full Signing Bonus Period.

All forfeited International Signing Bonus Pool monies will be distributed equally among all other Clubs. Competitive Balance Selections will be exempt from forfeiture.

D. A Former Club of a Free Agent subject to draft pick compensation will receive the following:

A non-market disqualified Revenue Sharing Payee Club shall receive a selection immediately following the first round of the draft if the player signs a contract with a total guarantee of $50 million or more.

A CBT Payor Club shall receive a draft selection immediately following the fourth round of the next Rule 4 Draft.

All other Former Clubs shall receive a selection immediately following the Competitive Balance Round B of the next Rule 4 Draft (which follows the second round).

 

The value of a rental player is at an all time low in baseball.

[KeithStone53151]

The return is incredibly light, but not many contenders needed outfield help... so very few bidders to drive up the price. Detroit saved their owners a few bucks and solidified their upper minors middle infield depth. There's value in that, especially for the owner. Heck, maybe they get lucky and one of these prospects sees some time on an mlb bench as a utility man.

[patrickgpe]

Detroit got back absolute garbage. I mean, pure junk. Arizona's GM should have been holding a gun and wearing a ski mask.

i miss dave stewart

[A Swing and A Drive]

WOW!

 

Tigers got absolutely fleeced on this one.

 

J.D. Martinez was the most valuable rental hitter on the market.

 

Dude absolutely rakes when healthy.

 

Moving to Chase Field will only help.

[JosephC]

If one projects Martinez as a 1.7 WAR player from now until the end of the year his value is approximately 14.552 million. Nevermind his salary since he is a rental.

 

I'd put prospect surplus values on the returning players as follows:

-Lugo = 7.49 million

-Alcantara = 5.35 million

-King = 2.14 million

Total = 14.98 million

 

Even though the values are pretty even, if I was a Tiger's fan I would still be thinking that they could have gotten a better deal for a hitter like Martinez. But the numbers do demonstrate that there is a reasonable chance there wasn't going to be a better offer out there. I probably would have just kept Martinez for the rest of the year and taken the compensatory pick. Their scouts/statistical models apparently really like Lugo/Alcantara/King, and/or they made this move because they are anticipating infield problems in the near future which isn't crazy when looking at their roster.

[monty57]

Don't forget that Mike Ilitch was willing to lose millions of dollars a year in order to try to win a World Series before he died. He died in February of this year, so the new owner (Mike's son Christopher) probably isn't as willing to lose millions of dollars a year. Therefore, shedding salary is probably a pretty high priority right now to try to get out of the red.

 

That doesn't mean that he shouldn't take the best package offered, but a deal was probably going to be done regardless of what the best offer was. Plus, doing the deal a couple of weeks early would save quite a bit of extra money on Martinez's $11.75M deal.

 

Regardless, he's going to have a tough road ahead with all the terrible contracts the team has on the books going forward.

[brewcrewdue80]

Think about this for 1 minute...The Mets gave up Michael Fulmer for a rental of Cespedes. How stacked was their pitching? wow. I'd have thought Detroit would get more....If this is what Martinez is worth, I've been way wrong on what Braun's value is

[mlloyd10]

Think about this for 1 minute...The Mets gave up Michael Fulmer for a rental of Cespedes. How stacked was their pitching? wow. I'd have thought Detroit would get more....If this is what Martinez is worth, I've been way wrong on what Braun's value is

 

Martinez is better than Braun

[Ennder]

Martinez WAR by season for the past 3 years. 1.6, 1.8, 5

 

Braun's WAR by season for the past 4 years. .3, 4.4, 3.8

 

Martinez is a couple of years younger and has no long term contract impact. J.D. isn't better than Braun but his context is better.

[Greenleaf1]

If one projects Martinez as a 1.7 WAR player from now until the end of the year his value is approximately 14.552 million. Nevermind his salary since he is a rental.

 

I'd put prospect surplus values on the returning players as follows:

-Lugo = 7.49 million

-Alcantara = 5.35 million

-King = 2.14 million

Total = 14.98 million

 

Even though the values are pretty even, if I was a Tiger's fan I would still be thinking that they could have gotten a better deal for a hitter like Martinez. But the numbers do demonstrate that there is a reasonable chance there wasn't going to be a better offer out there. I probably would have just kept Martinez for the rest of the year and taken the compensatory pick. Their scouts/statistical models apparently really like Lugo/Alcantara/King, and/or they made this move because they are anticipating infield problems in the near future which isn't crazy when looking at their roster.

 

The value of Martinez in a playoff year amplifies whatever objective WAR total he puts up for the rest of the year. You can't just reduce a trade to expected value and determine whether or not that makes it a fair trade.

 

We blatantly lost the Sabathia trade by that thinking and I don't regret that trade at all.